Real Estate Crash thread

[AdironRider]

I think my sarcasm may need a less volatile solvent because it was dripping when I first applied it. I don't mind if Carl thinks he's being complimented, since that's literally the worst thing that can happen to him on here, but man if that's a good summation you may need to reassess your underlying position.

A summation is rarely the whole story, but you aren't far off that my overall point is that I don't fault people for buying or paying what they do, just that acting concerned about the effects of their actions right after they do it anyways is pretty hypocritical.

[ötzi]

I do get what you're saying AR but to twist it on its head, who better than those people to comment on the situation? Or at least one side of the situation. They lived it.

[AdironRider]

Not one person has suggested that the sellers should take the high road. What people are saying is that it's a weird position to excoriate the buyers who have the money to buy, as if they should stay somewhere else, yet treat the sellers with kid gloves. If the sellers are allowed to complain about "the current situation" while at the same time getting top dollar for their property, why can't the buyers pay that top dollar, yet complain about "the current situation". THAT is what people are getting at, IMO.

Because, and you know this, its more than just the price of housing and the resulting mortgage. Daycare in Jackson is 150+ dollars a day and virtually non-existent in TV for example. When I pulled my kid of the one daycare remaining in the entire valley when I left, there was a wait list over 150 kids long, for a daycare with just over 20 slots. Think about that. And that daycare was in rented space and I'll be shocked if it makes it another year or two without being forced to close as well.

The price of food, the cost to fix your roof, everything became unattainable financially. Those price increases are not being driven by the existing local population. So yeah, saying that the person who can no longer afford all that has some role in keeping the price a bit lower for the people who are replacing them and can afford all that is a bit of a kick in the balls. Could they do it, sure, but to say the blame is equal on both sides is bullshit.

[subtle plague]

We need to put a Germanic spin on that from here on out. Maybe Subtle Plague can write out a phonetic spelling for us.

I've been in 3 different situations (just visiting!) in just the past couple of weeks (inner city, farm country and a resort area) where people were bemoaning the new people buying and moving in and the changes and the higher prices. They're all against the new people but the oldtimers that sold to them get a pass. Why is that?

Just say "Ee head gearn tzwah Krossong" if you're in Austria. That'll do.

[AdironRider]

I do get what you're saying AR but to twist it on its head, who better than those people to comment on the situation? Or at least one side of the situation. They lived it.

Someone other than the person who just moved there and is the direct reason it is no longer affordable. The displacer is literally the worst person not the best IMO.

Again, I do not blame them for moving there, just that they need to sit out the plays where they try and propose solutions they are just going to ignore and only further increase the inequality levels they just created.

[Danno]

Because, and you know this, its more than just the price of housing and the resulting mortgage. Daycare in Jackson is 150+ dollars a day and virtually non-existent in TV for example. When I pulled my kid of the one daycare remaining in the entire valley when I left, there was a wait list over 150 kids long, for a daycare with just over 20 slots. Think about that. And that daycare was in rented space and I'll be shocked if it makes it another year or two without being forced to close as well.

The price of food, the cost to fix your roof, everything became unattainable financially. So yeah, saying that the person who can no longer afford all that has some role in keeping the price a bit lower for the people who are replacing them and can afford all that is a bit of a kick in the balls. Could they do it, sure, but to say the blame is equal on both sides is bullshit.

But again, not one person is saying that you should sell for a lower amount if you want to complain about the situation. I agree, that's a kick in the balls, and I have been in similar situations, selling because I was forced to knowing that I will never be able to buy back in, and leaving a town I loved because I was never going to be able to buy unless I changed my situation dramatically. I get it, it sucks.

But I would never say that the guy who bought my place (with a full cash offer) shouldn't be able to complain about how expensive this place is, or shouldn't be able to discuss or offer possible solutions to the problem.

[AdironRider]

Fine, it is America after all, they can complain about affordability all they want, it just falls on deaf ears to the people they claim to be complaining for.

The reality is they are just complaining they couldn't have gotten in cheaper and the service sucks now in this town. The people they displaced do not believe they are being sincere, because it is highly doubtful they really care about the construction worker or teacher who has to leave just that it sucks for them that those people aren't there any more. They don't even know their names.

[jono]

A summation is rarely the whole story, but you aren't far off that my overall point is that I don't fault people for buying or paying what they do, just that acting concerned about the effects of their actions right after they do it anyways is pretty hypocritical.

I get what you're saying, obviously, but your position here is basically just that the world should conform to one-dimensional thinking. There are hundreds of factors, good and bad, that influence these decisions and it's not hypocritical at all to see that one or two of the bad effects of a net "good" decision (for the person making it) are bad and should be mitigated. Even if they're not bad enough to make them change the decision. There are other options besides changing the binary choice of moving or not moving someplace.

I'll grant that the "move someplace and fix it" approach is often amazingly myopic, but you and Kevo will have to fight that one out. That's different from just saying he can't voice any opinion.

[altacoup]

This comes off as victim blaming in a lot of ways. So the person who is getting fucked is responsible for doing the unfucking as well? No way.

Again, I don't blame Kevo and the like for moving to TV or paying what they do, just fucking own it and stop acting concerned about affordability right after you do it.

Do you blame the republicans party that has voted for huge benefits for the rich to park their money in real estate and pretend to live in Wyoming so as to avoid taxes? Because 100% that has massively affected the cost of living in the Jackson area.

Should the government step in to regulate the free market and fix these injustices that locals in the Jackson area face?

[RoooR]

the educational and social capital necessary to land a remote job? If we are talking about actual towns, they don’t necessarily offer much for either. City’s like Bozeman, Missoula, etc maybe different and some them had suppressed wages for a while

and of course communities have needs for other job types

It's been a joke in these towns for decades how many barristas have advanced degrees. Well, now time to put them to work!

[Mustonen]

So why aren’t we railing against the factors that drove wages so low that property values necessarily cratered without outside investment? If the average wage in a high cost of living area halved over two years due to money flowing out of the area, driving property values down…. Well…. Welcome to middle America.

[Kevo]

I don't have to make assumptions, you are very vocal about where you stand and why you do things and who you are on this board. That said, I don't blame you for moving to the valley or for working remotely. The valley is an appealing place to live and get that paper. Trust me on this, I understand and moved there for the same reasons.

What I do not support is your complete lack of recognition that you directly are causing the affordability problem. Without rehashing everything like Conundrum has highlighted, you continue to express concern for an affordability problem you directly caused. Literally no one you are displacing believes your concern about it because you went ahead and paid the increased costs and displaced a local anyways. Again, that is your right and I see why you did it, but maybe stfu up about how it worries you, or how you could do something about it. You had that chance and said fuck it, I'm paying the money. You might feel guilty about it, but then are going to get on your bike, or go for a ski, and enjoy the rest of the day while making six figures remotely and forget all about it while the people you displaced are starting over somewhere else after being forced out a place they loved.

Life isn't fair, gentrification (for lack of a better word) is a bitch, and I'm definitely bitter about a lot of things but when the displacers feign concern for the people they displaced it is straight up insulting. I say this as a guy who owned his house and was fortunate to have a decent enough job that I wasn't forced to do anything, but dozens of my friends, the people that made the valley what it was to me, were. I still had the Tetons and the snow and the access but lost most of the culture that made it great otherwise. And there were some other reasons also for why I left that I wont get into and remote workers had absolutely zero to do with, but I know what the effects of the affordability problem are and had many a teary goodbye to good people who lost out. You haven't had to go through that in your year or two yet, but you will eventually, and maybe you'll understand then.

I hope I have been able to explain my logic on this. I really don't think you are a bad guy, but sometimes what you say just comes off as extremely out of touch to the people you are talking about, so maybe this helps you understand where guys like me are coming from.

I'll also edit to add that I'm expressing this to you because you moved to Teton Valley and so it hits home to me, but it's not unique to you, and it was probably unfair of me to single you out directly. This is a story as old as time in any mountain town. I'm sure someone feels I displaced them at one point as well and I'm just some bitter old local trying to illustrate something I didn't fully grasp myself at one point either.

Vocal about what, exactly? The post that Conundrum referenced was when I said I'd gladly pay more in property taxes so that local public servants could get paid more. Should I just get in line with the multigenerational Idahoans and tow the "government employees are lazy, starve them out" narrative? How long do I need to live here before I can have an opinion? And didn't Conundrum himself benefit from a much more equitable tax structure a few generations ago when his teacher parents were able to raise a family in Idaho?

How many people do you think I displaced with my presence here? Two? Four? Ten?

In the 90s and early 2000s it was possible to live in Teton Valley and own a house with a partner with both people working at a gas station for a sub $10/hr wages. One of my friends from high school lived in Driggs for a while after college and was able to rent a room for $250/month while working odd jobs and skiing 6 days a week. How many of those people did you displace when you bought your place in Victor with your salary (but still "local" so it must be OK) job?

In 2009 my college best friend and I were trying to figure out the dream of living in a mountain town. He and I ran the numbers and tried to figure out how to make it work. We could move to a mountain town in our early 20s and try to get into the trades or real estate or do something professionally with the dream of maybe eventually being able to buy a house. We had friends that were several years older who had graduated from college and were trying to make things work in Breckenridge and Steamboat. One was able to rent an entire house in Breck while making $15 or $20 per hour working at front desk. Maybe it could work, but for how long? How about saving for retirement or a family? And if it didn't work, things could be completely fucked because it is exceedingly difficult to jump into a career after doing the ski town thing for your entire 20s.

Around that same time I was posting on TGR asking for career advice because it was really fucking hard trying to launch a career in the depths of the GFC after leaving a public service job. Most responses that I got were that my struggles were because I was lazy or entitled.

Anyway, my best friend and I came to the conclusion that the best path forward was to try to launch careers, save money, delay gratification and then hopefully someday make the move. He worked his way into a sales job in Seattle and eventually saved enough to start a company by the skin of his teeth. I got a series of shitty jobs and taught myself markup languages at night and on weekends and eventually worked my way into a tech startup and then another. I worked countless 60 and 80 hour weeks and spent years and years on the road for 30+ weeks a year at the cost of friendships and relationships back home.

I'm sure things were great for your friends who got to live in a ski town while I was in Hamburg and Amsterdam and London for months on end while expanding a business to Europe. I'm sure it was fun skiing dawn patrol powder on the pass when I was dropping everything at a moment's notice to hop on a plane and fly to the other side of the world to put out fires for clients in Singapore and Jakarta. I missed out on mountain town living while I was having to explain to at the time GF that I wouldn't be coming home from Asia for the weekend we had planned together because I had to help out with something last minute in Sydney.

My college friends who went to ski towns directly after college had to move back to East Coast when the cost of living got too high.

My best friend from college now splits his time between his houses in Seattle and Leavenworth. He used to work 80 hour weeks too, but now his business is successful and he is in a stable place in his mid 30s where he can raise a family in a mountain town and ski and bike and trail run as much as he wants.

That company that I dropped everything for sold for north of a billion dollars.

The displacer/ displaced narrative is myopic. If the writing was on the wall in 2009 when I was in my early 20s, can you really be mad at the people who read it?

Some people got to spend the best years of their life skiing and partying in exchange for sacrificing their later years. Some of us sacrificed our 20s and early 30s for what we have now.

[Mustonen]

^^^ Well said and thank you.

[Core Shot]

Just got a letter from one of my wholesalers

30 to 40% increase.

Batten the hatches. Plan for hyperinflation.

Holy fubar

[Conundrum]

Kevo-I went back and read the interaction and thought we kept it fairly civil with me ranking slightly higher on the dick scale.

A little flavor though-we sort of benefitted from the system as my parents were teachers. But poor teachers. They were able to do it in rural Idaho because their house cost $24k. In todays dollars, maybe $125k. Not buying much for that these days.

Change is the only constant.

[CarlMega]

Anyway, my best friend and I came to the conclusion that the best path forward was to try to launch careers, save money, delay gratification and then hopefully someday make the move.
...
Some people got to spend the best years of their life skiing and partying in exchange for sacrificing their later years. Some of us sacrificed our 20s and early 30s for what we have now.

^^I think this is why you need to reserve criticism or be hyper specific.

There are a bunch of people who moved to towns with zero plans regarding the stability of their situation and the inevitable comes to pass.

Other people put a long range plan in action and eventually see their labors bear fruit.

And everything in between. None of us are on each other's timeline. So what are you going to do about it?

I do hold some side eye'd criticism for people who target an area due to the efforts of those who came before which made it an attractive place to live... and then systematically work on dismantling those values / systems that made it awesome. But most people simply want to live in cool places with high quality of life offerings.. hard to fault that.

[AdironRider]

Vocal about what, exactly? The post that Conundrum referenced was when I said I'd gladly pay more in property taxes so that local public servants could get paid more. Should I just get in line with the multigenerational Idahoans and tow the "government employees are lazy, starve them out" narrative? How long do I need to live here before I can have an opinion? And didn't Conundrum himself benefit from a much more equitable tax structure a few generations ago when his teacher parents were able to raise a family in Idaho?

How many people do you think I displaced with my presence here? Two? Four? Ten?

In the 90s and early 2000s it was possible to live in Teton Valley and own a house with a partner with both people working at a gas station for a sub $10/hr wages. One of my friends from high school lived in Driggs for a while after college and was able to rent a room for $250/month while working odd jobs and skiing 6 days a week. How many of those people did you displace when you bought your place in Victor with your salary (but still "local" so it must be OK) job?

In 2009 my college best friend and I were trying to figure out the dream of living in a mountain town. He and I ran the numbers and tried to figure out how to make it work. We could move to a mountain town in our early 20s and try to get into the trades or real estate or do something professionally with the dream of maybe eventually being able to buy a house. We had friends that were several years older who had graduated from college and were trying to make things work in Breckenridge and Steamboat. One was able to rent an entire house in Breck while making $15 or $20 per hour working at front desk. Maybe it could work, but for how long? How about saving for retirement or a family? And if it didn't work, things could be completely fucked because it is exceedingly difficult to jump into a career after doing the ski town thing for your entire 20s.

Around that same time I was posting on TGR asking for career advice because it was really fucking hard trying to launch a career in the depths of the GFC after leaving a public service job. Most responses that I got were that my struggles were because I was lazy or entitled.

Anyway, my best friend and I came to the conclusion that the best path forward was to try to launch careers, save money, delay gratification and then hopefully someday make the move. He worked his way into a sales job in Seattle and eventually saved enough to start a company by the skin of his teeth. I got a series of shitty jobs and taught myself markup languages at night and on weekends and eventually worked my way into a tech startup and then another. I worked countless 60 and 80 hour weeks and spent years and years on the road for 30+ weeks a year at the cost of friendships and relationships back home.

I'm sure things were great for your friends who got to live in a ski town while I was in Hamburg and Amsterdam and London for months on end while expanding a business to Europe. I'm sure it was fun skiing dawn patrol powder on the pass when I was dropping everything at a moment's notice to hop on a plane and fly to the other side of the world to put out fires for clients in Singapore and Jakarta. I missed out on mountain town living while I was having to explain to at the time GF that I wouldn't be coming home from Asia for the weekend we had planned together because I had to help out with something last minute in Sydney.

My college friends who went to ski towns directly after college had to move back to East Coast when the cost of living got too high.

My best friend from college now splits his time between his houses in Seattle and Leavenworth. He used to work 80 hour weeks too, but now his business is successful and he is in a stable place in his mid 30s where he can raise a family in a mountain town and ski and bike and trail run as much as he wants.

That company that I dropped everything for sold for north of a billion dollars.

The displacer/ displaced narrative is myopic. If the writing was on the wall in 2009 when I was in my early 20s, can you really be mad at the people who read it?

Some people got to spend the best years of their life skiing and partying in exchange for sacrificing their later years. Some of us sacrificed our 20s and early 30s for what we have now.

Woe be the man who is jet setting around the world making substantial sums so he can move to the mountains in middle age. Jesus christ man way to double down. I salute your conviction none the less, you have only proven further what I believe.

But I still don't fault you for working hard and moving to a mountain town. I'm sure you will enjoy it, and you should enjoy the fruit of your labor. Just maybe shut up about the affordability problem that you played a direct role in causing and only care about because it actually makes your mountain town a little less awesome. It's not even a bad thing, but it is insulting to hear you then say its a problem and oh no what should we do about it and you sacrificed so much flying business class to London on a Friday.

Enjoy waiting an hour for the Tram, zero parking on the pass, and restaurant service that can be measured in eons. Eventually you will need to replace a roof or have a child that needs an education and you'll wonder why the best students at Teton High will be lucky to go to Boise State as a reach school and why no one will call you back about that roof. Or maybe you'll lose a friend or three and realize fuck, maybe waxing on the internet about affordability really doesn't solve anything and only makes the people you now need to keep your lifestyle going want to be a part of it even less, regardless of however much you want to increase your taxes (which smart money says won't be nearly enough before you complain about the taxes, which is a story even older than the affordability one).

The snow will always be there though, maximize it, that was the point for both of us.

[Percy Rideout]

Woe be the man who is jet setting around the world making substantial sums so he can move to the mountains in middle age. Jesus christ man way to double down. I salute your conviction none the less, you have only proven further what I believe.

But I still don't fault you for working hard and moving to a mountain town. I'm sure you will enjoy it, and you should enjoy the fruit of your labor. Just maybe shut up about the affordability problem that you played a direct role in causing and only care about because it actually makes your mountain town a little less awesome. It's not even a bad thing, but it is insulting to hear you then say its a problem and oh no what should we do about it and you sacrificed so much flying business class to London on a Friday.

Enjoy waiting an hour for the Tram, zero parking on the pass, and restaurant service that can be measured in eons. Eventually you will need to replace a roof or have a child that needs an education and you'll wonder why the best students at Teton High will be lucky to go to Boise State as a reach school and why no one will call you back about that roof. Or maybe you'll lose a friend or three and realize fuck, maybe waxing on the internet about affordability really doesn't solve anything and only makes the people you now need to keep your lifestyle going want to be a part of it even less, regardless of however much you want to increase your taxes (which smart money says won't be nearly enough before you complain about the taxes, which is a story even older than the affordability one).

The snow will always be there though, maximize it, that was the point for both of us.

Someone wrote into The Aspen Times recently discussing the disconnect between locals, and the new pandemic migration locals.

He singled out that the hate between the groups stems from these pandemic migrants "buying then immediately flaunting" their local status instead of earning it through grit, sacrifice, time, and sometimes many shitty jobs like the locals did before them. They didn't "earn" their rite of passage like the pre-pandemic locals, and are looked down upon as inferior yuppies like we see upthread.

The pandemic changed everything about these resort mountain towns. Town is much busier, but the place we fell in love with is still here, and we are happy to be a part of the community, albeit much more expensive and crowded now.

[liv2ski]

Thanks I’ll add you to the list of people struggling here. Reread what I wrote and your response.

My comment was not directed at you, but the douche on ignore.

[californiagrown]

earning it through grit, sacrifice, time, and sometimes many shitty jobs like the locals did before them.

It always struck me as odd when the classic "vocal local" type shit on the newcomer yuppy for this stuff. Its as if they think the yuppy didnt have to work their ass off, and made no sacrifices to get where they are now. And the vocal local always seems to conveniently forget about the massive, obvious, whole-reason-for-living-where-they-do-benefit that they enjoyed all these years that the yuppy didnt.

fastfred had a good perspective when he says that he doesnt really envy his richass clients because their vacation, is his life.

[dunfree]

Fastfred says a lot of shit cube monkeys want to hear

[BCMtnHound]

A lot of the local vs newcomer mtn town angst sound very similar to the small buttfuck nowhere towns I have inhabited over the past 30yrs. Valley royalty bemoaning the influx of new blood looking for the space and lower cost of the outback. And at the same time demanding their birth lottery cred be recognized and that the gubmit should bring new industry and opportunity into the area for their offsprings’ sustenance. And certainly some of those newcomers are bringing ideas and attitudes that are not in sync with the rural vibe they moved into. Been going on since whitey came wandering into the indigenous camps hundreds of years ago, and probably even before then.

[AdironRider]

No one is demanding satisfaction for having got there first (well at least I'm not), just that newcomers should sit the plays out that involve immediately harping about economic changes they are directly responsible for creating.

[californiagrown]

No one is demanding satisfaction for having got there first (well at least I'm not), just that newcomers should sit the plays out that involve immediately harping about economic changes they are directly responsible for creating.

harping about, or acknowledging/discussing?

[Danno]

when is "immediate" over, when does the time limit expire that allows them to comment on those things in their new home?