Real Estate Crash thread

[yeahman]

Eventually I will be buying a mountain condo (when I move in with the GF), and originally was thinking 2-3 BR and airbnb it when we're not using it. Because the prices are so crazy, that is really the only way I can afford a place that big (ie need some rental income). I mean, I wouldn't buy a place where I couldn't pay the mortgage entirely in a pinch, but to comfortably afford it, rental income would be required. Lately, been thinking that it might make more sense to sacrifice space and buy a 1 BR condo that I can completely afford without needing rental income, so I don't have to deal with and worry about that hassle.

Buy the three bedroom!! You can be like everybody else I know who bought a ski condo and basically quit skiing so they could rent it out.

[skaredshtles]

oh, you poor thing, do you need a hug?

Did I mention it was hot as BALLS every day?

[Bunion 2020]

Just back from looking at a project.
Turns out that fucking TV show Yellowstone is somewhat accurate.

[byates1]

^ he's a natural gas billionaire who has ca, the place you were at, And 5 other ranches, and God knows what else.

They hired me at one rate, and on day 4 said oh by the way...

Put 5000 extra waddles in and charge them another 30k

[Bunion 2020]

I don't install. I tell people where to install and what to install.

BTW it is Wattles, not Waddles (common error).

And 5K of wattles would pencil out to about $ 715,300.00.

[byates1]

Sounds reasonable given the labor crisis and seemingly every fucknut wanting to be colter wall/John Dutton

[Bunion 2020]

I fucked up.

$ 865K.

Split it with you.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Just because you enjoy the product (AirBnB) does have provide reason for its undocumented existence. Call it what you want (Rental House), it is a commercial operation.

Real Estate is regional, maybe even local. In Grand County, 80% of the homes are not primary residences. In the 30 years I've lived here, one motel has been build and a few have closed. There have always been STR condos but how it is overwhelming.

Danno, unless you plan on giving up and renting for the premium dates (holidays etc.), I'd say don't bother with the STR. Just getting a cleaner will be a problem. And yes, the second homeowner that need the income to "afford it" is part of the bid for that type of property that raises prices.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

I fucked up.

$ 865K.

Split it with you.

Are those the buffalo resistant wattles like we had to use in the park?

[Foggy_Goggles]

Oh, and the STR has fundamentally changed the profile of the visitor to the Winter Park area.

We are a second rate mountain town with generally, "not much to do" other than ski, bike, fish hike, snowmobile, raft and enjoy outside. What we don't have has always been a draw.

But now, the nice house is the vacation. The 7 TV's, the hot tub and baller kitchen. Its like the lazy, rainy Sunday afternoon is everyday. The house party weekend is pretty normal. Even for families. You see their habits after they leave. Residual party everywhere. Pizza boxes, edibles and so on.

[Meadow Skipper]

^ This.

I believe Airbnb raises housing costs by decreasing the supply of long term rentals. Less supply generally increases prices. And I also believe Airbnb is bad for neighborhoods by replacing people that live there (and have more at stake there) with transients.

I get the feeling a lot of people that are favorable to Airbnb don’t live near STRs.

And it’s not like there aren’t a bunch of shitty Airbnbs.

[Mazderati]

I stayed at an STR where the power went out for a day. The owners were unconcerned.

Some of the pulling and washing sheets STRs require is legal maneuvering around services which would put them in hotel territory.

[Foggy_Goggles]

A different way perhaps of saying the same thing that tends to offend less property owners in that it is STRs are actually changing the demand structure.

I think of supply as the housing stock in aggregate. It is, in the short term, fixed save for new construction. But the revenue stream associated with the STR brings two new customers to the market that compete for that fixed housing stock.

"The Investor" for whom the property is a non emotional asset generating cash flow from STR income

"The Danno's" whom could not afford the property without supplementary STR income.

[Bunion 2020]

Are those the buffalo resistant wattles like we had to use in the park?

Nope, just the crappy straw stuffed into plastic netting.

[goldenboy]

"The Investor" for whom the property is a non emotional asset generating cash flow from STR income

"The Danno's" whom could not afford the property without supplementary STR income.

I tend to work with a lot more Dannos than investors. Off seasons are way too long in CB, no matter how much you kill it in the on seasons, there are better ways to make an investment if that's the only goal. That said, the Dannos can afford it, but they would prefer if they make enough income to cover HOA dues and maybe the taxes, just to soften the monthly blow.

The Dannos I've worked with that decided on the less expensive 1 bedroom invariably want some something bigger after a while. It feels too tight when their kids get older, or they can't bring friends and family, etc.

[XXX-er]

I tend to work with a lot more Dannos than investors. Off seasons are way too long in CB, no matter how much you kill it in the on seasons, there are better ways to make an investment if that's the only goal.

I often ride the chair with an old chartered accountant who long ago told me owning/ renting out an LTR doesnt pay, I wonder what he has got to say about STR ?

[yeahman]

Is this an attempt to discourage STRs?

[XXX-er]

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck ... its usually a duck

up here you are capitol gains exempt only on your principal res and you cant deduct mortgage interest or anything really except what it costs you to move closer to where you will work

and BTW the BC gov has declared war on STR's

[MiddleOfNight]

2024 colorado legislature considered a bill that would have changed property tax classification for non-owner occupied str's from residential to commercial lodging rates (it failed).. i imagine 2025 will consider it again, along with vacancy tax, pillow tax, property transfer fees, industry tax, etc etc for a lot of the reasons listed above: impact on housing supply/demand/prices, impact to local infrastructure/services, lack of funding of gvt subsidized housing programs, etc.
str industry and realtor's lobbyists will have kittens again - but it's an interesting debate.
unoccupied second homes, remote workforce, str's, r.e. investment company money (among many other factors) are all contributing to financial and housing problems (crises?) in some colorado mountain towns. i have no clue what the solution is.

[rideit]

Proper rant here, written by a friend.

https://slate.com/business/2024/07/j...y-housing.html

She is rightfully bitter.

[byates1]

Solid rant. At this point, we all know Jackson is what it is. Gone are the days of what used to be. The Almighty Dollar rules supreme. It's a freezing cold rodeo drive. Such is life. If my property 10/30/50x'd I'd cash out and move to Taos.

[skaredshtles]

Proper rant here, written by a friend.

https://slate.com/business/2024/07/j...y-housing.html

She is rightfully bitter.

Time to dig a tunnel and run a train... oh, wait.

[neckdeep]

Proper rant here, written by a friend.

https://slate.com/business/2024/07/j...y-housing.html

She is rightfully bitter.

Yeah, but she still a home girl. It's a start, but not enough. Not many who live there will come out and say what needs to be said: Jackson sucks ass. It's time to bury the myths. Jackson is, without question, THE signifier of lameness in the West. The cool town that got buttfucked by developers??? More like the town that couldn't stop bending over and grabbing its ass cheeks. Jackson's home owners got what they wanted. They whored themselves out and now it's too late to start complaining about how their butt leaks.

I fucking hate the place and all the Connor Roy types who made it what it is. It's a metastasizing tumor of greed spreading its disease to all the surrounding communities.

Now that's a "rant".

[Foggy_Goggles]

I'll give Wilson Chick a 2/10 for the State of the State Not Really a Rant

Neck gets a 7/10 Its got come good elements like a bit of self loathing and name drop truth bomb but it needs more, maybe some imbedded hypocrisy and some more burn it down fuck you people call outs.

[AdironRider]

The Wilson Mom is just saying the same old thinly veiled bullshit. She pays lip service to the haves and have nots but then gets to her real motivations at the end.

"Moratorium on development" is just Jackson code for the "shut the fucking door behind me". She has some nerve to bitch about affordable housing at Stilson being a problem because a fucking wildlife tunnel. She cares about the working class until it fucks up her view.