Is the stock market going to tank?

[Iowagriz]

12.04% Annualized since 1/1/2021. This is when the company moved to our current 401k holder (Empower). Maybe 50% company stock (big part of the returns recently), 20% bonds, 30% split into the normal funds (S&P, Large Cap, Small Cap, Emerging Markets).

I've been buy and hold forever. I watch it closely and rebalanced the 30% every 2 years or so. Always want to make bigger moves, but end up holding.

[californiagrown]

Im too lazy to figure out how to look back more than 3 years in my etrade account...

In my YOLO account i am up 139.6%
In my "retirement" account i am up 33.9%
Dow is up 27.9%
Nasdaq is up 40.8%
SP500 is up 35.3%


My YOLO account is a combination of full on luck that i was deploying a very large (relative) amount of saved cash into the market for the first time right around the start of 2021, the fact that everyone did well over that time period, and that i gambled fairly big on META a couple years back when it crashed down to $100, and i also through dumb luck hit on VST a couple years back. My "retirement" account is doing, well, about what it should be doing... following the market.


I rebalance every year to keep about 66.6% in my safer "retirement" account, and 33.3% in my YOLO account.

[NBABUCKS1]

and name redacted if you are new to this none of this has to be as complicated as anyone here makes it out to be.

just put it all in an s and p 500 index fund or a target date fund and just forget about it.

it's all really easy

[J. Barron DeJong]

and name redacted if you are new to this none of this has to be as complicated as anyone here makes it out to be. just put it all in an s and p 500 index fund or a target date fund and just forget about it. it's all really easy

Yeah, you could do a lot worse than checking what Vanguard is invested in in their target date funds and copying that strategy on you own (assuming your 401k isn't with Vanguard).

[californiagrown]

Etrade and im sure all the other platforms have simple retirement programs that you do where you simply put in your retirement date, transfer the funds, and they currate the retirement account for you. It will perform 100% as well as anything a financial advisor will put together, and you wont be paying the 1% per year fee.

[Name Redacted]

<p>

12.04% Annualized since 1/1/2021. This is when the company moved to our current 401k holder (Empower). Maybe 50% company stock (big part of the returns recently), 20% bonds, 30% split into the normal funds (S&amp;P, Large Cap, Small Cap, Emerging Markets). I&#39;ve been buy and hold forever. I watch it closely and rebalanced the 30% every 2 years or so. Always want to make bigger moves, but end up holding.

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Yeah, I have a retirement portfolio with an advisor. &nbsp;I&#39;m just comparing it to people who actually do their own investing. &nbsp;I&#39;m at 8.6% over the last 10 years having done nothing to that portfolio other than just consistently contribute and let them invest it. &nbsp;Usually ~80/20. &nbsp; I have made a lot more money on other investments, but those took more work/risk etc. &nbsp;</p>

[californiagrown]

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<p>
Yeah, I have a retirement portfolio with an advisor. &nbsp;I&#39;m just comparing it to people who actually do their own investing. &nbsp;I&#39;m at 8.6% over the last 10 years having done nothing to that portfolio other than just consistently contribute and let them invest it. &nbsp;Usually ~80/20. &nbsp; I have made a lot more money on other investments, but those took more work/risk etc. &nbsp;</p>
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No one beats the market is the general platitude.&nbsp; With that in mind, i personally do not see the use in having a financial advisor whom you pay 1% annually to for them to do the EXACT same thing as the robo-investing retirement products that etrade/ameritrade/vanguard/etc all have easily available for a fraction of the cost.&nbsp; IMO, financial advisors should be used on an as-needed basis when big financial decisions needs to be made and you want to run it by an expert (buying a house or RE, inheritance, setting up trusts/every 5 years to learn about anything thats changed in the world of finance).</p>

[californiagrown]

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I pay .02% for my advisor. Good to have an extra set of eyes on it. I also meet quarterly with a CPA who is in contact with my advisor. CPA is expensive, but pays for herself.

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If youre paying 0.02% annual fees to your financial advsior all i have to ask is who is this non-profit?&nbsp; Or, are you a billionaire?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
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FWIW, automated investing through vanguard (notoriously low fees) is something like 0.15%.&nbsp; So you are either getting one helluva good deal, or something is fishy.</p>

[Name Redacted]

No i meant .2%

[4matic]

My one hundred percent bond portfolio yields eight percent and pays my income needs with a surplus and a big raise last year. With dividend yields so low relying upon historical growth measures for SPY just doesn’t make sense. If stocks drop a lot I’ll re-allocate. If bonds do well I’ll sell some and raise cash. I remember the fifteen year period of zero return in SPY and it wasn’t that long ago.

[4matic]

Also, if the doge commission does cut spending and eliminates thousands of jobs that will hurt growth and potentially help bond rates. What that does to stocks I couldn’t speculate

[4matic]

Berkshire would be a good diversifier against a bond portfolio. With all that cash who would you rather have time the market?

[climberevan]

Shuttering USAID is going to put thousands of humanitarian workers out of work in the next few weeks. My SO is one of them. Multiply this across the many organizations that depend on federal funding from the other stuff that is in the cross hairs and this has to have an impact on the overall economy....

[4matic]

Equity risk premium is lowest in 22 years:

https://www.ft.com/content/f8b6dbb5-...a-e7c9b2925bb3

That means the difference between the two, a measure of the so-called equity risk premium, or the extra compensation to an investor for the risk of owning stocks, has fallen into negative territory and reached a level last seen in 2002

[4matic]

Shuttering USAID is going to put thousands of humanitarian workers out of work in the next few weeks. My SO is one of them. Multiply this across the many organizations that depend on federal funding from the other stuff that is in the cross hairs and this has to have an impact on the overall economy....

Incremental job growth has been all government the last few years and these are high paying jobs:

Employment growth in government accelerated in 2023 (+709,000), exceeding growth in 2022 (+299,000) and 2021 (+392,000). Government employment recovered to its prepandemic level in September 2023, surpassing its February 2020 level by 209,000 in December 2023.

[The Nuclear Option]

My one hundred percent bond portfolio yields eight percent and pays my income needs with a surplus and a big raise last year. With dividend yields so low relying upon historical growth measures for SPY just doesn’t make sense. If stocks drop a lot I’ll re-allocate. If bonds do well I’ll sell some and raise cash. I remember the fifteen year period of zero return in SPY and it wasn’t that long ago.

What bonds are paying 8% Junk?

[4matic]

Delete

[4matic]

What bonds are paying 8% Junk?

Blended portfolio:

BINC
PDI
HYS
PAXS

[Bunion 2020]

^^^ No TIPs?

[4matic]

[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji638][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]];[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]]^^^ No TIPs?

Don’t need them with normalized rates. I sold my real return indexed fund PASAX last October and switched into BINC and HYS.

Inflation was transitory and the risk is back to deflation imo.

[406]

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Donald Trump is not asking the Federal Reserve to lower its short-term interest rates, but what he and the president do want is to bring down longer-term borrowing costs via 10-year Treasury yields."

How do they do that? No details in the article. I thought rate was set by what the big buyers are willing to pay at auction? Are they planning to invert the yield curve intentionally, basically admitting they plan to trash the economy?

[MultiVerse]

They can try and talk it into happening but they can't make it happen. Macroeconomics is the apex predator of ill-advised regimes

1No TIPs?

TIPS currently have a real yield greater than 2-percent which means an investment would provide a risk free return that exceeds U.S. inflation by that amount for more than for 10 years. That's good for risk free

Incremental job growth has been all government the last few years

Nearly all job growth came from foreign-born workers in the last 3yrs

[4matic]

It’s a worthy goal. Any lower trajectory in funding needs will help longer treasury rates.

I don’t believe in “smooth landing” either. The Fed wants shelter costs down and need a soft year in housing to accomplish that.

Housing metrics are rapidly deteriorating and I expect rents to continue soft for a while.

I’d really like to see a dent in section eight housing funds. No more high income zip code support would help.

[jono]

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Donald Trump is not asking the Federal Reserve to lower its short-term interest rates, but what he and the president do want is to bring down longer-term borrowing costs via 10-year Treasury yields."

How do they do that? No details in the article. I thought rate was set by what the big buyers are willing to pay at auction? Are they planning to invert the yield curve intentionally, basically admitting they plan to trash the economy?

Supply and demand. They can change the number of long bonds in circulation. And/or the number relative to shorter ones, since those compete to an extent. Higher prices mean lower yields, so sell less 10Y to bring down long rates to re-inflate Trump's RE holdings/help him refi at lower rates.

The Fed acted to tweak the curve this way during the Obama administration when it wasn't setting up to their liking. And they should have done the opposite in 2020 to keep housing from going nuts, but they faced the same guy.

[MultiVerse]

The effects of yield-curve management are limited given high deficits and elevated inflation. Add to that the threat of tariffs and worse the threat of a capital wars if foreign central banks start selling treasuries in response to tariffs. Treasury and the Fed might be able to make some short-term impact but it is mostly contingent on a host of other policy consequences.