Real Estate Crash thread

[AdironRider]

I respectfully disagree. If you put hundreds of new free market apartments in Summit County I would expect that front range demand would immediately swallow them. So many people would jump at the chance to rent them as weekend accomodation.

There would have to be restrictions on who is allowed to rent them in order for them to serve laborers.



The population of Bozeman/Gallatin, by 2041, will equal the size of Salt Lake City

(Guessing this has been posted before)

Attachment 500521

This is just blatant sensationalism from the Mountain Journal, which consists of entirely NIMBYs.

3 million people is larger than Chicago as of the 2020 census. No way that happens by 2065 in fucking Bozeman.

[Kevo]

Human population is set to be more than 10 billion people by 2065.

[AdironRider]

I know it feels like every mountain town is bursting at the seams, but they pale in comparison to virtually any major city.

Houston added the population equivalent of two Bozeman's last year alone. We are all biased towards outdoor activities here, but the vast majority of people would rather buy a 3/2 near shopping in TX than deal with our bullshit on a day to day basis.

[skaredshtles]

For a 2br condo right on the highway in Silverthorne? $1M is Stupid money for that.

People buying them would disagree.

[fastfred]

Building like crazy here in Summit, especially Silverthorne. Lots of million dollar condos which is so surreal to anyone who has lived here for more than a few years. But they also built a ton of affordable housing. Some pretty good deals if I was in the market. $450k for a 3bed 3 bath w/ 2 car garage?!?! Hell yeah! If I was a single dude and rented two rooms out I’d be semi retired. Of course it will never appreciate more than 3% per year, so the poors stay poor. But if you fit the requirements it isn’t a bad deal. Pretty funny when you drive through these places and everyone has a Sprinter and/or raft/snowmobile trailer in the driveway. Good for them. I would totally live there if I didnt already have my own thing goin on.

so much to unpack here but yeah affordable housing ain't the section 8 projects it used to be

I do applaud aspen and summit county who have really done an A plus job at creating affordable deed restricted housing every city and every resort town should be looking into their template

the fucked thing about summit is the nepotism and the ability to milk the system
aspen as cruel as their system is it's pretty black and white and the rules are super strict with no fooling around

meanwhile in summit you can own a deed restricted home, a deed restricted condo in summit county that you rent out to a "local workforce person" setting your own rental rate and then own a beach condo in florida that you short term don't belive me its true but hey it's a game

been laughing about the two million dollar fixer uppers around summit county

[Toadman]

Human population is set to be more than 10 billion people by 2065.

So, 3 million of that 10 billion are going to move to MT. Seems reasonable.

[Name Redacted]

People buying them would disagree.

I could spend my millions so much better than them.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Yeah the whole SLC by 2041 thing is kinda funny. Yeah sure it's growing, but as byates said it will take a ton of really rich people to sell and start plowing roads with very imaginative names like "65000th" street or whatever the fuck you guys got going on in Salt Lake.

[Kevo]

The article specifically says SLC city limits, not the metro area.

The projection is for roughly 200k people in the greater Bozeman area, not 3 million.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

We'll run out of water way before that happens.

[WMD]

Yeah the whole SLC by 2041 thing is kinda funny. Yeah sure it's growing, but as byates said it will take a ton of really rich people to sell and start plowing roads with very imaginative names like "65000th" street or whatever the fuck you guys got going on in Salt Lake.

The headline is sensational, but the article isn't. They are talking Salt Lake City proper, not the suburbs. SLC in 2022 was about 205,000. At an annual growth rate of 3%, population will double every ~24 years.

"Bozeman/Gallatin County presently is inhabited by around 105,000 human denizens. One of every ten Montanans dwells here. But within 24 years, given a three percent growth rate, the number will double.

"It means that Bozeman/Gallatin, by 2041, will equal the size of Salt Lake City proper (minus its suburbs). Even more sobering, in less than half a century, 2065, based on the same rate of annual growth, there will be a population of 420,000 (equal to all the residents of the entire Greater Yellowstone today)."

[byates1]

Better open 100 more artisan distillerys these fkin ppl will need somewhere to pay 30$ per drink

[Bunion 2020]

We'll run out of water way before that happens.

That has been addressed by piping water back uphill from Canyon Ferry. I think back on how uncrowded America was in 1964 and can easily see the Gallatin Valley with that many people. We are so fucked.

Oh well, I won't be around.

[liv2ski]

We are so fucked. Oh well, I won't be around.

Boomer mantra. Right there with you...

[skaredshtles]

[AdironRider]

That has been addressed by piping water back uphill from Canyon Ferry. I think back on how uncrowded America was in 1964 and can easily see the Gallatin Valley with that many people. We are so fucked.

Oh well, I won't be around.

Well lets keep this apples to apples then. Gallatin Valley as a whole isn't Bozeman city limits, which are much smaller. I still call bullshit on Bozeman seeing that level of growth. They saw a whopping like 2 percent last year. Mountain Journal article is the same old same old shut the door behind you upon arrival bs.

[schuss]

How dare other people want to live near the mountains.

[Bunion 2020]

Well lets keep this apples to apples then. Gallatin Valley as a whole isn't Bozeman city limits, which are much smaller. I still call bullshit on Bozeman seeing that level of growth. They saw a whopping like 2 percent last year. Mountain Journal article is the same old same old shut the door behind you upon arrival bs.

MJ blows goats, the comparison was the SL Valley and the Gallatin Valley.

https://usafacts.org/data/topics/peo...llatin-county/

[Foggy_Goggles]

I guess it proves that there is no market based solution to affordable housing in desirable areas. You cannot build your way to affordable housing when there are near infinite numbers of people who would want to live in a specific geographically constrained location.

Any oversupply of housing is going to be swallowed up by people who do not work in the local economy.

How about we add the income side of affordable to the housing conversation? I'm talking about Grand County because it is what I know.

I posted a listing for a 1bd. for $1500 in DT Fraser by Safeway. That is a premium location. So at the 30% metric of affordability that is $5k a month/60k yr/$1,153 wk. or about $29 hr. @ 40 a week.

Safeway and City Market start at about $27. Overnight stockers start at $30 with decent benefits. Wendys pays about the same. Admin positions at County and Town Governments and Equipment Operators (CDL so no weed) start at $22.

Rent at the Town of WPs subsidized (tax payers payed to build it, own it and help with maintenance cost from the General Fund and pay a third party corporate entity to manage it) is $1800. They are allowing part time workers, hybrid workers, non local roomates for 2 bds. and loosening the income requirements.

So yeah, the details matter. Don't forget that WP will pay a former STR landlord (not available for everyone) up to $10k per year per bedroom to LTR to a local business.

So the idea of "fuck, housing is expensive in the mountains" isn't wrong but that doesn't mean that the current approach of addressing it is either right or the only avenue that should be discussed.

Any that's before we even get into the closeted classist and racist Super Karens with all the "I loved for the Housing Partnership" and other political signs in their yard across the street from the proposed apartment building that they put their blood and sweat into opposing.

Its a ruse. Look at whos winning and whos loosing. Not the ski area, they built their own housing. Not the contractors of any color, they demand and recieve a market wage. Not Team Khakis in local government, they all got their STR side hustles going.

Pay a living wage, send the tax payers the bill. Less electric busses and flowers in the medians and free concerts at park.

I mean fuck. I own a golf coarse, a bowling alley and a movies. You want to pay these wages, have a fancy upstairs office and blame "we can't get any help" on housing? No wonder the resturant and bar at Pole Creek have to close early.

Bistro 28 | Line Cook
Starting at $20.00 | Seasonal | Part-Time or Full-Time | Non-Exempt

Dishwasher
Starting at $18.00 |Thursday – Sunday | 5pm – 10pm | Non-Exempt

Outside Guest Services-Carts
Starting at $16.00+ | Part-Time or Full-Time | Non-Exempt

[skiballs]

Maybe a few thousand new immigrants would loosen things up a bit.


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[Foggy_Goggles]

Maybe a few thousand new immigrants would loosen things up a bit.


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Tell me more. As is, what in the actual fuck are you talking about.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Maybe a few thousand new immigrants would loosen things up a bit.


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Tell me more. As is, what in the actual fuck are you talking about.

[summit]

This has come up before but I think in Eagle/Grand/Summit developers need cash flow. I'm seeing and hearing about new construction just not selling. I think that they mismange the build and "need" to sell for a price that just ain't happening right now.

I thing the STR market is saturated. No figure. The "I'll just AirBnB it" doesn't pencil. So here we are. New condos, townhomes and single fams., coming up for LTRs at what I consider "affordable". And my metric for that is less $ per bedroom that the government owned subsidized apartments.

It's also a bit of schadenfruede when someone posts a whole house for rent in the local facefuck housing group at some exhorbinant price and someone looks it up and posts the purchase history including price decreases showing how long it was on market before the owner resorted to listing for LTR.

[summit]

I mean, if someone put up buildings with hundreds of apartments it wouldn't get swallowed up. I think a more accurate statement is you can't build your way to affordable housing given the restrictions people place on desirable areas.

Nah if you built several hundred unrestricted market apartments in Vail or Breckenridge, locals would get some, but mostly they would go to non-locals. And it isn't just front-rangers who would buy them. The entire planet buys real estate here to use for personal or commercial, or simply as an investment. That is what makes unique world destination real estate markets behave exceptionally. There is plenty of international money looking for a place to park.

If you magically dropped in 10,000 aparments, you still would sell the majority to non-locals, even if some of them were one-locals who moved off, and now are moving back to work at the new schools and grocery stores you had to build to accomodate so many new units. And you might get the locals that moved to bedroom communities because they couldn't afford primo. And you'd still have locals bitching that it is too expensive including the break-even rents charged by investors who bought for the long term and want to LTR in the meantime. And you'd have locals bitching that apartments aren't what they want: they want a SFH for their family and future.

The demand is literally insatiable and the simple construction cost of units is beyond the ability of many locals to afford.

[Name Redacted]

25% construction costs covered for a deed restriction put on the property for eternity. Not my thing, but a few are doing it, very few apparently.

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/sum...tance-program/