Is the stock market going to tank?

[Kevo]

Real interest rates are -7.6% and the Fed is sitting around wondering why it's accelerating. Absolutely unbelievable.

[4matic]

10y note flat and still below 3%. Another lower high.

[4matic]

Real interest rates are -7.6% and the Fed is sitting around wondering why it's accelerating. Absolutely unbelievable.

Tightening into a slowdown is tough enough. Don’t want to hit a wall like a Tesla on Autopilot.

[dunfree]

Real interest rates are -7.6% and the Fed is sitting around wondering why it's accelerating. Absolutely unbelievable.

morepain for the poor never gets old here

[Kevo]

morepain for the poor never gets old here

You still sticking to your thesis that low wage workers are better off with negative interest rates and accelerating inflation while real wages lose ground every month?

[dunfree]

You still sticking to your thesis that low wage workers are better off with negative interest rates and accelerating inflation while real wages lose ground every month?

yes, yes I am rich bitch. Because a job with negative rates is fucking better than no job at all. Even a dipshit like you should be able to understand. Now fuck off to your airplane.

[4matic]

10y note big reversal lower. 2.89% now. 2/10 at -20

[4matic]

1% reversal in the USD. That’s big if it continues.

[4matic]

HYG is well off it’s low made a month ago.

[4matic]

Core problem:

GOLDMAN: “Shelter categories surprisingly accelerated further .. The 36-year-high rent reading poses upside risk to the path of the funds rate in the second half of the year, as shelter is one of the largest and most persistent inflation categories.”

[NakedShorts]

BTW none of the Models can factor in the WAR that is incoming.

The only thing that can go lower than the market is the Old Man's approval rating.

Fed is trapped and Government is run by dumb losers that could never hold a real job.

Dead Cats bounce too but this pain train is just getting started.

Inflation will still be higher as will the Dollar next year.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Core problem:

GOLDMAN: “Shelter categories surprisingly accelerated further .. The 36-year-high rent reading poses upside risk to the path of the funds rate in the second half of the year, as shelter is one of the largest and most persistent inflation categories.”

Note that the CPI data doesn’t (yet) capture the recent moves in rents that private tracking does:



Also note that todays report doesn’t capture the decline in energy costs over the past month, and energy made up about a third of todays number. Next month energy will be bringing the headline number down.

Market currently pricing in two 0.75 increases from the Fed.

[summit]

It's a magic 8 ball, so my bet is quite small

I won my little bet and made $750

[pogs4ever]

was planning to buy the dip after the cpi data, but turns out everyone else did the same. bought some stuff online instead lol, im doing my part.

[4matic]

6 week low on the 30y treasury yield

[4matic]

15y high in the Canada 1yr bond. 3.36%

[JimmyCarter]

Note that the CPI data doesn’t (yet) capture the recent moves in rents that private tracking does:



Also note that todays report doesn’t capture the decline in energy costs over the past month, and energy made up about a third of todays number. Next month energy will be bringing the headline number down.

Market currently pricing in two 0.75 increases from the Fed.

I'm half expecting a 1.0 increase followed by a .75 or .5

Will be interesting to see what happens to rental delinquencies/mortgage defaults in the next few quarters

[Cono Este]

Waiting for the next elevator down. Still holding target at 24k in dow.




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[406]

1% would be interesting.

I keep breaking my rule not to buy individual stocks this year...picked up some TELL @$3 after reading a NYT article.

Would be nice if S&P would hit some new lows.

[4matic]

30yr 3.07
1yr 3.21

[rod9301]

If the fed keeps raising the rates, the federal budget deficit will balloon.

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[Cono Este]

If the fed keeps raising the rates, the federal budget deficit will balloon.

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I’m not a bond guy, but with rates going up, the debt already out there is getting crushed on paper.


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[J. Barron DeJong]

If the fed keeps raising the rates, the federal budget deficit will balloon.

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For perspective:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...just-the-start

Not great, but not catastrophic.

Also, any reason to expect rates to stay elevated for a long time? Summer’s ‘secular stagnation’ problem hasn’t disappeared, right?

[dschane]

Deja vu? . . . higher than expected CPI on a Wednesday morning results in glum start to the day, but by mid-day, there's a wave of optimism that the pundits explain as if it's explainable, and then that's followed up with a wicked hangover on the Thursday.

Personally, I'm a fucking deer in headlights. I can regret that later. Or not.

[summit]

Deja vu? . . . higher than expected CPI on a Wednesday morning results in glum start to the day, but by mid-day, there's a wave of optimism that the pundits explain as if it's explainable, and then that's followed up with a wicked hangover on the Thursday.

Yes this exact pattern is what I banked on. Now I expect volatility with at small rally to sell into before the interest announcement. If that happens I'll sell some. If it doesn't, it will be fine long term.

Personally, I'm a fucking deer in headlights. I can regret that later. Or not.

I am such an amateur at this, but my idea is if I'm making a short term bet, only commit to things I also think are a good bet medium/long term so if I'm wrong in the short term, everything works out. I only occasionally violate that rule. This isn't the day-trading warrior way, but it is safer for an amateur like me.

So if you are deployed for mid/long term, you'll be fine if you take no action to immediate news.