Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[HikeforTurns]

zoinks....

[funkendrenchman]

Currently nuking at 1-2"/ hour

[Rontele]

Currently nuking at 1-2"/ hour

That is what happens when you get a stand-up cold front with an awesome baroclinic structure.

[Z]

That is what happens when you get a stand-up cold front with an awesome baroclinic structure.

Yeah, that.

Or some snow.

[jon turner]

That is what happens when you get a stand-up cold front with an awesome baroclinic structure.

Exactly what I was thinking. Uh-huh. I'm glad you're here to explain all the technical weather stuff. I see snow. I ski. I get happy when NOAA says there will be snow, but I can't explain it. Where did you learn all your weather knowledge? Reading books on your own or classes? Any books you recommend if that's the case?

[Rontele]

Exactly what I was thinking. Uh-huh. I'm glad you're here to explain all the technical weather stuff. I see snow. I ski. I get happy when NOAA says there will be snow, but I can't explain it. Where did you learn all your weather knowledge? Reading books on your own or classes? Any books you recommend if that's the case?

I started following and learning about weather roughly four and half years ago when I started backcountry skiing. I believe strongly in order to understand the dynamics of the snowpack, you need to understand where the snow comes from.

All of the stuff I learned came from reading different forecasts (I don't really attempt to read the actual computer models, but rather rely on the professional's prognostications).

I found that a great way to learn is to open the NOAA forecast discussions in one window and google in another window. As you read the forecast and don't understand what they are talking about, just google it. It will take some time, but you'll come to understand the weather patterns in the state.

I've provided links to most of the tools I use to make my own analysis in the Snow Conditions thread in the avy forum.

Yeah, that.

Or some snow.

durrrrrr. where do you think the snow comes from?

In this case, funken sees the really heavy snowfall because unlike the past few systems, this system is coming in with a very strong and well defined cold front. Thus, there is a baroclinicity (a change in temperature), these drastic changes in atmospheric temperatures create instability, which lead to heavier snowfall (think about thunderstorms during the spring and monsoon season). This is overly simplified, but hopefully gives you an idea.

I love talking and discussing weather. But the last thing I do is forecast. That is way way way way way way way over my head. I just like to take the knowledge that is out there, synthesize it, and have an idea about what the forecasters are talking about and temper the butthurt whining expectations of montanaskier

[montanaskier]

Never seen it as bad as it is now. CRAZY WINDY, can't tell if it is dumping or just blowing all the snow on the ground around. Can't see the house across the street, went next door to tell my neighbor something and my tracks were filled in when I went back across the street....like 2 minutes. Wind is ridiculous right now.

[smmokan]

Yeah, it just kicked up like crazy here in north Denver.

[Rideski]

I washed my Jeep for all of you people that can take tomorrow off.

I like Guinness...

[montanaskier]

I heart this pattern.

[montanaskier]

Yesterday was amazing seeing the cold front pass thru Vail. It was just barely snowing all morning and no wind. All of a sudden, the temp dropped like 15 degrees in 15 min, wind started howling and some of the hardest snow I have ever seen started dumping. An hour later, it was all over.

[pappag]

SHHHhhhhhhhh.....



SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 4 BELOW TO 14 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOWS 5 TO
15. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

[Rideski]

What we really could use right at this particular moment is an epic ABasinStone dummmmmpage.

[Rideski]

Anyone in the Vail area able to give real time update about 8 tonight?
Dopplers are not telling much for this storm.

Monarch is looking to get hammered.

[funkendrenchman]

Anyone in the Vail area able to give real time update about 8 tonight?
Dopplers are not telling much for this storm.

Monarch is looking to get hammered.

The Aspen area has picked up another 4" or so in town this evening.

[Rideski]

Thanks. Interesting how it does not show on the doppler, I've been watching all night. The satellite has been looking good. And refreshing noaa they keep saying it is snowing lightly. Pretty interesting that over the course of the evening, noaa changed the predicted overnight total up and down at least three times.


Looks like tomorrow is on.

[Z]

The conditions are pretty much all-time, everywhere. Except of course, for the front range. Yet we deal with retarded traffic and epic winds all winter. What gives? Is it the amount of traffic and greenhouse bullshit on I70 that kills the storms? Learn me, rontele. Why does every single storm just die around Vail or Aspen while we get left with 157mph winds?

Let's just say im over it. Our snowpack is absolute shit, like always. If I never ski another day in Summit County that'd be just fine.


hate over.

[pechelman]

keystone has installed a larger donut that now encompasses all of summit county

[Z]

I heard it was part of the new plan senator Romer came up with to reduce ski traffic.

ps. he's also the one that put the beatle infestation in place to help reduce the summer road load.

there's another thing. How come there is no beetlekill in SW CO? I'd put my money on the amount of cars and pollution coming up i70. Thought about this on my way back from Crested Butte this weekend. As it fucking PUKED the whole time.

Seems interrelated to me. I don't know how. It just does.

[lemon boy]

there's another thing. How come there is no beetlekill in SW CO? I'd put my money on the amount of cars and pollution coming up i70. Thought about this on my way back from Crested Butte this weekend. As it fucking PUKED the whole time.

Seems interrelated to me. I don't know how. It just does.

IMO this is two things:
different types of trees
not as bad a drought

[stupendous man]

my opinion that it's the way it's been thanks to the prevelant storm track (westerly <monarch, RF valley, Vail>, southwesterlies <CB, SJ's, Taos>) which puts summit in the rain shadows. They need the PacNW flow for least shadow and best orographics.

x2 - Summit and front range are in rain shadows. precip dumps on the westerly ranges and the storms stall out. its warmer down on the front range and cold air from the mountains moves to warm temps = wind. if you've ever skied breck and watch the cloud slowly roll in the valley with a big dump, you know the w/nw flow benefits that area.

steamboat gets both sw and nw storms cuz of its position as the divide with no blocking ranges.

as for the beetles, they're attacking overgrown sickly lodgepole pine forest. sw colorado has beautiful aspen and old growth spruce/fir. that shit was all decimated in summit during the mining boom, which happened to a much lesser extent in sw colorado.

[lemon boy]

the I-70 theory though falls apart when you consider that Grand County is way more decimated than the I-70 corridor.

[funkendrenchman]

The conditions are pretty much all-time, everywhere. Except of course, for the front range. Yet we deal with retarded traffic and epic winds all winter. What gives? Is it the amount of traffic and greenhouse bullshit on I70 that kills the storms? Learn me, rontele. Why does every single storm just die around Vail or Aspen while we get left with 157mph winds?

Let's just say im over it. Our snowpack is absolute shit, like always. If I never ski another day in Summit County that'd be just fine.


hate over.

What you mean the 110" base at Highlands or the 170" base at Wolf Creek? I'm pretty sure we just hit our season total from last year, which wasn't a bad winter.

[jon turner]

Not so fast. The theory can still hold water. How about the infestation between Georgetown and Idaho Springs. (Maybe it was a worm and not a beatle - but same result). That kill happened 15-20 years ago. Different type of tree. Now there is one happening above Plume on up the valley. Also the growth and related traffic/impact in both Grand and Summit cnty were say 1/3rd to half what they are today. Also they say the beatle is down this way in Chaffee. But here we're loosing mostly Ponderosa (not on as big of scale but we're working on it), not the Lodgepole like GC & SC.

Maybe it's all just forest MIS-management, but the weak growth rings I noted above dating along with the increased pollutants from the interstate still peak my attention on the "theory."

Also I note a mean temperature increase up there in the Silver Valley in the summer quite often. I had never seen it above 70°f when I used to live there and now I see it all the time.

This was in the Leadville paper last week:

"There is no longer much offi­cial doubt that the bark beetle will kill all the lodgepole pines in Lake County within the next few years. On Jan. 14, U.S. Forest Ser­vice officials announced that they expect all mature lodgepole trees within the state of Colorado to be dead within the next 3-5 years. Once considered to be an issue only in northern Colorado, the pine beetle is now spreading throughout the state, said offi­cials. Lake County was one of six counties identified as having a 'new' epidemic on its hands."

I remember hearing that it was thought that Lake County might not be affected by the beetle too much because of the colder temps at higher elevation, but it looks like that might not be true.

Pine beetles aren't necessarily a bad thing for a forest either. The dead wood can be a fire hazard for nearby communities, but the thinning of the forest to allow new growth can help diversify the forest. The dead wood if allowed to decay can replenish the soil. If the natural processes are allowed to run its course, it is just part of the succession of the forest. It works similar to the action of a forest fire, which there is an argument that our over-suppression of natural fires has hurt the overall health of forests as well.

[Z]

What you mean the 110" base at Highlands or the 170" base at Wolf Creek? I'm pretty sure we just hit our season total from last year, which wasn't a bad winter.

Im only talking about what CAIC considers the Summit and Front range zones. Seems like we get psyched to get the "tail-end" of storms. F that.