Real Estate Crash thread

[skiSilent_skiDeep]

For sale: Tetonia, ID. Tiny home. $500,000.

Attachment 466218

Land not included...

i see a new thread in this... Shitter with a view

[neckdeep]

I talked to a builder acquaintance recently- he's building 4-5 houses at the moment. He said not a single house is financed. Maybe things are a bit different this time?

Yeah, they sure are. Now prices are inflated beyond all reason because everyone thinks a house will pay for itself in 10 years. Price is no object when investors believe they are buying guaranteed rapid appreciation and fat passive income. It bears repeating: we have a housing crisis because there's literally 50 times as many STRs as LTRs. Approximately 25% of all the homes in Teton County, Idaho are STRs! In Jackson, 70% of sales are sold for cash to investors. This is what happens when the dirt pimps are in charge.

And you know who is going to get royally screwed in a down market? The desperate workers buying these small craptastic homes in shitty locations for twice what they are really worth.

[skaredshtles]

i see a new thread in this... Shitter with a view

This was the view from our shitter in Switzerland recently:

[east or bust]

Yeah, they sure are. Now prices are inflated beyond all reason because everyone thinks a house will pay for itself in 10 years. Price is no object when investors believe they are buying guaranteed rapid appreciation and fat passive income. It bears repeating: we have a housing crisis because there's literally 50 times as many STRs as LTRs. Approximately 25% of all the homes in Teton County, Idaho are STRs! In Jackson, 70% of sales are sold for cash to investors. This is what happens when the dirt pimps are in charge.

And you know who is going to get royally screwed in a down market? The desperate workers buying these small craptastic homes in shitty locations for twice what they are really worth.

I wonder what the percentage of STRs in TCW is?

We’re house sitting at a place midway up Snow King and decided to drive to the top for shits and gigs, probably half the houses up there had rental vehicles in the driveway.

We’ve house sat a number of times at this place over the last 2.5 years and I’ve never known, because the house is outfitted with all the typical Jackson toys (bike, skis, boats), that these people only live here for like 3-4 months a year. Rest of the time they live in their primary residence out of state, only difference is they don’t rent it out when they’re gone.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Honest question. Assuming no capital appreciation, how does an STR pencil for an investor?

Can you gross 50k? 100k? On a million dollar property? That's what a 4/4 is going for in my hood. There are 10+ people there from the Front Range before the paint dries.

At lower rates and lower valuations, every Larry and Linda Lakewood was doing it to pay for there #IgotaplaceinFraser. But now? I don't get it.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[neckdeep]

At lower rates and lower valuations, every Larry and Linda Lakewood was doing it to pay for there #IgotaplaceinFraser. But now? I don't get it.

Airbnb's dirty little secret is that less than 5% of the hosts control over a third of all listed properties. The top 1% control a staggering amount of homes. It's become a front for real estate investment/management companies.

If your community has a good track record of appreciating home prices and some tourists, these pros will swarm onto it like flies on shit.

[rideit]

At lower rates and lower valuations, every Larry and Linda Lakewood was doing it to pay for there #IgotaplaceinFraser. But now? I don't get it.

“Larry And Linda Lakewood”…fucking awesome. How about Harry and Heather Highlands?
TBF, if it weren’t for weekend Front Rangers, WP/Fraser (and the local economy) wouldn’t even exist.

[fastfred]

Wanna 'splain that? I'm familiar with cash offer financing. But cash is cash and leverage is leverage.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

it's easy

you take a loan out against your stocks buy a house it's cash
you take a heloc out against the skyrocketing value of your home go buy another house it's cash

I was advised in the past couple years to take out a heloc for 400k and go buy a house somewhere else cheaper and cooler
it sounded kinda stuipd to me so I didn't

[fastfred]

Airbnb's dirty little secret is that less than 5% of the hosts control over a third of all listed properties. The top 1% control a staggering amount of homes. It's become a front for real estate investment/management companies.

If your community has a good track record of appreciating home prices and some tourists, these pros will swarm onto it like flies on shit.

pretty much
a know someone in town who owns a few str houses and condos
they are bankrolling in it
got in ten plus years ago have a solid track record it's A plus rentals high standards
the main house goes for 6k a night over xmas holidays it's booked solid back to back rentals for 3 months in the summer and 5 months in the winter

[Foggy_Goggles]

Yeah, I get all of that but I'm talking about right now. I don't think the sharps are better on my capital appreciation anytime soon.

Um...our economy does not needs STRs. That's the biggest line of horse shit just about ever.

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[schuss]

I'm fine with STRs existing as it's the easiest logistically with kids+dogs in areas with shitty food options (read: mountain towns) so I can make my own.
That said, I think they should be regulated and additionally taxed like hotels to support more local housing stock and investment in the community.

[Mazderati]

An area predominated by hotels does nothing for local housing stock regardless of regulation and tax.

[North]

Think I read in paper that the neighborhood I'm in (in Mt. CB) is 40-45% STR. Bunch of dark units in the winter, pops off come summertime. Neighborhood was absolutely buzzing a few weeks ago. Somewhere in the middle now capacity-wise, but ~200% increase in homeowners complaining about people parking on the empty public streets in front of/adjacent to their homes.

[oldnew_guy]

I can only assume that the majority of people that live in these mountain towns and counties over run with STR's and no workforce housing are perfectly fine with it.

Or are their hands tied by state laws that don't let them do anything about it?

[MyNameIsAugustWest]

We're facing a similar crisis in the mountain towns of southern Vermont. State law says anything rented for less than 30 days is considered a hotel but nobody enforces compliance with hotel requirements such as fire codes, ADA access, etc. Some towns have gone so far as to restrict rentals to no less than 30 days (Manchester, VT). Not sure how they intend to enforce that law....

Seasonal rentals are OK in my book because the people tend to contribute to the local economy. Weekenders that are renting an AirBnB tend to bring their own food and booze. It's a big debate in the town that I live in (transparency: I only live there full-time from Thanksgiving to Easter so I can't vote). Many want to follow Manchester's lead but there's a few locals that supplement their income by renting out part of their homes on weekends. Obviously, they are against it and I get their point. They aren't the problem.

A house just behind mine was bought by a person we've never seen. They rented it out to shitheads every weekend. It was worst in the summer when people have their windows open and frat bros are up until 3am partying outside. Calls and letters to the owners did nothing so there may have been a bit of local action to convince them that their model was not the way. The house is for sale right now.

My house is worth 3X what I paid in 2012 but I'm not selling.

[Danno]

We're facing a similar crisis in the mountain towns of southern Vermont. State law says anything rented for less than 30 days is considered a hotel but nobody enforces compliance with hotel requirements such as fire codes, ADA access, etc. Some towns have gone so far as to restrict rentals to no less than 30 days (Manchester, VT). Not sure how they intend to enforce that law....

Seasonal rentals are OK in my book because the people tend to contribute to the local economy. Weekenders that are renting an AirBnB tend to bring their own food and booze. It's a big debate in the town that I live in (transparency: I only live there full-time from Thanksgiving to Easter so I can't vote). Many want to follow Manchester's lead but there's a few locals that supplement their income by renting out part of their homes on weekends. Obviously, they are against it and I get their point. They aren't the problem.

A house just behind mine was bought by a person we've never seen. They rented it out to shitheads every weekend. It was worst in the summer when people have their windows open and frat bros are up until 3am partying outside. Calls and letters to the owners did nothing so there may have been a bit of local action to convince them that their model was not the way. The house is for sale right now.

My house is worth 3X what I paid in 2012 but I'm not selling.

Boulder sucks in many ways but they did seem to nail the STR problem. I may not have the exact details correct but IIRC they require every STR to be owner occupied. So, you can leave for the summer and STR your house, but you cannot STR an investment property. You can STR an ADU (or room in your house) year-round because you occupy the main unit (and are generally there to police behavior). They police it by having code enforcement on airbnb. Some friends have a private downstairs room with a separate entrance they rent on airbnb and they have had code enforcement pose as potential renters on more than one occasion to make sure they were in compliance.

Of course, this isn't a solution for every town, because more resort oriented towns have housing stock that was always intended to be STRs.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I can only assume that the majority of people that live in these mountain towns and counties over run with STR's and no workforce housing are perfectly fine with it.

There are a lot of ways to answer that question. As mentioned up thread, the dirt pimps run the show. Lots of people are in favor of "affordable housing" until the hand is in there cookie jar.

Those that are already on the property ladder feel like they generally have more to lose than gain despite what they say publicly. The Super Karens want no STRs, no high density, low taxes and no decrease in their property values. The Puffy Coat Mafia is generally realtors that own STRs. They are so bad that they'd like there own school district because Granby is down valley trash.

We don't ever talk about the wage scale. Many developers have told me that market rate apartments would be easy if people made more money. Even the subsidized affordable housing products can't even meet there own affordability standards. In Winter Park, that had to push the income standard to 120% AMI so people could afford a $1,900 studio.

[skiballs]

This thread is fucking hilarious.
I live in a resort town/seasonal area and can’t stand the tourists. Yet I’m going to brag about my triple digit equity gain.



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[rideit]

Town and county here (WY) don’t actually have such a big problem with this, no one can afford to do an Air-B-N-B as a pure investment, lol. They are only allowed in very small parts of town, near the ski areas, essentially. (Called the ‘resort overlay’).
we have other problems! !

[oldnew_guy]

There are a lot of ways to answer that question. As mentioned up thread, the dirt pimps run the show. Lots of people are in favor of "affordable housing" until the hand is in there cookie jar.

Those that are already on the property ladder feel like they generally have more to lose than gain despite what they say publicly. The Super Karens want no STRs, no high density, low taxes and no decrease in their property values. The Puffy Coat Mafia is generally realtors that own STRs. They are so bad that they'd like there own school district because Granby is down valley trash.

We don't ever talk about the wage scale. Many developers have told me that market rate apartments would be easy if people made more money. Even the subsidized affordable housing products can't even meet there own affordability standards. In Winter Park, that had to push the income standard to 120% AMI so people could afford a $1,900 studio.

Seems my point has been made. People vote and if they keep putting people in who perpetuate the system then.....maybe they like the system the way it is. (Until their taxes go up by some multiple.)

[Foggy_Goggles]

This thread is fucking hilarious.
I live in a resort town/seasonal area and can’t stand the tourists. Yet I’m going to brag about my triple digit equity gain.

You are not wrong. Tourists don't bother me. They are easy to predict. Know it all second homeowners that think they know what's best for the place are a bit much but also pretty easy to deal with. It's all part of it.

[skiballs]

Town and county here (WY) don’t actually have such a big problem with this, no one can afford to do an Air-B-N-B as a pure investment, lol. They are only allowed in very small parts of town, near the ski areas, essentially. (Called the ‘resort overlay’).
we have other problems! !

Tax haven with a full size airport and a good location, what do you expect?


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[fastfred]

I can only assume that the majority of people that live in these mountain towns and counties over run with STR's and no workforce housing are perfectly fine with it.

Or are their hands tied by state laws that don't let them do anything about it?

everyone needs a boogy man to explain why they don't have shit or can't get shit
so STR is that boogie man right now
a solid balance is needed where I live the local gov't run by bleeding heart people who have never worked a day in their life have done everything to ban short term rentals
note to idiots we live in a tourist town we all depend of toursts for our living and high quality of living standards

if you hate tourists move get the fuck out
don't bitch
pack yoru shit up and move back to some shitty little town where you don't have to deal

[m2711c]

it's easy

you take a loan out against your stocks buy a house it's cash
you take a heloc out against the skyrocketing value of your home go buy another house it's cash

I was advised in the past couple years to take out a heloc for 400k and go buy a house somewhere else cheaper and cooler
it sounded kinda stuipd to me so I didn't

aw fer fucks sake Fred, ya could’ve bought two trailer parks in Plattsburgh with that kind of fucking cash. ya gotta learn to listen to your advisors, son.


tgrz collective could’ve lived off them trailer park stories for fuckin’ years….





fuckin’ a fact.

[neckdeep]

everyone needs a boogy man to explain why they don't have shit or can't get shit
so STR is that boogie man right now
a solid balance is needed where I live the local gov't run by bleeding heart people who have never worked a day in their life have done everything to ban short term rentals
note to idiots we live in a tourist town we all depend of toursts for our living and high quality of living standards

if you hate tourists move get the fuck out
don't bitch
pack yoru shit up and move back to some shitty little town where you don't have to deal

Fredz ya sound just like that guy I know who rents out a windowless 10x15 storage shed in his junkyard for $800/mo.

You two old farts should get together for an "I got mine!" circlejerk.