Real Estate Crash thread

[dunfree]

My guess is that they don’t mean car dependence for the people living there, but car dependence for the people that could move into the new units.

Allowing more dense building reduces the need for cars in the city, taken as a whole.

removing the garage doesn’t change (from YIMBY!)

The area is admittedly inhospitable for cyclists and pedestrians, though not impossible.

which to me translates to “car dependent, but you don’t have a car”

it’s only 8 units of infill

[J. Barron DeJong]

removing the garage doesn’t change (from YIMBY!)

which to me translates to “car dependent, but you don’t have a car”

it’s only 8 units of infill

Every proposed increase in building is ‘only’ something, so each individual rejection doesn’t have much cost, but it all ads up.

That area might not be good for walking/cycling now, but maybe it could if density was allowed to increase throughout the area? But each rejection eliminates that future possibility.

[californiagrown]

That area might not be good for walking/cycling now, but maybe it could if density was allowed to increase throughout the area?

This thought process is the basis for nearly all development code in play today.

[dan_pdx]

Every proposed increase in building is ‘only’ something, so each individual rejection doesn’t have much cost, but it all ads up.

That area might not be good for walking/cycling now, but maybe it could if density was allowed to increase throughout the area? But each rejection eliminates that future possibility.

Yeah, they're going from 21 to 29 units - a 40% increase. If all our multifamily housing increased capacity by 40%, it would solve the housing shortage.

[steeznutz]

There are upsides and downsides to having the ability to fix rates for 15/30 years.

Countries where you can only get ARMs probably aren't experiencing the same issue, but they, I suspect, will end up with a rash of forced moveouts and financial hardships looking like US 2009 when people see they monthly payments nearly double.

So, maybe avoid having a decade of near zero rates... but it's done. What now will solve a high-price low-inventory environment where current owners don't have enough profit motive to sell because they gotta live somewhere once they sell their 3% 30yr financed place?
Is the solution time... wait 15 years while the boomers die and their property sells? No no too long...
Could the solution be to ban mass commercial purchasing of SFHs? No Blackrock needs to make a profit!
Apparently the solution is to build ADUs in people's backyards and tear down SFHs to build 6 plexes? Yes. That is it. DO IT

Appraisal theory indicates that in times when the market can't provide viable/competitive financing, sellers will (I say may) do so. That is, a seller may offer a more attractive rate than the bank, but that comes with a higher price tag. Similarly, if anyone that has a 2.75% mortgage from 18-24 months ago that is assignable/transferrable (unlikely), that has value to a prospective buyer and the seller should account for that.

[Flyoverland Captive]

Listed my place on Friday at noon. Had a showing within hours, and an offer the next morning, full price, no inspection. Six more viewings Saturday, one more cash offer incoming, maybe more. Unreal.

[yeahman]

Are these offers from actual families that need a home? Or from investors?

[Flyoverland Captive]

Offer is from a family who want this neighborhood for the school, cash offer are penciling out a remodel and want to live here. Crazy.

[dan_pdx]

That is crazy. Are you in the Bend area? A buddy of mine who'd lived in Bend for 15 years just moved to Hood River, said that Bend was getting too crowded for him (his exact words were "Reno North"). Nice if you're selling a house though.

[Conundrum]

I'm sure the locals from Hood River are looking forward to being a refugee sanctuary.

[dan_pdx]

I'm sure the locals from Hood River are looking forward to being a refugee sanctuary.

No kidding. I see that lots in Mosier are going for $350k now, it's bonkers. I looked at buying this house with my sister in 2016, I wish we had: https://www.redfin.com/OR/Hood-River...home/105537021

[chicken feathers]

Listed my place on Friday at noon. Had a showing within hours, and an offer the next morning, full price, no inspection. Six more viewings Saturday, one more cash offer incoming, maybe more. Unreal.

Yep. Sold my place in Feb. Listed on a Friday, 12 showings over the weekend, 9 offers by Wednesday, several were cash. Closed 40k over asking. All offers were from families or individuals who wanna live here.

Problem is now I have to buy a place.

[XXX-er]

That is crazy. Are you in the Bend area? A buddy of mine who'd lived in Bend for 15 years just moved to Hood River, said that Bend was getting too crowded for him (his exact words were "Reno North"). Nice if you're selling a house though.

I met an auz / canadian couple that just sold out of Bend and moved Narth, it sounded like they did so good ( tripled ?) on the RE they they didn't seem too concerned about buying into the local RE market said they might have even paid a bit high but whatever

he asked me last summer if E-bikes were OK up here ... ya man

[Kevo]

Seems like the west coast market had a downturn March to December 2022, but has since started to very quickly move higher again. Anyone purchasing with a mortgage at todays prices and rates is getting bent over compared to people who bought anytime before 2022. If I were to purchase the house I bought in 2020 today, my mortgage payment would be almost 3x.

Shit is fucked.

[Conundrum]

Yes, everyone deserves to pay 1/3 the current going rate to move to a resort town and live out their western dreams of WFH while skiing the pow. Just be happy you're smarter or at least quicker than the average bear.

[schuss]

This is reminding me to get pre-approved as I think this is the year we buy a new england mountain outpost as we now have year round justification and the drive sucks.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Boom. Craft beer glasses full of tears. For better or worse. Plenty of those with their feet in the door and some cheddar are Mountains Please as fast as then can. If WFH sticks and the cities continue to be a dumpster fire, it ain't gonna change.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[byates1]

^ exact.

[yeahman]

My dad had the opposite experience selling his twin home in Maricopa, AZ. Market is dead there. Maybe the variable mortgage rate situation in Canada has stifled the snowbird market in AZ, at least in Maricopa, which is a weird place between Phoenix and Tucson. Anyway he started at 350k on the rec of his realtor, reduced it to 325, then 300. Very little interest. Finally got an offer of 225, his realtor was embarrassed to even tell him but he said sell the friggin place. He paid 175 five or six years ago.

[Conundrum]

Maybe people are realizing that trucking in water is going to be expensive.

[liv2ski]

Maybe people are realizing that trucking in water is going to be expensive.

Bingo.

[californiagrown]

House across from me sold in 3 days. Listed at $835k, sold for $1mil even. It's a not very nice 2000sf 3bd/2ba

[fastfred]

apt complexes and buildings are down 20% from their covid highs
whens the single family market going to catch up

[jackstraw]

House across from me sold in 3 days. Listed at $835k, sold for $1mil even. It's a not very nice 2000sf 3bd/2ba

What part of CA are you in?

[S_jenks]

Boom. Craft beer glasses full of tears. For better or worse. Plenty of those with their feet in the door and some cheddar are Mountains Please as fast as then can. If WFH sticks and the cities continue to be a dumpster fire, it ain't gonna change.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

I can tell you now that there are a plethora of companies across the US now who said “fuck it” and threw their doors open to WFH. Hell, our company already had one foot in the door pre-pandemic, so it was an easy jump for us and we’ve not looked back since (at least for the good-paying positions that generate value for the company.

For a lot of us, this is becoming a permanent change. Many others who fall short will still try and make remote work/ mountain town living work for them.

The paradigm has shifted.