Real Estate Crash thread

[skaredshtles]

FF, valuation has 0 to do with a mortgage payment. It is loan balance, term and rate. 7% over 30 years and a $8k PITI payment is about a $950k loan amount which is for realz in D.C.

Pretty sure maths are not FF's strong suit.

[Danno]

You're kinda old to be house-poor, yeah?

I am! Which is why I don't want to be house poor!

[Mazderati]

What does an 8k payment in DC buy? 1,200 sq ft?

[fastfred]

the economy IS tanking
it's just not imploding right now so we all pretending that things are ok
its a slow burn downward right now
inflation isn't being talked about and broken down so dumb people like me can see the how and why
"it's like oh darn prices are up" but in reality people are being raped by inflation which is mostly a profit grab to keep wall street propped up

do not believe anything that things are doing ok
as long as wall street keeps it together keeps hitting good numbers without a huge 1,000 pt drop we will keep being told everything is GREAT

real estate is being held together barely and high prices remain because buyers are kinda dumb or being forced into bad deals due to FOMO

[fastfred]

Pretty sure maths are not FF's strong suit.

never got past the basics
was still working on passing 9th grade level in 12th grade
not every one is a schollar bro

[skaredshtles]

I am! Which is why I don't want to be house poor!

You're smarter than you look.

[Kevo]

Of course, any mortgage that requires your income is a risk, and if it requires 2 incomes even more risk, but getting mortgages based on 2 incomes is hardly uncommon. I will grant you that there is definitely risk in that.

But if rates go down significantly, I don't think it likely that house will also go down significantly in value, assuming they bought in a good place (location, location, location).

I think all you are really pointing out is the risk of being house poor, with people making that choice assuming that the landscape will change such that they won't always be house poor. It's a valid point, but I don't see the hudge risk you do. But then, I'm also a renter now sitting on the sidelines because I don't think it's a good time to buy and I don't want to be house poor.

The risk isn't just being house poor. House poor means maybe taking a few less vacations and eating out less and perhaps driving a late model car. The risk is that one could end up underwater by many hundreds of thousands of dollars and be forced to sell at a loss in a recourse state, where that mistake will follow them around for years and years.

I have come to the conclusion that people are at the whim of the timing of macroeconomic events outside their control. Most people do not have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines and trying to time entries into the real estate market. People who are in their mid 30s now and who are wanting to start families after doing everything right (undergrad at a good school, grad school at a good school, grinding consulting/tech/law careers into top 10% income roles while finding a similarly driven and stable partner) don't have another 5 years to wait.

When shit goes tits up the narrative will be about how irresponsible people were taking irrational and unreasonable risks in the housing market. The truth is that governmental and federal reserve policy led to wild swings in interest rates and the market, making the market itself irrational and unreasonable. People at the right place in their lives at the wrong time will get fucked, and in large part they are just a victim of being born 5 years to late to have gotten into at a reasonable time.

[skaredshtles]

The risk isn't just being house poor. House poor means maybe taking a few less vacations and eating out less and perhaps driving a late model car. The risk is that one could end up underwater by many hundreds of thousands of dollars and be forced to sell at a loss in a recourse state, where that mistake will follow them around for years and years.

I have come to the conclusion that people are at the whim of the timing of macroeconomic events outside their control. Most people do not have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines and trying to time entries into the real estate market. People who are in their mid 30s now and who are wanting to start families after doing everything right (undergrad at a good school, grad school at a good school, grinding consulting/tech/law careers into top 10% income roles while finding a similarly driven and stable partner) don't have another 5 years to wait.

When shit goes tits up the narrative will be about how irresponsible people were taking irrational and unreasonable risks in the housing market. The truth is that governmental and federal reserve policy led to wild swings in interest rates and the market, making the market itself irrational and unreasonable. People at the right place in their lives at the wrong time will get fucked, and in large part they are just a victim of being born 5 years to late to have gotten into at a reasonable time.

Welcome to life in the U.S.

[Danno]

The risk isn't just being house poor. House poor means maybe taking a few less vacations and eating out less and perhaps driving a late model car. The risk is that one could end up underwater by many hundreds of thousands of dollars and be forced to sell at a loss in a recourse state, where that mistake will follow them around for years and years.

I have come to the conclusion that people are at the whim of the timing of macroeconomic events outside their control. Most people do not have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines and trying to time entries into the real estate market. People who are in their mid 30s now and who are wanting to start families after doing everything right (undergrad at a good school, grad school at a good school, grinding consulting/tech/law careers into top 10% income roles while finding a similarly driven and stable partner) don't have another 5 years to wait.

When shit goes tits up the narrative will be about how irresponsible people were taking irrational and unreasonable risks in the housing market. The truth is that governmental and federal reserve policy led to wild swings in interest rates and the market, making the market itself irrational and unreasonable. People at the right place in their lives at the wrong time will get fucked, and in large part they are just a victim of being born 5 years to late to have gotten into at a reasonable time.

The risk of being underwater is ALWAYS there, so I don't see your friends as more subject to that risk than anyone who takes out a mortgage on property. And being underwater may be a bad thing, but it only becomes an issue if you can't pay your mortgage.

And while you say they made a mistake in buying, you also state that "people do not have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines and trying to time entries into the real estate market. People who are in their mid 30s now and who are wanting to start families after doing everything right (undergrad at a good school, grad school at a good school, grinding consulting/tech/law careers into top 10% income roles while finding a similarly driven and stable partner) don't have another 5 years to wait." Which is it? Did your friends make a mistake, ie they should have tried to time the market, or did they not make a mistake, because they don't have the luxury of waiting?

It really sounds like you have greater issues with our macroeconomic climate and not so much issues with your friends' decision.

[dunfree]

What does an 8k payment in DC buy? 1,200 sq ft?

1700 sq ft 4bd/2ba 1960s split level if you want to be reasonably close to DC

[Kevo]

It really sounds like you have greater issues with our macroeconomic climate and not so much issues with your friends' decision.

That is the root of my issue, yes.

[skaredshtles]

1700 sq ft 4bd/2ba 1960s split level if you want to be reasonably close to DC

I just can't fathom why anyone would want to be reasonably close to DC.

[XXX-er]

Welcome to life in the U.S.

AND Canada where its much worse, 20 % of people with mortgages are facked due to variable and or short term mortgages

[dunfree]

I just can't fathom why anyone would want to be reasonably close to DC.

Further out you can get more land (but not enough to matter) and home but it’s still the same megapolis shithole, just with more driving

[Supermoon]

I just can't fathom why anyone would want to be reasonably close to DC.

If you can tolerate the weather, and avoid the Hill-staffer scene (big ifs), DC actually is a pretty cool place. Lots of good outdoors opportunities nearby, good food, central to lots of stuff on the east coast.

[dunfree]

If you can tolerate the weather, and avoid the Hill-staffer scene (big ifs), DC actually is a pretty cool place. Lots of good outdoors opportunities nearby, good food, central to lots of stuff on the east coast.

great food, if you are interested in foreign cooking. Outdoors mostly sucks, but the drawback is the salary structure that assumes new people should be paid shit and they’ll make it up eventually

[Mazderati]

I could do DC proper or maybe Court House but driving in that whole area is the pits.

[ghosthop]

I just can't fathom why anyone would want to be reasonably close to DC.

DC is excellent, I would be happy to live there if we could afford a house in the city. The suburban sprawl in the surround counties is soul sucking. Great food, museums, urban parks, you can find whatever your heart desires. The cherry on top is that DC has some of the best bike commuting infrastructure in the country.

[dunfree]

DC is excellent, I would be happy to live there if we could afford a house in the city. The suburban sprawl in the surround counties is soul sucking. Great food, museums, urban parks, you can find whatever your heart desires. The cherry on top is that DC has some of the best bike commuting infrastructure in the country.

inside the beltway or just outside is enough. Transport is soul crushing, because racist trash in downstate va fucked up

[Danno]

Hard to believe there are so many DC opinions on a skiing forum.

[DBdude]

great food, if you are interested in foreign cooking. Outdoors mostly sucks, but the drawback is the salary structure that assumes new people should be paid shit and they’ll make it up eventually

IT people get paid - the contracting opportunities are outstanding

[dunfree]

Hard to believe there are so many DC opinions on a skiing forum.

Danno has never seen people drop $$k for their Colorado ski trip

and it’s funny cuz flying out of dc once I was seated next to random mag voyeur

[Danno]

Danno has never seen people drop $$k for their Colorado ski trip

and it’s funny cuz flying out of dc once I was seated next to random mag voyeur

[ötzi]

It varies a lot by jurisdiction around DC. Virginia is pretty much Red and property rights uber alles, so there's suburban sprawl as far as the eye can see. Maryland leans Blue, generally believes in regulation, and varies a lot by county and within the counties.

I lived 23 miles from the White House in Montgomery County, Maryland on 10 acres at the end of a dead-end road, couldn't see a neighbor from my house and had 3500 acres of wooded parkland out the back door with the Potomac a mile away. As long as you didn't need to commute to DC it was pretty damn nice. Easy to get down to DC at other times.

It was always my plan to leave but it wasn't bad at all being there. Definitely had to pick your spot, though. Kinda wish we had kept that place another year, we left some real money on the table in the last run-up but we still made out fine.

[dunfree]

sos east coast skiing

whitetail, roundtop, massanothing, WV shitholes