Real Estate Crash thread

[californiagrown]

So is your contempt for others the fact that they’re not attempting to do what you did or they don’t have the skills to do what you did?

If they did skill up and get “better” jobs, who fills the gap in “low skill” work that’s now open? World needs ditch diggers too, y’know.

They want the juice, but dont want to squeeze.

[spanky]

Posting a link to WF, a business that should have been shut down years ago for the arguably criminal exploitation of account and mortgage holders is ironic at best.

Other than that, understood that loan calculators look at gross but throwing out gross income numbers for the sake of argument does not take into account taxes, hoa fees and other costs of living that substantially erode affordability.

Agreed, WF sucks. They’ve even sent me cease and desist letters. It was the first link in a Google search for “debt to income ratio”. Here’s a more “reputable” link: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-...ratio-en-1791/

Actually, DTI ratios take into account “all debts”… including taxes, hoa fees, insurance. It is actually a really strong measure of affordability.

[east or bust]

Ski towns are truly fucked. Didn't grasp the full reality until moving to one. Great for people who got in 'x' years ago, not attainable for anyone now, doesn't matter what job you have. That's why I don't love the whole "entitlement" argument, when a modern day desire was shared by someone 15 years ago, and now the possibility of fulfilling said desire is a non starter. But yea, life ain't fair.

Every one of our friends in town is getting by with some sort of hookup. Parents own a rental property, 2nd property, whatever. I'm just a beater who moved here recently and don't see being here long term given the circumstances, but it does suck to see people who grew up in Jackson with no hope of buying their own place. I guess such is life. Just going to enjoy the outdoor access while I can. Maybe move to Illinois and get a gravel bike.


Adiron, your numbers on take home in Idaho seem off BTW. When I was working at the site on a 110k salary my take home was $5200/month, which is realistic when accounting for health care and 401k contributions. Using that as a template, $150k gross would be about $7100 take home a month. So your 4-4.5k mortgage is well over 50% of net income. Maybe those numbers skew a bit if there are two earners instead of 1, but not by much.

[oldnew_guy]

It's income and wealth inequality.

For some reason it's hard for people to wrap their brains around that it hasn't gotten better since they were 22.

[AdironRider]

So is your contempt for others the fact that they’re not attempting to do what you did or they don’t have the skills to do what you did?

If they did skill up and get “better” jobs, who fills the gap in “low skill” work that’s now open? World needs ditch diggers too, y’know.

In some ways I'm saying they need to realize life is going to have challenges, and they should approach those challenges with more than just a shitty attitude or complaining.

[neckdeep]

Mountain towns are basically just the new form of sprawling, car centric American suburbs.

Yeah, maybe, if half the houses in the suburbs were STRs or sat empty 46 weeks out of the year. It's not like new people crowded out the old ones. They were displaced by money.

I'll say it again: these days the majority of home sales in ski towns are for cash. In Jackson it's nearly 70%. Modern ski towns aren't organic towns or suburbs; they are storage facilities for wealthy people's real estate portfolios.

[jackstraw]

Wouldn't know. But I do know they can move to a state with lower in-state costs, take a gap year and work to establish residency and then pay in-state. Not sure if that fits with their and their family's goals and post high school dreams.

Let me know when you come back to reality.

[fastfred]

Ski towns are truly fucked. Didn't grasp the full reality until moving to one. Great for people who got in 'x' years ago, not attainable for anyone now, doesn't matter what job you have. That's why I don't love the whole "entitlement" argument, when a modern day desire was shared by someone 15 years ago, and now the possibility of fulfilling said desire is a non starter. But yea, life ain't fair.

much.

I have been around alot of foreigners slash immigrants since I was a kid. The one take away from all of them is the American dream and the ability to achieve almost anything in this country. Versus the place they came from.

So the new ski town living is an hour coach day.

I got lucky and I know it. My life has been a fluke since I left home at age 17. Living in a ski town has many advantages and some major suck.

[Conundrum]

Let me know when you come back to reality.

You receive less than 50% financial support from a parent/guardian; have continuously resided in and maintained a bona fide domicile in Idaho for purposes other than education for at least 12 months prior to the term in which the you is applying for residency.

To establish residency under this statute the student must prove they have received less than 50% of their total financial support from one or more parent(s)/legal guardian(s) as well as proof that the student has been domiciled in Idaho for the 12 consecutive months prior to the semester residency is being sought after for purposes other than education.

If you have not been enrolled
If you have not been enrolled as a full-time student during the previous 12 months you must prove you have been domiciled in Idaho by either:

Providing proof that you have been employed full time in Idaho for those 12 months as well as filing an Idaho state tax return for the past 12 months.
OR

You move here, you work for 12 months and file taxes, then you apply for college as a resident. Then you go to school, get good grades (3.7+ gpa) and the school gives you a $2,500/year scholarship.

Expense Type Idaho Resident True Blue Promise Scholarship ($2,000/year for 4 years) Dean's Scholarship ($2,500/year for 4 years) Presidential Scholarship ($3,000/year for
4 years)
Tuition and Fees $8,364 $6,364 $5,864 $5,364
Books and Supplies $1,240 $1,240 $1,240 $1,240

$7,104/yr with good grades (or $47,680 less than in-state NH for a four year). Plus living expenses. Seems like an okay way to move west and go to school if that's what you're in to.

May not be reality for you or for students with mom and dad paying but it is a true reality for some kids and adults who want to go to a four year school but can't afford in-state where their from.


Back to my reality. I got pretty lucky with when my parents did the dirty to conceive me. Sometimes wished they could have done it a decade and a half sooner so I could have ski bummed in Tahoe in the 80s but I digress.

[neckdeep]

I have been around alot of foreigners slash immigrants since I was a kid. The one take away from all of them is the American dream and the ability to achieve almost anything in this country. Versus the place they came from.

Gee, I guess that's why most of the new workers in ski towns don't speak English, have a 6th grade education and their family will never go skiing.

[Mani_UT]

Ski towns are truly fucked. Didn't grasp the full reality until moving to one. Great for people who got in 'x' years ago, not attainable for anyone now, doesn't matter what job you have.

Ski towns are fucked but there is still a ton of amazing places for ski or else that are hardly expensive or filled in.
Just in Utah as so many here know the place, you could find a place around Logan for little $ and great skiing nearby. Nowadays so many employers let you commute only a few days a week, these places become possible and will eventually become desirable. People need to look at what's now possible vs. what used to be possible.
I know my dream place was cheap 20 years ago but I had no way to keep my job AND live there. That's why it was cheap. Options nowadays are limitless.

[fastfred]

Gee, I guess that's why most of the new workers in ski towns don't speak English, have a 6th grade education and their family will never go skiing.

I know one guy who has a ski in ski out condo part of the affordable housing unit snowboards and works in a ski shop part time

So I guess so

[Danno]

It's income and wealth inequality.

This thread depresses me, because there are way too many people who have adapted to this new fucked reality, and then defend it.

I have adapted to it, I'm a pretty lucky guy even if I don't own a home anymore and am kind of fucked financially (at least compared to where I used to be). But I sure as fuck wouldn't defend the new normal as perfectly fine, and argue that those who complain about it are entitled whiners.

[Danno]

Yeah, maybe, if half the houses in the suburbs were STRs or sat empty 46 weeks out of the year. It's not like new people crowded out the old ones. They were displaced by money.

I'll say it again: these days the majority of home sales in ski towns are for cash. In Jackson it's nearly 70%. Modern ski towns aren't organic towns or suburbs; they are storage facilities for wealthy people's real estate portfolios.

yep

[mcphee]

In some ways I'm saying they need to realize life is going to have challenges, and they should approach those challenges with more than just a shitty attitude or complaining.

since the discussion has already been broached only certain people should get to live in the most desirable places in this country, maybe these new gatekeeper’s kids should be the cleaners, store clerks, bus drivers, cooks, servers, bartenders, hairdressers/barbers, etc…low skill is menial, mundane, and repetitive. Perfect for kids 5-17. Much easier than letting software do most of your work.

or how about the “perpetually aggrieved about people who are beneath them and their desire to breath” commute 1-2 hrs each way to their services, dining, and entertainment.

Sacrifices and all that jazz. L

[californiagrown]

But I sure as fuck wouldn't defend the new normal as perfectly fine, and argue that those who complain about it are entitled whiners.

I think there would be a lot more sympathy if people werent complaining about how unfair/difficult it was to try and live a comfortable family life in some of the most affluent and desirable areas of the world while working universally low/medium paying jobs all so they can chase an adrenaline junky hobby. This problem (which is a problem all over) gets a lot more sympathy when the folks complaining about the wealth/standard of living gap are living in more "normal" living situations or dont have much easier living situations to fall back on.

[Danno]

I think there would be a lot more sympathy if people werent complaining about how unfair/difficult it was to try and live a comfortable family life in some of the most affluent and desirable areas of the world while working universally low/medium paying jobs all so they can chase an adrenaline junky hobby. This problem (which is a problem all over) gets a lot more sympathy when the folks complaining about the wealth/standard of living gap are living in more "normal" living situations or dont have much easier living situations to fall back on.

What I see in this thread are strawmen, people (like you in this post) creating "complainers" who work at "universally low/medium paying jobs" just so they "can chase an adrenaline junky hobby." The people actually in this thread are just people working at jobs and trying to make it. I left a mountain town because I could not afford to buy a house there. I was working a professional govt job and was scraping by. To the extent I was "chas[ing] an adrenaline junky hobby", it was as a weekend warrior. I worked a FT M-F job. So sure, when you set up the worst strawman you can think of, and make it sound like they are trying to work 25 hours a week at a retail job so they can ski 100 days a year, it's easy to not have sympathy. And sure, those people may exist. But that's not who we're really talking about, we're talking about teachers and fireman and EMTs and accountants and town clerks and social workers and retail managers. People who have good enough middle income jobs that they should be able to get by at a reasonable level, living in the communities they work in.

[mud]

Kids in cages down at the border but lets cry for the suburban kids that want to live in condos at a resort town.

[John_B]

Well said Danno.

[yeahman]

Wells Fargo might suck but they have the best app and online banking interface of any bank I've found.

[californiagrown]

What I see in this thread are strawmen, people (like you in this post) creating "complainers" who work at "universally low/medium paying jobs" just so they "can chase an adrenaline junky hobby." The people actually in this thread are just people working at jobs and trying to make it. I left a mountain town because I could not afford to buy a house there. I was working a professional govt job and was scraping by. To the extent I was "chas[ing] an adrenaline junky hobby", it was as a weekend warrior. I worked a FT M-F job. So sure, when you set up the worst strawman you can think of, and make it sound like they are trying to work 25 hours a week at a retail job so they can ski 100 days a year, it's easy to not have sympathy. And sure, those people may exist. But that's not who we're really talking about, we're talking about teachers and fireman and EMTs and accountants and town clerks and social workers and retail managers. People who have good enough middle income jobs that they should be able to get by at a reasonable level, living in the communities they work in.

Wait, so why did you move to and live in that mountain/resort town in the first place? It wasnt for the easy access to your adrenaline junky hobby?

[east or bust]

Wait, so why did you move to and live in that mountain/resort town in the first place? It wasnt for the easy access to your adrenaline junky hobby?

In my case, no, not at all. It was to move in with my GF who grew up here. If I hadn't met her I'd be down in Tucson right now.

What does that even have to do with anything. You sound like an asshole.

[liv2ski]

What I see in this thread are strawmen, people (like you in this post) creating "complainers" who work at "universally low/medium paying jobs" just so they "can chase an adrenaline junky hobby." The people actually in this thread are just people working at jobs and trying to make it. I left a mountain town because I could not afford to buy a house there. I was working a professional govt job and was scraping by. To the extent I was "chas[ing] an adrenaline junky hobby", it was as a weekend warrior. I worked a FT M-F job. So sure, when you set up the worst strawman you can think of, and make it sound like they are trying to work 25 hours a week at a retail job so they can ski 100 days a year, it's easy to not have sympathy. And sure, those people may exist. But that's not who we're really talking about, we're talking about teachers and fireman and EMTs and accountants and town clerks and social workers and retail managers. People who have good enough middle income jobs that they should be able to get by at a reasonable level, living in the communities they work in.

Was drinking wine with a neighbor the other night and we were discussing my belief that the teachers, fireman, EMTs, accountants, town clerks, social workers, retail managers, etc, etc should be able to afford to live where they work and not have to drive 30-60 minutes to live in the hood. He looked at me like I was crazy and said that is how it has always been. "Never have lower income people been able to live in expensive areas" and you know, he is right. My single mom couldn't afford to have us live in the Hollywood Hills where many of my friends lived. No, we were down in the hood and we both worked damn hard to move up eventually.
Sure I am sad my kids will never be able to afford where we live, but hey, they didn't bust their asses to be a surgeon, pilot or top notch attorney either. (what most of my neighbors are) so ya, it sucks but that is how it has always been. Flame suit on.

[Supermoon]

Everyone talks about the “entitlement” of the poor for wanting livable wages and a life outside of work, but nobody talks about the entitlement of the 1% to assume people want to drive an hour each way to make their coffees, and teach their spoiled kids, and plow their roads. Why is nature and beauty only for the wealthy? Why are hobbies only okay if you’re exploiting other people and not for the exploited?

[mcphee]

Was drinking wine with a neighbor the other night and we were discussing my belief that the teachers, fireman, EMTs, accountants, town clerks, social workers, retail managers, etc, etc should be able to afford to live where they work and not have to drive 30-60 minutes to live in the hood. He looked at me like I was crazy and said that is how it has always been. "Never have lower income people been able to live in expensive areas" and you know, he is right. My single mom couldn't afford to have us live in the Hollywood Hills where many of my friends lived. No, we were down in the hood and we both worked damn hard to move up eventually.
Sure I am sad my kids will never be able to afford where we live, but hey, they didn't bust their asses to be a surgeon, pilot or top notch attorney either. (what most of my neighbors are) so ya, it sucks but that is how it has always been. Flame suit on.

Lol. You went from “people should live where they work” to “nope they shouldn’t-MY mom couldn’t afford to live near my friends” faster than you beat off on Tuesdays.

Grade A boomer douche