Real Estate Crash thread

[AdironRider]

Well, that's not really true at all, but yeah, I have worked hard, came from a privileged upbringing, and have been really lucky along the way which has afforded me a bit of financial stability now that I am 40 years old. I'm still one big medical bill away from being totally fucked, though. Just like everyone else. So that's nice.

You literally posted a giant trip report about it. Then use absurd statements like anyone with a college degree has six figures of debt to justify abolishing any hardship one might encounter.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

I’m pretty sure most mortgage lenders use a debt to income ratio for determining ability to afford a loan. The income portion in that ratio is gross income.

https://www.wellsfargo.com/goals-cre...-income-ratio/

Posting a link to WF, a business that should have been shut down years ago for the arguably criminal exploitation of account and mortgage holders is ironic at best.

Other than that, understood that loan calculators look at gross but throwing out gross income numbers for the sake of argument does not take into account taxes, hoa fees and other costs of living that substantially erode affordability.

[Danno]

Adiron, wasn't some of the reason you left WY because the schools and medical system sucked/were understaffed?

Curiously, he responded to tons of posts but not this one.

We aren't setting people up for success is all I'm trying to say, and lots of people from earlier generations had it a lot easier and don't seem to understand that.

Like Conundrum, I'm somewhere in the middle, in that AR is right that people's expectations about what they're entitled to might be unrealistic. But this point is the crux of it all and is pretty much indisputable. Yes, there are affordable towns in less desirable places, but the desirable places are quickly pricing people out. Maybe AR is right that our response to that should be too bad so sad for you, but that response is lame if it doesn't also recognize how much easier it was for a middle income person to make it in those towns 20 years ago, 30 years ago, 40 years ago

[AdironRider]

I missed that reply, but I ultimately left Jackson because I had a son and my life's priorities changed from skiing everyday to a more well rounded existence. I'm getting older and a mountain town isn't going to have world class health care regardless of how affordable one deems housing to be.

To your second point, I think you would be hard pressed to find any community where people didn't argue things were easier 40 years prior before skiing became mainstream. You cannot eliminate that resources are finite.

[Ted Striker]

My wife worked her way through college and regrets missing out on a lot of the college lifestyle stuff that is also important like building relationships, navigating new peer groups, finding interests and hobbies, etc

That's me too. Except it was construction in the summers, and PT retail/restaurant etc during the year. And I literally do not have a single friend from college. I don't really regret it, but if I had a time machine, I would've done it differently.

[Conundrum]

Mush like the tuition forgiveness threads and any number of others, people that had to break their balls want others to do the same.

Nah man you're not. Not even close. Comparing notes, that was/is the typical process for my peer group (primarily middle to upper middle class white kids that went to college and got science/engineering degrees). It's not special or particularly impactful on your ability to own a home in any desirable location.

The notion that individual anecdotes about choices made and pennies saved 10+ yrs ago are relevant to today's challenges (that are supported by actual studies and data sets larger than 10) is mind blowing. But carry on with the boomer shit.

Jesus. I wasn't talking about people being able to buy houses nor were my comments meant to say do some bootstrapping or that things are no different for kids today. I was talking about how I thought Supermoon was off on saying that to earn a master's in education, you'd have to borrow north of six figures. If you can keep your GPA above 3.7 and go to one of the major state universities here, you will spend $45,000 on a master's degree. You have to live somewhere and eat regardless of going to college or not. 15 hours per week of part time work at McDonald's (they also offer tuition assistance not in my calculation) would pay the the university bill. Work a bit more than that and save during the summer and you might come out with a degree and manageable or no debt. $100,000+ seems excessive to me as what someone needs to borrow to get an advanced degree in a field that is hiring.

Sure things are different now but if you're the type of person that borrows $100,000+ to be a teacher and buy a house in Teton Valley, best of luck to you. To my other point, if Teton Valley wants new teachers, Teton Valley should figure out how to make that happen because they will lose teachers to IF.

[Foggy_Goggles]

The Bootstraps Crowd and the Housing is Unattainable Set are spewing bullshit. Stop.

The affordability of housing (rent or buy) in the mountain west (Montrose and Aspen, Jackson and Dubois, Winter Park and Kremmling) has absolutely declined over the last 30 years.

Some expectations are unreasonable starting with the single family house e bike distance from the cool stuff and continuing from there.

Its why the subsidized model isn't/won't work and then you have the NIMBYs fighting anyting that looks like an apartment building. The dwindling moderates are getting sick of throwing up in their mouth listening the extreme view point that this their cause in so just that they'll forward it an any cost.

[californiagrown]

Mush like the tuition forgiveness threads and any number of others, people that had to break their balls want others to do the same.

I think this a simplistic, but fairly accurate take.

[Foggy_Goggles]

And to be fair, top of the institutions that must die list is 4 year college where you get to fuck off, not work, "find yourself" and whine at the bill when you are done.

The robbed of experience argument is entitlement. If you can't afford it. You don't get it. Living in the basement, working, going to community college to, maybe, go to State School to get the four year degree. That not bad or wrong. College isn't job training.

[Danno]

The Bootstraps Crowd and the Housing is Unattainable Set are spewing bullshit. Stop.

The affordability of housing (rent or buy) in the mountain west (Montrose and Aspen, Jackson and Dubois, Winter Park and Kremmling) has absolutely declined over the last 30 years.

Some expectations are unreasonable starting with the single family house e bike distance from the cool stuff and continuing from there.

Its why the subsidized model isn't/won't work and then you have the NIMBYs fighting anyting that looks like an apartment building. The dwindling moderates are getting sick of throwing up in their mouth listening the extreme view point that this their cause in so just that they'll forward it an any cost.

Steamboat has a big plot of land that they are turning into affordable housing (I don't know the exact details so I don't know where it is in the planning stages or what type of housing it will be). But I read an article in the paper about a poll the city did to find out what people wanted to do with the development. The expectations were totally unreasonable, like you say. The majority wanted their own SFR and scoffed at the idea of townhomes sharing walls. Sort of a "they have it, why can't I" POV. Well, "they" bought their place before prices skyrocketed or they came with a boatload of money, neither of which you did or have. So to afford living here, you may have to be happy in a deed restricted townhome and -- god forbid -- not have your own SFR lot.

I think there is an entitlement/expectation problem for some of the have nots, but there is also a bootstrap problem from the people who don't realize that things were way easier 25-30 years ago.

[mcphee]

You cannot absolve life from any and all hardship.

Genuinely curious. What hardships and/or sacrifices did you make to be an accountant in JH?

[altasnob]

The expectations were totally unreasonable, like you say. The majority wanted their own SFR and scoffed at the idea of townhomes sharing walls. Sort of a "they have it, why can't I" POV. Well, "they" bought their place before prices skyrocketed or they came with a boatload of money, neither of which you did or have. So to afford living here, you may have to be happy in a deed restricted townhome and -- god forbid -- not have your own SFR lot.

That's why I laugh at these so called "affordable housing" projects in mountain towns. The price per square foot of land in Steamboat is just as expensive as it is in Seattle yet in Seattle the affordable housing that is being built is studio micro housing yet in mountain towns they still are under the impression that SFR, or even town houses, is going to work. People in mountain towns are delusional.

[Foggy_Goggles]

But the non polar opinions just get drowned out. So the choices/actions become really expesnsive subsidized housing projects with dubious benefits or nothing.

I represent only my opinion but I'm in the thick of it and I hear and see first hand what people see and do. In that last month I've seen people complain that the finishes for the proposed Victoria Village Project in Fraser weren't nice enough, been told that you only need to income qualify once (then you can get your WFH job and so on) and also seen heated opposition to a 90unit studio apartment complex from second homeowner residents in Pole Creek Valley that straight up don't want any development that isn't large single family homes.

[AdironRider]

Genuinely curious. What hardships and/or sacrifices did you make to be an accountant in JH?

All the standard stuff (ramen, camping locally and not a real vacation, etc), but the largest was I bought a small 1 bedroom house that needed a crap ton of work, then got a second job at a construction company so I could learn how to remodel and add a second bedroom myself (and take advantage of their pro rates) then busted my ass for 5 years building all of that nights and weekends myself.

People like to make fun of the avocado toast thing but ignore that skipping the toast is just an example of a mindset necessary to get the shit you want sometimes.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Altasnob, fact matter. Again, you are just making shit up.

The Steamboat Project is called Brown Ranch. The land was donated. https://brownranchsteamboat.org/

Out the window of my house is a proposed 90 unit non-subsidized Studio Apartment complex in Tabernash.

What you see from Seattle doesn't accurately reflect what's going on. But you know this and it's just how you plan internet.

[jackstraw]

Talk to me about in-state tuition in VT and NH and how affordable it is.

[altasnob]

Altasnob, fact matter. Again, you are just making shit up.

The Steamboat Project is called Brown Ranch. The land was donated. https://brownranchsteamboat.org/

Out the window of my house is a proposed 90 unit non-subsidized Studio Apartment complex in Tabernash.

What you see from Seattle doesn't accurately reflect what's going on. But you know this and it's just how you plan internet.

You're providing some anecdotal examples to support your view. People move to mountain towns to escape the dense city life. That worked in the past when land in these rural communities was less expensive than in the cities. But now the land there is just as expensive as the cities. So whether they like it or not, they will be forced to start planning for city-like growth in these communities. Sure, a few 90 studio unit apartments may be built. But in general, you are going to see a ton of resistance to this form of dense development (Danno presented one example). Hell, people fight this kind of dense development in Seattle and San Francisco. But I'll still put my money on the big cities being able to pull this off over mountain towns. Mountain towns are basically just the new form of sprawling, car centric American suburbs.

[Core Shot]

Worker housing needs to be rental.
Sorry bro brah but winning a one time lottery doesn’t entitle you to retire in that fancy ski town. Most people move out and move on. It’s life. Shit gets expensive. And decisions must be made.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Talk to me about in-state tuition in VT and NH and how affordable it is.

I'm guessing it isn't? It is mandatory job training that your kids need to get or is it just some social convention that has become really expensive?

[alpinevibes]

That's why I laugh at these so called "affordable housing" projects in mountain towns. The price per square foot of land in Steamboat is just as expensive as it is in Seattle yet in Seattle the affordable housing that is being built is studio micro housing yet in mountain towns they still are under the impression that SFR, or even town houses, is going to work. People in mountain towns are delusional.

Except that most "affordable housing" projects being built in these delusional mountain towns are condos or townhomes, not SFH. So regardless of what the delusional working class is wanting or hoping for, it's not being built at scale. I realize you derive pleasure from attempting to skewer people's hopes for a better life, but the schadenfreude you seek is not simply as black and white of an outcome as you think.

And I wouldn't mind taking a stab at being mayor here, but until the pay goes beyond the $3400/mo, and/or I find that elusive money-making, ski-pow-everyday side hustle - that ain't gonna work for my economic reality and what I consider to be a pretty full-time role.

[jackstraw]

I'm guessing it isn't? It is mandatory job training that your kids need to get or is it just some social convention that has become really expensive?

University of New Hampshire's tuition is $19,024 for in-state and $37,934 for out-of-state students. Compared with the national average cost of in-state tuition of $11,286, University of New Hampshire is more expensive.



https://www.usnews.com › paying


Just tuition mind you.

[Conundrum]

Talk to me about in-state tuition in VT and NH and how affordable it is.

Wouldn't know. But I do know they can move to a state with lower in-state costs, take a gap year and work to establish residency and then pay in-state. Not sure if that fits with their and their family's goals and post high school dreams.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Counselor, kindly shut the fuck up. I presented those two because its what I know near my house. It not talking out my ass. You back step for faux facts to speaking in hypotheticals.

Why be such a shit bag?

[mcphee]

All the standard stuff (ramen, camping locally and not a real vacation, etc), but the largest was I bought a small 1 bedroom house that needed a crap ton of work, then got a second job at a construction company so I could learn how to remodel and add a second bedroom myself (and take advantage of their pro rates) then busted my ass for 5 years building all of that nights and weekends myself.

People like to make fun of the avocado toast thing but ignore that skipping the toast is just an example of a mindset necessary to get the shit you want sometimes.

So is your contempt for others the fact that they’re not attempting to do what you did or they don’t have the skills to do what you did?

If they did skill up and get “better” jobs, who fills the gap in “low skill” work that’s now open? World needs ditch diggers too, y’know.

[altasnob]

Counselor, kindly shut the fuck up. I presented those two because its what I know near my house. It not talking out my ass. You back step for faux facts to speaking in hypotheticals.

Why be such a shit bag?

It's the same phenomenon occurring in suburbs across the West. Why do you think states like CA, OR, and WA have imposed state level, top down mandates to increase density? It's because all these suburban cities surrounding places like Seattle and San Francisco were refusing to allow enough density to accommodate the growth. Like you, the suburban residents would say, but look at this 90 unit apartment building being built, or look at all these town homes. But it isn't enough. So the state has stepped in and crammed the density down their throats. The suburban residents are just as delusional as mountain town people.