Is the stock market going to tank?

[Moeghoul]

I think short term there is much greater threat of deflation. The government has to monetize all this debt, and with banks not lending and unemployment so high, it seems like sort of a short term curb on inflation. Capital and labor markets are preventing the boom from coming down right now (WSJ has had a few articles lately about wages sticking...this isnt condusive to inflation). Unemployment will continue to rise...

Longer term there are very real inflationary pressures as actual growth in the developed markets is limited and due to money being printed at such high rates (longer term, the stimulus/fiscal activity will be monetized) but potential growth is retracting even more quickly. When actual growth is greater than potential, theres inflation. Whether on the way up (bull market) or now.

All good poimts. But the fact that we haven't seen price collapse as in other deflationary cycles makes a case for future inflation. It'll be a currency event that'll trigger it. With everything I've read and the stats I've seen, I'll put it out there. Goldman goes down within the next 90 days.

[iceman]

"Goes down" like "out of business"?

If so I'll take that bet, you racist redneck retard.

I'd put a million dollars on it, but I'd pay if I lost and you'd just change usernames, so fuck that.

Whatever amount you are willing to put up and have somebody else hold, I'm in. Name the amount and we'll find a guy to hold the money. I suggest Blurred.

[Moeghoul]

"Goes down" like "out of business"?

If so I'll take that bet, you racist redneck retard.

I'd put a million dollars on it, but I'd pay if I lost and you'd just change usernames, so fuck that.

Whatever amount you are willing to put up and have somebody else hold, I'm in. Name the amount and we'll find a guy to hold the money. I suggest Blurred.

Did you say something, douchebag?

[Moeghoul]

I've never made a solitary racist comment, I never spent anytime in the south, I don't have a pickup, I don't watch NASCAR, and I drink imports. You musta gotten me confused with someone else. Not surprising coming from a jackass.

[Brock Landers]

We havent seen price collapse yet, and inflation will certainly come at some point, I just think theres a greater chance short term for deflation than inflation. I dont really think itll happen... but price collapse is a lot in how you see things. You think the hotels and travel industry hasnt seen price collapse? Look at all the deals you can score. Airfare too. Oil is down to 63 dollars. Housing is...well...down. This is all with the govt throwing hundreds of billions out there.
CPI doesnt include energy and food anyway, which is kinda bullshit, but everything is set for deflation to actually happen.

I dont think anything will happen to goldman either. Especially in 90 days. The govt cant take a collective leak in 90 days time.

[Benny Profane]

Not that they care. It's their job to make money.

Damn straight. They could give a fuck. They won. Again. They're going to be fucking rich as shit for a long time.

[Benny Profane]

Are we facing a deflationary spiral

Yes. I just can't understand where the "inflation" will come from. As soon as that shit hits, interest rates will rise, and the price of assets, which have already taken a huge hit, will just sink to oblivion. Imagine today's real estate market with 8% mortgages, and 10% unemployment. And, brother, that ain't hyperinflation, by a long shot.

[Moeghoul]

We havent seen price collapse yet, and inflation will certainly come at some point, I just think theres a greater chance short term for deflation than inflation. I dont really think itll happen... but price collapse is a lot in how you see things. You think the hotels and travel industry hasnt seen price collapse? Look at all the deals you can score. Airfare too. Oil is down to 63 dollars. Housing is...well...down. This is all with the govt throwing hundreds of billions out there.
CPI doesnt include energy and food anyway, which is kinda bullshit, but everything is set for deflation to actually happen.

I dont think anything will happen to goldman either. Especially in 90 days. The govt cant take a collective leak in 90 days time.

Going down means they can get bailed out, another too big to fail scenario. Yeah, it's remote, so any bet on this would have to give me big odds. I might be retarded, but I ain't stupid.

[Brock Landers]

The tough part is, how is the govt supposed to fight inflation when it finally does happen (its going to happen)? Raise interest rates....in a very fragile market? Sell more treasuries I guess, but itll take such a long time in addition to the normal fiscal lag

[Cravenmorehead]

[Cravenmorehead]

[Moeghoul]

The tough part is, how is the govt supposed to fight inflation when it finally does happen (its going to happen)? Raise interest rates....in a very fragile market? Sell more treasuries I guess, but itll take such a long time in addition to the normal fiscal lag

That's the conundrum. Looks like the Senate is trying to stall out Ron Paul's effort to audit the Fed and Bernanke is prolly on his way out next Jan. Benny will maintain as low a profile as he can before he gets replaced.

[bennettc14]

One of my stocks that I bought a few months ago is down over 50% FML Could have been a sick new ski setup.

[4matic]

We haven't even had a 10% correction from the peak after a 45% move from the lows. Oil stocks and futures falling are postive otherwise. I'll be a buyer at 870 SP00 and will leg in more at 10% down increments.

There is a good opportunity to buy high yielding blue chip oil stocks at multi year lows in the next few months. Although, the problem with oil stocks is that demand is down and oil companies derive most of their income from retail gasoline sales and not crude oil profits.

Also, bet your ass that Bernanke wil be re-appointed.

Rates are on the verge of an accelerated move lower which might be last chance to sell debt.

Nikkei has support around 8800.

[4matic]

One of my stocks that I bought a few months ago is down over 50% FML Could have been a sick new ski setup.

What was your time frame and what was your risk? Were either defined prior to the trade or is your risk to zero?

[Moeghoul]

We haven't even had a 10% correction from the peak after a 45% move from the lows. Oil stocks and futures falling are postive otherwise. I'll be a buyer at 870 SP00 and will leg in more at 10% down increments.

There is a good opportunity to buy high yielding blue chip oil stocks at multi year lows in the next few months. Although, the problem with oil stocks is that demand is down and oil companies derive most of their income from retail gasoline sales and not crude oil profits.

Also, bet your ass that Bernanke wil be re-appointed.

Rates are on the verge of an accelerated move lower which might be last chance to sell debt.

Nikkei has support around 8800.

You don't think Summers is eyeing up Bernanke's job? Earnings season kicks off tomorrow, I don't think 870 is gonna hold after a parade of disappointments. but the earnings bar is being set so low that not losing a ton of dough is a win. We'll see.

[4matic]

You don't think Summers is eyeing up Bernanke's job? .

No. Unless we hear something from economic council member and former Fed Chairman Volcker or the market, dollar, and rates unravel, Bernanke reappointment is a lock.

[Cravenmorehead]

Pretty head and shoulders on the S&P and DJI. I think we could see 7700ish soon. This low volume will keep the volatility up imo.
Another spate of bad employment numbers and this market will react very poorly. If they are talking another stimulus.....things are worse than imagined.

[ass-to-mouth]

lol...that's a GREAT chart. No wonder real estate is such a shit show.

It's really amazing the free ride dirt merchants have gotten the last few years. Bankers & mortgage brokers have been getting crucified, but dirt merchants for some reason have gotten off easy. They did more then anyone else to create the housing bubble. The dirt merchants I have to deal with on a dalily basis are complete scumbags. It's all about finding suckers, closing deals and moving on to the next clueless dope.

[Cravenmorehead]

lol...that's a GREAT chart. No wonder real estate is such a shit show.

It's really amazing the free ride dirt merchants have gotten the last few years. Bankers & mortgage brokers have been getting crucified, but dirt merchants for some reason have gotten off easy. They did more then anyone else to create the housing bubble. The dirt merchants I have to deal with on a dalily basis are complete scumbags. It's all about finding suckers, closing deals and moving on to the next clueless dope.

Chart was eye-opener for me.

[woodstocksez]

lol...that's a GREAT chart. No wonder real estate is such a shit show.

It's really amazing the free ride dirt merchants have gotten the last few years. Bankers & mortgage brokers have been getting crucified, but dirt merchants for some reason have gotten off easy. They did more then anyone else to create the housing bubble. The dirt merchants I have to deal with on a dalily basis are complete scumbags. It's all about finding suckers, closing deals and moving on to the next clueless dope.

Among all the know-nothings who post in this thread, you may be the know-nothingest.

Real estate agents only just became venal in the last decade or so? Really?

The bubble happened because of mortgage financing shenanigans, not because a bunch of real estate agents suddenly decided to do whatever was necessary to get people to buy property they couldn't afford. Agents were just along for the ride.

[Moeghoul]

TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[4matic]

TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I bought the QQQQ $34.32.

[Moeghoul]

Starting to reload some miners for a bounce, they got beaten like a stepchild. Added more FAZ this AM, I think earnings are gonna blow.

[Cravenmorehead]

Starting to reload some miners for a bounce, they got beaten like a stepchild. Added more FAZ this AM, I think earnings are gonna blow.

I'm loaded up on FAZ too.