Real Estate Crash thread

[BCMtnHound]

I am in somewhat the same boat.

House basically paid off, thinking of moving to a little land. However, everything below us in price is a complete shit hole and everything above is 7.5%.

Can't really stomach either.

So I will sit and feel lucky and smug in my foresight to be born at the right time. (Well that and smart enough to have ignored everyone that told me the market was overpriced in 2003- and there were a lot of them).

Same same. Still waiting for that medium sized home on a hectare to come on the market, that doesn’t also need $100k in repairs or upgrades.

As soon as I had the down payment and could commit to 5yrs in one location, I bought. Peak market in 2008 (just before the crash), at 5+% in the first term (fixed). No tears then, or now.

[Bunion 2020]

Another day of visiting job sites.

Ran into the owners of a project that just launched. Wife was telling me how "crucial" sustainability is to her.

This is a 12K sq ft home with an 8K sq ft gear barn and a couple of guest homes plopped onto 1/2 a section of what was once prime elk habitat and probably the random Grizz.

I should be in the world series of Poker. I nodded sagely and said, "that's good".

[concretejungle]

Another day of visiting job sites.

Ran into the owners of a project that just launched. Wife was telling me how "crucial" sustainability is to her.

This is a 12K sq ft home with an 8K sq ft gear barn and a couple of guest homes plopped onto 1/2 a section of what was once prime elk habitat and probably the random Grizz.

I should be in the world series of Poker. I nodded sagely and said, "that's good".

Jfhc. This town is such a clown show. We just got back from vacation a few weeks ago. In the two weeks there I didn't honk at all, five minutes back in this shit hole before I had to honk at some clown. My partner and I remarked on how nice it was to be in a town that seemed like an actual place and not some faux mountain chic simulacra. If we could afford to move we'd be gone.

[Bunion 2020]

Well this was 40 miles south of Bozeman, but yeah I hear ya and feel the pain. Still looking for the next chapter as well, I see the light at the end of the tunnel around 18 months away.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Surely many boomers have loans paid off and can pay cash as they downsize ?
No?

Paying all cash on a home might not be a financially good decision for some people.

[byates1]

Another day of visiting job sites.

Ran into the owners of a project that just launched. Wife was telling me how "crucial" sustainability is to her.

This is a 12K sq ft home with an 8K sq ft gear barn and a couple of guest homes plopped onto 1/2 a section of what was once prime elk habitat and probably the random Grizz.

I should be in the world series of Poker. I nodded sagely and said, "that's good".

Wow. Just wow.

[XXX-er]

Same same. Still waiting for that medium sized home on a hectare to come on the market, that doesn’t also need $100k in repairs or upgrades.

As soon as I had the down payment and could commit to 5yrs in one location, I bought. Peak market in 2008 (just before the crash), at 5+% in the first term (fixed). No tears then, or now.

yeah I don't get to spend money but I get to spend vicariously thru my sons who both bought in the last year a rural and a downtown town house, which couldn't be more different but the money spends the same. So I get to hear about them spending a lot of money on upgrades ( furnaces/ plumbing ) to an older property which is the only way they could get in but they both counted on spending the money

also I been throing a little inheritance their way without actualy dying

conversations start " so hows the money pit ? "

[east or bust]

Another day of visiting job sites.

Ran into the owners of a project that just launched. Wife was telling me how "crucial" sustainability is to her.

This is a 12K sq ft home with an 8K sq ft gear barn and a couple of guest homes plopped onto 1/2 a section of what was once prime elk habitat and probably the random Grizz.

I should be in the world series of Poker. I nodded sagely and said, "that's good".

Idk how you do it. Maybe my former years spent in the heavy civil industry has made me a bit cutthroat. I want to punch most of our clients in the face.

[lowsparkco]

No way you see a correction like 08-11 again, people actually have to qualify for their loans these days.

I envision a return to the mean so to speak. Location will matter again. The 2nd rate towns with meh school districts (or meh ski areas) will go back to meh prices, but the good stuff will continue to demand a premium just like it always has.

I agree.

I’ve heard several economists make the same statement, that everyone who was alive during the Great Recession will be scared of the “big one” but it’s highly unlikely that we’ll see such an event in our lifetimes.

Today’s market news from the Fed included the results of a survey they send out quarterly to the managers of lending institutions. Evidently credit is tightening. Similarly qualified applicants will receive smaller credit limits and some applicants will lose they ability to borrow.

[rideit]

Well, that is DEFINITELY an indicator that we are sliding down into a ‘2cnd world’ type of economy. Here in Perú, almost all house purchases are done with cash. More due to the fact that the economy and political situation is very unstable, the fear is that a bank could simply cease one fine day, and more than likely, any economic activity such as a mortgage would be in jeopardy. It has happened before.

[Bunion 2020]

Idk how you do it. Maybe my former years spent in the heavy civil industry has made me a bit cutthroat. I want to punch most of our clients in the face.

I try and remember that part of my service is to keep the rivers and streams as clean as I can. And I charge a lot.

[yeahman]

I try and remember that part of my service is to keep the rivers and streams as clean as I can. And I charge a lot.

That's laudible you can hold your tongue for the greater good. Not sure I could deal with the astounding obliviousness of somebody like that lady. Especially after seeing what's happened to this state the past few years.

[Foggy_Goggles]

It's common. I've seen the Tesla driving homeowner side eye the lifted pickups and dumpster full of drywall and lumber scraps.

We don't have pick up recycling around here and people don't want to pay me to haul it. I had a customer say that they'd care care of it. We filled a 12x12 room to the ceiling with cardboard.

You know what's "eco"?, not building a second home that sits mostly empty.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[RoooR]

Well, that is DEFINITELY an indicator that we are sliding down into a ‘2cnd world’ type of economy. Here in Perú, almost all house purchases are done with cash. More due to the fact that the economy and political situation is very unstable, the fear is that a bank could simply cease one fine day, and more than likely, any economic activity such as a mortgage would be in jeopardy. It has happened before.

Could the tightening of credit also be seen as a prudent response to past over-lending?

Might there be potential benefits to a tighter credit environment, such as avoiding over-leveraging and fostering more sustainable economic growth?

[singlesline]

Yep, I feel similar. Price regression in slow steps unless there's meaningful rate changes. I know in NH a lot of mountain properties are cutting prices back to semi sane levels. I want to say we still have 50-100k to go in the current rate environment, but that's entirely seat of the pants.

Or just plain flatlining (letting inflation do a silent price reduction), propped up by lack of inventory because people won't list their homes at a loss compared to what their neighbor sold for a year or two earlier...the desperate will still pay the higher prices on the homes that do come up, but inventory won't loosen until either more time passes or something changes.

Here things seem to be sitting on the market and eating price cuts, but they are all overpriced or crappy properties (or both). My neighbor's way overpriced townhome was just delisted after sitting on the market for 8 months with multiple big price cuts (all while earning them no rental income as they kicked their tenant out to sell).

Things that are desirable can apparently still sell quick, as I learned this week as I convinced myself to significantly increase my budget to make an offer on a house my wife and I both loved only to have them accept an offer from someone else within 2 days of listing. I thought the price was a bit too high, but there's just not many options out there and apparently I'm not the only one willing to pay.

[liv2ski]

Fuck, looking for a SFR up to $700k? Don't look in San Diego, as the selection is fuckin pathetic.

[californiagrown]

Could the tightening of credit also be seen as a prudent response to past over-lending?

Might there be potential benefits to a tighter credit environment, such as avoiding over-leveraging and fostering more sustainable economic growth?

Could be. From my perspective on the builder side, we are seeing a big slowdown as developers have a tougher time getting financing and making their projects pencil (caveat that i dont deal with SFR).

Its a tough condundrum- how do we slow down financial growth to sustainable levels, while at the same time speed up home building?

[californiagrown]

It's common. I've seen the Tesla driving homeowner side eye the lifted pickups and dumpster full of drywall and lumber scraps.

We don't have pick up recycling around here and people don't want to pay me to haul it. I had a customer say that they'd care care of it. We filled a 12x12 room to the ceiling with cardboard.

You know what's "eco"?, not building a second home that sits mostly empty.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Heh, My wife works in the non-profit environmental world and has been questioned about our choice of vehicle being a gas guzzler when we show up to an event in my 20yr old 4Runner. Nevermind that the person doing the critiquing has had 3-4 different(albeit very fuel efficient) new vehicles in that time period lol.

[summit]

What is the environmental footprint a new vehicle and disposing of an old one vs the relative difference between driving the two vehicles. Probably favors keeping the old.

[concretejungle]

What is the environmental footprint a new vehicle and disposing of an old one vs the relative difference between driving the two vehicles. Probably favors keeping the old.

It does. I'm not sure of the actual math/impact but I've looked it up fairly recently as I've been in the market for a new/used car. The current prices have kept me from buying one but the resource use favors keeping the old one, I have not checked on if it matters what kind of old car you drive.

[Mazderati]

Depends on the part of the environment and tech delta. LA air quality didn't improve because people kept limping along their smogless shitboxes.

[BFD]

What is the environmental footprint a new vehicle and disposing of an old one vs the relative difference between driving the two vehicles. Probably favors keeping the old.

Recycling vehicles has come a long way. I just did a quick search and Wikipedia says ". A lot of carbon dioxide is added into the atmosphere to make new cars. It is calculated that if someone traded in an 18 mpg clunker for a 22 mpg new car, it would take five and a half years of typical driving to offset the new car’s carbon footprint. That same number increases to eight or nine years for those who bought trucks." I have no idea how inclusive the study was of the mining and manufacturing end. Pretty cool European Union has an End of Life Directive for vehicles.
I am going through amoral dilemma now. Want to buy a hot tub. Do I really want to support the creation of another piece of trash that could be around forever? Would buying used be the better option?

[lowsparkco]

Could be. From my perspective on the builder side, we are seeing a big slowdown as developers have a tougher time getting financing and making their projects pencil (caveat that i dont deal with SFR).

Its a tough condundrum- how do we slow down financial growth to sustainable levels, while at the same time speed up home building?

I dealt with a couple of our biggest SFR spec home builders this month. I have a lot of experience from their side of the table having worked for builders for a substantial part of my career. It was really interesting to see how spoiled they have been by the last decade. One is extremely organized, very skeleton crew, conservative in land acquisition and the number of spec starts they have going, reasonable in pricing, and the other is the opposite. I would have concerns about how much longer builder #2 will be in business.

I think that's an underrated thing about recessionary economies... those that make it are stronger. A bit of a shuffle is normal and healthy.

I mostly "dirt pimp" for myself and close friends and family, so I have a lot of gratitude that it's not my only income stream right now. Reading this thread it's evident that we do a poor job as an industry in representing ourselves. TGR and mags often have *unique* perspectives that don't align with the general public, but I think this is a clear example of a vast difference between perception and reality. Only 26% of active brokers make $100k a year or more compared to 38% of the general public.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ome-in-the-us/

https://www.darinpersinger.com/blog/...t%20impossible.

[lowsparkco]

Recycling vehicles has come a long way. I just did a quick search and Wikipedia says ". A lot of carbon dioxide is added into the atmosphere to make new cars. It is calculated that if someone traded in an 18 mpg clunker for a 22 mpg new car, it would take five and a half years of typical driving to offset the new car’s carbon footprint. That same number increases to eight or nine years for those who bought trucks." I have no idea how inclusive the study was of the mining and manufacturing end. Pretty cool European Union has an End of Life Directive for vehicles.
I am going through amoral dilemma now. Want to buy a hot tub. Do I really want to support the creation of another piece of trash that could be around forever? Would buying used be the better option?

That's a fair dilemma. I think there's a lot to be said about being conscientious enough to care. I am sometimes critical of myself for deliberating over such things when most folks just pat themselves on the back that they can afford it.

I've considered building one myself out of stone and tile. It would be a cool project, probably wouldn't save you any money though. A friend of mine is a pool guy, they aren't rocket science to plumb that's for sure.

[Ted Striker]

TGR and mags often have *unique* perspectives that don't align with the general public, but I think this is a clear example of a vast difference between perception and reality. Only 26% of active brokers make $100k a year or more compared to 38% of the general public.

I know many agents with part-time jobs. The public/internet generally views this as "bored housewives", but it's actually the opposite. They're trying to be full time agents, but can't pay the bills.