Is the stock market going to tank?

**J. Barron DeJong** · 07-14-2022, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by Summer

I dunno anything about having a secular stagnation problem, but occasionally I have to get up in the middle of the night to take a piss. That count?

Yeah, it’s not a very descriptive term. Basically it’s saying that the underlying fundamentals of the economy are leaning towards low-growth (lots of workers approaching retirement, not many new workers approaching employment age, low productivity growth), so low interest rates are required to maintain full employment by encouraging investment.

https://time.com/4269733/secular-sta...larry-summers/

**4matic** · 07-14-2022, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by summit

I am such an amateur at this, but my idea is if I'm making a short term bet, only commit to things I also think are a good bet medium/long term so if I'm wrong in the short term, everything works out. I only occasionally violate that rule. This isn't the day-trading warrior way, but it is safer for an amateur like me.

So if you are deployed for mid/long term, you'll be fine if you take no action to immediate news.

Changing time frames in a trade is common. That way you’re never wrong.

**pogs4ever** · 07-14-2022, 09:55 AM

yah, i've been adding to buying my Roth IRA (if market falls after CPI data) or selling some of my RSU's (after random optimism waves after cpi data). emotionally feels good, I think its kind of a wash in the long term, but helps keep my nerves down right now.

**dschane** · 07-14-2022, 10:30 AM

Amateur or expert, things are nutty.

FWIW, I'm 50% cash, 40% equities, 10% hedges. Right now, the cash is losing value, the equities are down, and the hedges are killing it. Didn't have, and never will have, the balls to put more than 10% in that box. I would rather retire modestly (and stay married) then have enough to buy a Tesla Roadster.

**Cono Este** · 07-14-2022, 11:11 AM

I think a new wave of uncontrolled Covid could pile onto this already larger mess. All out of bullets.

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**J. Barron DeJong** · 07-14-2022, 11:13 AM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I think a new wave of uncontrolled Covid could pile onto this already larger mess. All out of bullets.

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Isnt the current concern inflation? Wouldn’t more Covid be deflationary?

**Cono Este** · 07-14-2022, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Isnt the current concern inflation? Wouldn’t more Covid be deflationary?

Recession.

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**J. Barron DeJong** · 07-14-2022, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Recession.

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But wouldn’t that free up some bullets?

**byates1** · 07-14-2022, 11:34 AM

Let's just print a few more trillion and give it to everyone. It'll be great..

**J. Barron DeJong** · 07-14-2022, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by byates1

Let's just print a few more trillion and give it to everyone. It'll be great..

Well, not great exactly, but better than not doing anything and living with unemployment that would cause.

What would you suggest the proper response would be to another major wave of Covid? (Or really anything that’s leading to recession.)

**Kevo** · 07-14-2022, 12:30 PM

What is up with all these days that open down in a big way and then come back to even or up by close? It seems to happen again and again.

**Cono Este** · 07-14-2022, 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

What is up with all these days that open down in a big way and then come back to even or up by close? It seems to happen again and again.

We’re bouncing off previous lows.

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**Toadman** · 07-14-2022, 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

What is up with all these days that open down in a big way and then come back to even or up by close? It seems to happen again and again.

People are buying the dip? Or is it the dead cat?

**summit** · 07-14-2022, 01:49 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Changing time frames in a trade is common. That way you’re never wrong.

I'm trying to avoid changing rationalizations on emotional justifications so I don't fall into traps...

I could still be wrong or very wrong. If I buy SPY on the theory that it will be up several percent at some point in a few days planning to sell it on that, that's nice but risky if that is the sole bet. It is less risky if I am also of the belief it will be up in a few months and also up in 1-2 years. But I could be wrong on any or multiples of those bets.

It seems like a good way to manage risk?

**4matic** · 07-14-2022, 02:15 PM

Originally Posted by summit

It seems like a good way to manage risk?

Not really. So SPY goes up a few percent in short frame and you sell it. But it continues straight up on what could have been a long term time frame. It’s apples and oranges.

**summit** · 07-14-2022, 03:55 PM

Yes that makes sense. 90% of my equities/funds are long term bets. So I'm playing with a small portion for short term.

I guess I should have asked: seems like a good way to manage risk in short term plays?

**4matic** · 07-21-2022, 02:21 PM

Two month low in the 10y note yield.

Four month low close on gasoline

sb · 07-21-2022, 05:08 PM

In China they drive tanks to the banks.

**Bunion 2020** · 07-21-2022, 06:09 PM

The way I see it, if we were to experience a total market bloodbath, that will be the least of our worries.

**4matic** · 07-22-2022, 09:39 AM

10y back to early April yield so the rate hikes are mostly front end loaded now. If the Fed does 75 next week with a hawkish outlook look for curve inversion to accelerate.

**4matic** · 07-27-2022, 07:55 AM

10/2 spread -28bp. Fresh low

**4matic** · 07-28-2022, 08:16 AM

2y rate down 20bp in less than 24 hours. 10y at 2.66%. Curve flattening toward the short end.

**Kevo** · 07-28-2022, 10:13 AM

2 quarters of negative GDP growth. QT starting in September. Inflation still running hot. FFR was just raised again.

Market goes up because people think that fed will roll over and lower interest rates. It is hard to imagine the federal reserve having the political will to actually allow the economy to reset.