Real Estate Crash thread

[simple]

Rates should stabilize with this last .25 point increase. I think it will help the real estate market with a little less variability through the rest of 2023.

What's so special about THIS .25 increase?

[joeshek]

100% tax valuation increase in Winter Park, CO. I’ve never seen a tax valuation so out of sync with market pricing. No way we could sell at tax valuation price.

Saw the same thing. Anyone been through the appeal process before? Level of effort?

[joeshek]

85% here, yeeehaw https://www.aspendailynews.com/news/...e162eef85.html

What's the likely outcome when each county sees a 50-100% increase in tax receipts. With TABOR, won't we end up just getting refunds for the difference?

[Danno]

Saw the same thing. Anyone been through the appeal process before? Level of effort?

I've not done an appeal in Grand County, but the process is pretty easy in Boulder County.

[Foggy_Goggles]

The increase in AV does not cause an increase in taxes. All the municipalities and special districts set the mill rate and approve an annual budget in a fairly transparent public process.

Don't have faux internet outrage. You may have a limited ability to affect changes. But you do know the ability to educate yourself, own your opinion, and let'r rip! This is a great opportunity to come out of your shell and tell people how you feel with very limited down side.

Get some talking points. Make a quick outline and email it such that it becomes part of the record. Log on to the Zoom and have at it in public comment.

[skaredshtles]

Ours increased 27% (just received the valuation notice yesterday) and the current value seems pretty close to what things have been selling for...

[smmokan]

What's so special about THIS .25 increase?

The Fed specifically called out they don’t foresee needing to raise rates again after this increase.

[Foggy_Goggles]

The Fed specifically called out they don’t foresee needing to raise rates again after this increase.

Buy the rumor, sell the news. This is actually what Jay Powell said, "“A decision on a pause was not made today”.

So unless your been studying Fed Speak since Greenspan, sit in from of a Bloomberg Terminal with high blood pressure, probably best to realize that none of us can see too far past the end of our noses.

[neckdeep]

Is that new, because that definitely was not the case for my house in Victor.

The 3% cap is a limit on how much an Idaho county can annually increase the portion of budget funded by property tax.

There is no legal limit on tax increases for specific properties due to their appreciation.

[zion zig zag]

The 3% cap is a limit on how much an Idaho county can annually increase the portion of budget funded by property tax.

Can they go over this with a truth in taxation hearing? Bonds?

[altasnob]

What's so special about THIS .25 increase?

Fed has been increasing the rate, but by less and less so regardless of what they are saying, one would think this is getting close to the end of the increases.

[neckdeep]

Can they go over this with a truth in taxation hearing? Bonds?

Increases over the limit must be approved by the voters of the taxing district.

[neckdeep]

Property tax should be based upon the sale price, with the yearly increase capped, and should never exceed 10% of the owners total net income for the year. IMO.

The money has got to come from somewhere. Cap the property tax and you'll just end up paying more in sales tax and/or state income tax. Of course, the proportions can be skewed in favor of a certain constituency.

Why do you think so many rich people pretend to be residents of Wyoming? Its simple, really. It's all about the taxes. No state income tax and rock bottom real estate tax on that $25M Jackson mansion. Let the Poors make up the difference when they buy groceries! Which is why Colorado's property taxes are going to be high; it's got one of the lowest sales taxes.

[simple]

Fed has been increasing the rate, but by less and less so regardless of what they are saying, one would think this is getting close to the end of the increases.

I hope not. I'm enjoying having an actual savings account again. Let the fed keep making money on their loans. Maybe buy less missiles and fix more roads ok? Pigs

[Flounder]

Saw the same thing. Anyone been through the appeal process before? Level of effort?

TL/DR; it’s a pain but it can be successful if you are arguing about basic facts for the properties. Appealing because you feel the cost is too high based on comps or the fact that it’s a lot higher than it was seems to rarely be successful.

Sweet blog version: It all depends on how the reevaluation was done and what you want to appeal. We just went through this a couple of years ago in BTV. In our case the city hired a firm to reassess all properties in the city, commercial and residential. They used existing tax data, GIS, and permit histories for the evaluations.

For our house I noticed that the square footage they used was higher than it should be. We added dormers to the upstairs of 1 1/2 story cape house and they just doubled the 1st floor space when a good portion of the space is attic/eave space. I marked up the drawings and took photos.

We first had a chance to meet with a rep from the company doing the work. In a zoom meeting he reviewed, agreed, and said he would submit the change to the group doing the assessments. He also said that most of the time they never bother to correct and we’d have to deal with the city. He was right, the final submission to the city was still incorrect. Guess it’s more profitable to pass along the problem without fixing.

Once the city got the results they set up a limited window to sign up for appeals. I requested a time slot to appear before the local board. A couple of days before the meeting the city assessor reached out as he was reviewing the evidence I submitted. He agreed and we settled on what the final sf would be. The tax was less than what I was expecting based upon a prorated deduction of the size so we agreed.

While it was a pain in that it wasn’t corrected by the vendor when it should have been, in the end no we ended up with a tax amount we felt was fair. We also had a strong factual case and weren’t trying to argue that it was overpriced based upon comps or condition. Based upon comments on our Front Porch Forum, those that tried to argue about comps,condition, or that the increase was just too high were not successful.

[Danno]

It's weird that you say that arguments based on comps are somehow doomed to fail, as I have succeeded on those arguments more than once (and if your location is VT like it shows, my experience in Colorado may be more relevant to joeshek). Back when I owned a house, I appealed the valuation almost every time, and got my valuation reduced more than half of those appeals. The assessor should provide to you the comps they used, as well as a database of all the comps they have. If the comps they used are actually the best comps you may be SOL, but if you can find better comps or can make a good argument for why they should have picked your suggested comps you can be successful. After I did a permitted remodel, it did seem to affect how successful I was (because arguing that the shitty condition comps were the best comps became harder).

[altasnob]

I hope not. I'm enjoying having an actual savings account again.

Your high yield savings account isn't even keeping up with inflation. You are loosing money in the bank each month.

[altasnob]

The money has got to come from somewhere.

Blasphemy! Don't you know everyone on TGR is actually a little old lady living on fixed income. So what they bought their house for 200k eight years ago and now it's worth a million. The government needs to find other ways to fund everything, like taxing tourists and short term rentals. Everyone should have to pay taxes, except for me.

[neckdeep]

Fed has been increasing the rate, but by less and less so regardless of what they are saying, one would think this is getting close to the end of the increases.

Rates are going to go up until wages come down.

The Fed believes inflation is being caused by wage/salary costs. Basically, Labor has too much power over Capital. The Fed's intent is to push us into a place where workers are simply grateful to find employment. If that causes a recession and layoffs, so be it.

The political calculus is that extraordinary inflation has higher political consequences than a recession. A recession is something most people see as cyclical and thus easier to accept. Also, recessions typically fall hardest on the politically weakest. Inflation hits retirees and those folks vote in large numbers.

[climberevan]

Why do you think so many rich people pretend to be residents of Wyoming? Its simple, really. It's all about the taxes. No state income tax and rock bottom real estate tax on that $25M Jackson mansion. .

See also: Nevada. There's a big fancy golf golf course development about a mile from me that basically exists for people to shelter their ducats. Houses go for $6-13M. The website splashes "No State Income Tax" right across the home page.



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[jackstraw]

^with all that you need to have a domicile vs residency status. Some states make it more difficult.

South Dakota can be lumped in with Wyoming and Nevada having no individual income, estate, inheritance, cap gain, and corp income. Pretty crazy really.

NH rates pretty high as a tax haven also.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Rates are going to go up until wages come down.

The Fed believes inflation is being caused by wage/salary costs. Basically, Labor has too much power over Capital. The Fed's intent is to push us into a place where workers are simply grateful to find employment. If that causes a recession and layoffs, so be it.

The political calculus is that extraordinary inflation has higher political consequences than a recession. A recession is something most people see as cyclical and thus easier to accept. Also, recessions typically fall hardest on the politically weakest. Inflation hits retirees and those folks vote in large numbers.

The Fed releases a ‘dot plot’ showing how they expect to adjust rates in the future. No new plot was released yesterday (it wasn’t scheduled), but the previous dot plot showed one single increase forecasted for 2023, and that increase happened yesterday.

[Flounder]

It's weird that you say that arguments based on comps are somehow doomed to fail

Just going by what I saw for complaints amongst our neighbors. None were successful. Of course this reassessment was after a decade of price increases and during the spike of people moving to Burlington during Covid. Current comps were at all time highs. Also most of the neighbors don’t have your lawyering skills. 🤣

[Danno]

Just going by what I saw for complaints amongst our neighbors. None were successful. Of course this reassessment was after a decade of price increases and during the spike of people moving to Burlington during Covid. Current comps were at all time highs. Also most of the neighbors don’t have your lawyering skills. 🤣

Well, if you base your arguments on the comps, you will lose if the comps back the valuation the assessor made! I don't know that it requires lawyering skills at all, but it does involve logical thinking and data analysis. The valuation is based entirely on comps, so if the comps are correct (as in they are the best comps for your property and they support the valuation made) you will lose. But how they pick comps is sometimes a little random (or at least seems random) so if you can find other good comps that support a lower valuation, and make a colorable argument why those comps are more representative of your property, you may "win" by getting your valuation reduced to reflect using those comps.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Your high yield savings account isn't even keeping up with inflation. You are loosing money in the bank each month.

Wealthfront account is 4.55%, and inflation is at 3.55% annual rate over the past 6 months, so it is possible to keep up now.