Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[LongShortLong]

Good point. During our “lockdown”, I wondered about whether a real Spain or Italian lockdown would have been more impactful in the long run. Would the economy be any worse off if we had done that then?

A full travel ban would accomplish keeping it out but that’s unrealistic.

Your first question applies today, going forward. Will the economy be better off if we do a real Spain or Italian lockdown?

What's unrealistic about a travel ban? Many countries have them at the moment. At least one state (Hawaii) does too.

[LongShortLong]

It's a very real possibility that of all major metro areas on earth, NYC has the highest percentage of immune in their population. And the rate of new infection/death in NYC has been super low for the last several weeks.

It's also a very real possibility that of all major metro areas on earth, Wuhan has the among the lowest percentage of immune in their population. And the rate of new infection/death in Wuhan has been super low for the last several months.

Same for any number of metro areas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Vietnam, ... probably a few more. Several (all?) of these countries would be happy to advise on corona response, or point toward their public government documents or media, since we seem to dumb to find it on our own.

To your point, having an infection rate like NYC's means a region that is otherwise barely losing the battle would be barely winning, since the virus would have a few less susceptible victims. Look at NYC's numbers, they aren't barely winning, they are crushing it. So maybe those brash New Yorkers could tell us a thing or two about winning corona response. Or we can choose the school of hard knocks and learn it ourselves .

[LongShortLong]

Wear your damn masks. Stay away from people. Tell your public health officials to contact trace. Let's seriously try to beat this without a lockdown.

[MontuckyFried]

Does that 10X higher unreported infection rate mean the fatality rate is actually 1/10 what they thought it was?

Would surely appear that way!

I always did wonder what the reality of the situation REALLY is since we've typically only been running tests on sick peeps. I bet if we got 100% active COVID and antibody testing, the results would shock us. Such a strange bug. So many it doesn't do squat to and to the minority of others it totally wrecks.

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[neufox47]

Does that 10X higher unreported infection rate mean the fatality rate is actually 1/10 what they thought it was?

No. They’ve know IFR is not = to cfr for a long time.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

[pureantigravity]

Wear your damn masks. Stay away from people. Tell your public health officials to contact trace. Let's seriously try to beat this without a lockdown.

This x 10.

The only way we are all going to get through the next few seasons is if everyone takes mask wearing seriously, people keep social distancing, and borders (nation/state/province) stay closed. That is the only way that contact tracing is possible and the only effective way to prevent spread. Anything less and the world is headed for even more severe lock downs.

[jgb@etree]

From the "this is nuts!" department:

The Lewis county sheriff (EWA) in response to the governor's mask mandate grabbed a bullhorn and told people not to be sheep by wearing masks.

I'm at a loss. Truly.

The amazing part is that you continue to be shocked, surprised & outraged every single day when you see that there are a LOT of people out there who just don't agree with you.

[huckbucket]

The amazing part is that you continue to be shocked, surprised & outraged every single day when you see that there are a LOT of people out there who just don't agree with you.

I'm very confident that the problem isn't a difference of opinion.

[jgb@etree]

I'm very confident that the problem isn't a difference of opinion.

Can you link any scientific studies that show cloth masks are actually effective? Here are 2 that say they are not...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

This study is the first RCT of cloth masks, and the results caution against the use of cloth masks. This is an important finding to inform occupational health and safety. Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs, particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sed-sound-data

Sweeping mask recommendations—as many have proposed—will not reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, as evidenced by the widespread practice of wearing such masks in Hubei province, China, before and during its mass COVID-19 transmission experience earlier this year. Our review of relevant studies indicates that cloth masks will be ineffective at preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, whether worn as source control or as PPE.

[jono]

Does that 10X higher unreported infection rate mean the fatality rate is actually 1/10 what they thought it was?

Unlikely, since the same people suppressing testing of the living are also not keeping good track of the dead--and you don't have to miss as many deaths to have an equivalent impact in the opposite direction. I'm sure you can do that math.

Unfortunately, this is also not news: the most common estimates have put actual infections around 10x the confirmed number for at least 3 months now. So they're saying we're making no progress on that front, which bodes very badly for tracing going forward. Hopefully it's running through a less vulnerable part of the population now and we'll only be seeing 1000 deaths per day next month. Hopefully.

[jono]

Can you link any scientific studies that show cloth masks are actually effective?

Can you read the thread? It kind of looks like you can't. Maybe it's too much for you? Just take it easy and keep at it.

It's kind of long because it's repetitive, being full of things like this: you quoted a study that's already been addressed ad nauseam and which says right in your quote that it's pointed at HCW rather then the general public, and the other is specially titled "commentary" from April 1, when the strategy was to lie to us so we wouldn't buy up all the masks. Which they did because it was already known that masks were very important.

[Vt-Freeheel]

This will help

[rod9301]

I'm in a big mail in Toulouse for my kids birthday (Lego store) and about 80 percent wear masks

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[huckbucket]

Can you link any scientific studies that show cloth masks are actually effective? Here are 2 that say they are not...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/



https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sed-sound-data

I don't have the energy for your ignorance. Thanks for pointing out the first study in which there was no control (maskless) group. Also appreciate the second study which views the world as binary. Masks are efficient along a continuum where reduction in transmission is commensurate. Are N95 better than cloth? Duh. Do you really think you're so well informed on this subject as to have a qualified opinion? Stick with shit you know .... which is?

[ötzi]

He knows he likes the guns. All else is secondary. Making people wear masks is somewhere along a continuum of government control that ends up with them taking his guns away, so they're bad.

[Bunion 2020]

Hours after Gov. Jay Inslee (D) ordered Washington state residents to cover their faces in public, a Republican sheriff in a rural southwestern swath of the state suggested they should be doing no such thing.

“Here’s what I say,” Lewis County Sheriff Robert Snaza told the crowd outside a church Tuesday, carrying a megaphone and sporting his green and beige uniform but no face mask. “Don’t be a sheep.”

Few of the people cheering on Snaza covered their faces either, according to video of the scene taken by the Daily Chronicle of Centralia, Wash. Indeed, the words on a billboard above the crowd seemed to capture their feeling about the pandemic: “Oh, no! A virus. Quick — burn the bill of rights.”

With coronavirus infections rapidly spreading across the American South and West and more states making masks a requirement, dozens of sheriffs like Snaza are staging a rebellion against state governments. An adherence to their interpretation of Constitution, they say, comes before any kind of public health advice.

Since April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said people should cover their faces in public to stop the spread of the coronavirus, which has killed more than 122,000 people in the United States to date. But Snaza said he did not believe masks were effective, arguing they should be optional instead.

“My frustration is we continue to listen to the governor’s requests without asking questions, without saying: ‘Well wait a minute, there’s the other side to this,' " Snaza told Oregon Public Broadcasting.

Sigh................

[jono]

I thought Brian Dennehy was the sheriff in Lewis County.

[ncskier]

It's also a very real possibility that of all major metro areas on earth, Wuhan has the among the lowest percentage of immune in their population. And the rate of new infection/death in Wuhan has been super low for the last several months.

Same for any number of metro areas in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Vietnam, ... probably a few more. Several (all?) of these countries would be happy to advise on corona response, or point toward their public government documents or media, since we seem to dumb to find it on our own.

To your point, having an infection rate like NYC's means a region that is otherwise barely losing the battle would be barely winning, since the virus would have a few less susceptible victims. Look at NYC's numbers, they aren't barely winning, they are crushing it. So maybe those brash New Yorkers could tell us a thing or two about winning corona response. Or we can choose the school of hard knocks and learn it ourselves .

NYC was really in retrospect the swedish model on steroids. In comparison to many other areas of the country, it closed schools later, it decreased the number of mass transit cars available, thus packing more people in, plus it even has mass transit, didn't close parks etc. International flights continued for a while, repatriating people back to the US and the overall density of citizen to livable sq. ft. By and large they kind of ripped off the bandaid faster. They also benefited from the overwhelming amount of national support with field hospitals, outside healthcare workers, corporate responses and that navy ship etc. I'm not sure America collectively could have withstood those loses at one time if say LA broke out the same way.

I am not blaming NY'ers either, but they obviously they had it in their midst longer as well. Many of the hot spots out west nearly coincided with Presidents week travel a distinctly NY thing of getting the week off and going to colorado, utah, jackson, Sun Valley etc.

I am resolved that this is going to be a series of flare up for months and years to come. Especially, if some of the recent reports are correct in that immunity may only last 2-3 months.

[funkendrenchman]

Can you link any scientific studies that show cloth masks are actually effective? Here are 2 that say they are not...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/



https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sed-sound-data

We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with extensive testing, quarantine, and contact tracking, poses the most probable fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic, prior to the development of a vaccine.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../10/2009637117

[jgb@etree]

I don't have the energy for your ignorance. Thanks for pointing out the first study in which there was no control (maskless) group. Also appreciate the second study which views the world as binary. Masks are efficient along a continuum where reduction in transmission is commensurate. Are N95 better than cloth? Duh. Do you really think you're so well informed on this subject as to have a qualified opinion? Stick with shit you know .... which is?

So, no studies to cite? Why would you keep that kind of information to yourself? And no, I don't think I am well informed enough to have a "qualified" opinion, and specifically asked for you to share scientific studies that support what you are saying. Some might say that your unwillingness to do so is telling.

[jgb@etree]

He knows he likes the guns. All else is secondary. Making people wear masks is somewhere along a continuum of government control that ends up with them taking his guns away, so they're bad.

And guns have exactly what to do with the situation at hand, or my remarks? It would be like me saying you refuse to oppose planned parenthood because you - like PP founder Margaret Sanger - are a racist eugenicist who wants to exterminate minorities. It would be irrelevant, and nonsensical given the current discussion. But I guess that is just how you roll. Wonder how long it will take you to have >20,000 idiotic posts under this account?

[jgb@etree]

We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with extensive testing, quarantine, and contact tracking, poses the most probable fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic, prior to the development of a vaccine.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../10/2009637117

Thanks for sharing that. Seems that there is some 'difference of opinion' between scientists and epidemiologists as well.

[jono]

Thanks for sharing that. Seems that there is some 'difference of opinion' between scientists and epidemiologists as well.

No, the goon you quoted is retired from something or other. No skin in the game/not afraid to lie to help push the narrative.

And it was posted on April Fool's day. Ok, well trolled.

[Super G]

With lots of talk about vaccines coming to the rescue, I wanted to learn more about what goes in them. Can one of the pharma bros or scientist maggots please tell me why we have been injecting our kids with abortion stew?

Here is a deposition with Stanley Plotkin "the Godfather of Vaccines" that says what type of unborn body parts are harvested to be injected into healthy babies and toddlers.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CB2AyVpneLw/

If you are interested in the whole 9 hours, here you go
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFTsd042M3o&t=36s

Will they be chopping up unborn babies to inject into us for a covid vaccine, or is that just for the kids? Seriously though, since I am not a scientist, can you tell me how abortion parts injected into the body are good for you?

[huckbucket]

JFC jgb. I bet if I shipped you a box of N95 that you'd still debate they aren't useful.