Real Estate Crash thread

[schuss]

Nah if you built several hundred unrestricted market apartments in Vail or Breckenridge, locals would get some, but mostly they would go to non-locals. And it isn't just front-rangers who would buy them. The entire planet buys real estate here to use for personal or commercial, or simply as an investment. That is what makes unique world destination real estate markets behave exceptionally. There is plenty of international money looking for a place to park.

If you magically dropped in 10,000 aparments, you still would sell the majority to non-locals, even if some of them were one-locals who moved off, and now are moving back to work at the new schools and grocery stores you had to build to accomodate so many new units. And you might get the locals that moved to bedroom communities because they couldn't afford primo. And you'd still have locals bitching that it is too expensive including the break-even rents charged by investors who bought for the long term and want to LTR in the meantime. And you'd have locals bitching that apartments aren't what they want: they want a SFH for their family and future.

The demand is literally insatiable and the simple construction cost of units is beyond the ability of many locals to afford.

What if it was several thousand?

[summit]

What if it was several thousand?

I think I covered that in my second paragraph

[singlesline]

It's also a bit of schadenfruede when someone posts a whole house for rent in the local facefuck housing group at some exhorbinant price and someone looks it up and posts the purchase history including price decreases showing how long it was on market before the owner resorted to listing for LTR.

It is a brave person who posts a rental listing on our local facebook group...

[Kevo]

What if it was several thousand?

Congrats! You just doubled the population of Breckenridge. Now you need a new water treatment plant, a new sewage treatment plant, two new schools, a new firehouse, two new grocery stores and all of the staff work at those facilities. You also need to widen the roads, increase public transportation, build larger capacity power infrastructure and expand the hospital, all in a small high altitude valley with limited land. The cost to build becomes enormous as the remaining available land is bought up and built out.

The number of service workers to support the now doubled population is enormous and there is nowhere to house them in the county. They'll live in Fairplay and commute by car and bus, but Fairplay now also needs to have hundreds or thousands of additional units built to support their massively increased population which means all of the same increases to essential services and infrastructure. By the way, there is a single westbound lane and eastbound lane connecting Fairplay to the nearest metro area and two lanes each direction to connect Breckenridge to said metro area.

It's unlikely that you can fund the new infrastructure because of Colorado's TABOR laws, so the infrastructure never improves and traffic is horrendous. There are 40 students per teacher at every school. Firetrucks can't get through traffic. The Dillon Reservoir is polluted with e coli, and most of the units that were built never went to the "locals" to begin with because they couldn't afford to buy them in the free market.

Why did you decided to double the population again?

[fastfred]

Fairplay is about to get a massive apartment complex built free market units

Why people purposely put a deed restriction on their home for quick cash is beyond me

Facebook housing page in summit county is the goto clearing house for rentals

Resort towns have never been cheap and never will and yes people cry all day everyday move back to bum fuck Iowa where the cost of living is low

[Foggy_Goggles]

Don't forget more lift served capacity. There are litterally thousands of platted units in Fraser that can be developed Use by Right.

Development Fees by many names are exempt from Tabor.

The future is now. It cracks me up when people talk about what they don't want to happen as what can't happen.

We just built a new school, we have plenty of wet water, we are are building a medical center in Winter Park, shit plants cost about $30k per SFE.

Your cleaner charges about $75/hr., plumber about $200. You can't go to the grocery between Thursday afternoon and Tuesday morning because they have no food. Plow guy, what plow guy.

It's all gas no brakes until it explodes. Some people rage, some people profit.

Sent from a 6 m/s face melting thermal

[AdironRider]

Congrats! You just doubled the population of Breckenridge. Now you need a new water treatment plant, a new sewage treatment plant, two new schools, a new firehouse, two new grocery stores and all of the staff work at those facilities. You also need to widen the roads, increase public transportation, build larger capacity power infrastructure and expand the hospital, all in a small high altitude valley with limited land. The cost to build becomes enormous as the remaining available land is bought up and built out.

The number of service workers to support the now doubled population is enormous and there is nowhere to house them in the county. They'll live in Fairplay and commute by car and bus, but Fairplay now also needs to have hundreds or thousands of additional units built to support their massively increased population which means all of the same increases to essential services and infrastructure. By the way, there is a single westbound lane and eastbound lane connecting Fairplay to the nearest metro area and two lanes each direction to connect Breckenridge to said metro area.

It's unlikely that you can fund the new infrastructure because of Colorado's TABOR laws, so the infrastructure never improves and traffic is horrendous. There are 40 students per teacher at every school. Firetrucks can't get through traffic. The Dillon Reservoir is polluted with e coli, and most of the units that were built never went to the "locals" to begin with because they couldn't afford to buy them in the free market.

Why did you decided to double the population again?

What do you think those 10,000 units tax dollars go towards? Not just concerts in the park.

Save the nimbyness. These are all challenges other communities handle, often with zero issues or fanfare. Let me remind you again plenty of cities are growing at a rate that would make any mountain town blush and they get this shit done. The problem in mountain towns is you don't want anyone else to spoil your view or poach your line.

[fastfred]

What do you think those 10,000 units tax dollars go towards? Not just concerts in the park.

Save the nimbyness. These are all challenges other communities handle, often with zero issues or fanfare. Let me remind you again plenty of cities are growing at a rate that would make any mountain town blush and they get this shit done. The problem in mountain towns is you don't want anyone else to spoil your view or poach your line.

um the owners of a local large scale affordable housing development asked for a 6% plus rent rate increase, place is only a few years old. OMG the sky is falling so the fucked in the head never run a business before county commisioners go "hey maybe these units don't need to pay any property taxes so we can help keep the rents down." what kind of fucking idiot thinks that is a brilliant idea?

I think you mentioned houston a few posts back as somone who spends some time in houston I can assure you it is growing and is a mind fuck
the interest highways are next level and they loop and loop and loop people drive well over an hour each way to work so they can send their kids to "good schools" live in the tranquil suburbs in a massive house surrounded by people just like them

meanwhile I never venture far outside downtown midtown the heights montrose eado or the museum district walk everywhere or take the train sometimes I'll jump in the car and make the hour and fifteen minute drive to the beach

[Foggy_Goggles]

It's interesting. Most people tend to be very agenda driven. Many, including the pull up the drawbridge anti development second homos, are pretty transparent, others are harder to read.

A thick irony is that the housing subsidies are largely reliant on fees levied on new construction.

What has happened is we've gotten bigger local governments chasing more AV whilst creating more non-living wage jobs requiring more subsidized housing and so on.

Our situation is a bit unique in that Granby, Hot Sulpher and K Town aren't really ski towns.

Elections are coming up. Vote local. Educate yourself. If you care and are invested, at least zoom in to a few meetings. Or review the minutes and stuff.

Sent from a 6 m/s face melting thermal

[summit]

Zoom into the work session. That is the sausage factory. Then comment at the meeting that follows. If you comment in the working phase, you'll have more impact.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Whats to stop the Colorado Mountain Towns from being just like the High Cost of Living Beach towns on either coast? And should it be stopped and why?

Looks like a nice 2bd 15mins from the beach in Encinitas is about $2500.

That's not to say I want it. I'm the guy that likes it just fine when you couldn't by underwear in this county. But the "I don't want change so I'm gonna try to but up roadblocks where ever possible" gets really old. Specially when they actually do what their type of change with they call "making it better"

[chicken feathers]

. I'm the guy that likes it just fine when you couldn't by underwear in this county.

Ha! I totally made a trip to summit co for underwear before.

[Conundrum]

Everyone deserves to live in paradise. I don't see why mountain town livers can't figure that out.

Back to housing for normal people, a 3b/2ba decent house four houses down from me in a desirable location in town has been an ABB for the last fourish years. They listed it for LTR at $5,100/mo last Feb. Pulled it after a month and put it back into the ABB pool. Listed LTR again at $3,900/mo in May, reduced to $2,900 a few weeks later then pulled it. Listed it again in July at $3,900/mo and it's slowly come down...$3,800, $3,600, $3,500, now at $3,200 and still sitting. I was shocked at the price. Thought maybe $2,400/mo seemed high but fair given the market we're in. Yes, out of state investor. Just bought some furniture from them as they're clearing it out.

More and more LTR signs up in the neighbor which I haven't seen since pre-covid. Three boutique hotels downtown about a mile from here just opened. Kick ass bars and restaurants in them. We're not a resort town but do see a fair amount of tourism. Maybe things are turning.

[singlesline]

Whats to stop the Colorado Mountain Towns from being just like the High Cost of Living Beach towns on either coast? And should it be stopped and why?

Looks like a nice 2bd 15mins from the beach in Encinitas is about $2500.

Armchair analysis says that beaches aren't mountains.

1. Most beach areas have significant room to expand in the other direction. Vail has no room to sprawl.

2. Amenity value of a beach mostly comes from access and visibility--homes on the beach are significantly more expensive, followed by homes that can see and/or walk to the beach. Nobody is buying vacation homes 15 min from the beach. Mountains can be seen in all directions and the value is derived more from proximity: 15 minutes from a ski hill in one direction, 15 minutes to a nice MTB trailhead in another direction, 15 minutes from river access the other way...sounds like a dream to a second home buyer.

3. Beach towns are far more likely to have additional economic engines within commuting distance. E.g. ports for shipping, which brought other industry, which bought colleges, which brought business, etc.--all of which aren't tied to the waterfront and can start to spread out which opens the population up to using more of the space that may not have the "beach" value but is a good place to live for other reasons.

Mountain towns didn't develop like that as they were often tied to extractive use of the land...so even places like Jackson Hole that technically have lots of room to expand (ignoring issues of land ownership, resource availability, etc.) didn't actually do it 100 years ago and likely never will (rich NIMBY landowners, protected lands, etc.). And when a new unit goes up in Jackson it draws non-resident vacation home interest because it doesn't really matter where you are...you're still in Jackson (and in fact, the wealthiest homeowners often prefer to be 15 minutes away on some secluded acreage)

[Name Redacted]

Ya know, I would be ok if they would just build up instead of out in the mountains. I think people need to get over that whole building height thing. I think it would be kinda cool to have some high-rise towers around where a lot of people had great views, and maybe some pools and bars on top.

[BCMtnHound]

Hmm, a fiat currency system, paired with a fractional banking model, being exploited by a predatory capitalist regime trying to convert ‘worthless’ currency into a real asset that is also a diminishing basic human necessity. What could possibly go wrong?

[byates1]

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[MontuckyFried]

Armchair analysis says that beaches aren't mountains....

To continue on with your beach vs mountain analysis, Name Redacted raises an important point here.

Ya know, I would be ok if they would just build up instead of out in the mountains. I think people need to get over that whole building height thing. I think it would be kinda cool to have some high-rise towers around where a lot of people had great views, and maybe some pools and bars on top.

How many beaches are lined up and down with high rise condos? Certainly that has an effect on keeping things a bit more moderated in price as compared to mountain towns. At least it would seem so. In small areas of land, you can pack in WAY more units per acre than you can in mountain towns. Of course then the question comes into play if whether or not the local infrastructure can even handle that many additional dwellings/people to begin with.

[summit]

You can always add people until the thing that made the place special isn't special anymore.Unless your idea of uncrowded is walking down a new york city sidewalk.

[pepperdawg]

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Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

AN Uzi with a Silencer and Scope....Is that Ernest Borgnine in the background?....damn I miss 80s action movies

[AdironRider]

Armchair analysis says that beaches aren't mountains.

1. Most beach areas have significant room to expand in the other direction. Vail has no room to sprawl.

2. Amenity value of a beach mostly comes from access and visibility--homes on the beach are significantly more expensive, followed by homes that can see and/or walk to the beach. Nobody is buying vacation homes 15 min from the beach. Mountains can be seen in all directions and the value is derived more from proximity: 15 minutes from a ski hill in one direction, 15 minutes to a nice MTB trailhead in another direction, 15 minutes from river access the other way...sounds like a dream to a second home buyer.

3. Beach towns are far more likely to have additional economic engines within commuting distance. E.g. ports for shipping, which brought other industry, which bought colleges, which brought business, etc.--all of which aren't tied to the waterfront and can start to spread out which opens the population up to using more of the space that may not have the "beach" value but is a good place to live for other reasons.

Mountain towns didn't develop like that as they were often tied to extractive use of the land...so even places like Jackson Hole that technically have lots of room to expand (ignoring issues of land ownership, resource availability, etc.) didn't actually do it 100 years ago and likely never will (rich NIMBY landowners, protected lands, etc.). And when a new unit goes up in Jackson it draws non-resident vacation home interest because it doesn't really matter where you are...you're still in Jackson (and in fact, the wealthiest homeowners often prefer to be 15 minutes away on some secluded acreage)

I think your first two points contradict each other, but I disagree with point two. I grew up 15 minutes from the beach. It was nice. The town 10 miles further inland was still only 45 minutes from Boston but it had, and continues to have, much lower property values because it is a 1/2 hour to the beach vs. 15 minutes.

I also don't think the commerce angle applies. That is like one or two cities per state that have a port of any consequence, and very rarely are there decent beaches nearby as good ports and good beaches require very different things geographically. Basically every other beach town is exactly the same, tourist attractions, t shirt shops, cheap food and some fisherman (substitute guides for fishermen in a mountain environment).

You can always add people until the thing that made the place special isn't special anymore.Unless your idea of uncrowded is walking down a new york city sidewalk.

I didn't realize the Tetons would disappear because someone built a six story building in town where you can't see said Tetons. Nevermind the 6 million tourists that roll through every year.

[summit]

One six story building is gonna solve all the problems, right? Tots
I'm sure it would be only one six story building and nothing more. Totally reasonable assumption to make.

[fastfred]

so the town of dillon in summit county colorado has a developer with big plans to build "high rise" buildings, commercial space, restaurants, affordable housing units, condos and hotel rooms

guess what the people who live there and love the sleeping dated tacky 1982 empty feel to the town have their pitch forks sharpened and are doing everything they can to stop the development in it's tracks

it's comical because its every nimbys wet dream shut the door keep everything as is the day I got here

the developer is asking for higher density and taller buildings if he can't do what he wants he'll just shit ball the project make a big mess skip the affordable units and build within the current rules which will create higher cost units meanwhile the old fuck living in his asbestos filled unit will keep dreaming of a new kitchen

[DBdude]

um the owners of a local large scale affordable housing development asked for a 6% plus rent rate increase, place is only a few years old. OMG the sky is falling so the fucked in the head never run a business before county commisioners go "hey maybe these units don't need to pay any property taxes so we can help keep the rents down." what kind of fucking idiot thinks that is a brilliant idea?

I think you mentioned houston a few posts back as somone who spends some time in houston I can assure you it is growing and is a mind fuck
the interest highways are next level and they loop and loop and loop people drive well over an hour each way to work so they can send their kids to "good schools" live in the tranquil suburbs in a massive house surrounded by people just like them

meanwhile I never venture far outside downtown midtown the heights montrose eado or the museum district walk everywhere or take the train sometimes I'll jump in the car and make the hour and fifteen minute drive to the beach

houston has no zoning and is a mess and floods everytime it rains

[DBdude]

so the town of dillon in summit county colorado has a developer with big plans to build "high rise" buildings, commercial space, restaurants, affordable housing units, condos and hotel rooms

guess what the people who live there and love the sleeping dated tacky 1982 empty feel to the town have their pitch forks sharpened and are doing everything they can to stop the development in it's tracks

it's comical because its every nimbys wet dream shut the door keep everything as is the day I got here

the developer is asking for higher density and taller buildings if he can't do what he wants he'll just shit ball the project make a big mess skip the affordable units and build within the current rules which will create higher cost units meanwhile the old fuck living in his asbestos filled unit will keep dreaming of a new kitchen

exactly - high density means building up - it's not kansas anymore and the externalities to envoke rules to keep change out have really negative side affects