Real Estate Crash thread

[panchosdad]

See Jackson, where 70% of homes are bought for cash as investments.

Just a soulless pile of portfolios where a ski town used to be.

And yet there's a fuckton of people there all the time. So confusing.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Not sure why but inventory for sale in our local market (Helena) has seemingly doubled in the past couple weeks. Only reason I'm paying much attention is because a friend just listed a home for sale that his recently deceased parents lived in, and he was lamenting about the uptick.

Inventory has been ridiculously low so any increase would be a return towards normalcy.

Nice profile pic.

[neckdeep]

And yet there's a fuckton of people there all the time. So confusing.

Yes, 10,000 people a day, driving in to do all the work. Town population practically doubles every morning and the roads are choked.

The actual full time resident population of Jackson is declining. Down 1.6% last year in a town that builds hundreds of new houses every year. In a normal place, adding houses equals adding people but not Jackson. It's a town run for the benefit of houses, not people. If the population kept pace with the build out over the past 25 years, it would be triple what it is.

[zion zig zag]

We always called this the Miami Vice house, it listed for less than 800k 5 years ago:

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...2&from=map-pin

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

That's legit cocaine décor.

[liv2ski]

I was thinking wife swapping central.

[phatty]

Remote Workers fighting to stay in Zoom towns

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/27/...-stay-wfh.html

[Toadman]

Remote Workers fighting to stay in Zoom towns

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/27/...-stay-wfh.html

Of course my home town is the hot spot for remote work.

On the flip side, our companies have the reverse happening. We have had several hires this year that are remote in other parts of the country. Mid-west, SW, and even one in Seattle. Getting too expensive for some folks to move here. Not the only reason of course. Some of kids in school, and they don't want to pull up stakes. And then there's the disparity in price per sq ft for RE in Bend as opposed to someone living in Akron, OH.

[byates1]

https://bozeman.craigslist.org/reo/d...637541587.html

Sort of stoked on this place. Talked w dude today.

Sounds like someone nis swooping in w cash,

This would be a great spot to mumble to myself in the middle of nowhere

[skaredshtles]

https://bozeman.craigslist.org/reo/d...637541587.html

Sort of stoked on this place. Talked w dude today.

Sounds like someone nis swooping in w cash,

This would be a great spot to mumble to myself in the middle of nowhere

Jeezus. You *really* would need to enjoy being around NOBODY but yourself...

[byates1]

I'm a grand master at it already.

There is the "miracle mile"close by, some epic fishing destination. I'd aribnb it long weekends while working in Jackson. Rinse and repeat most every week.

Have aribnb pay off a small loan. Then in my 60s start mumbling to myself

[CarlMega]

^just a hunch, but I'd wager those pictures are as green as it ever gets and lasts about 2 weeks before scorched earth and windy dust.

[byates1]

oh yeah for sure. it's def real af wyoming.

[rideit]

Seriously. There are probably 20-30MPH winds most days after about 11:00 AM.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

I drove by that place last month on my way to Laramie. My biggest issue is its right on the highway. You're still quite a from the miracle mile.

[Harry]

https://bozeman.craigslist.org/reo/d...637541587.html

Sort of stoked on this place. Talked w dude today.

Sounds like someone nis swooping in w cash,

This would be a great spot to mumble to myself in the middle of nowhere

Dude, you should totally buy that place. I’ve met you and that place fits your personality to a T.

[byates1]

Ha! Yeah will see. Prob pass. 125 I'd be more apt.

Going to build something 16x20 w open beam, better build less wind

I may look at it on the 14th, dude is a straight shooter.

Still, an acre, a well, power and septic is probably over a 100 alone.

[Toadman]

Latest RE data through June. All things considered, things aren't all doom and gloom except in some of the bigger metro areas. All I know is that in my little town of Bend, construction on SFH's and apartment buildings goes on as normal.

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:
The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.91% on June 28, down from a half-year high of 7.14% a month earlier. For the week ending June 22, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.67%, down slightly from the eight-month high of 6.79% hit at the beginning of the month.
Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending June 23 rose 3% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted. Purchase applications were down 21% from a year earlier.
The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for home tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents–hit its second-highest level since May 2022 during the week ending June 25. It was up 10% from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive annual increase. Demand was dropping at this time in 2022 as mortgage rates rose.
Google searches for “homes for sale” were up 5% from a month earlier during the week ending June 24, and down about 9% from a year earlier.
Touring activity as of June 21 was up 9% from the start of the year, compared with a 6% decrease at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime. Tours increased slowly during this time last year as mortgage rates shot up.

The median home sale price was $382,628, down 0.9% from a year earlier, the smallest decline in nearly four months. Price declines have been shrinking for the last two months.
Home-sale prices declined in 25 metros, with the biggest drops in Austin, TX (-11% YoY), Las Vegas (-8.7%), Detroit (-8.4%), Oakland, CA (-7.5%) and Phoenix (-6.9%).
Sale prices increased most in Providence, RI (8.8%), Milwaukee (8.1%), Miami (7.3%), Fort Lauderdale, FL (6%) and Cincinnati (5.1%).
The median asking price of newly listed homes was $398,225, up 0.3% from a year earlier.
The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,630 at a 6.67% mortgage rate, the average for the week ending June 22. That’s down slightly from the record high hit a month earlier, but up 9% ($206) from a year earlier.
Pending home sales were down 14.5% year over year, continuing a 13-month streak of double-digit declines.
Pending home sales fell in all but one of the metros Redfin analyzed. They declined most in Cleveland (-24.8% YoY), New York, NY (-24.8%), Milwaukee (-24.3%), Providence (-22.2%) and Cincinnati (-20.4%). They were up slightly (+0.5%) in Austin.
New listings of homes for sale fell 26.5% year over year, the biggest decline since May 2020.
New listings declined in all metros Redfin analyzed. They fell most in Las Vegas (-45.3% YoY), Phoenix (-43.3%), Oakland, CA (-38.8%), Seattle (-38%) and Riverside, CA (-37.1%).

[Danno]

Curious, has anyone got data on cash sales, what percentage they are of total sales, and how that has changed over time?

[Mazderati]

1 in 3 sales were cash in April 2023.

https://investors.redfin.com/news-ev...ng-in-cash-the

[summit]

Assessors appeal determinations should be in mailboxes today. I hope you all had better luck than I.

[joeshek]

Assessors appeal determinations should be in mailboxes today. I hope you all had better luck than I.

Denied. Grand county was ridiculous. New construction sales seemed to skew valuations.

Unit in our condo complex closed at the end of the assessment period for 150k less than our assessed value - was actually nicer than ours. Thought our appeal was a slam dunk…

Denied lol.

[Danno]

There is a further appeal process that is not handled by the assessor.

[lowsparkco]

Curious, has anyone got data on cash sales, what percentage they are of total sales, and how that has changed over time?

That’s kind of tough to gather accurate numbers.

With inventory low, a lot of buyers who have the availability to present an offer in cash will do so and then take out financing after the purchase. Often it’s just borrowed from a margin account until the closing.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Denied. Grand county was ridiculous. New construction sales seemed to skew valuations.

Unit in our condo complex closed at the end of the assessment period for 150k less than our assessed value - was actually nicer than ours. Thought our appeal was a slam dunk…

Denied lol.

What complex? Seems to me that the AVs went up about 30% across the board. I'd say mine is right inline with what I could sell my house for. Again, changes in AV do not equal increase in taxes. Taxing entities are required to have full disclosure and public meeting regarding both their budget (expenses) and mill rate (revenue).

Be engaged and vigilant in this process. If your property is within the Town of WP or the Town of Fraser, yell and scream. The school district, county, water and sand districts, fire departments etc. seem like they are pretty budget conscious (Sherriff being an exception) . The towns, not so much.

For better or worse, needed infrastructure seems to lag development so I think some level of tax increase is appropriate and expected.

On the real estate side, it seem like a lot of second homeowner are listing their homes. No idea what their play is but anecdotally, the juice ain't worth the squeeze for the weekend warriors. Between the traffic and the business at the ski area on the weekends, people are saying that it just ain't worth it. With prices seeming to plateau, STR demand softening and facing increasing regulation and challenges, I'm seeing people going Steve Miller and take the money and run. A couple hundred large in capital appreciation buys a lot of vacations.