Real Estate Crash thread

[XXX-er]

New as in new construction

missed the "new" bit but I think once they get going they gotta keep building

around here prices have cooled by maybe 15% from the last peak

figures i have seen say Canada is crazier than USA

[singlesline]

To clarify, LA is earmarking these "affordable units" for folks making less than $100k/year. Unclear what the actual cost of the units are, but it appears that the boom is mostly rental apartments, not owned apartments or houses. That said, it does show that developers will take a volume play if it makes as much sense as a luxury/high end play.

That seems OK to me. Housing is housing and more availability of new rentals will lower pressure on the stock of condos/houses for sale.

Public Housing Policy - should not support second homes and STRs.

I think more places, especially mountain towns need tax policy like Maui county (not necessarily these exact rates, but conceptually)


Owner-occupied and long-term leases get a discount.
Second homes pay a premium.
STRs pay a fuckton more.
Rates scale up for home values beyond the range of "normal" housing in the local market.

Certainly won't solve everything, but if you've got a $1m home, and it costs you an extra $9500 a year to STR it, maybe that's enough to convince you to put it back on the long term lease market for residents.
Maybe not on your ski-in/ski-out condo that you visit for a few weeks a year and get lucrative AirBNB rates the rest of the time...but maybe yes on that 3br house in town owned purely as an investment property by another resident.


edit: I'd also suggest a feature where once a tenant has been in a place for more than a year, the landlord gets to pay the Owner-occupied rate. Encourages stability and tenant-friendly behavior.

[Conundrum]

This thread is no place for sensical behaviors.

[Red7]

I don't understand why, as a buyer, you won't use a REA. It doesn't cost you anything, and it makes your life a lot easier.

That being said, the seller's agent is definitely out of bounds to say no to any potential buyer like that.

They actually do cost you something. I've bought our last 5 homes representing myself as the buyers agent. I've never had a listing agent bat an eye and in each case, we've reduced our offer price an additional 2.5-3% since the buyer won't have to pay that commission. Technically, you can't get paid a commission if you aren't licensed but you can get a price reduction or have them pay 3% in other costs. As easy as it is to research properties today, it would have to be a very complex property before I see any benefit in having a buyers agent. Hell, I've corrected several listing agents mistakes in a few transactions as not all Realtors are that good or have adequate math skills.

[Red7]

I don't think the banks are in as much trouble as the individual investors who acquired commercial properties at 3% interest on a 5 year term in 2020. The banks use Debt Service Coverage Ratios nowadays to assess creditworthiness and most of these loans originated 3-4 years ago are not going to be financeable. Maybe some good opportunities for cash buyers, I guess we'll find out pretty quick.

That was my concern when I bought my commercial building for one of my businesses in 2022. I got a 5 year loan at 3.5% and calculated an amortization schedule to figure out what I'd have to pay each month to pay off the building in 5 years. Now one of my businesses pays that amount in rent to the business that holds the property so that it will be paid off by 2027 when my son turns 18 and takes over the business ('ll continue to collect rent from him while skiing everyday). I hope others were looking 5 years down the road when they locked in their low rates as those low rates allowed for massive paying down of principal vs renting the same building.

[XXX-er]

" There are 300 RE agents in this town and I trust a handful of them to write a contract "

of course I was quoting a lawyer bud and we don't like them either

[californiagrown]

That seems OK to me. Housing is housing and more availability of new rentals will lower pressure on the stock of condos/houses for sale.



I think more places, especially mountain towns need tax policy like Maui county (not necessarily these exact rates, but conceptually)


Owner-occupied and long-term leases get a discount.
Second homes pay a premium.
STRs pay a fuckton more.
Rates scale up for home values beyond the range of "normal" housing in the local market.

Certainly won't solve everything, but if you've got a $1m home, and it costs you an extra $9500 a year to STR it, maybe that's enough to convince you to put it back on the long term lease market for residents.
Maybe not on your ski-in/ski-out condo that you visit for a few weeks a year and get lucrative AirBNB rates the rest of the time...but maybe yes on that 3br house in town owned purely as an investment property by another resident.


edit: I'd also suggest a feature where once a tenant has been in a place for more than a year, the landlord gets to pay the Owner-occupied rate. Encourages stability and tenant-friendly behavior.

I like it!

[fastfred]

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...722-story.html

Im all high and shit doing myown research and let me tell you I have answers and I know

[byates1]

That was my concern when I bought my commercial building for one of my businesses in 2022. I got a 5 year loan at 3.5% and calculated an amortization schedule to figure out what I'd have to pay each month to pay off the building in 5 years. Now one of my businesses pays that amount in rent to the business that holds the property so that it will be paid off by 2027 when my son turns 18 and takes over the business ('ll continue to collect rent from him while skiing everyday). I hope others were looking 5 years down the road when they locked in their low rates as those low rates allowed for massive paying down of principal vs renting the same building.

This guy.

[Toadman]

Builders still moving dirt for 100’s of new home lots around here.

Same here. The building is crazy here in Bend. But all that building supposedly has turned Bend into a buyer's market.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...nd_OR/overview

[Core Shot]

Wow. That Maui tax chart is brutal.
I get the tax the rich. And try to stop STR std insanity. But wow. Then again it’s a small island with too many tourists. Wish I had bought a place in haiku or paia years ago. But then again I didn’t have the money.
How do they treat ohanas?
To me that’s the real worker solution. Give tax breaks to people that build long term affordable apartments on their extra land.

PS. House in Maui. Over three million. Hold in LLC as a long term rental to yourself. Save six bucks in taxes. Don’t think it isn’t happening.

[Core Shot]

This guy.

I’ve never had a commercial mortgage that didn’t float. Other than Sba 504

[Foggy_Goggles]

I try and only speak to what I know. I used to live in a pretty quite down valley neighborhood 10 minutes from the grocery and 20 minutes to the ski area. Now I live in a neighborhood with many STRs, second homes, remote workers and retirees.

These folks pay lip service to "affordable housing" until it is proposed in their backyard. Then the racist, classist, living in fear, world is on fire bullshit comes out. They go to the meetings and talk about their "quality of life" and "had they known when they bought their house". Chance is scary and these people don't want it. Anything that doesn't walk or talk I them is perceived as a threat.

Their Shangri-La is white service workers and government employees emerging from somewhere to meet their needs and then going back behind the curtain. So we get taxes and fees for affordable housing and then get housing that really isn't affordable. The average teachers salary in Colorado is about $55K. That don't buy shit.

Collectively, we get exactly what we want. We just don't speak to what that is. Those pulling the strings want the restaurants open 7 days a week, service employees that don't act like they hate them and public policy that perpetuates business as usual.

Its Friday, do you want to go get a beer at 2 after our bike ride? Next week, yeah that's the 4th, I ain't doing shit next week.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I try and only speak to what I know. I used to live in a pretty quite down valley neighborhood 10 minutes from the grocery and 20 minutes to the ski area. Now I live in a neighborhood with many STRs, second homes, remote workers and retirees.

These folks pay lip service to "affordable housing" until it is proposed in their backyard. Then the racist, classist, living in fear, world is on fire bullshit comes out. They go to the meetings and talk about their "quality of life" and "had they known when they bought their house". Chance is scary and these people don't want it. Anything that doesn't walk or talk I them is perceived as a threat.

Their Shangri-La is white service workers and government employees emerging from somewhere to meet their needs and then going back behind the curtain. So we get taxes and fees for affordable housing and then get housing that really isn't affordable. The average teachers salary in Colorado is about $55K. That don't buy shit.

Collectively, we get exactly what we want. We just don't speak to what that is. Those pulling the strings want the restaurants open 7 days a week, service employees that don't act like they hate them and public policy that perpetuates business as usual.

Its Friday, do you want to go get a beer at 2 after our bike ride? Next week, yeah that's the 4th, I ain't doing shit next week.

[singlesline]

Wow. That Maui tax chart is brutal.

Is it though? Hawaii property tax rates are some of the lowest in the nation.

Owner occupied rate is a fraction of of the rates where I am in Montana. On a $1m assessed value you're talking $7400 in taxes vs $1800 in Maui. Long term rental it is still only $3000 and second home is $5870 which by my math is still a lot less than MT.

Unless you STR it, you need to be non-resident with well over $3m home value before you even start to get close to a MT tax bill. If you occupy it, you will max out at like half the equivalent MT bill.

[skaredshtles]

Is it though? Hawaii property tax rates are some of the lowest in the nation.

Owner occupied rate is a fraction of of the rates where I am in Montana. On a $1m assessed value you're talking $7400 in taxes vs $1800 in Maui. Long term rental it is still only $3000 and second home is $5870 which by my math is still a lot less than MT.

Unless you STR it, you need to be non-resident with well over $3m home value before you even start to get close to a MT tax bill. If you occupy it, you will always be at like half the equivalent MT bill.

Maths are not CS's strong suit.

[Danno]

Maths are not CS's strong suit.

brains are not CS's strong suit

[Bunion 2020]

Is it though? Hawaii property tax rates are some of the lowest in the nation.

Owner occupied rate is a fraction of of the rates where I am in Montana. On a $1m assessed value you're talking $7400 in taxes vs $1800 in Maui. Long term rental it is still only $3000 and second home is $5870 which by my math is still a lot less than MT.

Unless you STR it, you need to be non-resident with well over $3m home value before you even start to get close to a MT tax bill. If you occupy it, you will max out at like half the equivalent MT bill.

Notice in the current MT Governors race all the ads against Ryan Busse are about his 2A history and nothing about GGs plans for his next term or how badly he and the GOP controlled state legislature totally fucked us on property taxes.

[skaredshtles]

Notice in the current MT Governors race all the ads against Ryan Busse are about his 2A history and nothing about GGs plans for his next term or how badly he and the GOP controlled state legislature totally fucked us on property taxes.

GOP gov, GOP state legislature... SURELY your property taxes went way down, right??

[Core Shot]

Is it though? Hawaii property tax rates are some of the lowest in the nation.

Owner occupied rate is a fraction of of the rates where I am in Montana. On a $1m assessed value you're talking $7400 in taxes vs $1800 in Maui. Long term rental it is still only $3000 and second home is $5870 which by my math is still a lot less than MT.

Unless you STR it, you need to be non-resident with well over $3m home value before you even start to get close to a MT tax bill. If you occupy it, you will max out at like half the equivalent MT bill.

After being savaged. I have no desire to sus the relative tax rates.

Just shocked that Maui tax is that cheap on a one million dollar property.

Carry On kicking me in the balls

PS. wtf Montana? Are you trying to beat Long Island?

[skaredshtles]

Wait until you see how much they pay in TX for property taxes.

[goldenboy]

So, what do you guys think about STRs being taxed so much more heavily than non owner occupied second homes in that Maui spreadsheet? Yes, STRs cause plenty of problems, but at least the lights are on and renters go out to dinner and take surfing lessons and cleaners have a job to do, along with property managers. There are some economic benefits. But is a second home that sits empty 11 months a year better?

[Buster Highmen]

Is it the intent for high STR taxes to discourage investors from consuming inventory?

Across mountain towns, some responsibility of high home costs can be attributed to STRs and real estate investors, right?

I don't have a grasp of all the dynamics of high COLA in mountain towns, but I wonder if those STR investors are really dissuaded from investing due to taxes.

[byates1]

Str's worked too well. I was early on Airbnb. I rented my cabin in the Adirondacks for 6 years part time in the summer, slept in a tent, or van. Paid the fixed costs of my place for 8 years.

Buying multiple places just to run micro hotels is a great business. But it has drawn the ire of all these days. I think the present and looming regs are going to dissuade ppl from doing it.

Renting to locals sounds all wonderful until they are smoking penniless drunk scumbags.

Goldenboy had a point, those Airbnb ppl literally spend money everywhere in their stay.

I charged 35$ for cleaning and did it myself, dinging ppl for huge cleaning fees is a dick move. Almost everyone left my place spotless. I also only rented to small groups, usually 2, 4 max. No 12 jersey bros and 10 handles of Jack in my place thx.

[Foggy_Goggles]

High COLA Tourist Economies were not/will struggle w/o STRs. They compete with traditional lodging properties (hotels/motels/condo-tels) which pay much higher property tax rates, utilities, income tax and so on. Hotels are activity condominiumizing to get in on the greasy grift.

But no, it is unlikely that you can tax them out of existence. And no, there consumption of services staffed by employees who can't afford housing leading to the owners of said business lobbying for subsidized housing so they can continue to pay a sub-living wage is a circular dog shit argument.

The higher tax would just create more money for the local government to use to justify their own existence. I just drove though town. Its gridlock to to get in or out of the grocery store. We need less peak season tourists, more real infrastructure and a conversation about raising the wage scale.