Real Estate Crash thread

[Hopeless Sinner]

My daughter is closing on her first house tomorrow, let the crash begin!

[Core Shot]

I dunno, his photos are pretty good
https://instagram.com/veridical_vent...QwZjQ0NmI0OA==

He might shred.

That's pretty legit.

Photos are good. He’s a Yellowstone and African guide. And a good photog.
But not seeing any shred
https://m.youtube.com/@veridical_ventures

[mud]

My daughter is closing on her first house tomorrow, let the crash begin!

Nov, Dec, and Jan. are good time to buy. People do not want to sell over the holidays so buyer activity slows down and home prices are at their lowest. Hopefully they didn't lock when rates were a 1% higher 30 days ago.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Nov, Dec, and Jan. are good time to buy. People do not want to sell over the holidays so buyer activity slows down and home prices are at their lowest. Hopefully they didn't lock when rates were a 1% higher 30 days ago.

She's at 7%, it's a complicated, deed restricted deal so a float wasn't possible.

[mud]

Beats renting over time.

[Conundrum]

My daughter is closing on her first house tomorrow, let the crash begin!

Still in Boise? Cool to hear she found a place.

[skaredshtles]

Beats renting over time.

Does rent realistically increase at 6% per annum? Seems high... but it has been a long time since I've been in the rental market.

[mud]

Dallas Fed says 8.4% forecasted.
But it all depends to how close you are to the lifts, beach, hookers and blow, etc.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816

[Kevo]

The Fed just released notes forecasting 3 rate cuts for next year.

Mortgage rates are going to come down. Will it unlock more supply or will it just bolster demand?

I don't think that any administration is going to allow another crash in any market while the boomers are still alive. Their nest eggs will be protected at any cost. Their home equity will be preserved for the benefit of the long term care industry.

Gen Z and Gen A will own nothing.

[4matic]

REDFIN: “.. The median U.S. asking rent declined 2.1% year over year in November to $1,967—the biggest annual drop since February 2020 .. ‘landlords are doling out concessions and rents have started falling in a meaningful way.’”

[skaredshtles]

Dallas Fed says 8.4% forecasted.
But it all depends to how close you are to the lifts, beach, hookers and blow, etc.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816

I went to the source and did some maths, and it *does* appear that the average yearly increase from 1990-2023 is right around 6%. Kinda surprised me, but probably shouldn't have.

[liv2ski]

Gen Z and Gen A will own nothing.

What about Boomer parents like us that are going to leave everything to the kids because their tax basis will be readjusted to avoid paying freaking taxes that we would if we sold today?

[mud]

Boomers are going to pass on Trillions of wealth to their kids. We are one generation away from not replacing everybody so we'll see if the next 40 years of residential RE growth will be like the last 40. Also Greenland may melt so that may change where people want to live.

https://energyeducation.ca/encyclope...placement_rate

[SKIP IN7RO]

What about Boomer parents like us that are going to leave everything to the kids because their tax basis will be readjusted to avoid paying freaking taxes that we would if we sold today?

You boomers are gonna get sucked dry trying to live forever.

[Name Redacted]

My parents are way to healthy to be passing me trillions. I think they will outlive me. Oh well.

[skaredshtles]

We really need to fix inheritance tax rules before the Boomers *really* start kicking off in huge numbers...

[Kevo]

What about Boomer parents like us that are going to leave everything to the kids because their tax basis will be readjusted to avoid paying freaking taxes that we would if we sold today?

Hopefully you guys are in a position to cover your medical and long term care needs without needing to sell your house. Your kids are also lucky that you own a house in a very desirable location where new development is all but impossible.

Most people aren't in that situation. I hypothesize that many boomer parents will be forced to sell to large corporate investors who will be flush with cash from artificially low interest rates. Their kids will get nothing.

[singlesline]

Does rent realistically increase at 6% per annum? Seems high... but it has been a long time since I've been in the rental market.

Highly dependent on where you are and who your landlord is. That's one area where I assume hedge funds owning rental property will be ruthless--they will likely push through market rent increases no matter what. Or just far enough below market that it isn't worth it for their good tenants to move out.

My old landlord (condo owner, renting it out because she moved away for work and then had a kid) literally asked me how much she should raise it. At the time inflation was basically zero, but I offered her some token increase because I really liked the place and didn't want to encourage her to stop being a landlord and just sell it. She just continued with that token increase every year.
In the 7 years I lived there, the rent went up a total of 7.2%

Current landlord is a property management firm representing various local owners. They haven't changed my rent once since I moved in in July 2021. I generally think I am a pretty solid tenant, which may have something to do with it, but I am honestly surprised because it seems like bad business to not at least raise it some every year.

[Toadman]

Hopefully you guys are in a position to cover your medical and long term care needs without needing to sell your house. Your kids are also lucky that you own a house in a very desirable location where new development is all but impossible.

Most people aren't in that situation. I hypothesize that many boomer parents will be forced to sell to large corporate investors who will be flush with cash from artificially low interest rates. Their kids will get nothing.

That's a big nugget for the PE and Hedge funds to eat. But just like eating an elephant, one bite at a time, maybe a 3rd of that $18 trillion in RE equity gets digested by the big money. But I would think if it got to that point, the Millennials and younger generations would revolt with rented pitch forks and Molotov cocktails.

https://fortune.com/2023/08/15/baby-...s-millennials/

[Mani_UT]

Dallas Fed says 8.4% forecasted.
But it all depends to how close you are to the lifts, beach, hookers and blow, etc.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816

Depends on your landlord. I’m raising my tenants rate about 2% a year. They’re happy, I’m happy.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Still in Boise? Cool to hear she found a place.

sending a pm

[goldenboy]

The Fed just released notes forecasting 3 rate cuts for next year.

Mortgage rates are going to come down. Will it unlock more supply or will it just bolster demand?

Both. There are plenty of sellers on the sideline that just can't stomach the thought of going from 3 to 7+%. If it's at 6% or under by the second half of the year, they'll sell. Same with buyers that are currently waiting things out. I think 6% is the number where it really changes. I know there is a lot of doom and gloom on this thread, but I actually think the 2nd half of '24 and 2025 will be pretty busy. There is a lot of pent up demand on both sides right now.

[4matic]

Original thought:

Merideth Whitney take on real estate. Household formation is at all time low. 66% of young men are single with most not interested in dating. Women chasing Instagram moments and boomers fading away and downsizing.

https://cnb.cx/4700JHb

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mered...100042234.html

[liv2ski]

You boomers are gonna get sucked dry trying to live forever.

Uuuh, who wants to live forever? If I make it another 20 years I will be stoked.

[Art Shirk]

Depends on your landlord. I’m raising my tenants rate about 2% a year. They’re happy, I’m happy.

The house I rent out in Seattle could easily fetch an extra $600/month but I can’t bring myself to increase the rent. Maybe I’m just a pussy but these folks have been amazing tenants and I cover my nut.


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