Real Estate Crash thread

[Bunion 2020]

Lots of price drops in Big Sky and stuff sitting on the market for months. It's noticeable to me as a perrenial looky loo.

Still seeing signs of the same things in the really big. Projects being delayed or cancelled, builder who is usually very busy told me he has nothing starting this year other than a couple of additions.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Um, I don't think it is good public policy to pile more tax advantage on residential real estate. My work pipeline appears pretty solid but you never know. People say building is slowing. I think the people on the margin that need to run a spreadsheet to figure out if they can make it happen are squeezed. That's probably a good thing.

As long as there are plenty of rich people and they don't need to be in the office all the time, I think they'll keep moving to the mountains. The demographic trend is just so strong.

And as Danno says, every time (if) rates and or prices ratchet down, a new group of buyers will engage.

[Bunion 2020]

We will see. Those projects in Big Sky are all very high end, 10-50 Million. Before the last slow down the 1st signs were in that high end market as well, the fabulously wealthy seem to know when the wheels are about to fall off.

I have a residential project just outside Bozeman, 96 SFHs being built by the same company. 1.7 million price point which for Bozeman is above entry level but not what I would label as a real nice custom build, lots are around .6 acres. They have built and sold 5 units and have another 5 that are nearing completion but not selling nearly as quickly. Would not be a bit surprised to see them tap the brakes on any additional starts until after the election.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Um, I don't think it is good public policy to pile more tax advantage on residential real estate. My work pipeline appears pretty solid but you never know. People say building is slowing. I think the people on the margin that need to run a spreadsheet to figure out if they can make it happen are squeezed. That's probably a good thing.

As long as there are plenty of rich people and they don't need to be in the office all the time, I think they'll keep moving to the mountains. The demographic trend is just so strong.

And as Danno says, every time (if) rates and or prices ratchet down, a new group of buyers will engage.

[fastfred]

I'm praying interest rates hold or go up

Fuck all the whiners my 8. 25% interest rate was a bummer

Found a stellar home easily 250 to 300k over what I'd pay hopefully it's still sitting there in December

[Danno]

My timeline is next spring or summer, so I'm at least hoping things stay steady right now. But a down turn wouldn't make me unhappy.

[NBABUCKS1]

. Would not be a bit surprised to see them tap the brakes on any additional starts until after the election.

I don't understand how this has any effect on housing starts.

[Bunion 2020]

The developer needs to sell units in order to be able to self finance the next phase. Uncertainty in many different things including politics makes people understandably defensive, especially when it comes to investing their own $$$.

[up an down]

Without being too harsh... where are you planning on living while you rent out your house to someone else for less than market and the gov't pays the diff for you to keep it that way?

Byates has a big van.. Plenty of room for 2.

[byates1]

I'll take the wife for a night here and there.

[yeahman]

Still seeing signs of the same things in the really big. Projects being delayed or cancelled, builder who is usually very busy told me he has nothing starting this year other than a couple of additions.

I'm seeing Candlelight Meadow condos that were going for up to 1.2 million are now being priced under 900k and still dropping. And it seems like sellers are having to compete as there are multiple units for sale. I'm curious to see how busy (or not) the resort is this year. Will you be there? Got a pass?

[Bunion 2020]

I bought the green pass, absolute least I could spend and still get in a bunch of days. With my Boyne Bucks I was all in for about 440 of my $$$.
I will pay day rate for the tram for the 10 or so days I want to deal with it. With the new MLB chair I can enjoy skiing that side again.

[4matic]

Darth Powell has a good doom blog. Excellent riffs on selfish boomers

“Another way of putting this, Boomers have no idea why they have money at all.

That it was stolen from younger generations.”

Check out Darth Powell on X.
Wish not for an easy life, but rather, the strength to endure a hard one. https://x.com/VladTheInflator

[Bunion 2020]

Just ran into my neighbor (surveyor for the biggest engineering firm in the area) he says he has seen a slowing in terms of staking out sites, he is psyched. Also 1 house similar to mine just sold in here for 800K, fuckers don't even have trout fishing in their back yard.

2 other houses are about to go up for sale both to the north of me, be interesting to see what they bring. I am in no hurry to pull up stakes just yet. Biggest bummer is they were both good neighbors (1 is a Mag) and the President and VP of the HOA.

[yeahman]

Buddy of mine is helping his mom list her place on 40 acres about 10 minutes from Steamboat Springs. (His dad just died.) Cannot be subdivided. They've been there 30 years. Great views apparently. Curious to see what they get for it. She's going to move into a condo in town.

[Bronco]

[QUOTE=Bunion 2020;7108439Before the last slow down the 1st signs were in that high end market as well, the fabulously wealthy seem to know when the wheels are about to fall off.[/QUOTE]

I was working for The Club at Spanish Peaks in 2007-2008 and remember the wheels falling off in ‘08. I think we sold something like 100 units (lots, condos, specs) in 2007 and had something like 2 sales in 2008. Stock market crashed in September and shit rolled downhill from there. It was like the Illuminati knew ahead of time and us regular folks were left holding the bag. Learned a lot since then (hopefully).

[Core Shot]

Buddy of mine is helping his mom list her place on 40 acres about 10 minutes from Steamboat Springs. (His dad just died.) Cannot be subdivided. They've been there 30 years. Great views apparently. Curious to see what they get for it. She's going to move into a condo in town.

Damn. Ranch property? Rich billionaires frothing right now

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

DOM coming down in the last couple weeks. Sale to List price ratio tightening up. Pull back on rates in the last week or so. More and more higher dollar stuff going under contract quickly. July is always a bit slow anyway.

Just ran into my neighbor (surveyor for the biggest engineering firm in the area) he says he has seen a slowing in terms of staking out sites, he is psyched. Also 1 house similar to mine just sold in here for 800K, fuckers don't even have trout fishing in their back yard.

2 other houses are about to go up for sale both to the north of me, be interesting to see what they bring. I am in no hurry to pull up stakes just yet. Biggest bummer is they were both good neighbors (1 is a Mag) and the President and VP of the HOA.

Just let me know when....we'd be sad to see you go though.

[Bunion 2020]

Could be 2 years could be 20. I like where I live in spite of all the bitching that goes with it.

[liv2ski]

Could be 2 years could be 20. I like where I live in spite of all the bitching that goes with it.

That sounds like something I would say. Love CA but all the retards in this country try my patience some days.

[Buster Highmen]

Neighbor bought her house in 2020 for 1.4M.
Put it on the market July 28 for 2.295M, offer accepted July 30.

[liv2ski]

But what is she going to buy? The equity is nice but where to buy for less?

[byates1]

Tennessee

[dan_pdx]

Tennessee

No kidding, my uncle moved out there for affordability and got two or three times the house he could have bought in Oregon.

[rideit]

Which is fine, if you never leave the house.