Ukraine

[summit]

Wild speculation, but maybe they figured out how to put a S-300 (or a Meteor) on a Fulcrum and launch it on a GCI vector (fed by Western forces) with the seeker going active for terminal guidance.

Or maybe it was a roving SAM trap.

[LongShortLong]

Analysts at Center for a New American Security (CNAS) discuss Ukraine war in 2024 and its implications.

"As 2023 came to a close, many people began to characterize the war in Ukraine as a stalemate. Though it is true that very little has recently changed along the front lines and that neither side will be able to make a breakthrough, this label is misleading. Indeed, as 2024 takes hold both Moscow and Kyiv are working to rebuild their offensive capacity."

The key point I took away is that Russia has switched to a war economy, and win or lose, they will have a war economy. The tank, artillery, missile, and drone factories are built. European nations are two years behind Russia in the switch to war production. Also, no other European country has as much land area or the size military as Ukraine started with. Most nations that lose as much land as Ukraine did cease to exist. For the slow members of the crowd, whether or not Russia uses its military for war, it will use it to extract concessions. Europeans must counter if they don't want to concede.

[m2711c]

agreed.

[Crusty]

Afghanistan is still here.

[MultiVerse]

Comparing Ukraine with Afghanistan is total bullshit

[highangle]

"War Economy" -- Russians will gladly sled out their dead if The Apparatus is vicious enough. But that could be said about anyone, as a casual stroll through suburban North Korea might reveal.


RuZZians will have a tough time making Russia great again without American Lend Lease.

Lotta careless smoking in Russia too.

[highangle]

Shooting down that Russian AWACS plane is going to hurt Russia long-term. They only have 9 or 10 of those planes, and the crews are highly trained and not easy to replace. Plus now that Ukraine shot this one down is going to make Russia pull them way back, and less effective.

Curious about the whole story. Nothing completely adds up.


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They got a 3-star too - someone with the rank to command and control lots of assets.

And the IL22 ecm platform they blyated - looks like the shrapnel originated above and a bit forward of the tail section, as well as a bit off-axis, no? Suspect massive onboard hardware damage. This backed up by pilot recording requesting fire and ambulance at emergency runway.

Now's the time for NATO to challenge Russian airspace and map elint, ahead of Chinese and Russian challenges to US and others.

[Meconium]

Guessing it Iran keeps heating up, supply chain to Russia slows or stops.

[uglymoney]

Shooting down that Russian AWACS plane is going to hurt Russia long-term. They only have 9 or 10 of those planes, and the crews are highly trained and not easy to replace. Plus now that Ukraine shot this one down is going to make Russia pull them way back, and less effective.

Curious about the whole story. Nothing completely adds up.


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Wild speculation, but maybe they figured out how to put a S-300 (or a Meteor) on a Fulcrum and launch it on a GCI vector (fed by Western forces) with the seeker going active for terminal guidance.

Or maybe it was a roving SAM trap.

Fascinating.

More thoughts fingering what might be...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=219c64993566

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[The Reverend Floater]

Guessing it Iran keeps heating up, supply chain to Russia slows or stops.

Guessing the US and Israel aren't going to get in the way if the Pakis want to rumble with Iran.

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[Meconium]

Fascinating.

More thoughts fingering what might be...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=219c64993566

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And some trolling https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1...209052088?s=20

[Viva]

Kinda late for Christmas gifts, but still pretty k00l.

Dunno how much contributes to the country's war economy.

https://www.etsy.com/au/listing/1527...ctive_19&crt=1

[Meconium]

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky...mp-to-ukraine/

[highangle]

Even if he didn't have 91 felony raps on his head, Trump never ever had the courage to do anything that might put him in harm's way.

Zelensky is just taking a free kick at Russia's nuts when he exposes another Putin's Boy as a massive coward.

[PB]

Turns out, war is for losers.

[highangle]

From 2018:

[LongShortLong]

Stumbled onto Kamil Galeev again
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...227723434.html

He continues to produce interesting ideas about Russia's war against Ukraine. He can be a bit scatterbrained on twitter. I recommend his posts if you like to think about things.

In this one, he comments that the western failure to confront Russia will be interpreted as US weakness and unwillingness (or inability) to defend its allies. The result being that East Asian allies may decide to acquiesce to future Chinese demands rather than resist. As resistance would lead to a war where the US vacillates, and offers weak support, that results in destruction and loss to its allies. Its allies aren't dumb, and may perceive US weakness and conclude it's better to skip the resistance and destruction steps.

Also, he singles out manufacturing capacity, specifically machining, as a key input to Russia's warmaking capability. All of Russia's machine tools are western, as western nations make the overwhelming majority of high-end tools. He says the western toolmakers continue to support Russia, as the sanctions don't preclude it.

[Meconium]

I question the Western tooling. China is no joke in that department.

[irul&ublo]

I question the Western tooling. China is no joke in that department.

Hell yeah…just go to Harbor Freight!

[uglymoney]

Lift blog shared this link. Skiing in Ukraine during wartime.

https://www.wsiu.org/2024-01-27/betw...yiv-ski-resort

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[Harry]

Lift blog shared this link. Skiing in Ukraine during wartime.

https://www.wsiu.org/2024-01-27/betw...yiv-ski-resort

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9 y/o boy = ”I like skiing with my friends and hitting jumps along the side of the runs.”

Kids are kids everywhere on planet earth.


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[highangle]

I question the Western tooling. China is no joke in that department.

Copying German lathes and Japanese forging hammers only get you so far against the institutional experience of Lockheed Litton GE Electric Boat Company Rhinemetal Weiler Tyne Mitsubishi...


I read somewhere that the best source of beryllium flouride for Deep UV lithography China pioneered...is in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.

You may have read that Chinese supercomputing [hence AI] is currently bottlenecked by Chinese ram die size/speed of light, while Taiwanese chipmaking suffers from significantly less constraints? Did you go "Hmmmm"?

[rod9301]

Read an interesting article in the Economist about how W Europe is actually positioned fairly well re: natural gas supply. I thought Pootin had more leverage.

Positioned well as far as supply, but a lot is lng, which cost a lot to ship.

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[uglymoney]

The occupation shifting to find out mode soon.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...496109063?s=19

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...raine-00138566

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[Meconium]

So the 250 pound Bomb/Fragmentation multipurpose warhead is about how much boom?