Is the stock market going to tank?

**Kevo** · 06-13-2022, 01:19 PM

Thanks Brock and 4matic for your thoughts on bonds. Definitely an interesting subject matter at the moment.

**4matic** · 06-13-2022, 01:32 PM

Originally Posted by Kevo

Thanks Brock and 4matic for your thoughts on bonds. Definitely an interesting subject matter at the moment.

We’re dead wrong as of today but thanks!

**sirbumpsalot** · 06-13-2022, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by CarlMega

What's the marker for putting sideline money into indexes?

A price mark? An event? An intersection?

Curious how ppl with cash on the sides & a belief that it's overvalued now would choose their opportunity for eventual long holding. (vs. cost avging)

Hold your nose and throw the money in....fast forward 3-5yrs and look back and laugh one way or another.

**Cono Este** · 06-13-2022, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

Hold your nose and throw the money in....fast forward 3-5yrs and look back and laugh one way or another.

I wish I could learn to wait, bloodbath.

Close on new low today and it’s going to be a rough week.

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**dschane** · 06-13-2022, 01:39 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

We’re dead wrong as of today but thanks!

ha, just a single data point. I too appreciate your guys' thoughts/input. I have gleaned ideas and read good articles from this board.

**Timberridge** · 06-13-2022, 01:44 PM

This will settle down in a week. All the money managers will be heading to the Hamptons and Nantucket next week for the summer. HS graduations are this week, then off to the beach.

But, if this keeps up much longer than that maybe the Fed won't need to raise rates. So, we have that.

**Bunion 2020** · 06-13-2022, 01:52 PM

Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

That is true....I am not 70 like a lot of you.

FWIW

There have been 26 bear markets since 1929, but only 15 recessions during that time. Bear markets often go hand in hand with a slowing economy, but a declining market doesn't necessarily mean a recession is looming.

**4matic** · 06-13-2022, 02:37 PM

2/10 is inverted right now

**Stu Gotz** · 06-13-2022, 04:54 PM

So this is interesting. There is a high probability that the fed raises rates 75 bps next Tuesday. Does the market react favorably thinking the Fed has this under control, or we are good and f****ed and the damage is done and we continue to sell off?

**JimmyCarter** · 06-13-2022, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

Does the market react favorably thinking the Fed has this under control, or we are good and f****ed and the damage is done and we continue to sell off?

Yes

**Bunion 2020** · 06-13-2022, 05:06 PM

Recession or inflation? Which do Americans prefer?

**Stu Gotz** · 06-13-2022, 05:07 PM

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

Yes

Lol.

**Cono Este** · 06-13-2022, 05:09 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

So this is interesting. There is a high probability that the fed raises rates 75 bps next Tuesday. Does the market react favorably thinking the Fed has this under control, or we are good and f****ed and the damage is done and we continue to sell off?

We’re fucked.

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**Stu Gotz** · 06-13-2022, 05:13 PM

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

Recession or inflation? Which do Americans prefer?

I don’t prefer it, but I think we’re going to get both for a bit.

**JimmyCarter** · 06-13-2022, 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

Recession or inflation?

Stagflation

**Mazderati** · 06-13-2022, 06:53 PM

I'm not interested enough to look but it seems like selling before Fed meetings is a thing.

**Rideski** · 06-13-2022, 07:18 PM

I have some high risk mutual funds. Probably should have moved them.

**fastfred** · 06-13-2022, 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

This will settle down in a week. All the money managers will be heading to the Hamptons and Nantucket next week for the summer. HS graduations are this week, then off to the beach.

But, if this keeps up much longer than that maybe the Fed won't need to raise rates. So, we have that.

at least someone around here understands whats going on as if this is all some great big real things
all the office jocks will be getting hand jobs on fireisland next week and they will forget about all this crazy shit

but then when the days start cooling off and getting shorter well that'll be october and they'll be back in the office trying not to fuck shit up but they will

**Hott Butt Mud** · 06-13-2022, 07:39 PM

Stock market tanking is all a distraction for the upcoming indictment of Donald J. Trump. It's meant to distract and prevent people from hoarding and feeling too weak to start a violent rebellion.

eh?

**schuss** · 06-13-2022, 07:56 PM

Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud

Stock market tanking is all a distraction for the upcoming indictment of Donald J. Trump. It's meant to distract and prevent people from hoarding and feeling too weak to start a violent rebellion.

eh?

Has anything in the last 5 years given you the impression that people plan well anymore?

**406** · 06-13-2022, 08:21 PM

Originally Posted by CarlMega

What's the marker for putting sideline money into indexes?

A price mark? An event? An intersection?

Curious how ppl with cash on the sides & a belief that it's overvalued now would choose their opportunity for eventual long holding. (vs. cost avging)

I'm doing few shares VOO every $10 drop. Planning to go bigger at $300 and maybe $250.

Probably "rebalance" 401k to 100% S&P when around Aug 2019 or 2020 level. Will see if I'm that patient and paying attention.

**BobMc** · 06-13-2022, 09:03 PM

Lee, were your XOM calls June 10, or later? Either way today was great, I was assigned Friday at $97. Was paid $106 for that, when it cratered today I sold a $97 June 17 put for $280. Either gonna be back in my shares I got out at $98.06 for $94.20 or keep the $280. If it goes below $94.20 I won’t care as I’d have been holding anyways.

Still watching CCL, seems a never ending series of people buying it on the Carnival cruising social media boards, all claiming it’s “on sale.” Been seeing an increasing number of complaints relating to short staffing and labor shortages and cost cutting measures to go along with that. Decided I’m not a buyer at any price, I don’t see them getting off the massive debt they’ve incurred.

I took about a 4% haircut today, led by my energy stocks. I’m still feeling pretty good about most of my holdings. I have a few in mind to double down on if I indeed keep the XOM put premium and re-allocation is necessary. Seems it feels like a good time to have some cash ready.

**Cono Este** · 06-13-2022, 09:14 PM

Originally Posted by fastfred

at least someone around here understands whats going on as if this is all some great big real things
all the office jocks will be getting hand jobs on fireisland next week and they will forget about all this crazy shit

but then when the days start cooling off and getting shorter well that'll be october and they'll be back in the office trying not to fuck shit up but they will

Even so. This is pretty unusual vol for june. Small chance the hand job could be canceled in July.

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**4matic** · 06-13-2022, 09:30 PM

Quarterly expiration this week has a hand in all this volatility.

**Brock Landers** · 06-14-2022, 06:45 AM

Front end pricing in 3.75-4 by Feb. 10y and out may get to 350.

I think we will see- whether through actions this week or the language setting up July, fed isn’t going to make the same mistake they made with the “transitory” language. Big big rate hikes.

Still like longer bonds!