Real Estate Crash thread

[ötzi]

I used to have a dirt-cheap Whitetail weekday pass for years, it's like 900 feet of vertical, 100% snowmaking, with a couple high-speed quads, 1:15 from my door. I'd go up and spin fast laps by myself for a couple hours and split around 11:00 when the schoolbuses started rolling in to the lots. It was aight. Afternoons and weekends were a hard no, though.

[lowsparkco]

It’s an interesting dilemma, with this kind of business nothing is ever easy, there is no “cheat code” for the younger generation.

Rates are up, value is down, so you really need to maximize that market factor, ideally buy distressed, buy a fixer, buy something that was overpriced and stigmatized.

By the time rates drop, it will be an issue if owners have equity. Dropping into the need for private mortgage insurance can definitely offset savings due to lower rates. I think it’s reasonable to be concerned about corrections when you’ve bought at high valuation and high rates. Absofuckinglutely.

[AdironRider]

AR, I thought my accountant told me a N/O/O property HAD to be depreciated? And if you do and there is some recapture for what you took, big deal. But I oddly agree with AS, just buy now and refi down the road if the price of the home works for you.

Most accountants will push for it as you can 1031 exchange proceeds from a rental, so in most cases it seems to make sense to depreciate. I could be wrong, but I don't think the IRS is going to complain you didn't take all the write offs available to you.

I also tend to agree that if the payment works you shouldn't forgo buying just because interest rates might drop in the future. Maybe they do maybe they don't but housing is a lot more than just an investment to most people but that is often not thought about, at least in most discussions.

[skaredshtles]

I'm glad to see so many who wouldn't mind living in DC.

FTS.

[fastfred]

Well the bottom line is to many people get caught up in the whole career family have to have nice things and look good as soon as you do that bullshit you end up w your own foot in your ass trying to give yourself a blow job every kid should just move to breckenridge at 19 and live in a tent worked out well for some kids will eat you alive women will steal from you then life is nothing but anti depressants and alcohol

[dunfree]

I'm glad to see so many who wouldn't mind living in DC.

FTS.

it’s got more culture than Denver

[skaredshtles]

it’s got more culture than Denver

Well, duh. That's not a very high bar, though, now is it?

[Danno]

it’s got more culture than Denver

I don't expect you'll get an argument from him -- or pretty much anyone who lives in Denver metro -- on that one!

[dunfree]

I don't expect you'll get an argument from him -- or pretty much anyone who lives in Denver metro -- on that one!

except for LA it’s a trade off

[altasnob]

People who are in their mid 30s now and who are wanting to start families after doing everything right (undergrad at a good school, grad school at a good school, grinding consulting/tech/law careers into top 10% income roles while finding a similarly driven and stable partner) don't have another 5 years to wait.

I used to have a similar pessimistic view of the housing market. But at least around here, there are not many who didn't make a boat load of money owning a home long term. A few minor bumps in the road. My friend who didn't go to college was underwater in his house for awhile and stressed out. But he kept it and now everything is rosey. As long as you are confident you can make your payments, confident you can find a new job if laid off, and don't think you will need to move from the region anytime soon, I don't see a problem with jumping in despite the high rates, at least in the more desirable, stable locations (DC is one of most recession proof metros). The statistical odds of rates going down enough to make refinancing attractive in the next 5 to 10 years is very high (presidential elections tend to correspond with lower rates). The second rates go down, prices will start going up and there will be bidding wars again. We just don't have enough housing in this country and we still aren't building enough today. The old people who didn't take risks in the housing market are the ones who are really kicking themselves right now.

[altasnob]

No one is forcing them to depreciate the property, and they only have to claim residency 2 of the prior 5 years to selling.

Ya, I meant to say three years not two years. So if you rent your home more than three years in a row you don't get capital gains exclusion.

You don't have to depreciate your rental property, but I can't think of a reason you would not want to do that. As liv2ski mentioned, even if you have to pay depreciation recapture tax, that amount is trivial. The tax would never be greater than the benefit you received from taking the depreciation. The important part is to not fuck up that primary residence for 2 of 5 year rule end your ability to take that capital gains exemption.

[fastfred]

yawn

[altasnob]

yawn

What did you expect for depreciation recapture? Pay attention because one day you will be STRing that million dollar pad of yours.

Skid down any icy groomers at Breck today? Here's what Crystal looked like. Going to a burlesque metal show tonight.

[jackstraw]

The second rates go down, prices will start going up and there will be bidding wars again.

Bidding wars have not ended in desirable places.

[shroom]

mouths salivate as tension forms in the air

process, a study in policy

[goldenboy]

Bidding wars have not ended in desirable places.

From what I've been hearing, bidding wars are still quite common in areas that might be considered less desireable, like Cleveland. But they're less common in places like Seattle and Boise that were hotbeds recently.

[Kevo]

The Boise housing market is in freefall. It's down more than 20% since peaking last year, but I'd guess it still has a long, long way to fall.

[sirbumpsalot]

5 offers on this house last week:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...51278831_zpid/

[ötzi]

I don't find that too surprising. Yard could sure use some trees but it's a pretty nice place. It says there's an offer pending, do you know how much it's for?

[rideit]

The 'Starter home' now starts at a million. It's the new $250,000

[ötzi]

It's almost 6100 square feet, in the city proper, with decent finishes, not horribly ugly, shouldn't need anything major, that's a pretty nice starter home. Yard kinda sucks but less to mow.

[BFD]

5 offers on this house last week:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...51278831_zpid/

well I guess this supports what Goldenboy's been hearing.

[Conundrum]

Some kids start on third base.

[shroom]

The 'Starter home' now starts at a million. It's the new $250,000

don’t fear sir, we have a financial product for that

feature not a bug

[lowsparkco]

5 offers on this house last week:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...51278831_zpid/

Turn key is huge in today’s market and is only growing in importance. That house was priced right and is super clean.

This one is around the corner, overpriced, and has been sitting nearly 3 months.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...ource=txtshare