Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

didnt the jobs report last week showed that construction added very few new jobs, so i doubt to expect inventory problems to be solved anytime soon.

Inventory is at 3mo supply. New home sales have completely collapsed. While long term there might be an inventory problem affordability is more important. I see a lot of new apt complexes opening around the region too.

Toll Brothers is offering finance incentives on spec inventory and cutting prices. If sales of existing dont pick up soon prices have to fall or that supply gets carried over to next spring.

[pogs4ever]

^ i totally agree with that assessment fwiw. I was just commenting that some of the factors are already self correcting themselves.

tons of new apartment complexes going up in Boise, I'm scared to even see what rent they are going to ask.

[yeahman]

tons of new apartment complexes going up in Boise, I'm scared to even see what rent they are going to ask.

Hopefully this will coincide with fewer WFH people moving there and will result in some good old fashioned competition to get the places rented out.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Months supply at 1.3 in the county and 1.2 in Bozeman city limits as of latest data (June 2022). 0.9 this time last year.

[4matic]

Supply:

Existing

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSSUPUSM673N

New

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

[Kevo]

^ It would be really nice if the existing supply data went back before last year.

[4matic]

^ It would be really nice if the existing supply data went back before last year.

Historical option on top of the chart not sure why it’s not working

[Kevo]

Historical option on top of the chart

It's showing me no data before June 2021

[dunfree]

Wildly different when you look at aggregate listings (way down still)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

as opposed to the ratio of sales/listings

[rideit]

Sounds like the Town Of Jackson is now limiting short term rentals to once in a 90 day period as opposed to once in a 30 day period. Ill be curious if this actually changes anything.

[Kevo]

Wildly different when you look at aggregate listings (way down still)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

as opposed to the ratio of sales/listings

Good call.

Jan 2022 to now inventory went up by 50% but months of supply went up by 100%. The only thing that can account for that delta is a massive reduction in demand.

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...riod-1.6527837

" British Columbia has announced a mandatory three-day period to allow homebuyers time to arrange an inspection and take other important steps like securing financing in the province's high-pressure real estate market.

Finance Minister Selina Robinson says the consumer protection policy, effective Jan. 1, is aimed at providing people with peace of mind as unconditional offers are common and could later end up costing buyers thousands of dollars in repairs.

Robinson says the policy, the first of its kind in Canada, includes a cancellation fee of 0.25 per cent of the purchase price, or $250 for every $100,000, for those who back out of a deal, balancing the needs of both buyers and sellers."

[4matic]

Wildly different when you look at aggregate listings (way down still)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

as opposed to the ratio of sales/listings

Which makes it more negative since supply is not the cause of weak sales

[dunfree]

Which makes it more negative since supply is not the cause of weak sales

for what time frame? Housing stars & permits are declining. Unless you are forecasting mass penury or a repopulation of the rust belt this is just a can kicking and the same thing gonna happen again,because not enough houses where people want to live.

[californiagrown]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...riod-1.6527837

" British Columbia has announced a mandatory three-day period to allow homebuyers time to arrange an inspection and take other important steps like securing financing in the province's high-pressure real estate market.

Finance Minister Selina Robinson says the consumer protection policy, effective Jan. 1, is aimed at providing people with peace of mind as unconditional offers are common and could later end up costing buyers thousands of dollars in repairs.

Robinson says the policy, the first of its kind in Canada, includes a cancellation fee of 0.25 per cent of the purchase price, or $250 for every $100,000, for those who back out of a deal, balancing the needs of both buyers and sellers."

Soooo when is this american gonna be able to buy a house in BC again? without first knocking up a nice canadian lady?

[liv2ski]

I you can pay cash go for it. Maybe you can get a Foreign National loan with 50% down.

[californiagrown]

I you can pay cash go for it. Maybe you can get a Foreign National loan with 50% down.

I thought BC had a moratorium on foreign real estate purchases?

[XXX-er]

Soooo when is this american gonna be able to buy a house in BC again? without first knocking up a nice canadian lady?

I was pointing out what another jurisdiction with many years of stupid pricing is doing and so if one area is doing it whom is next ?

Its not all about you

I've met Americans who own stuff up here and I suspect they had a lot of money

[liv2ski]

I know in the USA foreign nationals can get a loan with 30% to 50% down, so I would assume Canada has the same thing. There is a place I would love to buy in Vangroovy, but its price is way beyond me. I better buy a Lotto ticket today.

[XXX-er]

Yeah due to the money laundering/ the 2 waves of crazy rich azns and becuz its pretty nice place Van groovy has been going mach stupid since the downturn of the 80's with absolutely zero intervention until now, in any case it will be interesting to see what effect a cooling off period has on RE sales and i would think people re watching

we get crazy the rich americans up here some buy the RE the thing is its more plane rides out of the USA

[californiagrown]

Its not all about you

I don't understand?... Who/whats it all about then? The hokey pokey?

[Toadman]

It's finally happening. The older Gen Z and youngest Millenials can hopefully afford to buy a house.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/u...110416053.html

Pantheon Macro estimated that single-family existing home prices dropped by a "hefty" 1.8% in June compared to a month earlier, following a 0.4% fall in May.

"The market is adjusting to a new reality, with much lower sales volumes and far more inventory. Prices, therefore, have to adjust to the downside, likely quite substantially," Shepherdson said.

[Ted Striker]

Every flavor of stupid in the comments.

[Kevo]

This is interesting- https://encorebubble.com/visualization-of-price-drops/

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Properties that are prices correctly are still going under contract very fast. Had a client just miss on a 10ac, desirable location outside town, 980k. Savvy sellers/listing agent. If they went 1.2M it may have sat for a bit. Instead it was under contract in like 48 hours which last year would have been a "long time" haha. I'll be curious to see the sales prices when it closes, but I'm guessing this one will be comfortably over asking.