Is the stock market going to tank?

**coreshot-tourettes** · 07-01-2009, 12:12 AM

Considering that the S&P trailing earnings are presently at ONE-FUCKING-TWENTY, I'd say we're due for more giant moves to the downside.

A mean reversion means going back to a P/E of 12ish.

So either prices come down 90% or earnings go up 1000%.

Which do you think is more likely?

Cravenmorehead · 07-01-2009, 12:35 AM

Originally Posted by coreshot-tourettes

Considering that the S&P trailing earnings are presently at ONE-FUCKING-TWENTY, I'd say we're due for more giant moves to the downside.

A mean reversion means going back to a P/E of 12ish.

So either prices come down 90% or earnings go up 1000%.

Which do you think is more likely?

Interesting......thanks for the chart.

**bmg97** · 07-01-2009, 08:17 AM

Well I just thought I was rich for a second !! AIG went up to 21.00 per share.... then split

FUCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**4matic** · 07-01-2009, 08:33 AM

Originally Posted by bmg97

Well I just thought I was rich for a second !! AIG went up to 21.00 per share.... then split

FUCK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

20-1 reverse split

**4matic** · 07-01-2009, 08:35 AM

Trade over 930 SP00 turns the short term trend back to higher for a test of the recent high at 956. Nikkei leading the way..

**bmg97** · 07-01-2009, 08:36 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

20-1 reverse split

Yep, like a kick in the dick !

**4matic** · 07-01-2009, 08:38 AM

Originally Posted by bmg97

Yep, like a kick in the dick !

Reverse splits usually end badly. I think this one has a chance..

**bmg97** · 07-01-2009, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Reverse splits usually end badly. I think this one has a chance..

I hope this doesn't end badly. I didn't spend much ($1000.00) for 2000 shares at $.50 per share but would like to make a few thousand. Was just hoping to get alittle help in life from the purchase. RISKS !!!!

**ass-to-mouth** · 07-01-2009, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by coreshot-tourettes

Considering that the S&P trailing earnings are presently at ONE-FUCKING-TWENTY, I'd say we're due for more giant moves to the downside.

A mean reversion means going back to a P/E of 12ish.

So either prices come down 90% or earnings go up 1000%.

Which do you think is more likely?

You obviously haven't been paying attention the past 4 months.

Wall St bloodsuckers don't care about earnings. It's all about green shoots and silver linings.

**4matic** · 07-01-2009, 09:50 AM

Originally Posted by coreshot-tourettes

Considering that the S&P trailing earnings are presently at ONE-FUCKING-TWENTY, I'd say we're due for more giant moves to the downside.

A mean reversion means going back to a P/E of 12ish.

So either prices come down 90% or earnings go up 1000%.

Which do you think is more likely?

From a gold bug site?

Since when does "presently" have anything to do with todays stock prices?

**Benny Profane** · 07-01-2009, 06:24 PM

July 2, 2009
G.M. Stock May Be Trading, but Why?

By JACK HEALY
Major corporations are not known to advise investors that their stock is essentially worthless. But on Wednesday, after several days of high-volume trading of General Motors shares, the automaker warned traders that its stock would have no value when it emerged from bankruptcy.

“G.M. management continues to remind investors of its strong belief that there will be no value for the common stockholders in the bankruptcy liquidation process, even under the most optimistic of scenarios,” G.M. said.

G.M. was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange after it filed for bankruptcy protection in June, but its stock has traded over the counter for more than $1 a share.

Investors holding common shares of General Motors are expected to be wiped out by the reorganization.

**ass-to-mouth** · 07-02-2009, 08:16 AM

YIPPEEEE!!! We only lost 467,000 jobs last month.

Markets should rally huge today. DJIA +3% easy. The only thing Wall St. bloodsuckers love more then free taxpayer bailout money and $25,000 dollar toilets are job cuts. Lots and lots of job cuts.

That's 72 months of job creation wiped out in just 18 months.

GREEN SHOOTS!!!...SILVER LININGS!!...LAGGING INDICATORS!!!...BUY!!,BUY!!,BUY!!

**4matic** · 07-02-2009, 08:19 AM

Failure on employment news is not good. There's a 50/50 chance for a rally back today but 870 SP00 next week is looking likely. Any close above 900 is still positive for further gains. I like that the dollar is rallying keeping commodities in check. Gasoline is weaker than crude and that's positive for US economy as well as lower rates. The ten year chart is at a critical juncture:

http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart...artUi.minutes=

**Moeghoul** · 07-02-2009, 08:19 AM

TIMBERRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**ass-to-mouth** · 07-02-2009, 08:24 AM

PFFT...We don't need jobs. Wall St. will lead us all to the promised land.

HALLELUJAH!!!!!

**Moeghoul** · 07-02-2009, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by ICEHOCEY77

Oil is going to start dropping in the next month. 62 is the next real S/R with 55 being a long term target.

Good call, I got dinged going long and bailed. Gonna stay outta oil for the time being.

**grrrr** · 07-02-2009, 03:55 PM

I've decided to dump all my earnings into the production of "Michael Jackson...the Musical".

**Moeghoul** · 07-07-2009, 10:56 AM

TIMBERR!!!!!!!!!

**Poop~Ghost** · 07-07-2009, 11:14 AM

Are we facing a deflationary spiral or will the monetary and fiscal stimulus ultimately create (hyper) inflation?

I just read an interesting take on this question... obviously not an easy answer.

**Moeghoul** · 07-07-2009, 11:25 AM

Originally Posted by Poop*Ghost

Are we facing a deflationary spiral or will the monetary and fiscal stimulus ultimately create (hyper) inflation?

I just read an interesting take on this question... obviously not an easy answer.

We;re in uncharted waters, nobody has a fucking clue. I've read both sides of the argument and each side is compelling. But i'm leaning towards the inflation argument, especially if Congress lobs another stimulus bomb.

**Brock Landers** · 07-07-2009, 11:55 AM

I think short term there is much greater threat of deflation. The government has to monetize all this debt, and with banks not lending and unemployment so high, it seems like sort of a short term curb on inflation. Capital and labor markets are preventing the boom from coming down right now (WSJ has had a few articles lately about wages sticking...this isnt condusive to inflation). Unemployment will continue to rise...

Longer term there are very real inflationary pressures as actual growth in the developed markets is limited and due to money being printed at such high rates (longer term, the stimulus/fiscal activity will be monetized) but potential growth is retracting even more quickly. When actual growth is greater than potential, theres inflation. Whether on the way up (bull market) or now.

**Stu Gotz** · 07-07-2009, 12:36 PM

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aoSjBHO2lOJk

"The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways," Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public today. "The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it."

Goldman basically outs themselves as a firm that manipulates the markets wih their high frequency trading programs.

**mock vomit** · 07-07-2009, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

...Goldman basically outs themselves as a firm that manipulates the markets wih their high frequency trading programs.

I thought the same thing when I read it... the system is f'd up and rigged against the little guy top to bottom IMHO.

**Hutch** · 07-07-2009, 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aoSjBHO2lOJk

"The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways," Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public today. "The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it."

Goldman basically outs themselves as a firm that manipulates the markets wih their high frequency trading programs.

Just wait until Matt Taibbi gets a hold of this.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...bubble_machine

**Stu Gotz** · 07-07-2009, 03:21 PM

"The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

That phrase will follow Goldman for a long, long time. Not that they care. It's their job to make money.