Real Estate Crash thread

[Danno]

Interestingly, property values in my new neighborhood rose 12% last year.

Don't have a figure for mine, but I know that the "housing bubble burst" has only meant slow increase for it, not decrease. :shrug:

[mcsquared]

Take out any loans on that?

Nope. I haven't needed to. But I did cash out some of my gains by subdividing my property and developing it. Admittedly, I wish I had done it a year earlier or a year later because I probably could have gotten more.

[Benny Profane]

Nope. I haven't needed to. But I did cash out some of my gains by subdividing my property and developing it. Admittedly, I wish I had done it a year earlier or a year later because I probably could have gotten more.

Wait a minute. "Cash out"? Isn't that a loan? Maybe this is America's problem right now.

[RootSkier]

Reading comprehension, Benny. Try again.

[Benny Profane]

Reading comprehension, Benny. Try again.

No, I'm a dumbass. You explain, Shakespeare.

[mcsquared]

No, I'm a dumbass. You explain, Shakespeare.

I bought a house that sat on a double lot. I built on that extra lot. Sold what I built for more than it cost to build. Got a check which I take to the bank and exchange for cash.

[Benny Profane]

That's not cashing out as most understand it. It's successful and profitable real estate development. Cashing out is sucking the equity out of your assets by refinancing.

[mcsquared]

That's not cashing out as most understand it. It's successful and profitable real estate development. Cashing out is sucking the equity out of your assets by refinancing.

No, cashing out means converting an asset to cash. Usually by selling it. i.e. I am cashing out of my hookers and blow business. Or Michael Jackson cashed out his music library. You are kind of right, people do call it a "Cash out refinance". But getting a loan and dooming society is not the only way to cash out.


And benny, I am not trying to rub it in your face. I admit, what I do is not what your typical homeowner does and I agree that people have used their equity irresponsibly. But I also have experienced this "crash" from both the buyers side and the sellers side on a daily basis. And all I am saying is that things are not as bad as you think and I think you are making a mistake by waiting for the bottom to fall out. Remember pigs get slaughtered.

[Benny Profane]

Or Michael Jackson cashed out his music library.

Hey, we were talking about this last night at work. Did he sell the Beatles catalog?

[Benny Profane]

And all I am saying is that things are not as bad as you think and I think you are making a mistake by waiting for the bottom to fall out. Remember pigs get slaughtered.

Unless you're living in Charlotte, I don't know how you can look at that chart above, or read the financial page, and say that. We are in the middle of a financial panic right now. Fortunes are being lost, and hardly any are being made.

[ColMan]

A good source for that data is this thing they have at denverpost.com
http://www.denverpost.com/graphics/ci_6797508

Great site. Haven't seen anything that neighborhood specific before. I'm in West Wash Park and the numbers are inline with what I have seen around here over the past year. Though I think most of the boost was due to the light rail. The thing that is killing me about Wash Park is that they are tearing down single family homes and putting in duplexes all over the place (at least for blocks zoned R2). It's increasing density and I don't think it's good in the long run, even when they are selling for $650k-1M. We are planning to either add a 2nd story or move this summer.

[timvwcom]

I'd just like to remind the assembled that MOST (if not all) of these reports on "price increase/decrease" or "home value increase/decrease" are BASED ON USING AN AVERAGE OR MEDIAN SOLD PRICE and not really even close to a scientific measurement. I would advise you are ESPECIALLY careful with newspaper media figures... There are times these averages and medians are good representations of the market, and times when they are dramatically inaccurate.

Here's why... The market has trends in which one portion or the other of the price spectrum has more or less activity. The expensive side tends to be smaller in volume and somewhat more reactionary in my experience - sometimes the expensive homes are selling briskly, other times few are moving. As a result, any calculation using the simple average or median sales price across the entire spectrum of values can be dramatically affected when there is a big change in the number of these sales. If number of sales above say... the 75 percentile fall by say... 50% between two measuring periods, it will appear as if the average or median sales price has taken a dive, when in reality no such decrease may have happened. The reverse, a significant increase in sales in the more expensive homes, is also often reported as a large property value increase when it is substantially due to just more of the higher priced homes selling. This often occurs when an area with historically smaller homes, has a building boom of larger more expensive homes... the media report it using phrases like "prices jump by 35% in (so and so area)", when values are likely more moderately increasing in single digits.

This comparison of value changes BETWEEN areas, especially when they have different types of average prices, can be basically useless using these (often mislabeled) averages or medians. Especially since one report might be using one method, and others are using a different one. I've tried to envision a more accurate calculation method for increases/decreases. Some appraisal studies have used the sale of the same home method, but there are often too few of those to be helpful. The best I've been able to envision is one that uses the "sold price per square foot" of identical home types (1 stories only, 2 stories only, etc) within a set price range ($200K to $500K etc)... This would remove the errors from commingling expensive and cheap homes, and from simple variance in home type/age/sizes of homes. Is a bitch to get the data and do the numbers in the dozens of communities in each metro area though... For example we have more than 74 municipalities within about 45 minute drive from downtown Milwaukee.

In my experience very few real estate companies or agents do much to try and expand the bounds of the way real estate data is reported... It can be quite difficult to do, but the results can be very, very helpful to understand a market. Here is an example of one of several dozen different graphics I create for my personal web site. (I update the data/charts every other year or so since it is so labor intensive... this last updated a year ago)

[mitch buchannon]

Great site. Haven't seen anything that neighborhood specific before. I'm in West Wash Park and the numbers are inline with what I have seen around here over the past year. Though I think most of the boost was due to the light rail. The thing that is killing me about Wash Park is that they are tearing down single family homes and putting in duplexes all over the place (at least for blocks zoned R2). It's increasing density and I don't think it's good in the long run, even when they are selling for $650k-1M. We are planning to either add a 2nd story or move this summer.

What is it that you don't like about increased density?

Just curious as I see increased density (not high rises, but duplexes and such) as a pretty responsible form of development. Seems like it can still keep the relaxed vibe but allow more people to live in a good urban neighborhood.

[Benny Profane]

What is it that you don't like about increased density?

Just curious as I see increased density (not high rises, but duplexes and such) as a pretty responsible form of development. Seems like it can still keep the relaxed vibe but allow more people to live in a good urban neighborhood.

Yeah. this is why some, if not many cities, will do well in the coming energy crunch. Ain't nothing more irresponsible than living in a Macmansion and driving 4 cars to distant jobs or shopping when it comes to energy use. An apartment building close to a subway, bus, or light rail is a much wiser choice. Like NYC.

[ColMan]

I guess it's not the increased density that I have a huge problem with but rather the architecture of the new construction. For instance, there is a triplex going in a block up from me (tore down two homes on double lots) that is super modern, 3 stories per unit (towers above everything), and right next to small 1-story English Tudors built back in the 20's. While some have been built to blend in with the existing homes, a majority of these things are an eyesore. I would rather Wash Park not turn into another Cherry Creek.

[kokomas]

Some appraisal studies have used the sale of the same home method, but there are often too few of those to be helpful.

for very micro level data, i agree with you, its very hard to come by. on a larger scale though, the two main measures for regional and national homeprices, the ofheo and case-shiller utilize the sales of same homes to get around the problem of medians and means you are talking about. this approach tends to show extra appreciation over time as owners put in enhancements to the same home, making it look like prices are rising even though what is selling is a little better than the original home. i am not sure if or how they adjust for this in the measures. these measures of course have their own issues like i mentioned above.

[Rontele]

I guess it's not the increased density that I have a huge problem with but rather the architecture of the new construction. For instance, there is a triplex going in a block up from me (tore down two homes on double lots) that is super modern, 3 stories per unit (towers above everything), and right next to small 1-story English Tudors built back in the 20's. While some have been built to blend in with the existing homes, a majority of these things are an eyesore. I would rather Wash Park not turn into another Cherry Creek.

As a duplex owner as of Monday, its a great option for those not wanting the upkeep of a older single family home, nor able to afford one of the new single family homes in that neighborhood.

[timvwcom]

As a duplex owner as of Monday, its a great option for those not wanting the upkeep of a older single family home, nor able to afford one of the new single family homes in that neighborhood.

CONGRATS again on that!!!

[zion zig zag]

Housing prices in Weber county (Ogden) are up 20% over this time last year.

[comish]

Timvw, I was gonna say the same thing you did with the caveat that Koko wrote below. Newspapers here use median which is very easily distorted. Its an interesting world out there.

Prices, going by the median, are still up in my area, but anecdotally they are down a bit from the peak and probably mostly leveled off. I also don't think the pain has migrated this far west (LA) so it is likely that it is coming this way, but who knows. You look at the Case shiller and one would probably think that the sky is falling in LA, but it completely depends on the submarket currently. I'm a pessimist in the short term, so haven't drank the kool aid, but the data just doesn't show much of a drop in prices on the west side of LA. Definitely a drop in volume, which typically fortells a drop in prices, but we also have low inventory which is also counter to what is going on in the rest of the county and country.

for very micro level data, i agree with you, its very hard to come by. on a larger scale though, the two main measures for regional and national homeprices, the ofheo and case-shiller utilize the sales of same homes to get around the problem of medians and means you are talking about. this approach tends to show extra appreciation over time as owners put in enhancements to the same home, making it look like prices are rising even though what is selling is a little better than the original home. i am not sure if or how they adjust for this in the measures. these measures of course have their own issues like i mentioned above.

[Rontele]

CONGRATS again on that!!!

Thanks, Tim. It isn't done until we close, but its getting close. The builder/developer has been incredible to work with. They are, however, trying to stick me with their cost overages for lighting when that was included as a fixture in the purchase contract.

I won't let it kill the deal, but I refuse to be nickle and dimed by them.

[ColMan]

As a duplex owner as of Monday, its a great option for those not wanting the upkeep of a older single family home, nor able to afford one of the new single family homes in that neighborhood.

I understand. For me, the ones that don't fit in with the area (i.e. the 4,200 sq/ft per unit triplex that I mentioned in my previous post) is what really pisses me off. There is no need to put up nearly 13,000 sq/ft of living space on a small footprint.

Also, congrats and welcome to the neighborhood!

[Rontele]

I understand. For me, the ones that don't fit in with the area (i.e. the 4,200 sq/ft per unit triplex that I mentioned in my previous post) is what really pisses me off. There is no need to put up nearly 13,000 sq/ft of living space on a small footprint.

Also, congrats and welcome to the neighborhood!

I agree with that. There is a triplex on the 1800 block of Sherman that was just poorly conceived. They absolutely ruined the opportunity they had to put up a well designed duplex on a corner lot.

Our duplex fits in well with the changes happening in the 'hood. Incidentally, the developer of our property also developed the property next door as well as one on Washington and another on Pennsylvania. The floor plan is great, with no wasted and nothing but good, practical, and useable space. Plus, there is minimal lawn for upkeep, but a nice patio in the back for privacy.

[Benny Profane]

Well, I guess the line in the sand has been drawn.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/us...mccain.html?hp

Drawing a sharp distinction with the Democratic presidential candidates, Senator John McCain, warned on Tuesday against hasty government action to solve the mortgage crisis, saying “it is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers.”

In an address focusing on domestic issues following his stops in the Middle East, Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, did not propose any government bailout.

“Government assistance to the banking system should be based solely on preventing systemic risk that would endanger the entire financial system and the economy,” said Mr. McCain, spoke before a business group in Santa Ana, Calif.

His comments came a day after Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton called for aggressive federal intervention to help troubled homeowners, including directing $30 billion to states to help homeowners at risk of foreclosure. Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic opponent, Senator Barack Obama, has similarly called for active federal intervention, including a $10 billion relief package to prevent foreclosures.

[timvwcom]

Thanks, Tim. It isn't done until we close, but its getting close. The builder/developer has been incredible to work with. They are, however, trying to stick me with their cost overages for lighting when that was included as a fixture in the purchase contract.

I won't let it kill the deal, but I refuse to be nickle and dimed by them.

Well... If you would have had an "attorney" review the contract you might not have had this issue?

Sorry, sometimes just can't help myself. In my experience here in our market, the lighting and flooring are usually done as "allowances" and depending on buyers choices, they could owe more (or expect a refund - not often happens). Must not have been the case there?