Real Estate Crash thread

[fomofo]

Tahoe dreaming
https://www.priceypads.com/49-5-mill...tal-bay-nevada

I did not have private funicular on my list.

Still no buyer for Tahoe’s $49 million megamansion

[byates1]

Louis trying to buy in bozeman

[frorider]

Interesting article on the DOJ case against rental pricing/gouging software: https://www.vox.com/money/370351/rea...orithm-pricing

[anotherVTskibum]

I think this was the thread where permitting times were discussed. Apparently a few NYC fire department folks took it upon themselves to offer expedited service there:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/16/n...smid=url-share

[4matic]

As good a place as any to put this:

“Amazon tells employees to return to office five days a week”

[byates1]

https://www.fastcompany.com/91194081...ets-in-america

[rideit]

hunh

[spanky]

hunh

[Foggy_Goggles]

This has come up before but I think in Eagle/Grand/Summit developers need cash flow. I'm seeing and hearing about new construction just not selling. I think that they mismange the build and "need" to sell for a price that just ain't happening right now.

I thing the STR market is saturated. No figure. The "I'll just AirBnB it" doesn't pencil. So here we are. New condos, townhomes and single fams., coming up for LTRs at what I consider "affordable". And my metric for that is less $ per bedroom that the government owned subsidized apartments.

If I were a Front Range skier with a bit of cheddar, a somewhat flexible schedule and I desire to sit in traffic less and ski more, I'd be seriously kicking the tires on renting a place for the year.

I'm sure that these owner/builder/developer/landloards would much rather rent to a couple families splitting the cost with the nicer cars in the drive and a lifestyle that looks like a second homeowner that 4 dirtbag ski area employees with the beat up whips and associated going or how to we say, non-skiing non-native workforce.

As Warren says, something like "if not now you'll be one year older when you do". So if you want move to a ski town or work remote there may be an opportunity.

Here is one https://rockies.craigslist.org/apa/d...786956138.html

[Foggy_Goggles]

This has come up before but I think in Eagle/Grand/Summit developers need cash flow. I'm seeing and hearing about new construction just not selling. I think that they mismange the build and "need" to sell for a price that just ain't happening right now.

I thing the STR market is saturated. No figure. The "I'll just AirBnB it" doesn't pencil. So here we are. New condos, townhomes and single fams., coming up for LTRs at what I consider "affordable". And my metric for that is less $ per bedroom that the government owned subsidized apartments.

If I were a Front Range skier with a bit of cheddar, a somewhat flexible schedule and I desire to sit in traffic less and ski more, I'd be seriously kicking the tires on renting a place for the year.

I'm sure that these owner/builder/developer/landloards would much rather rent to a couple families splitting the cost with the nicer cars in the drive and a lifestyle that looks like a second homeowner that 4 dirtbag ski area employees with the beat up whips and associated going or how to we say, non-skiing non-native workforce.

As Warren says, something like "if not now you'll be one year older when you do". So if you want move to a ski town or work remote there may be an opportunity.

Here is one https://rockies.craigslist.org/apa/d...786956138.html

[byates1]

Lol!

[rideit]

That’s pretty hilarious, I admit!

[yeahman]

This has come up before but I think in Eagle/Grand/Summit developers need cash flow. I'm seeing and hearing about new construction just not selling. I think that they mismange the build and "need" to sell for a price that just ain't happening right now.

I thing the STR market is saturated. No figure. The "I'll just AirBnB it" doesn't pencil. So here we are. New condos, townhomes and single fams., coming up for LTRs at what I consider "affordable". And my metric for that is less $ per bedroom that the government owned subsidized apartments.

If I were a Front Range skier with a bit of cheddar, a somewhat flexible schedule and I desire to sit in traffic less and ski more, I'd be seriously kicking the tires on renting a place for the year.

I'm sure that these owner/builder/developer/landloards would much rather rent to a couple families splitting the cost with the nicer cars in the drive and a lifestyle that looks like a second homeowner that 4 dirtbag ski area employees with the beat up whips and associated going or how to we say, non-skiing non-native workforce.

As Warren says, something like "if not now you'll be one year older when you do". So if you want move to a ski town or work remote there may be an opportunity.

Here is one https://rockies.craigslist.org/apa/d...786956138.html

The problem with this is you just become part of the problem by taking a LTR off the market that could be used by employees of the resort or local businesses, which we all rely on to make the place operational. When I asked around at Big Sky a few years ago about a seasonal rental to use one or two nights a week, I got a ration of shit from locals for this reason. Some people might not care, but I did so I quit looking and just stuck with my usual hotel rooms.

[Toadman]

This has come up before but I think in Eagle/Grand/Summit developers need cash flow. I'm seeing and hearing about new construction just not selling. I think that they mismange the build and "need" to sell for a price that just ain't happening right now.

We are got our first house when we moved to Bend for a Seattle based developer. He had built several houses all on spec. None had sold by the end of the summer. So, he started dropping the prices. Still no body biting. He dropped the prices again. And by October, he dropped the prices on all 3 houses and they went 1,2,3 in very quick order. Just goes to show that he had priced the houses above market thinking that just because everything else around had been selling that he could just put these homes above market pricing because it was new construction. The developer probably just broke even on the deals.

[Kevo]

This has come up before but I think in Eagle/Grand/Summit developers need cash flow. I'm seeing and hearing about new construction just not selling. I think that they mismange the build and "need" to sell for a price that just ain't happening right now.

I thing the STR market is saturated. No figure. The "I'll just AirBnB it" doesn't pencil. So here we are. New condos, townhomes and single fams., coming up for LTRs at what I consider "affordable". And my metric for that is less $ per bedroom that the government owned subsidized apartments.

If I were a Front Range skier with a bit of cheddar, a somewhat flexible schedule and I desire to sit in traffic less and ski more, I'd be seriously kicking the tires on renting a place for the year.

I'm sure that these owner/builder/developer/landloards would much rather rent to a couple families splitting the cost with the nicer cars in the drive and a lifestyle that looks like a second homeowner that 4 dirtbag ski area employees with the beat up whips and associated going or how to we say, non-skiing non-native workforce.

As Warren says, something like "if not now you'll be one year older when you do". So if you want move to a ski town or work remote there may be an opportunity.

Here is one https://rockies.craigslist.org/apa/d...786956138.html

I guess it proves that there is no market based solution to affordable housing in desirable areas. You cannot build your way to affordable housing when there are near infinite numbers of people who would want to live in a specific geographically constrained location.

Any oversupply of housing is going to be swallowed up by people who do not work in the local economy.

[schuss]

I guess it proves that there is no market based solution to affordable housing in desirable areas. You cannot build your way to affordable housing when there are near infinite numbers of people who would want to live in a specific geographically constrained location.

Any oversupply of housing is going to be swallowed up by people who do not work in the local economy.

I mean, if someone put up buildings with hundreds of apartments it wouldn't get swallowed up. I think a more accurate statement is you can't build your way to affordable housing given the restrictions people place on desirable areas.

[byates1]

The amount of "superstructures" going up in Bozeman quickly is insane. 1000s of units. Seems crazy but I claim to know nothing


Ppl have said this is the next SLC. I dunno

[Kevo]

I mean, if someone put up buildings with hundreds of apartments it wouldn't get swallowed up. I think a more accurate statement is you can't build your way to affordable housing given the restrictions people place on desirable areas.

I respectfully disagree. If you put hundreds of new free market apartments in Summit County I would expect that front range demand would immediately swallow them. So many people would jump at the chance to rent them as weekend accomodation.

There would have to be restrictions on who is allowed to rent them in order for them to serve laborers.

The amount of "superstructures" going up in Bozeman quickly is insane. 1000s of units. Seems crazy but I claim to know nothing


Ppl have said this is the next SLC. I dunno

The population of Bozeman/Gallatin, by 2041, will equal the size of Salt Lake City

(Guessing this has been posted before)

[byates1]

Lotta ppl w a lotta property will have to sell to make it happen. I've heard no way it happens. Whatever

[byates1]

Bzn 60/70 k to 3M in 15 yrs?
150000 plus ppl a year for 15 yrs moving here. Uh yeah probably not.

[byates1]

But hey

[Name Redacted]

Building like crazy here in Summit, especially Silverthorne. Lots of million dollar condos which is so surreal to anyone who has lived here for more than a few years. But they also built a ton of affordable housing. Some pretty good deals if I was in the market. $450k for a 3bed 3 bath w/ 2 car garage?!?! Hell yeah! If I was a single dude and rented two rooms out I’d be semi retired. Of course it will never appreciate more than 3% per year, so the poors stay poor. But if you fit the requirements it isn’t a bad deal. Pretty funny when you drive through these places and everyone has a Sprinter and/or raft/snowmobile trailer in the driveway. Good for them. I would totally live there if I didnt already have my own thing goin on.

[skaredshtles]

Building like crazy here in Summit, especially Silverthorne. Lots of million dollar condos which is so surreal to anyone who has lived here for more than a few years.

Eh. A million dollars ain't what it used to be.

[dan_pdx]

Bzn 60/70 k to 3M in 15 yrs?
150000 plus ppl a year for 15 yrs moving here. Uh yeah probably not.

Yeah, sounds like someone made a j-curve based on the last few years and then predicted it's going to continue forever. Their data probably shows that by 2060 Bozeman will be bigger than LA you

[Name Redacted]

Eh. A million dollars ain't what it used to be.

For a 2br condo right on the highway in Silverthorne? $1M is Stupid money for that.