Is the stock market going to tank?

[m2711c]

buffet is an old man, what happens to brk price when he kicks?

[dan_pdx]

buffet is an old man, what happens to brk price when he kicks?

I think there's going to be a correction and then it will recover. I forget who he tapped to take over, but I'm sure they'll follow in his footsteps in terms of sober investing

[yeahman]

^^^ I think you are correct however reality could set in and be a lot more painful than merely stagnant.

True. And even though it would hurt me I'd love to see him take the blame for it.

[Bunion 2020]

Yep. But he will never accept responsibility for anything perceived as negative.

BTW, did you get a BS pass this season?

[dschane]

True. And even though it would hurt me I'd love to see him take the blame for it.

Too much teflon. The economy and market could tumble 18 months after he takes office and despite having both the House and Senate, no one except for those who didn't vote for him (and perhaps a few million vacillators who voted for him) would blame him.

[MultiVerse]

lol, is this inflation adjusted?

[Hopeless Sinner]

Rebalanced today - back to 70% stocks/30% bonds, I'll miss some gains, but wanted to steer clear of the correction as soon as the inevitable dysfunction begins to effect peoples psychology.

I've been slowly selling APPL, the only asset in my YOLO account and replacing it with a broad US stock index fund.

[406]

Anyone have experience with a "cash balance plan"? Wife's company is giving her option to join. I'm not a fan of this part:

"Because the Cash Balance Plan is a defined benefit plan, you will not be able to direct
the investment of your Account. The Cash Balance Plan’s assets will be invested as
permitted and determined by the Trustees or an independent investment manager
selected by the Trustees for the Plan."

Can't find any info on fees.

Also tend to think we are covered for 60+ with our 401k's and should put additional savings into stuff we can access penalty free prior to 60, despite paying income tax now.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Anyone have experience with a "cash balance plan"? Wife's company is giving her option to join. I'm not a fan of this part:

"Because the Cash Balance Plan is a defined benefit plan, you will not be able to direct
the investment of your Account. The Cash Balance Plan’s assets will be invested as
permitted and determined by the Trustees or an independent investment manager
selected by the Trustees for the Plan."

Can't find any info on fees.

Also tend to think we are covered for 60+ with our 401k's and should put additional savings into stuff we can access penalty free prior to 60, despite paying income tax now.

That sounds like it’s operating like a pension fund? That’s how teacher, firefighters, etc. retirement plans work.

Whether it’s worth it would depend on what kind of guaranteed payout you’d be getting (and how risk averse you are). Individuals can get the same guaranteed payouts by buying annuities, but my understanding is there’s usually a big financial hit with those.

[406]

Kind of, but all contributions are from her pay, as far as I can tell no employer matching like a 401k. But what i read online "Cash balance plans do not allow employee deferrals". I'm not seeing any info about guaranteed payout, but there is something about it doesn't go negative.

She got me the investment mix:


I'm not impressed.

[Danno]

Anyone have experience with a "cash balance plan"? Wife's company is giving her option to join. I'm not a fan of this part:

"Because the Cash Balance Plan is a defined benefit plan, you will not be able to direct
the investment of your Account. The Cash Balance Plan’s assets will be invested as
permitted and determined by the Trustees or an independent investment manager
selected by the Trustees for the Plan."

Can't find any info on fees.

Also tend to think we are covered for 60+ with our 401k's and should put additional savings into stuff we can access penalty free prior to 60, despite paying income tax now.

I know nothing about this plan or its name, but "defined benefit" means you don't worry about fees or where to direct the money, because it doesn't matter, your benefit is defined in the plan documents. As in, a pension.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Kind of, but all contributions are from her pay, as far as I can tell no employer matching like a 401k. I'm not seeing any info about guaranteed payout, but there is something about it doesn't go negative. She got me the investment mix:


I'm not impressed.

Guaranteed ‘not to go negative’ is definitely not what I think of when I hear defined benefit plan. Defined benefit is typically ‘we’ll pay x% of you salary until you die, and have some adjustment for inflation’.

If it’s not that kind of defined benefit then I’d be pretty wary about it.

Not an expert, but seeing only 12% in US stocks seems quite bad to me

[Danno]

Guaranteed ‘not to go negative’ is definitely not what I think of when I hear defined benefit plan. Defined benefit is typically ‘we’ll pay x% of you salary until you die, and have some adjustment for inflation’.

If it’s not that kind of defined benefit then I’d be pretty wary about it.

Not an expert, but seeing only 12% in US stocks seems quite bad to me

yeah, something seems weird.

What is the benefit? That should be spelled out pretty clearly in a defined benefit plan.

[Iowagriz]

My old company had a defined benefit pension (phased out) and then a cash balance plan. I don't remember contributing anything to it. Upon retirement, I cash the remainder of both and rolled them into a Traditional IRA to avoid the immediate penalty and tax hit (i think that was the reason). They were conservatively invested by the company. I'm 60/40 in Bonds/Large Cap and have now gained 20% in approx 3yrs.

From what I understand, it seems odd for her to have to contribute. Do they also have a Traditional 401k to offer? Is this in lieu of that?

[406]

yeah, I'm confused. In addition to 401k. "If you are looking for additional retirement plan deferral capabilities greater than your 401(k) savings you may want to consider the new Cash Balance Plan implemented by XXX"

"The minimum contribution amount is $20K annually and is a commitment until December 31, 2026. Maximum contributions allowed are based on age and listed in the table in the attached FAQ document." And looks like she can not change contribution amount for 3 years.

"What is my Plan benefit?
Your benefit under the Plan will be the value of your account at the time of distribution,
which is designed to be equal to your contributions plus actual investment earnings,
subject to a cumulative minimum floor return of 0% (as discussed below)."


Maybe if she worked full time(double income) and we didn't have three kids (deductions) I could see the advantage of getting into a lower tax bracket...but I'm not seeing saving a little on taxes being worth locking in at most 5% return for the next 20 years.

[Hopeless Sinner]

yeah, I'm confused. In addition to 401k. "If you are looking for additional retirement plan deferral capabilities greater than your 401(k) savings you may want to consider the new Cash Balance Plan implemented by XXX"

"The minimum contribution amount is $20K annually and is a commitment until December 31, 2026. Maximum contributions allowed are based on age and listed in the table in the attached FAQ document." And looks like she can not change contribution amount for 3 years.

"What is my Plan benefit?
Your benefit under the Plan will be the value of your account at the time of distribution,
which is designed to be equal to your contributions plus actual investment earnings,
subject to a cumulative minimum floor return of 0% (as discussed below)."


Maybe if she worked full time(double income) and we didn't have three kids (deductions) I could see the advantage of getting into a lower tax bracket...but I'm not seeing saving a little on taxes being worth locking in at most 5% return for the next 20 years.

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com...sion-plan.html

[406]

Thanks, that is a good article. Seems her plan only guarantees rate of return will not go below 0%, if it was higher might be worth doing or if we wanted to reduce income tax.

[liv2ski]

[4matic]

No, it’s only the leech class. Boomers and legacy asset holders, that have created nothing the last [emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]]] years, that get hurt by higher for longer rates. Inflation helps asset holders. Deflation helps the working class.

That said, Powell will cave eventually. He’s an asset pumper just like the last [emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]] years of Fed chairs.

[J. Barron DeJong]

No, it’s only the leech class. Boomers and legacy asset holders, that have created nothing the last [emoji637][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]] years, that get hurt by higher for longer rates. Inflation helps asset holders. Deflation helps the working class.

Deflation helps the working class?

Like during the Great Depression, or are we picturing some fantasy version of deflation that doesn’t come along with mass unemployment?

[4matic]

[emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]]]]Deflation helps the working class?

Like during the Great Depression, or are we picturing some fantasy version of deflation that doesn’t come along with mass unemployment?

Depression created the middle class of the fifties and sixties. Stay at home mom’s. Single income could afford house and car.

[4matic]

I don’t know what all this emoji stuff is but sorry.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Depression created the middle class of the [emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]’s and [emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]]’s. Stay at home mom’s. Single income could afford house and car.

Hard to parse that with the emojis, but I’m pretty sure that economic history is wrong, though I’d like to read an argument that says the Depression itself was what created the middle class.

Who were these stay at home Mom’s who could suddenly afford a car in an economy where a quarter of workers were unemployed?

[4matic]

Just like when Volker forced the worst recession since the Great Depression he set up decades of prosperity only to be ruined by asset pumping monetarists: Reagan, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell. Every one of them a loose money asset pumper. Throw tax cuts on top and the future was stolen from future generations.

[4matic]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji637][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji639][emoji639][emoji637][emoji640]]Hard to parse that with the emojis, but I’m pretty sure that economic history is wrong, though I’d like to read an argument that says the Depression itself was what created the middle class.

Who were these stay at home Mom’s who could suddenly afford a car in an economy where a quarter of workers were unemployed?

Fifties and sixties. Post war post depression.