Real Estate Crash thread

[dan_pdx]

The Wilson Mom is just saying the same old thinly veiled bullshit. She pays lip service to the haves and have nots but then gets to her real motivations at the end.

"Moratorium on development" is just Jackson code for the "shut the fucking door behind me". She has some nerve to bitch about affordable housing at Stilson being a problem because a fucking wildlife tunnel. She cares about the working class until it fucks up her view.

I had the same thought. If the environment there is really unique and in need of protection, no one should be living there at all. Doesn't matter if they're billionaires or in the service industry. Hell, a second home that only gets used four weeks a year might have less impact than the same square footage in affordable housing.

[Bunion 2020]

Many places in the west (ahem Bozeman) have become caricatures of themselves and no amount of lampooning will ever make a dent. Granted it was July 3rd when I had to look for something downtown on main street involving multiple bike shops and it was like being in a Fellini movie with every mountain town stereotype on display.
I was playing the role of bemused local and doing it rather well.

[rideit]

Ok, so, you are so off base it’s hilarious. She’s not a Wilson mom, and rents on the open market. She is poor as hell, really. She spearheaded the efforts to not have her building torn down in town, which was reasonable rent, and originally built for nurses.
Now that space is $4 M condos.
As to Stilson, if you can’t see the importance of maintaining what little is left of our intact ecosystem, then basically, you can/wont/don’t see the big picture of what is actually valuable in the region.
The Stilson thing is bullshit, if JHMR really wanted to, they still have gobs of real estate at the village that could be turned into hundreds of low income/worker housing if they chose to, but that’s not the money play, and does not cater to the vision of ‘only wealthy people allowed’ as far as living out there.
Habitat did it out there years ago.

[XXX-er]

Many places in the west (ahem Bozeman) have become caricatures of themselves and no amount of lampooning will ever make a dent. Granted it was July 3rd when I had to look for something downtown on main street involving multiple bike shops and it was like being in a Fellini movie with every mountain town stereotype on display.
I was playing the role of bemused local and doing it rather well.

say what you will of the ethos hopefully they supply good beta and amusment

[byates1]

Many places in the west (ahem Bozeman) have become caricatures of themselves and no amount of lampooning will ever make a dent. Granted it was July 3rd when I had to look for something downtown on main street involving multiple bike shops and it was like being in a Fellini movie with every mountain town stereotype on display.
I was playing the role of bemused local and doing it rather well.

Just drove bzn/harlowtown/Lewistown/Jordan/miles city/bzn.

The Judith mtns are super beautiful and quiet. Def chilling there more.

Bozeman is only 10 min from MT. Holy shit Jordan miles etc is keeping it real.

[Bunion 2020]

^^^ I think I had read somewhere that there is a TGR store on Main. I can confirm it.

[byates1]

I met Steve jones in there a couple yrs ago. They gave us a bunch of merch I brought down to kokomas uller fest in Jackson

[neckdeep]

Hell, a second home that only gets used four weeks a year might have less impact than the same square footage in affordable housing.

By itself, perhaps. But, in the aggregate, thousands of unoccupied vacation homes require a small army to build and maintain and very few members of that army can afford to live in Jackson. Thousands of vehicles, every day.....day after day...that's an impact.

Jackson isn't "green" and its impacts are absolutely massive. This town gulps gasoline like a person breathes air. Can you imagine how many collective miles are being driven every day just to keep the town staffed? Jackson is the opposite of green, in reality. But, don't worry. They banned plastic grocery bags!

Stilson. What a fucking joke. The concept of the "wildlife corridor" being relegated by mansions to share space with the region's transportation arteries is a bad joke. Typical, ooops we painted ourselves into a corner bullshit.

[Buster Highmen]

[Foggy_Goggles]

An observation from driving around a bit on the holiday weekend...these somewhat downvalley neighborhood STRs represent a dream that many of the renters don't have at home. Houses full of people just kicking it, playing street hockey with the off leaf dogs, having a BBQ enjoying the baller kitchen and the media room in the basement.

Who know if it is the chicken or the egg, but this is what it looks like around Grand County on the weekends and holidays. I talk to my customers, second home neighbors and so on and it seems like their regularly life (generally in the Denver Metro) has, in their opinion, become such a grind that an escape is exactly what they need.

This seems pretty different that the wintertime STR peeps who tend to do the ski, apres thing. I only bring it up in the Real Estate thread because perhaps we are missing a bit of what the demand for the STR is when we talk about condos, resort overlay areas and high density upvalley development strategy.

The do nothing Sunday afternoon dream of a G&T in the backyard and a nap on the couch watching golf is exactly the vacation some people are looking for.

[Foggy_Goggles]

An observation from driving around a bit on the holiday weekend...these somewhat downvalley neighborhood STRs represent a dream that many of the renters don't have at home. Houses full of people just kicking it, playing street hockey with the off leaf dogs, having a BBQ enjoying the baller kitchen and the media room in the basement.

Who know if it is the chicken or the egg, but this is what it looks like around Grand County on the weekends and holidays. I talk to my customers, second home neighbors and so on and it seems like their regularly life (generally in the Denver Metro) has, in their opinion, become such a grind that an escape is exactly what they need.

This seems pretty different that the wintertime STR peeps who tend to do the ski, apres thing. I only bring it up in the Real Estate thread because perhaps we are missing a bit of what the demand for the STR is when we talk about condos, resort overlay areas and high density upvalley development strategy.

The do nothing Sunday afternoon dream of a G&T in the backyard and a nap on the couch watching golf is exactly the vacation some people are looking for.

[californiagrown]

it seems like their regularly life (generally in the Denver Metro) has, in their opinion, become such a grind that an escape is exactly what they need.

This seems pretty different that the wintertime STR peeps who tend to do the ski, apres thing. I only bring it up in the Real Estate thread because perhaps we are missing a bit of what the demand for the STR is when we talk about condos, resort overlay areas and high density upvalley development strategy.

The do nothing Sunday afternoon dream of a G&T in the backyard and a nap on the couch watching golf is exactly the vacation some people are looking for.

Heh. I went on a family ski trip with some college buddies this past winter to a smaller Ikonic resort. We used to party very hard in college and had big plans of going hard in the village for apre.

Turns out, now that we are all a couple decades removed from college, all have very stressful careers and lives, and had at least 1 kid under the age of 5 in tow... a shockingly small amount of partying went down, and it was lights out at 10pm, lights on at 630am. We rented a big condo in the village so it would be ski-in/out and also walkable to the bars... we had a single beer at a bar and only ordered restaurant takeout once, and made dinner at the condo twice.

For as many folks that go to mtn towns to party and patronize the restaurants/bars/shops, there are a ton more folks who see the STR option as a way to have a more laid-back relaxing vacation where they can have a lazy weekend "at home" outside of the main skiing/fishing/hiking/bike activity for the day. So, we didnt put much $$ into the local bars and restaurants, but we did clog up the liftlines, poach the local's stashes, and clogged up the grocery store lines.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Yep, and perhaps there is correlation to the increase age and wealth of the stereotypical visitor? Is the Classic Spring Spreak or Pile the Kids in the Mini Van mountain vacation even a thing anymore?

I'm just wondering out load if what is though of as collateral damage of STR proliferation (overrun busy residential neighborhoods) is exactly the product that is in demand.

[fastfred]

peoples habits have changed
sure during the winter it might be hard to get into a bar and resturant but outside those 4 months it's not too difficult anymore

I went out saturday and it was disgusting typical burger and a beer place in breck almost a 100 bucks for two of us
watched the cook walk out to his car and sit there for a few minutes and go back inside repeat over and over
the owner was there and I wanted to say something at least the waitresses were pretty and the bartender was on it

people/families etc can pile into a STR cook way better food for 1/10 of the price and relax
STR's where I live a party of the equation and they serve a purpose on many levels
making them the boogie man and the reason for all the ski town ills is total bullshit

my brother is coming out in a week or so I asked him what he wants to do
his answer NOTHING
imagine that crushed by hustling kids around non stop working and all the other bs in life and people just want to check out
not the drugs and alcohol check out that so many people rely on
they want to forget about everything they want to see great scenery they want to go inside lay down they want to throw the ball in the street maybe do some activities
shit that bores me and I've been doing every day for almost 30 years

I drive off into the middle of no where and do the same thing

[XXX-er]

the cook was going out for a dart cuz for some reason they all smoke and Anthony Bourdaine did so its ok if you talked to the owner buddy would proabbly tell you he is lucky to have that nicotine addict and if cook quits owner is FUBARd

besides the $$$ drinking too much was never a good idea and as we age its really not a good idea, at some point every body i know is on meds of some kind, the local craft brews know i'm one and done,

[Buster Highmen]

I just thought it was interesting that Porter called out hedge fund investors as being a factor in rising cost of housing. She normally has receipts for her statements,

[Foggy_Goggles]

Seems like Freddy is witnessing the same thing. I can totally relate being a much lamer version of my former self. On my day of I got up at 5, had a healthy breakfast, did so yoga, went on a long moto ride, came home, made elk burgers, had one beer, did laundry, watched the tour and felt like I was winning.

My zip code is 80478. But that in the AirBnB search and look at prices for this weekend. Seems pretty affordable to me? Sniff test says many of those property don't cash flow at current mortgage rates. None of those properties are owned by hedge funds. Not enough return.

So its complicated. Any everyone wants to point the finger at someone else. I'm just making a local observation that I don't think the traditional hotel, small condo is meeting the needs of many Colorado Mountain Vacationers.

[XXX-er]

My zip code is 80478. But that in the AirBnB search and look at prices for this weekend. Seems pretty affordable to me? Sniff test says many of those property don't cash flow at current mortgage rates. None of those properties are owned by hedge funds. Not enough return.
.

yeah i don't think hedge funds own or run STR's , not only is there not enough return its too risky in that a jurisdiction could make an anti STR decisions at any time

Ferinstance the province of BC has declared war on the STR with legislation and shit

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Many places in the west (ahem Bozeman) have become caricatures of themselves and no amount of lampooning will ever make a dent. Granted it was July 3rd when I had to look for something downtown on main street involving multiple bike shops and it was like being in a Fellini movie with every mountain town stereotype on display.
I was playing the role of bemused local and doing it rather well.

Honestly, downtown BZN has been quiet all summer until the last week. Id love hard data from BZN STR owners, but I would imagine numbers are down. 2021 was probably the high water mark.

[skaredshtles]

Honestly, downtown BZN has been quiet all summer until the last week. Id love hard data from BZN STR owners, but I would imagine numbers are down. 2021 was probably the high water mark.

Didn't Bozeman do a crackdown on STR recently?

[Foggy_Goggles]

Are their Dannos in Bozeone that have a second home and defer it's expense with STR income? The Grand County market is dominated by the Denver Second Home Owner but I'm not sure if their is a Montana equivalent.

[XXX-er]

here up narth its a 13 hr drive to any major market and air fares are stupid high enough to generaly keeps the riff raff out

and in

[east or bust]

Are their Dannos in Bozeone that have a second home and defer it's expense with STR income? The Grand County market is dominated by the Denver Second Home Owner but I'm not sure if their is a Montana equivalent.

What's the MT equivalent of Grand County? Big Sky? Maybe. But I don't think you can compare Bozeman to Denver. The economies are on complete different scales. Better comparison would be Boise peeps with a 2nd home in Sun Valley.

Denver is a booming economy compared to any western town, really need to compare to other cities, which there aren't many of. It makes sense that people from Denver can afford a getaway place considering there are careers available to support it. It'd be like someone working in NYC and having a place in Montauk. Or someone in IF owning a cabin in IP. To me doesn't seem out of the ordinary at all and really depends on the local economy.

[Buster Highmen]

yeah i don't think hedge funds own or run STR's ,

I'll take Porter's claims over yours in this regard.

[Foggy_Goggles]

E or B, that's what I'm feeling. I was reading an article (no vetted) talking about the increased in households earning <$150k in something like the last 5 years. Arvada and Lakewood were in the 10 ten on a percentage basis.

It really has become part of the Millennium Lifestyle. I worked on a home where the family was the first in their friend group to have a cabin in the mountains. Watching them operate was interesting. They were good people but they were so stereotypical that they could have been in the Madison and Levi from Lakewood YouTube.

It just speaks to the income of the local workers looking for a primary residence not being able to compete with the more wealthy city folks shopping for a second home.