To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[Core Shot]

I guess this was the first Turing?

Hah. I lol’d

Fourth turning should actually have its own thread.

Straus and Howe. Interesting rabbit hole for a rainy day.

[Truckee Joe]

But when you look at the basket of deplorables protesting mask and vax measures it's mostly people in their 30s and above..

They are just the silent minority of the population, so they think. Young people aren't tending towards freedom as a theme. But most people under 25-30 are still under some control of their parents. So I don't know who is in charge anymore.

[CarlMega]

Just to be sure I read this correctly. Some in this thread just wrote "OMG look at NZ now!".

A country with a total of ~150 deaths.

USA is approaching 1,000,000 deaths. While adding 2000 per day.

That can't be right. No one would be stupid enough to go 'neener, neener" - right?

[riser4]

To be fair, there's a big sheep population in NZ and apparently they can't get COVID no matter how hard the Kiwis keep trying to give it to them on those cold, lonely nights.

I think you're thinking of Scotland.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Doc is putting me on a prednisone taper for 9 days for possible post covid myocarditis. If that doesn't alleviate symptoms then they will re-evaluate with more heart imaging/workup etc.

[SumJongGuy]

Doc is putting me on a prednisone taper for 9 days for possible post covid myocarditis. If that doesn't alleviate symptoms then they will re-evaluate with more heart imaging/workup etc.

My wife almost killed me last (only) tile I had to do prednisone.. OCD literally on steroids. I rearranged the entire kitchen, all cabinets, all drawers. She had no idea where to find anything for like a month after that hahahahaha. Enjoy the ride but be safe..

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

My wife almost killed me last (only) tile I had to do prednisone.. OCD literally on steroids. I rearranged the entire kitchen, all cabinets, all drawers. She had no idea where to find anything for like a month after that hahahahaha. Enjoy the ride but be safe..

Yeah I have had prednisone before. It doesn't effect me like that which is good.

[SumJongGuy]

So, boosted 11/11/21.. Tested Positive/Reactive for antibodies last Friday when I donated blood. What are the odds of the booster last November still triggering an antibody positive test? Thinking it's probably more likely that I had Omicron at some point more recently. I've been pretty religious with the KN95s indoors around everyone but family... But wife works in one of those office buildings where more than half of the folks working there weren't complying very well. She does rapid tests occasionally when not feeling 100%, Daughter still gets tested at school ever week.. so no other evidence to support COVID hitting our house again.

Yay antibodies though!

[LongShortLong]

So, boosted 11/11/21.. Tested Positive/Reactive for antibodies last Friday when I donated blood. What are the odds of the booster last November still triggering an antibody positive test? Thinking it's probably more likely that I had Omicron at some point more recently. I've been pretty religious with the KN95s indoors around everyone but family... But wife works in one of those office buildings where more than half of the folks working there weren't complying very well. She does rapid tests occasionally when not feeling 100%, Daughter still gets tested at school ever week.. so no other evidence to support COVID hitting our house again.

Yay antibodies though!

Depends on the antibody test. Some check N protein, some S protein, some both. Most vaccines make you positive for S and negative for N (vs Sinovac would make you positive for both). Covid makes you positive for both antibody types. As time passes (months or years) a test may no longer detect prior exposure. Because antibodies naturally decline.

[Muggydude]

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_11.pdf

Table 13… case rates are now ~4x higher per 100,000 in boosted adults vs unvaccinated populations. Concerning to say the least (a month ago the case rates were 2x higher in boosted people).

Hospitalization rates a bit better in boosted people. Whats that mean if you’re 2-4x more likely to get infected?

Death rates still 2-3x lower in boosted people

[Todd Zander]

I think it means youre 2-4x likely to be in the group of boosted vs unvaccinated.

[jono]

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_11.pdf

Table 13… case rates are now ~4x higher per 100,000 in boosted adults vs unvaccinated populations. Concerning to say the least (a month ago the case rates were 2x higher in boosted people).

Hospitalization rates a bit better in boosted people. Whats that mean if you’re 2-4x more likely to get infected?

Death rates still 2-3x lower in boosted people

I'm only looking at the stats side. Interested to know what vaccine experts think of upcoming omicron-specific vaccines.

That said, the link contains (at least) two relevant parts to answer your question:

"By 13 March 2022, the overall vaccine uptake in England for dose 1 was 69.5% and for dose 2 was 65.1%. Overall vaccine uptake in England in people with at least 3 doses was 50.6%. In line with the programme rollout, coverage is highest in the oldest age groups."

So if all boosters were the same, there would be a correlation between that result and being old. AKA: knowing nothing else, it means you're more likely to be old. (Which is why separating age groups has been really important.) But 'knowing nothing else' is not terribly enlightening, so there's another bit that it's helpful, a look at actual effectiveness:

"Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 has been assessed in England based on community testing data linked to vaccination data from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS), cohort studies such as the COVID Infection Survey and GP electronic health record data. After 2 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant starts at 45 to 50% then drops to almost no effect from 20 weeks after the second dose. With 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna effectiveness dropped from around 65 to 70% down to around 10% by 25 weeks after the second dose. Two to 4 weeks after a booster dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, effectiveness ranges from around 60 to 75%, dropping to 25 to 40% from 15+ weeks after the booster. Vaccine effectiveness estimates for the booster dose are very similar, irrespective of the primary course received (3). Vaccine effectiveness is generally slightly higher in younger compared to older age groups."

IOW: it would also be helpful to know how many of England's "boosted" population got a third shot of AstraZeneca, which may not do enough to counteract the overconfidence. (In addition to age.)

Just a quick scan, though. Ski day. GL

[SumJongGuy]

Depends on the antibody test. Some check N protein, some S protein, some both. Most vaccines make you positive for S and negative for N (vs Sinovac would make you positive for both). Covid makes you positive for both antibody types. As time passes (months or years) a test may no longer detect prior exposure. Because antibodies naturally decline.

Looks like Red Cross isn't testing for both, either or..

The American Red Cross is testing all donations for COVID-19 antibodies for a limited time. Results may indicate an antibody response after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine or possible past exposure to this coronavirus – and may identify donations with antibody levels necessary to potentially help COVID-19 patients with a weakened immune system.

So could be either. I was wondering more about how long a person test positive for vaccine versus how long for previous infection. Is it normal for folks boosted to test positive for antibodies after 4 months?

[LongShortLong]

Looks like Red Cross isn't testing for both, either or..



So could be either. I was wondering more about how long a person test positive for vaccine versus how long for previous infection. Is it normal for folks boosted to test positive for antibodies after 4 months?

My non-expert opinion says an antibody test should be positive for most boosted individuals at 4 months. I'd guess 80-90%. This is an easy study, there should be lots, including studies showing the decline over time. Might be an insert (or FDA filing) with the test that shows that test's performance.

[LongShortLong]

TWiV, at 16 minutes discusses a study to cluster long-covid sufferers. One cluster with chest pain seems to match WRG. Unfortunately, there's no useful information yet, though grouping people by symptoms may eventually be helpful in discovering useful treatments.

Guess that belongs in the (non-existent) long-Covid thread.

Other news from this episode:
There's lots of available treatments for those who qualify (Paxlovid, monoclonals, remdesevir, mulnupiravir - Dr. Griffin's order of preference)
Omicron BA.2 seems to be spreading and Covid cases in US are no longer falling.
We need higher vaccination rates.
You're free to wear a mask even when there's no mandate.

[Muggydude]

I think it means youre 2-4x likely to be in the group of boosted vs unvaccinated.

No - those rates are per 100,000 Boosted people, or per 100,000 unvaccinated people. Not per 100,000 overall population. So it’s saying of all the boosted people, those are the case rates for that group of people. And of all the unvaccinated people, those are the case rates per 100,000 for that group of people.

You can see in table 2a for omicron the vaccine effectiveness is all listed as “insufficient data” for infection. Based off table 13, it’s probably listed that way because the effectiveness based off the raw numbers would be negative (makes you more likely to get infected, from a statistical standpoint). And the authors don’t want to list that.

That being said, hospitalization and death are ultimately mostly what people care about - but with the various studies coming out about the damages of even mild Covid (brain/neuro problems and other things) - not great. Particularly for the majority of the population who would have very mild Covid regardless of vaccination (most of the healthy adult population who aren’t old or have comorbidities). You don’t want to make yourself more likely to get an infection that can lead to long term side effects or damage. Generally speaking, even if you’re asymptomatic, the more healthy people infected - the greater the risk of transmission to other people at risk of severe disease like the elderly and immunocompromised.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/mil...e-study-finds/

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Well, the prednisone seems to be helping somewhat with the chest pain and shortness of breath. It's still there but lessened. Only 2 days into the 9 day. I actually had energy all day yesterday which was cool.

[old goat]

No - those rates are per 100,000 Boosted people, or per 100,000 unvaccinated people. Not per 100,000 overall population. So it’s saying of all the boosted people, those are the case rates for that group of people. And of all the unvaccinated people, those are the case rates per 100,000 for that group of people.

You can see in table 2a for omicron the vaccine effectiveness is all listed as “insufficient data” for infection. Based off table 13, it’s probably listed that way because the effectiveness based off the raw numbers would be negative (makes you more likely to get infected, from a statistical standpoint). And the authors don’t want to list that.

That being said, hospitalization and death are ultimately mostly what people care about - but with the various studies coming out about the damages of even mild Covid (brain/neuro problems and other things) - not great. Particularly for the majority of the population who would have very mild Covid regardless of vaccination (most of the healthy adult population who aren’t old or have comorbidities). You don’t want to make yourself more likely to get an infection that can lead to long term side effects or damage. Generally speaking, even if you’re asymptomatic, the more healthy people infected - the greater the risk of transmission to other people at risk of severe disease like the elderly and immunocompromised.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/mil...e-study-finds/

There were several caveats listed for Table 13--among them the specific warning not to use the data to determine vaccine effectiveness. One caveat--a vaccinated person is much more likely to get tested, especially if mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and much more likely to report a positive result. The hospitalization and death figures are a better indication of vaccine effectiveness, although still this kind of raw retrospective data still has to be taken with a grain of salt.

As has been pointed out numerous times in this forum, systemic vaccines are not that good at preventing colonization and localized infection of the nasopharynx (nose and throat), especially for variants with weaker vaccine effectiveness. Variant specific vaccines and topical (nasal) vaccines would be nice. Meanwhile both RNA vaccines have applied to the FDA for 4 th dose (Pfizer for >65, Moderna for all adults. My guess is that Pfizer intends to apply for all adults but doesn't want everyone pushing the old folks out of the way to get their shots at the same time. And also >65 were the first to be vaccinated after HCW's so presumably have the most fall off in immunity.)

[bennymac]

Well, the prednisone seems to be helping somewhat with the chest pain and shortness of breath. It's still there but lessened. Only 2 days into the 9 day. I actually had energy all day yesterday which was cool.

That sounds promising!

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

That sounds promising!

Well I had about 1.5 good days. Randomly on the drive home from the job today my chest really started to hurt again. Resting HR up to 65 (used to be 50).

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

When I was in school, one of my instructors said "steroids make everyone feel better". And often times they do. It is well known and documented that corticosteroids can induce a feeling of wellbeing, in some, euphoria. It's a bit unfortunate that you are taking steroids empirically, without any diagnostics to suggest the diagnosis.

Basically my doc said we run the course of steroids and if I don't feel totally better at the end we start all the imaging/blood work etc. I do remember that from the last time I had steroid 7 or 8 years ago. Felt pretty fucking good on them. Felt awesome yesterday and this morning. Then shitty again.

[old goat]

When I was in school, one of my instructors said "steroids make everyone feel better". And often times they do. It is well known and documented that corticosteroids can induce a feeling of wellbeing, in some, euphoria. It's a bit unfortunate that you are taking steroids empirically, without any diagnostics to suggest the diagnosis.

When I was a resident we had a surgery attending with bad asthma. We looked forward to pollen season because that is when he was on steroids and not nearly as grumpy.

[Trackhead]

When I was a resident we had a surgery attending with bad asthma. We looked forward to pollen season because that is when he was on steroids and not nearly as grumpy.

Hilarious

[old goat]

Hilarious

I've got a better one. We had an attending Pollack who was about 5'2", and about as bad a surgeon as I've ever seen. Eastern European via Argentina. We had a chief resident Ed who was about 6'2". Before Pollack would come into the operating room Ed would stand on a couple of risers and have the other residents and scrub nurse do the same and then raise the table so the patient was about 5 feet off the floor. Pollack would come in, see how high the table was compared to his chin (not notice that everyone was standing on risers, and leave out of embarrassment. Ed saved a few lives that way.

[Trackhead]

I've got a better one. We had an attending Pollack who was about 5'2", and about as bad a surgeon as I've ever seen. Eastern European via Argentina. We had a chief resident Ed who was about 6'2". Before Pollack would come into the operating room Ed would stand on a couple of risers and have the other residents and scrub nurse do the same and then raise the table so the patient was about 5 feet off the floor. Pollack would come in, see how high the table was compared to his chin (not notice that everyone was standing on risers, and leave out of embarrassment. Ed saved a few lives that way.

Wait for the end, because it is accurate.