Real Estate Crash thread

[byates1]

Here's a sweet pad for 570,000.

You get a teardown, w a tiny lot, garbage houses next to you, super busy street.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...5_M82054-55234

Unreal.

[alpinevibes]

I think I'm less anonymous than Freddy and has a bit less money tied up in the game but who knows? I am an elected official, does that make me a politician?

I think Schuss generally has his finger on the pulse. There is so much emotion involved. It's pretty hard to know what people truly think collectively as its only the people that scream the loudest that get heard. Stereotypically, many of these relatively new to the mountains peeps are running scared. They think first it's multifamily followed shortly thereafter my pit bulls, open air drug markets, homeless encampments and the absolute worst...non whites under the age of 40.

Other issue that looks like it starting to manifest around here is that market rate non subsidized multi family rentals are in competition with The Projects. Winterpark has a absolute goat fuck of a project going on right now where they can't get their own building CO'd. They went from granite counter top missing middle type units to the Motel 6. Income restricted studios are renting for $1800ish and they can't fill them.

So yeah, its a giant cluster fuck with everyone pointing the finger at everyone else.

It's sad to see the planning manager for housing, of all people, lead out the fight against density and added height. I lived in the Wellington neighborhood years ago and while it's great to have the space and SFH neighborhood feel, that's not that realistic for housing projects in expensive resort towns 20 years on. Breck does have space but they can also capitalize on building some density and height in certain spots.

We're seeing that competition between free market multi family and affordable/deed restricted projects here in the RFV. Just shows how high the tide has risen... Not so much in Aspen, but then again up here we now have the projections for the much-debated 277 unit, 467 bedroom Lumberyard affordable housing project penciling out to $350M minimum or up to $750M if built in phases over 26 years. $1.6M per bedroom build cost against roughly $1000/mo per bedroom income - solid math. https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/...7f5ece6c9.html

[fastfred]

affordable housing is a myth
especially in mtn towns

[fastfred]

Shoot. Should I start working every day instead of riding my bike and rock climbing on weekdays? Are the people who are taking work calls while eating their take-out dinner happier than the ones who spent the day going for a bike ride and then cooking dinner from their garden?

It really seems that people have lost sight of the concept of "enough". Like, when you get enough, let off the fucking gas. If society as a whole did this instead of constantly pushing for more, we wouldn't be running out of planet.

is this why I'm a miserable cunt and have been for the past month?

[Foggy_Goggles]

That's fucking insane. If that's what the City of Aspen want's to do, that is none of my concern, I guess? Literally, at any cost. But that then becomes the model and people say, "Look, it's expensive". But hey, if that's what it takes to have a smiling waiter and a good looking cart girl, send them the bill.

It's just become so narrowly focused. It's just government as developer, property owner, landlord and whatever else for the reason of "it's what we do". Around here, Granby just allocated funds to study the study produces by the multi municipality housing partnership.

If affordability was the true goal, we should just give a monthly housing stipend to lottery winners and just do away with the Housing Projects side of things. Somebody should do the math on that. If you gave $1k month to 1k families that's only $12mill a year. If that enough of an income subsidy to enough people to keep the teachers teaching and the snow shovelers shoveling? Can we then just put FEMA trailers/park models/tiny homes/cabins/high density/lofts whatever the fuck the market wants to build?

Who want to sign up for picking the tenants? Could it be like college? SAT scores, interviews, how about one of those "whoa is me" essays about how your family is Mountainy AF(tm) and this is your dream?

[Foggy_Goggles]

The problem with the "enough is enough" argument is two fold. One, everyone is gonna draw the line in a different place. I've got customers who admit that they'll never "have" to work a day in their life and neither will their kids. They play at work because it's what they do. Two, the future is so uncertain and future cost escalation for thinks like health care are potentially so astronomical that other than those with true Fuck You Money, even those with a $1mill in the bank keep grinding because, yeah, you might fucking need it.

[californiagrown]

Shoot. Should I start working every day instead of riding my bike and rock climbing on weekdays? Are the people who are taking work calls while eating their take-out dinner happier than the ones who spent the day going for a bike ride and then cooking dinner from their garden?

It really seems that people have lost sight of the concept of "enough". Like, when you get enough, let off the fucking gas. If society as a whole did this instead of constantly pushing for more, we wouldn't be running out of planet.

The problem with the "enough is enough" argument is two fold. One, everyone is gonna draw the line in a different place. I've got customers who admit that they'll never "have" to work a day in their life and neither will their kids. They play at work because it's what they do. Two, the future is so uncertain and future cost escalation for thinks like health care are potentially so astronomical that other than those with true Fuck You Money, even those with a $1mill in the bank keep grinding because, yeah, you might fucking need it.

For many of the very successful and wealthy folks that i have been around, they keep working because they love it. They are REALLY FUCKING GOOD (world class) at their career field and absolutley love doing their job and succeeding. Their career IS their hobby, it is the place they get the most satisfaction/contentment/fullfillment/etc. I know a bunch of folks who made mid-high 8 figures by their 40s, were forced to retire by their wives and families, got bored, and went back to work a couple years later. They love building a company, they love doing M&A, the love doing whatever they were REALLY good at in the first place that made them all their money. I cant really blame them- the most fun i have at my desk job is when i am killing it... that said there has never been a morning before work where i havent wanted to do something else besides my job haha. You and I would view what "they" do as a grind and pain and a shitty life where they are killing themselves to only enjoy themselves when they finally stop working... but what if their work is their enjoyment and they are having a blast working and creating, and retirement will be the pain/boredom/struggle part of their life... not their working carreer?

[Danno]

Boulder just got rid of a well known rule, the "no more than 3 unrelated people in a house" rule, which many people have frequently blamed (in part) for Boulder's fucked up housing situation. They changed the number to 5. Not sure if it will have any effect.

[skaredshtles]

The problem with the "enough is enough" argument is two fold. One, everyone is gonna draw the line in a different place. I've got customers who admit that they'll never "have" to work a day in their life and neither will their kids. They play at work because it's what they do. Two, the future is so uncertain and future cost escalation for thinks like health care are potentially so astronomical that other than those with true Fuck You Money, even those with a $1mill in the bank keep grinding because, yeah, you might fucking need it.

I'd be retired now if not for the healthcare travesty/debacle/bullshit.

[fastfred]

For many of the very successful and wealthy folks that i have been around, they keep working because they love it. They are REALLY FUCKING GOOD (world class) at their career field and absolutley love doing their job and succeeding. Their career IS their hobby, it is the place they get the most satisfaction/contentment/fullfillment/etc. I know a bunch of folks who made mid-high 8 figures by their 40s, were forced to retire by their wives and families, got bored, and went back to work a couple years later. They love building a company, they love doing M&A, the love doing whatever they were REALLY good at in the first place that made them all their money. I cant really blame them- the most fun i have at my desk job is when i am killing it... that said there has never been a morning before work where i havent wanted to do something else besides my job haha. You and I would view what "they" do as a grind and pain and a shitty life where they are killing themselves to only enjoy themselves when they finally stop working... but what if their work is their enjoyment and they are having a blast working and creating, and retirement will be the pain/boredom/struggle part of their life... not their working carreer?

one of my ex's is this she goes to work everyday
her investments pay 10x more than her yearly salary
day she was born there was millions in the bank for her family is one of the largest land owners in the country the family sold their bank years ago to a big bank and it was a massive windfall for her they lost boat loads of money when castro took over cuba so guess what they all move to ski towns

[Core Shot]

affordable housing is a myth
especially in mtn towns

Yeah. I guess.
I crack up when habitat builds two homes when five hundred are needed. I also laugh at deed restricted homes and apartments.
What we need more of is market rate apartments.
That’s worker housing.

[Skistack]

It's sad to see the planning manager for housing, of all people, lead out the fight against density and added height. I lived in the Wellington neighborhood years ago and while it's great to have the space and SFH neighborhood feel, that's not that realistic for housing projects in expensive resort towns 20 years on. Breck does have space but they can also capitalize on building some density and height in certain spots.

We're seeing that competition between free market multi family and affordable/deed restricted projects here in the RFV. Just shows how high the tide has risen... Not so much in Aspen, but then again up here we now have the projections for the much-debated 277 unit, 467 bedroom Lumberyard affordable housing project penciling out to $350M minimum or up to $750M if built in phases over 26 years. $1.6M per bedroom build cost against roughly $1000/mo per bedroom income - solid math. https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/...7f5ece6c9.html

That is incomprehensible. Their build now price is $1.2m per unit.

We build very nice apartments in the front range for less than $250k a unit. Hell, we just completed a 17 story luxury building in RiNo at $375k a unit.


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[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Here's a sweet pad for 570,000.

You get a teardown, w a tiny lot, garbage houses next to you, super busy street.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...5_M82054-55234

Unreal.

Question for you, can you spot the difference between these two places?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...80700722_zpid/

[Toadman]

I'd be retired now if not for the healthcare travesty/debacle/bullshit.

There are probably a lot of folks that would like to retire early but for that pesky cost of healthcare insurance thingy. I do know some folks that made bank by getting on the dotcom band wagon early and retired early. A friend of the wife worked for a small regional bank in NYC, started out has just a teller while in HS and college. His dad was a regional VP. After the kid graduated, he got moved into the mortgage dept., and then because of nepotism, was quickly promoted up the ranks. Then good old dad came through when word got out the bank was going to be sold. Got the kid promoted to a jr. VP, which then qualified him for a sweetheart buy out package. He hasn't worked a day in his life the past 25 plus years.

[neckdeep]

That is incomprehensible. Their build now price is $1.2m per unit.

We build very nice apartments in the front range for less than $250k a unit. Hell, we just completed a 17 story luxury building in RiNo at $375k a unit.


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That's the skilled labor shortage biting them in the ass. In Jackson, unskilled no-english makes at least $25 for construction. Skilled labor is ridiculous expensive.

The mtn town guy who replaces the motor in your hot tub makes double what a certified airplane mechanic earns in the midwest.

[oldnew_guy]

That's fucking insane. If that's what the City of Aspen want's to do, that is none of my concern, I guess? Literally, at any cost. But that then becomes the model and people say, "Look, it's expensive". But hey, if that's what it takes to have a smiling waiter and a good looking cart girl, send them the bill.

It's just become so narrowly focused. It's just government as developer, property owner, landlord and whatever else for the reason of "it's what we do". Around here, Granby just allocated funds to study the study produces by the multi municipality housing partnership.

If affordability was the true goal, we should just give a monthly housing stipend to lottery winners and just do away with the Housing Projects side of things. Somebody should do the math on that. If you gave $1k month to 1k families that's only $12mill a year. If that enough of an income subsidy to enough people to keep the teachers teaching and the snow shovelers shoveling? Can we then just put FEMA trailers/park models/tiny homes/cabins/high density/lofts whatever the fuck the market wants to build?

Who want to sign up for picking the tenants? Could it be like college? SAT scores, interviews, how about one of those "whoa is me" essays about how your family is Mountainy AF(tm) and this is your dream?

It's all well and good as long as Aspen taxpayers are paying the bill, but I think we have better places to send federal and state grants for housing than to a tourist town full of rich property owners who can't get out of their own way.

From the article:

City Council will also have to consider whether to pursue outside funding for the project. Ott said that all the scenarios presented on Monday excluded any potential contributions from the state, the federal government, or community partners.
Councilmembers noted that state and federal housing grants can be conditioned on the income levels of housing project residents. If the city pursues those grants, it could have to change the proportions of low-, medium-, and high-income units in the buildings. Everson noted that the state has developed new funding sources for middle-income housing, which he said is particularly helpful for Aspen.

[Foggy_Goggles]

That is incomprehensible. Their build now price is $1.2m per unit.

We build very nice apartments in the front range for less than $250k a unit. Hell, we just completed a 17 story luxury building in RiNo at $375k a unit.


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Thanks for those data points. What's not in those numbers? Land, infrastructure, utilities?

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[alpinevibes]

It's all well and good as long as Aspen taxpayers are paying the bill, but I think we have better places to send federal and state grants for housing than to a tourist town full of rich property owners who can't get out of their own way.

From the article:

APCHA housing is predominantly funded through a real estate transfer tax that takes 1% from the sale of any free-market unit. 2022's median SFH sales price in Aspen was $15.25M - so there's a nice pot of money generated every year, but not $300M or $750M.

The potential of outside funding/private-public partnership is a possibility, but more of a hail mary as Council faces what to do about the project. I don't see it coming together in a way that has significant private funding, but maybe they can figure something out. They wouldn't likely try or be able to tap into any other public funding besides bonds.

What's crazy is that I live in the largest APCHA development (170 units ownership condo units currently, with 79 being sold this fall), and across 16 years and three phases these were built for around $500k per unit against total project costs. This last phase started construction in 2021 and will probably be more like $50-60M total, so $700k cost averaged per unit, but still nothing close to the current projections for the Lumberyard.

Thanks for those data points. What's not in those numbers? Land, infrastructure, utilities?

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Correct - $350M/$750M is total project costs, besides the land which the city already spent $18M in 2008 and $11M in 2019 to purchase in two pieces.

[alpinevibes]

affordable housing is a myth
especially in mtn towns

It's affordable here and works properly if the planning and funding is lined up with pacing that works for construction+funding timelines. But it's become way way harder and more expensive than it was a decade or two ago. But that's not really that different from free market construction in any desirable county/region at a broad level. Shits expensive.

[Foggy_Goggles]

BS...look at the stated costs of the Denver units. That difference needs to be explained but nobody in the "affordable" game wants to speak to that.

Any good conversation relies on transparency, honestly and a bit of humility. Tax payers want spreadsheets and detailed budgeted. Instead they get Executive Sessions, Workshops, Consultants, Pizza Parties and blow jobs for everyone when the picture with the big check and the Golden Shovel makes it in the paper.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[mcphee]

^whats the site development and infrastructure cost like in a mountain town vs an established city. I’m not being a smartass for once.
I agree that the development cost per unit is outrageous but how inflated are the mountain development costs?

[goldenboy]

That is incomprehensible. Their build now price is $1.2m per unit.

We build very nice apartments in the front range for less than $250k a unit. Hell, we just completed a 17 story luxury building in RiNo at $375k a unit.


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Construction labor in the mountains is pretty crazy. A local company just did our roof and subbed most of it out to a bunch of dudes from Greeley. That math really shouldn't work...

[Skistack]

Thanks for those data points. What's not in those numbers? Land, infrastructure, utilities?

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

That’s everything except the land.


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[californiagrown]

we now have the projections for the much-debated 277 unit, 467 bedroom Lumberyard affordable housing project penciling out to $350M minimum or up to $750M if built in phases over 26 years. $1.6M per bedroom build cost against roughly $1000/mo per bedroom income - solid math. https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/...7f5ece6c9.html

That is impressive. The total cost (land+design+permits+construction) for a similarly sized affordable project (acreage and unit count) here in the Seattle metro area im working on is less than a third of that.

[fastfred]

It's affordable here and works properly if the planning and funding is lined up with pacing that works for construction+funding timelines. But it's become way way harder and more expensive than it was a decade or two ago. But that's not really that different from free market construction in any desirable county/region at a broad level. Shits expensive.

The point is it's not affordable

A 500k deed restricted home is not affordable housing

The amount of give aways and freebies to devepers to build these and profit is stupid

It's socialism and redistribution of wealth and then someone randomly becomes a winner

I know construction costs and they are stupid. They are what is pushing home values way way up

Don't get me wrong I'm playing devils advocate and I'm all for it

But those that choose affordable housing are getting a major subsidy in life