Real Estate Crash thread

[Core Shot]

Sally is losing her face
She lives on St. Marks Place
In a rent-controlled apartment, eighty dollars a month
She has lots of fun, she has lots of fun

But, Sally can't dance no more
Oh Sally she can't dance no more
She went and carried on and can't get off of the floor
Now Sally, oh she can't dance no more

[schuss]

failure to build adequate housing stock picks winners and losers. Foggy likes to bitch about how Aspen picks the winners because he likes to play redneck culture warrior (see also casual misogyny).

It's true, but in a resort town that needs a certain population of lower incomes, preferably from younger people on their way up, periodically releasing stock to a random selection is not a solution that preserves workforce composition or options. If you're going to subsidize, it's *gasp* housing that are rentals and dense.

[neckdeep]

Is it really "failure to build adequate housing stock" when a thousand wealthy people stampede in, scoop up everything under 500k, drive the $275K condos up to $525K IN ONLY 18 MONTHS and then put them on the str market anticipating $6000 a month cash flow.

Was that a housing shortage or did we all just get played by the dirt pimps?

[mcski]

Just saying, there's a reason these three words almost never appear together in a sentence.

They do in SF and NYC

[goldenboy]

If, in your mind:

Rental apartment = "forever home"

Then,

You = moron

That's silly. Not everyone wants to own a home, or be in a home vs an apartment. Some people might call my condo an apartment, but even though I could likely make a single family home work, I'm not interested. I have no interest in my free time being taken over by mowing a lawn, staining a deck, or shoveling snow. All things you don't have to deal with in an apartment (or condo).

[neckdeep]

That's silly. Not everyone wants to own a home, or be in a home vs an apartment. Some people might call my condo an apartment, but even though I could likely make a single family home work, I'm not interested. I have no interest in my free time being taken over by mowing a lawn, staining a deck, or shoveling snow. All things you don't have to deal with in an apartment (or condo).

All fair points.

My point is that things that are out of your control rarely last forever. If you don't hold title, then your "forever" is subject to someone else's whims. Owners change. Rents go up, building maintenance gets neglected, neighbors from hell move in upstairs,etc.

[AdironRider]

That's silly. Not everyone wants to own a home, or be in a home vs an apartment. Some people might call my condo an apartment, but even though I could likely make a single family home work, I'm not interested. I have no interest in my free time being taken over by mowing a lawn, staining a deck, or shoveling snow. All things you don't have to deal with in an apartment (or condo).

I think the value of either situation being discussed (house vs condo) is you own the unit, not subservient to a landlord that can fuck you over in your "forever home".

[XXX-er]

but anyone who can't afford to buy a house is still a moran ?

and actualy its not really your house until you have paid off the mortgage ?

but the bank will still let you live there ?

but not if you quit giving them the money ?

so whom amongst us is still a moran ?

if I am free title but don't pay my taxes and the town sells it " for taxes " am I a moran again ?

[neckdeep]

but anyone who can't afford to buy a house is still a moran ?

Nobody said that.

I said a leasehold is no guarantee of "forever" housing and anyone who thinks a contract with a clearly defined end date means "forever* is a moron.

[XXX-er]

If, in your mind:

Rental apartment = "forever home"

Then,

You = moron

hmmmmm ?

[dunfree]

I think the value of either situation being discussed (house vs condo) is you own the unit, not subservient to a landlord that can fuck you over in your "forever home".

Youve never owned a condo have you? Definitely subservient to the condo association and their good or bad choices, which can totally fuck people with assessments

and last I checked unless you live in some place like commiefornua real estate taxes can totally fuck you

[XXX-er]

i've only owned houses but just the thot of dealing with a condo association gives me a sweaty crotch

[BCMtnHound]

Careful xxx-er. The crown might hear you and decide to take back your ‘tenancy title’ of that house you think you ‘own’. We’re under a state of provincial emergency atm, so all it takes is a couple signatures.

Hard to compare land title or deed between the US and Canada. We don’t have property rights in our charter like many other 1st world countries.

[XXX-er]

No way i'm a moran, besides I've always worshiped the queen, opps I mean the king

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

That's silly. Not everyone wants to own a home, or be in a home vs an apartment. Some people might call my condo an apartment, but even though I could likely make a single family home work, I'm not interested. I have no interest in my free time being taken over by mowing a lawn, staining a deck, or shoveling snow. All things you don't have to deal with in an apartment (or condo).

The GF and I own a townhome by the golf course. Best thing we ever did. 4-unit HOA. Huge yard with a creek and the dues are $1200 per YEAR for the lawncare, etc. All the neighbors are chill. HOA is super lax. Reasonable restrictions. All told about 10 realtors live in the subdivision. Dude with $25M listings lives a few doors down. He figured it out way before we did. Mowing a bunch of grass and maintaining a bunch of land is kind of overrated. I've done it in the past and this is such a nice alternative. Not saying I will never own a house on land again, but for now being able to work and play and not have to do a ton of yard work all the time is sweet.

[goldenboy]

All fair points.

My point is that things that are out of your control rarely last forever. If you don't hold title, then your "forever" is subject to someone else's whims. Owners change. Rents go up, building maintenance gets neglected, neighbors from hell move in upstairs,etc.

I'm with you on the rental aspect, and having little control over your future. I feel really bad for the people who buy mobile homes but don't own the land and are subject to lot rent- or getting kicked off entirely, with no way to move their home that isn't that mobile.

As others posted, I'm definitely subject to the whims of my HOA board, or new neighbors. Most people are to some extent. Even governments can change the rules on single family homes...

[alpinevibes]

Oh man, that blew up. I read her piece on Monday morning and started laughing. Chatted with my coworker (whose husband writes for the ADN) and we just thought it was so sad, but now I'm seeing both the TGR ire and I read through the [mostly terrible, pointless and inaccurate] FB comments. Anyways, she's a classic entitled newcomer who doesn't know how the [complex APCHA] system works and got dealt a bad hand.

APCHA has both APCHA-managed rentals (which would filter this situation out) and private-managed rentals that fall under their rules. The problem here is that private rentals don't have much oversite, beyond the renter qualifying. The fault here is on the idiot property manager for letting her in and not knowing the steps. I know a few other people here who have walked up to the PM office at one of these privately-managed complexes and ended up getting a rental, that day/week, solely because they were there at the right time, or they were nice, or pretty, or whatever. There's poor management and no effective waitlist/process for some of them - which allows the ignorants/newcomers to end up in a lucky or unfortunate situation, both at the detriment of someone whose arguably in greater need. That said, I don't have much sympathy for her - especially with the letter she wrote, her social media presence, the GoFundMe, "forever home" etc etc .

That was my first thought too. Does Aspen has so much affordable housing available they’re allowing single occupancy in a 2 bed unit?

Not at all but when some of the privately-managed rental units turn over, the management seems to do a poor job lining up a tenant that actually has time/commitment here and likely understands the process better than someone like this girl. She was in the lowest category of rental units, based on her $54k combined income cap for two people - she should never have been allowed into that without a roomate already ready, nor without APCHA approval. There aren't a ton of these Cat 1 rentals out there, but there are plenty of people in the service industry who could qualify into them.

To Foggys point many pages ago, the Aspen model picks winners rather than have a sustainable model with regular availability for working folks.
Periodic winning lottery ticket distribution is not how you solve this.

In a vacuum, yes, but the original design of the program (40+ years ago) was to provide affordable housing for both rentals and ownership units - that would allow people to stairstep into other ownership/living situation. Obviously the housing market here has skyrocketed well past that being a possibility in most cases, but the momentum and framework continues. FWIW, APCHA has ~1100 long-term rentals, 275 seasonal rentals and 1700 ownership units, so it's not solely lucky winners (like me) that make up the model.

I like how the pile on in the comments is all about her an none about the Housing Authority. As much as I don't like her whole vibe, I'm not sure she is so much wrong.

I mean, aren't there people living in those units that are retired with second homes in MX and all that.

She is easy to dislike apparently but she did qualify right? If she just moved into a 1 bed would we even be talking about it?

It sounds like she didn't qualify, initially, but the dumb dumb PM allowed her to move in and sign the lease, solely by checking off that her income was low enough. Once APCHA got involved, they likely said no to her having the 2bd as a solo person. If she was in a Cat 1 1bd, i think she would qualify to be in there. Either way, the PM should have pointed her to APCHA first, to qualify and get blessed to be able to apply for a unit.

While entitled and cringey about her reaction to her situation, she's not entirely at fault. But the fact that other people cheat the system or own other properties (fully allowed outside the Aspen region), or whatever doesn't really change her situation. I think most of the people living in APCHA housing are more-or-less legit, with some number fudging, etc. And I think the system will continue to improve and get cleaned up as they implement a lot of new initiatives and audits that were totally absent for decades prior. APCHA needs new employees and new energy, but it's not as corrupt as outsiders and butthurt non-winners like to project.

[schuss]

That's good to know. All the APCHA discussion here has been on the ownership units. Good to hear they have at least some stock of rentals.

As far as not building enough - The giant fucking hole post 2006 was absolutely within control and a lot of municipalities could have retained skilled construction effectively at cost and set themselves up. As far as the mountain areas - they've been growing for years along with WFH trends. The writing was on the wall 10 years ago.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

But no, no one thought more than like 3 months ahead.

[XXX-er]

The GF and I own a townhome by the golf course. Best thing we ever did. 4-unit HOA. Huge yard with a creek and the dues are $1200 per YEAR for the lawncare, etc. All the neighbors are chill. HOA is super lax. Reasonable restrictions. All told about 10 realtors live in the subdivision. Dude with $25M listings lives a few doors down. He figured it out way before we did. Mowing a bunch of grass and maintaining a bunch of land is kind of overrated. I've done it in the past and this is such a nice alternative. Not saying I will never own a house on land again, but for now being able to work and play and not have to do a ton of yard work all the time is sweet.

so you own half a town house which seems to be what you want and like

but we were discussing that one does not need to own 1/2 a town home/ appartment or even a whole town home/ apartment to not be a moran

[fastfred]

i've only owned houses but just the thot of dealing with a condo association gives me a sweaty crotch

dude as a president of an large hoa thats cool if thats what you think
currently I'm pushing for a 20 - 40 dollar a month dues increase I done the math most homeowners haven't I study our budget and expenses its a fucking riot at least I know how to read numbers when most people can't
I've gotten called all kinds of names gotten undermined and all that good shit I smile and I laugh and pat them on the head the poor poor puppy dogs

but guess what I show up 24/7 to help manage a 150 home hoa it fucking sucks I have walked out of meetings and told people to figure it out themselves
do you think anyone else steps up to fill the void for deal with the bullshit?
but hey almost 20 years in no one else steps up except for maybe three of us I think we are down to two core members now me being one

if I tell you to do something do it
if you don't like it step up
I spend every day telling people what to do it gets really old quick
but people are fucking stupid

[dunfree]

That's good to know. All the APCHA discussion here has been on the ownership units. Good to hear they have at least some stock of rentals.

As far as not building enough - The giant fucking hole post 2006 was absolutely within control and a lot of municipalities could have retained skilled construction effectively at cost and set themselves up. As far as the mountain areas - they've been growing for years along with WFH trends. The writing was on the wall 10 years ago.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

But no, no one thought more than like 3 months ahead.

40+ years of APCHA tells you the timeframe, fuck it’s back when foggycocknuckle was looking down on hammer swingers in cunticutt before he couldn’t make it and moved west

[XXX-er]

dude as a president of an large hoa thats cool if thats what you think
currently I'm pushing for a 20 - 40 dollar a month dues increase I done the math most homeowners haven't I study our budget and expenses its a fucking riot at least I know how to read numbers when most people can't
I've gotten called all kinds of names gotten undermined and all that good shit I smile and I laugh and pat them on the head the poor poor puppy dogs

but guess what I show up 24/7 to help manage a 150 home hoa it fucking sucks I have walked out of meetings and told people to figure it out themselves
do you think anyone else steps up to fill the void for deal with the bullshit?
but hey almost 20 years in no one else steps up except for maybe three of us I think we are down to two core members now me being one

if I tell you to do something do it
if you don't like it step up
I spend every day telling people what to do it gets really old quick
but people are fucking stupid

im trying to comprehend if this ^^ is good or bad ?

I recently had to put up with my tennant's request to turn down the heat ( menopause ? ) which of course I should have done in the spring,

of course I did it cuz she is promising more smoked salmon eh

[Skistack]

Oh man, that blew up. I read her piece on Monday morning and started laughing. Chatted with my coworker (whose husband writes for the ADN) and we just thought it was so sad, but now I'm seeing both the TGR ire and I read through the [mostly terrible, pointless and inaccurate] FB comments. Anyways, she's a classic entitled newcomer who doesn't know how the [complex APCHA] system works and got dealt a bad hand.

APCHA has both APCHA-managed rentals (which would filter this situation out) and private-managed rentals that fall under their rules. The problem here is that private rentals don't have much oversite, beyond the renter qualifying. The fault here is on the idiot property manager for letting her in and not knowing the steps. I know a few other people here who have walked up to the PM office at one of these privately-managed complexes and ended up getting a rental, that day/week, solely because they were there at the right time, or they were nice, or pretty, or whatever. There's poor management and no effective waitlist/process for some of them - which allows the ignorants/newcomers to end up in a lucky or unfortunate situation, both at the detriment of someone whose arguably in greater need. That said, I don't have much sympathy for her - especially with the letter she wrote, her social media presence, the GoFundMe, "forever home" etc etc .



Not at all but when some of the privately-managed rental units turn over, the management seems to do a poor job lining up a tenant that actually has time/commitment here and likely understands the process better than someone like this girl. She was in the lowest category of rental units, based on her $54k combined income cap for two people - she should never have been allowed into that without a roomate already ready, nor without APCHA approval. There aren't a ton of these Cat 1 rentals out there, but there are plenty of people in the service industry who could qualify into them.



In a vacuum, yes, but the original design of the program (40+ years ago) was to provide affordable housing for both rentals and ownership units - that would allow people to stairstep into other ownership/living situation. Obviously the housing market here has skyrocketed well past that being a possibility in most cases, but the momentum and framework continues. FWIW, APCHA has ~1100 long-term rentals, 275 seasonal rentals and 1700 ownership units, so it's not solely lucky winners (like me) that make up the model.




It sounds like she didn't qualify, initially, but the dumb dumb PM allowed her to move in and sign the lease, solely by checking off that her income was low enough. Once APCHA got involved, they likely said no to her having the 2bd as a solo person. If she was in a Cat 1 1bd, i think she would qualify to be in there. Either way, the PM should have pointed her to APCHA first, to qualify and get blessed to be able to apply for a unit.

While entitled and cringey about her reaction to her situation, she's not entirely at fault. But the fact that other people cheat the system or own other properties (fully allowed outside the Aspen region), or whatever doesn't really change her situation. I think most of the people living in APCHA housing are more-or-less legit, with some number fudging, etc. And I think the system will continue to improve and get cleaned up as they implement a lot of new initiatives and audits that were totally absent for decades prior. APCHA needs new employees and new energy, but it's not as corrupt as outsiders and butthurt non-winners like to project.

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Really surprised APCHA does not maintain a master waitlist of prequalified applicants for all their subsidized units.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Core Shot]

No way i'm a moran, besides I've always worshiped the queen, opps I mean the king

God save the king. And his fascist regime.
He made you a moran

[XXX-er]

since 52 it was ""god save the queen" you dumb fuck, only had a king since 2022

but you are fortunate to have the Don trump