Real Estate Crash thread

[anotherVTskibum]

Apparently college football is also causing AirBNB angst:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/18/r...smid=url-share
(Share link, no paywall)

[phatty]

Good article on the various issues Calgary is facing as it converts 2.3M sq ft of office space into apartments.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/thousands-...120000852.html

[californiagrown]

Good article on the various issues Calgary is facing as it converts 2.3M sq ft of office space into apartments.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/thousands-...120000852.html

That is a good article. Briefly talks about how they are incentivizing developers to convert the office to residential, but then dives into the less talked about issues of actual liveability of a downtown/business district whose infrastructure and planning/layout was not designed for residential (e.g. grocery stores, drug stores, schools, parks, residential friendly restaurants, service and retail vs. office worker oriented restaurants, service and retail).

[Dromond]

Why do tech bros think they can solve everything?

https://gizmodo.com/michael-moritz-r...-bu-1850780238

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/b...smid=url-share

Because they build software and services, which can be replicated for free or nearly free, making it seem like they can build anything faster than anyone else regardless of the discipline.

[phatty]

That is a good article. Briefly talks about how they are incentivizing developers to convert the office to residential, but then dives into the less talked about issues of actual liveability of a downtown/business district whose infrastructure and planning/layout was not designed for residential (e.g. grocery stores, drug stores, schools, parks, residential friendly restaurants, service and retail vs. office worker oriented restaurants, service and retail).

There's some that's specific to Calgary (wide, one way streets), but most is applicable to any downtown area. Lots of great detail.

[Bunion 2020]

Build it and they will come, especially if IT is for more than just low income people.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Austin hit hardest in the USA this year. Meanwhile Madison WI saw the most price growth in the USA.

Austin saw an unbelievable amount of CA money move in. Many people saw it as the viable replacement for living in LA or SD and they moved and then realized it's literally 115 degrees all summer long and bounced and the over inflated prices they paid won't hold up in "post" covid resale.

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

[J. Barron DeJong]

Maybe they bounced, but Austin is still growing, so not sure how true that is:



But they increased construction the past few years:



My guess would be that it isn’t so much that the rich are leaving, but that there’s been increasing housing supply while population growth has slowed somewhat, creating a less tight market.

[XXX-er]

In my small town of 5000 they incentivized the down town housing by giving a 50% tax break for 5 years to the LL who develops housing so they get the taxbreak but also collect rent and in the end their property gained in value. Who ever built the new Home Hardware which is 5000sq' put a suite off the alley so the property tax which would have been 5000$ a year is cut in half + the rent

So there is a section where i walk down the back alley and I can see a block of upscale-ish large apartments, the entrances facing into the alley above stores you still have dumpsters but otherwise its all very neat and tidey there are hangign plants and xmas lights so I don't mind walking down that alley and i see other people walking there so it has repurposed an alley but Its got to make $$$$ sense so it doesnt always work like if the building is too old it might not be worth developing. The craft brew has apts above, one of the restaurants has apts above so there are always normal people out and about having a smoke or going for a beer making the DT a more livable place

they also allowed the back alley housing, I got 3 really close to me and its all been positive

[dan_pdx]

So...we're planning to list our house in Spokane in the spring. Having brilliantly bought at the peak, I'm expecting this will be an unpleasant experience, but things have changed and we need to get closer to family.

So, a couple of questions for folks. First, is it worthwhile to reach out to some local agents to let them know that we're going to list in the spring but if they're currently working with buyers who'd be interested in our property, we could bring that forward? Or is that just a waste of time?

Second, has anyone listed with Redfin? 1.5% to list via Redfin vs. 3% to list with a traditional agent makes Redfin look pretty good, but do the traditional agents do something that would earn back that difference? I think the question is going to be "how much reaming can we tolerate?", so that 1.5% difference is looming large.

[phatty]

So...we're planning to list our house in Spokane in the spring. Having brilliantly bought at the peak, I'm expecting this will be an unpleasant experience, but things have changed and we need to get closer to family.

So, a couple of questions for folks. First, is it worthwhile to reach out to some local agents to let them know that we're going to list in the spring but if they're currently working with buyers who'd be interested in our property, we could bring that forward? Or is that just a waste of time?

Second, has anyone listed with Redfin? 1.5% to list via Redfin vs. 3% to list with a traditional agent makes Redfin look pretty good, but do the traditional agents do something that would earn back that difference? I think the question is going to be "how much reaming can we tolerate?", so that 1.5% difference is looming large.

Can't speak for Redfin, but we had a local agent (Issaquah, WA) who did 1% for us and that was years ago. I'm sure you can find someone who will work in the 1-1.5% range. Bummer it didn't work out there for you. Hopefully you don't take too much of a beating.

[dan_pdx]

Can't speak for Redfin, but we had a local agent (Issaquah, WA) who did 1% for us and that was years ago. I'm sure you can find someone who will work in the 1-1.5% range. Bummer it didn't work out there for you. Hopefully you don't take too much of a beating.

Thanks, it's a pretty cool house here, I'm bummed things worked out this way. I'm really going to miss my workshop / bike trainer pain cave / snow sliding gear storage room.

[neckdeep]

Notorious jhole scammer back in the news for more scamming. Tramm ripped off landlords and tenants alike. Imho, getting over $4,000 a month for "managing" a property is quite a scam in itself but apparently she just keeps all the rent.

And, it gets better, she has a pr firm! Welcome to Jackson, where even a bottom of the food chain grifter has a pr firm for damage control.

[Mazderati]

Waiting on this STR-led correction, neckdeep. You still a believer?

[summit]

Notorious jhole scammer back in the news for more scamming. Tramm ripped off landlords and tenants alike. Imho, getting $4,000 a month for "managing" a property is quite a scam in itself but apparently she just keeps all the rent.

Link?

[SKIP IN7RO]

https://www.jhnewsandguide.com/news/...7e42b0182.html

[SKIP IN7RO]

How about this RE news from the mothership
vail-real-estate-giant-faces-felony-stalking-charge/

[neckdeep]

Waiting on this STR-led correction, neckdeep. You still a believer?

IDK. The condos where I live is over 30% STRs and it sure seems like the gold rush is over. Very low occupancy rates all fall and a one week bump xmas to new year. BUT, up til this week, its been the worst winter in 20 years so might not have been a normal ski season demand. The place was booked up according to normal seasonal demand though; 10 busy weeks during the high season, dead as a doornail sept-through xmas. So, it seems like some sort of normality is returning to the STR market on the demand side, at least. I expect that new owners who were unfamiliar with the area's traditional seasonal ebb and flow are getting a rude awakening.

One neighboring STR unit owner just sank another $15K in remodel to try to boost bookings; that owner is desperate but not ready to capitulate. My next door neighbor also owns a 2nd unit for STR and he wants out. Its been on the market for 4 or 5 months at 2022 prices.

[Foggy_Goggles]

But here is Grand County, USA it sure doesn't seem like things are falling off a cliff? Maybe things are moderating both on the new construction and resale side of things? I really think that ski area visits can be used as a proxy for demand.

The busiest day ever at Wanker is 18K during the holidays, there were a handful of days at 17k with no new snow and about 75% of the terrain open. We've gone so far down the STR path that is truly is our lodging base. I'd be suprised if there were even 1k hotel/motel beds in the Fraser River Valley. I was just looking for some friends and the run of the mill, High County Haus/Meadow Ridge/Beavers 2bd units are about $500/nt. with a 3 night minimum not a ton of weekend availability. I just think that this is what skiing has become for a lot of people. I70 is such dogshit that staying for the weekend a couple times a year is the way.

[neckdeep]

But here is Grand County, USA it sure doesn't seem like things are falling off a cliff? Maybe things are moderating both on the new construction and resale side of things? I really think that ski area visits can be used as a proxy for demand.

The busiest day ever at Wanker is 18K during the holidays, there were a handful of days at 17k with no new snow and about 75% of the terrain open. We've gone so far down the STR path that is truly is our lodging base. I'd be suprised if there were even 1k hotel/motel beds in the Fraser River Valley. I was just looking for some friends and the run of the mill, High County Haus/Meadow Ridge/Beavers 2bd units are about $500/nt. with a 3 night minimum not a ton of weekend availability. I just think that this is what skiing has become for a lot of people. I70 is such dogshit that staying for the weekend a couple times a year is the way.

Bad traffic aside, you live next door to nearly 5 million people.

By comparison, i could draw a circle 500 miles in diameter around targhee and not encompass 5 million people. Denver airport is one of the busiest in the world. Idaho Falls airport has 5 gates.

Our reasonable expectations aren't even in the same universe.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I agree with all of that. Its part of what make the TV scene and prices even more insane. I've told the story before. A couple of my best friends moved there for higher teacher wages (WY), lower real estate prices and quiet. I almost did the same but went a different route. Fast forward 15 years and only 1 of those 3 is still true.

[liv2ski]

Second, has anyone listed with Redfin? 1.5% to list via Redfin vs. 3% to list with a traditional agent makes Redfin look pretty good, but do the traditional agents do something that would earn back that difference? I think the question is going to be "how much reaming can we tolerate?", so that 1.5% difference is looming large.

Listed my deceased mom's home with Redfin. Goes live next week. I don't know why anyone would pay more than 1.5%. Also told the agent the title company they select must have an escrow division, as I am not paying another $500 in BS fees due to using an independent escrow company.

[byates1]

Claire Tramm hustling. White first world trap house. Hilarious.

She should do a rap vid like razzlekann.

I feel like Clairetramm is a word that could be used at a verb and or adjective.

Bro clairetramm that shit son!

[byates1]

[dan_pdx]

Listed my deceased mom's home with Redfin. Goes live next week. I don't know why anyone would pay more than 1.5%. Also told the agent the title company they select must have an escrow division, as I am not paying another $500 in BS fees due to using an independent escrow company.

A dirt pimp on the forum PMd me and let me know that on average an experienced agent (that gets their 2.5 or 3%) will sell your house faster for more - based on data he pulled for his local listings. Basically you'll get the hustle of an agent with a long career working their network. He made the point that if you were listing in 2021, you would have done great with Redfin, but in a market like the one we have now, an agent has more to offer.

Our mortgage payment is about 0.5% of the home price, so if an agent can sell our house a few months faster, the difference between them and Redfin becomes pretty small. It would be helpful to sell quickly, so we're leaning traditional agent now. If time wasn't a factor, we'd probably be more inclined to use Redfin.