Real Estate Crash thread

[DBdude]

One six story building is gonna solve all the problems, right? Tots
I'm sure it would be only one six story building and nothing more. Totally reasonable assumption to make.

especially if it's in your back yard

that said, regulating air b and b units and their ilk is not anti development. it's communities enacting zoning and catching up to the market

[AdironRider]

One six story building is gonna solve all the problems, right? Tots
I'm sure it would be only one six story building and nothing more. Totally reasonable assumption to make.

Don't be obtuse. It would be more than one.

[goldenboy]

You can always add people until the thing that made the place special isn't special anymore.Unless your idea of uncrowded is walking down a new york city sidewalk.

Wouldn't that be a win-win? Increase supply and simultaneously lower demand? If that's the goal..

[singlesline]

I think your first two points contradict each other, but I disagree with point two. I grew up 15 minutes from the beach. It was nice. The town 10 miles further inland was still only 45 minutes from Boston but it had, and continues to have, much lower property values because it is a 1/2 hour to the beach vs. 15 minutes.

I also don't think the commerce angle applies. That is like one or two cities per state that have a port of any consequence, and very rarely are there decent beaches nearby as good ports and good beaches require very different things geographically. Basically every other beach town is exactly the same, tourist attractions, t shirt shops, cheap food and some fisherman (substitute guides for fishermen in a mountain environment).

I'm not saying there's no value in being 15 minutes from the beach, And I'm sure that if you go another 15 minutes from Encinitas (Foggy's original example), the prices get even lower...but nobody buys that house and says "I have a beach house." So it works well for year-round residents who want access to the beach without competing with people looking for beachfront property. That doesn't work in the mountains as every house is still a "mountain house" and many second home buyers actually prefer property further from town.

And sure, some beach towns are further away from things, but the popular ones that are capable of holding a large population and maintaining some level of affordability do tend to have a lot more proximity to an economic engine than remote mountain towns. There's relatively affordable housing in Encinitas because it isn't all tied to the beach/tourism market.

I'm not gonna claim it is a perfectly universal comparison--but Santa Barbara and Telluride operate on very different levels.

[fastfred]

houston has no zoning and is a mess and floods everytime it rains

thats the beauty of the place an auto body shop right next to some yuppie condos right next to a warehouse next to some high end single family homes next to an unfinished building rotting away oh and the night club down the street

zoning is how you keep minorities out and property values up
for some reason the lack of zoning in houston seems to work just fine
but if you like orderly defined land use then zoning is for you

and the fourth largest city has plenty of ditches all over the place which I find amusing sidewalks and storm water run off are not really any concern down there

[RootSkier]

You can always add people until the thing that made the place special isn't special anymore.Unless your idea of uncrowded is walking down a new york city sidewalk.

Yeah, lock the new fuckers out. We got ours, right?

[Conundrum]

exactly - high density means building up - it's not kansas anymore and the externalities to envoke rules to keep change out have really negative side affects

But I deserve cheap housing, and pow days, and mountain living. It doesn't have to be "It's not Kansas anymore". It could be "It's still Kansas". Here's a 3bd/2ba with a garage for $165k in Kansas that's been on the market for two months and the price is dropping. Nobody is forcing anyone to live in the mountains next to ski hills. Fred is an oracle and I like his takes. Resort town living isn't for everyone.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...91136926_zpid/

[neckdeep]

Nah if you built several hundred unrestricted market apartments in Vail or Breckenridge, locals would get some, but mostly they would go to non-locals. And it isn't just front-rangers who would buy them. The entire planet buys real estate here to use for personal or commercial, or simply as an investment. That is what makes unique world destination real estate markets behave exceptionally. There is plenty of international money looking for a place to park.

The demand is literally insatiable and the simple construction cost of units is beyond the ability of many locals to afford.

This. This is how dirt pimps destroy your town. By filling it with an investor class that wants to maximize returns, minimize costs and externalize all the negatives. It's not an organic process, it's a multimillion dollar marketing effort that thrives on greed. Everyone's in the game because they are looking for above average ROI and the only thing anyone cares about is "line go up". Next thing ya know, the original local recreation economy is absolutely dwarfed by carpet bagger dirt pimpin and an army of new people who build and service real estate portfolios. And then, it's over. The core of your community is gone and its replacement is financially addicted to endless development.

I've said it before: once Sotheby's comes into your town, it's over. Next thing you know, there's a massive shift from whatever your town was until the reality comes into line with the marketing. "Luxury. Privacy. Exclusivity. The true spirit of the West."

After the transformation is complete, fastfred will shrug and say "well, mountain towns aren't for everyone. You must have imagined there was a life before Sotheby's came to your town." Then he'll go back to rubbing his latest home appraisal on his crotch while he twists his nipps

[DBdude]

But I deserve cheap housing, and pow days, and mountain living. It doesn't have to be "It's not Kansas anymore". It could be "It's still Kansas". Here's a 3bd/2ba with a garage for $165k in Kansas that's been on the market for two months and the price is dropping. Nobody is forcing anyone to live in the mountains next to ski hills. Fred is an oracle and I like his takes. Resort town living isn't for everyone.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5...91136926_zpid/

so you are saying let the market set rates for new construction? not using high end development to subsidize low end development through zoning - aka mixed use. Just build.. . you wouldn't be so naive to set no new construction would you? what about the property rights of people that want to cash out? Is government going to come in set what price they can get? fast fred is a funny act that is a bit off a put on. i wouldn't want fred making decisions for my community - he whines about how his trust fund existence and wealthy family sucks...

[Danno]

Wouldn't that be a win-win? Increase supply and simultaneously lower demand? If that's the goal..

It's so crowded nobody goes there anymore!

[Conundrum]

I'm not saying anything of importance. I was joking about the Kansas comment. I don't live in a mountain town so don't pretend to know how to "fix" them. I used to frequent them but do so less lately because they are becoming shells of what made them cool. As long lost Benny would say, I'm a global local...a tourist.

I also didn't try living in one because I could find a house and a job elsewhere that met my needs and that I could afford. I applaud people that try to make a go of it and am jealous some times. But if owning house is my priority, I probably would look at the midwest and various other locales across the nation. If having recreation paradise within walking distance is the goal, I might make sacrifices elsewhere. Or just be rich or have a knack for really good timing and have both.

[summit]

so the town of dillon in summit county colorado has a developer with big plans to build "high rise" buildings, commercial space, restaurants, affordable housing units, condos and hotel rooms

guess what the people who live there and love the sleeping dated tacky 1982 empty feel to the town have their pitch forks sharpened and are doing everything they can to stop the development in it's tracks

it's comical because its every nimbys wet dream shut the door keep everything as is the day I got here

the developer is asking for higher density and taller buildings if he can't do what he wants he'll just shit ball the project make a big mess skip the affordable units and build within the current rules which will create higher cost units meanwhile the old fuck living in his asbestos filled unit will keep dreaming of a new kitchen

That is a completely wrong hot take on the Dillon situation.

You think that is about density? This ain't about a 6 story workforce housing apartment my guy. It's about the Sotherby's customer crowd... or rather Slifer Smith & Frampton, who will sell the units and has one of their dirt pimps on the Dillon town council voting in favor of this thing rather than recusing. That is the same town council that voted to ignore their attorney on a first ammendment issue, by playing favorites with a local church whose members were on town council, forcing the attorney to resign and the council to be unable to meet before reversing themselves.

The developer wants to build a Branded Residence luxury complex and has said "Give me a zoning variance to build fewer bigger taller fancier expensivo units or I'll just build a larger number of units in the same space while following height requirements."

He is threatening to build it denser unless he can build taller but fewer luxury units.

I got no dogs in that trainwreck, but it is hilarious to watch. Dillon needs to figure out what it wants to be when it grows up. So now you have Dillon's mayor's husband leading the voter initiative to overturn the development approval!

[fastfred]

Oh i know what's up summit

This whole county is built on uncontrollable growth as much as they lie that we are running out of land we will double the number of units and population at any cost

The Dillon town council is a joke just like all the local politicians around here

There is no reason not to build the proposed development other than ass hole nimbys

[Foggy_Goggles]

Same in my 'hood. The hand on the hip, all outrage no logic, Super Karens with all the Pro Affordable Housing political signs in the yard will fight to the death against a low rise five building market rate apartment building in Tabernash.

It's a simple replatt. No Zoning change. They just want to sound compassionate at the cocktail parties and make sure they've got a clearer and a landscaper that will magically appear from some down valley location.

They are scared and they care about nobody other than themselves. It is totally insane. Oh and they are so local. Just ask them. I've seen total adult meltdowns in public meeting with crying and being put in time out. An apartment building would make there home unlivable.

Sent from a 6 m/s face melting thermal

[MontuckyFried]

...It's about the Sotherby's customer crowd... or rather Slifer Smith & Frampton, who will sell the units and has one of their dirt pimps on the Dillon town council voting in favor of this thing rather than recusing. That is the same town council that voted to ignore their attorney on a first ammendment issue, by playing favorites with a local church whose members were on town council, forcing the attorney to resign and the council to be unable to meet before reversing themselves.
...
I got no dogs in that trainwreck, but it is hilarious to watch. Dillon needs to figure out what it wants to be when it grows up. So now you have Dillon's mayor's husband leading the voter initiative to overturn the development approval!

Is it just me or is every notable mountain town about the same in this regard? Each with their own gigantic circle jerk between local officials, developers, big money homeowners, etc. Bozeman and Big Sky are very representative in this phenomenon. Sounds like Dillon, Jackson, and the rest are too. Absolutely maddening.

Same in my 'hood. The hand on the hip, all outrage no logic, Super Karens with all the Pro Affordable Housing political signs in the yard will fight to the death against a low rise five building market rate apartment building in Tabernash.

It's a simple replatt. No Zoning change. They just want to sound compassionate at the cocktail parties and make sure they've got a clearer and a landscaper that will magically appear from some down valley location.

They are scared and they care about nobody other than themselves. It is totally insane. Oh and they are so local. Just ask them. I've seen total adult meltdowns in public meeting with crying and being put in time out. An apartment building would make there home unlivable.

Hahahaha. NAILED IT!!!

[Foggy_Goggles]

I've been following that Dillion Branded Residence think in ya'lls paper. I think you guys are actually agreeing.

The process and Use by Right is either poorly understood or ignored by the all developers and development is bad for me crowd.

I try is explain it like this. You bought a R1 lot and want to build a house on it. Your neighbors enjoyed the vacant land next door but their is fuck all they can do when you want to build.

I'd say the two biggest living wage industries in ski towns are construction, real estate and the associated services. So you get these strange bedfellows of the angry dirtbag types and the non working wealthy and they get laughed at by the electricians and home inspectors and owners of cleaning companies that have figured out the bullshit and tend to be more happy than most.

Sent from a 6 m/s face melting thermal

[singlesline]

I'd say the two biggest living wage industries in ski towns are construction, real estate and the associated services. So you get these strange bedfellows of the angry dirtbag types and the non working wealthy and they get laughed at by the electricians and home inspectors and owners of cleaning companies that have figured out the bullshit and tend to be more happy than most.

Yeah, I was about to say--a successful dirt pimp is one of the few local jobs that can support a nice house and a family in a lot of these towns....but continued development of luxury vacation homes and the related high dollar sales are directly in their interest...affordable rental apartments are not.

[Toadman]

exactly - high density means building up - it's not kansas anymore and the externalities to envoke rules to keep change out have really negative side affects

The thing of it is, it never was Kansas. Besides, rules were meant to be bought off by developers.

[DBdude]

politicians need a retirement too

[fastfred]

I

I also didn't try living in one because I could find a house and a job elsewhere that met my needs and that I could afford. I applaud people that try to make a go of it and am jealous some times. But if owning house is my priority, I probably would look at the midwest and various other locales across the nation. If having recreation paradise within walking distance is the goal, I might make sacrifices elsewhere. Or just be rich or have a knack for really good timing and have both.

this is it no one is making anyone live in a ski town
it's a choice
you can live many other places for a fraction of the cost so what's wrong with two weeks of vacation time in various "ski towns" while having a career and a house in a lower cost of living place?

the biggest issues that people are hung up on is you can see the stark contrast between those that have and those that don't
it's right in your face

[AdironRider]

the biggest issues that people are hung up on is you can see the stark contrast between those that have and those that don't
it's right in your face

This is true. I'll admit I struggled with the juxtaposition often.

I do think that you see it elsewhere, although not so much right in your face in the sense of an affordable development right next to 5 million dollar homes like you see in a ski town. Even in say Texas, if you want a decent house in a good school district, you are most likely paying decent money (at least enough to get your foot in the door in most ski towns - aka not Aspen or Jackson) to get there. The difference is everyone else is also. The affordable towns are 20-30 minutes away and they are surrounded by people of similar means and mindset.

[Mustonen]

All true enough. Everybody (more or less) has a higher standard of living now than any time in history. At least if you live in the USA. But we dream of a bygone age where all our neighbors had a similar standard of living and that drives a perception that it’s shitty now. And it isn’t. But the haves are way too obvious to the have nots and damnit if that isn’t too much to swallow.

Also I do not understand the zoning against high rise. I run into it frequently. That building is gonna be in the way of your sightline buddy, whether it’s 2 stories or 10. 10 stories means that at least there’s a little more space to go around. Be neat to get that out of our collective value proposition.

ETA: I don’t mean to opine on mountain town housing issues. That’s a whole can of worms I have no knowledge of outside of what I read in this thread.

[neckdeep]

this is it no one is making anyone live in a ski town
it's a choice
you can live many other places for a fraction of the cost so what's wrong with two weeks of vacation time in various "ski towns" while having a career and a house in a lower cost of living place?

the biggest issues that people are hung up on is you can see the stark contrast between those that have and those that don't
it's right in your face

Fred, you're a fucking moron. Take your self satisfied thumb out of your ass and look around.

It's not just about "oh, poor me, I can't afford to move to Fred's ski house neighborhood and watch him goof off on his family's money".

Mountain town living isnt for everyone? Well, that apparently includes everyone who has kids in school. Thanks to dirt pimpin greed heads and their warped "progress", we can only afford teachers for four days a week. Our kids are falling behind. I guess you'd say it's their parents fault, for being so foolish as to think you could own a home and simply be middle class in the mountains.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Neck, I love your takes man. This thread suffers from a bit too much of hypothetical and you bring the real. But so does Fred.

I know the Teton Valley and Swan Valley have there own kinda special. And yes, the outta down developer/realtor crowd is very punchable. And the track record of the public process in your 'hood isn't the most...how I say...above board and transparent?

I think I get you a Snapt mixed up, I can't remember your industry? EMS? Rage is understandable. But we don't control the price of housing. We, collectively, has way more control over the wages paid to public sector employees like teachers. You are shooting yourself in the foot by saying want you can't afford.

And yes, since the beginning of time parents have been going through the calculus of where to live based on schooling. Teachers get paid dogshit nationwide. Its a problem. Developers didn't cause it.

Look, these fuckstains think they are better than us. But do a bit of yoga, go to the meetings and figure out a tactful way to tell them too their face. Taking stock of reality is totally healthy. And for many, trying to be a voice and bringing your gift to the community helps you feel good.

Or don't. But don't let your mental health and general enjoyment in life be collateral damage of something you don't control. Talk is cheap and I don't mean to belittle your situation.

Do you have kids? Where are the good schools in rural Idaho and Wyoming? Do you like it there? Can you afford it? How far is the ski area?

[AdironRider]

I don't think Teton Valley has a problem affording better schools, the community just doesn't want to spend the money there. I find it hard to fault the realtors for a bunch of dinks (with interesting bedfellows in the Mormons - who continue to control the school board) not giving a shit about the kids.