Real Estate Crash thread

[californiagrown]

They'll be turning those office buildings into apartments and condos soon.

Thats what everyone thought when the pandemic first hit (myself included), and developers and GCs looked into it. Its really difficult to do that, it turns out. From the elevator locations, to fire systems, to utilities, to all MEP work, it all needs to be done differently to work for residential. If the builders had built the buildings with dual purpose in mind, the transition would have been much easier, but conversion to multifamily residential was never considered and is now usually cost prohibitive to do the TI necessary. It might pencil if the building owners are willing to take a big enough loss on their (mostly empty) shiny new buildings in a few years time.

[yeahman]

Thats what everyone thought when the pandemic first hit (myself included), and developers and GCs looked into it. Its really difficult to do that, it turns out. From the elevator locations, to fire systems, to utilities, to all MEP work, it all needs to be done differently to work for residential. If the builders had built the buildings with dual purpose in mind, the transition would have been much easier, but conversion to multifamily residential was never considered and is now usually cost prohibitive to do the TI necessary. It might pencil if the building owners are willing to take a big enough loss on their (mostly empty) shiny new buildings in a few years time.

What's the alternative?

[californiagrown]

What's the alternative?

Hope HARD that the workforce returns haha. Thats what they are currently doing.

Im not saying the conversion wont ever happen, but its a crazy expensive/intrusive process that doesnt pencil currently, or in the near future. Its a waaaaay more involved conversion than most people (not necessarily you) fully realize. I would bet its more likely that they get torn down and purpose-built multifamily gets built in their footprint.

[Kevo]

Can't remember if I mentioned this or not- My company went perma-remote for all US employees this year. There had been talk of some engineering employees returning to office for a few days per week, but those plans were scrapped. We had a week of in person meetings at a rented office space in LA for US employees last week. Everyone is way happier WFH and it was super cheap to rent office space on an as needed basis.

Our CTO, who had been pushing the idea of engineers returning to office, gave up on it and moved to the Spanish Riviera full time. He's now also stoked to be remote. Plan going forward is that we'll do several weeks of in person all hands per year. Maybe every quarter or so.

While in LA I had a meeting with a client that is a very large company. They have a corporate office where they occupy the entirety of a 10+ story building. The entire campus was empty. Security told us we were the first people to visit the 10th floor since November. Most of the client employees who came in for the meeting either hadn't been to the office since March of 2020 or had been hired since then and had never been to the office. There were hundreds of empty cubicles and offices. Not one person other than the people in the meeting was in the office that day. Most neighboring buildings on the campus were also empty.

[alpinevibes]

Go ask your brother in Shoreline if he goes to downtown Seattle and if so, what he thinks of it. It really is a fucked up situation there. Not in the neighborhoods but downtown is really fucked. Portland is even worse. When I read articles (in the Seattle Times, I don't read/watch KOMO) saying Seattle is having to close schools due to declining enrollment, that is not good. California and NY lost more people than any other state in the last year. Do I think Seattle will become the next Detroit? Hell no. The natural environment is a desirable place and will continue to attract people, just like CA. But it shows that regulation and taxing does have a limit, particularly now that people can move anywhere on Earth and still keep their job.

FWIW: both my brothers up in the Shoreline area work in the Columbia Tower; they're in downtown 4 days a week and don't have much to cry about (yes yes: ivory tower, secured garage, but they are physically in the Downtown). No doubt: there have been some big, unsightly downturns to the urban environment, the growth of the homeless metro-wide and the lack of police enforcement to counter the growing crime, but it's not "really fucked."

I'm continuing to engage with you because it's unclear why you keep lobbing inaccurate and outlandish claims about places that you have proximity knowledge of. I want natural spaces to stay natural, I want urban spaces to improve their efficiency and livability and I want ski towns to still have real people, real ski culture and real authenticity within them. All of that comes with a balance, not with detached, draconian hot takes on what serves "you," the manifest destiny taxpayer, the best.

[schuss]

Yep, my F100 employer is fully vacating a multi thousand person building they own because no on comes in. On the flip side, being able to recruit nationally for every position means I have 600+ applicants instead of 10-15

[californiagrown]

Yep, my F100 employer is fully vacating a multi thousand person building they own because no on comes in. On the flip side, being able to recruit nationally for every position means I have 600+ applicants instead of 10-15

I feel so left out. I hated working as one of 2 people in a sattelite office early on in my career, and i hate working from home now. I would never WANT to work from home or 100% virtually. I just had to WFH yesterday because my car battery died and i had to wait for my wife to get home from work later that evening with a freshy from Autozone... it fucking sucked and and was annoying. My ADD ran wild and the handful of IT issues i encountered really pissed me off. Ugh. Im just not one of those people i guess.

The times they are a changin though.

[Danno]

I feel so left out. I hated working as one of 2 people in a sattelite office early on in my career, and i hate working from home now. I would never WANT to work from home or 100% virtually. I just had to WFH yesterday because my car battery died and i had to wait for my wife to get home from work later that evening with a freshy from Autozone... it fucking sucked and and was annoying. My ADD ran wild and the handful of IT issues i encountered really pissed me off. Ugh. Im just not one of those people i guess.

The times they are a changin though.

I don't like working from home much. If I lived 5 minutes from my office I'd go in most days. But it's an hour commute each way, and that time is indispensable to my life.

[californiagrown]

I don't like working from home much. If I lived 5 minutes from my office I'd go in most days. But it's an hour commute each way, and that time is indispensable to my life.

Yep, i bought my house in large part to be <10mins from my office. And i WFH fine during the peak of the pandemic, but I would never choose to do that... unless i also lived >30mins from the office.

[altasnob]

Boise real estate is tanking.
SLC is tanking more. to fall. CPI is up again. Wholesale inflation is up again. Rates need to rise. I think a lot of people who bought in the past couple years are going to be seriously underwater for a long time.

I don't know if I would call that tanking. Like tech stocks, real estate is just going back to where it would be if the hysteria of the pandemic did not occur. The places that went up the most in the last few years are the ones going down the most today.

I actually think it is a decent time to buy right now. You can likely get a good deal and can actually demand credits for inspection items. Interest rates are higher than what they were, but not historically high, and there is a good chance they go down a percentage or so in the next couple years so you may be able to refinance at a lower rate.

[XXX-er]

I spent a total of 15 yrs away from a branch office or any kind of manager and I liked it so much i went back to it

A lot of it was booking OT for not doing much more than staring out the windshield

Lose a big customer in the city it could be your job but out there its more like " i never liked working on that shit anyway " very diverse

[AdironRider]

Hybrid work is my jam. I work remote Monday Friday (or whenever else I feel like skiing) and I still get to bring my A game as needed in the office without burnout. I’m fine if they ever call me back in but I can dig this schedule until that time comes.

I do not like remote only. I find myself in a rut and I really hate being stressed or pissed off about work in my own home.

[altasnob]

FWIW: both my brothers up in the Shoreline area work in the Columbia Tower; they're in downtown 4 days a week and don't have much to cry about (yes yes: ivory tower, secured garage, but they are physically in the Downtown). No doubt: there have been some big, unsightly downturns to the urban environment, the growth of the homeless metro-wide and the lack of police enforcement to counter the growing crime, but it's not "really fucked."

I guess it depends on your definition of "really fucked." I lived in North Beacon Hill from 09 to 15 and walked/biked daily to my office at 1st and Yesler. Daily trips to King County courthouse, Seattle Muni courthouse, and the jail. So I think I have a good frame a reference to what it was like to what it is now. My wife now works in Columbia Tower two days a week. Her employer offers security escort for the couple block walk to the train station because of how sketch it has become. The really depressing area is the International District. Seven Stars, the best Chinese restaurant in the PNW, closed due crime and vagrancy. Hue Ky Mi Gia, another great Chinese restaurant, gone. All the remaining restaurants there have boarded up windows because of repeated broken glass. You can dine in but they seem to be focusing on delivery. These are mom and pops owned and operated by first generation immigrants. The corporate behemoths can weather the storm but these small businesses are fucked. The downfall seems a to be a combination of the high cost to do business in Seattle along with lack of foot traffic due to the rise of work from home. The lack of foot traffic allows petty crime to flourish.

PS, I lived in CO for five years and have been to Aspen numerous times, always passing through to the national forests, and spending as little money as possible there.

[altasnob]

Thats what everyone thought when the pandemic first hit (myself included), and developers and GCs looked into it. Its really difficult to do that, it turns out. From the elevator locations, to fire systems, to utilities, to all MEP work, it all needs to be done differently to work for residential. If the builders had built the buildings with dual purpose in mind, the transition would have been much easier, but conversion to multifamily residential was never considered and is now usually cost prohibitive to do the TI necessary. It might pencil if the building owners are willing to take a big enough loss on their (mostly empty) shiny new buildings in a few years time.

They need to reduce or eliminate building and safety codes, and reduce/eliminate permitting costs, to make the conversion more cost effective. They are not tearing down any of these office towers anytime soon. Even in expensive Seattle the only thing that gets torn down is decrepit old houses and buildings rotting away.

I see this transformation of downtowns as a good thing. The idea of a place where poeple just show up 9 to 5 is stupid. US downtowns should be like downtowns in the rest of the world; a place where people go to socialize, congregate, shop, and live.

[californiagrown]

They need to reduce or eliminate building and safety codes,

Wut?

Of all the things you have said on this site, this might be the dumbest.


What would actually make the conversions easier is if people would accept dorm/hostel style living with shared bathrooms and kitchens on each floor. that would tremendously simplify and cheapen the remodel costs.

[XXX-er]

They have already been doing that ^^ in Turkey where there are 37000 dead in collapsed buildings

[dunfree]

What would actually make the conversions easier is if people would accept dorm/hostel style living with shared bathrooms and kitchens on each floor. that would tremendously simplify and cheapen the remodel costs.

the classic shitty French hotel was a sink in the room and a pisser/shitter down the hall and it sucks; places like that got badly retrofitted with integral units because it’s nice not stepping on Timbahridge shower jizz from another Benny profane post

[PNWbrit]

Wut?

Of all the things you have said on this site, this might be the dumbest.

Yep.

What would actually make the conversions easier is if people would accept dorm/hostel style living with shared bathrooms and kitchens on each floor. that would tremendously simplify and cheapen the remodel costs.

après vous

[altasnob]

Wut?

Of all the things you have said on this site, this might be the dumbest.


What would actually make the conversions easier is if people would accept dorm/hostel style living with shared bathrooms and kitchens on each floor. that would tremendously simplify and cheapen the remodel costs.

In uppity, wealthy places like Seattle people get permits for their home remodels (because they are rich and good little rule followers). Everywhere else, they don't. Some building codes are essential, some aren't (like 7 foot ceilings minimum, door widths minimums, ect). The cost to build or remodel in a place like Seattle has gotten astronomically expensive. If these cities don't want big empty skyscrapers and dead downtowns they are going to need financially incentivize the office to apartment/condo conversation. And rather than just pay developers to do it, it would make more sense to go through all these rules and regulations that make the conversion cost prohibitive and decide which ones are truly essential, and which ones they can let slide. Not across the board, but on each specific project. I am convinced you can do this and not kill people.

Also, they already have shared housing dorm style going in around Seattle. It's the next big thing in development there. The neighbors hate it but can't stop it.

[californiagrown]

Yep.

Eh, the first few years out of college i very much would have considered something like that. But not now. I was just using that as an example of one of the bigger costs associated with repurposing office to residential- sewer water. Each apartment unit has a similar sewer and domestic water demand as nearly a full floor of office. This means ALL sewer water in the building needs to be upsized (assuming htere is room to fit the larger pipes and fittings, but also the sewer and water mains in the streets surrounding need to be upsized too. It would be a crazy cost.

[dunfree]

Eh, the first few years out of college i very much would have considered something like that. But not now. I was just using that as an example of one of the bigger costs associated with repurposing office to residential- sewer water. Each apartment unit has a similar sewer and domestic water demand as nearly a full floor of office. This means ALL sewer water in the building needs to be upsized (assuming htere is room to fit the larger pipes and fittings, but also the sewer and water mains in the streets surrounding need to be upsized too. It would be a crazy cost.

nobody wants to fuck someone that lives in a no bath apartment dude, and if you’ve forgotten, the primary purpose for citys is to find someone to fuck semipermanent

[californiagrown]

Also, they already have shared housing dorm style going in around Seattle. It's the next big thing in development there.

Where?

[altasnob]

Eh, the first few years out of college i very much would have considered something like that. But not now. I was just using that as an example of one of the bigger costs associated with repurposing office to residential- sewer water. Each apartment unit has a similar sewer and domestic water demand as nearly a full floor of office. This means ALL sewer water in the building needs to be upsized (assuming htere is room to fit the larger pipes and fittings, but also the sewer and water mains in the streets surrounding need to be upsized too. It would be a crazy cost.

Well, sewer code would be one that they can't scrap. But there's got to be some regs that they could scrap to make the conversion more economically feasible. Or, at the very least, waive permit fees. Or just repurpose a portion of the sky scraper as residential. Letting them sit vacant as homeless sleep outside and take their shits in the street seems like such a waste.

[altasnob]

Where?

https://www.common.com/seattle/

https://www.cornishcommons.org/floor-plans/

https://www.geekwire.com/2018/co-liv...ousing-adults/

[mud]

^^^Cubicle homes for cubicle people. It's been an ongoing building trend for awhile, not dystopian enough to trigger soviet housing blocks but you will have to share a grill with your comrades.