Is the stock market going to tank?

[Tippster]

[liv2ski]

^^^^^ Thanks tip, that was funez

[liv2ski]

This has got to be bullish for the economy.

"The bank delays have left homes in the delinquency process longer. U.S. homeowners facing foreclosure averaged 587 days without making a mortgage payment in June, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS), a real estate information company in Jacksonville, Florida.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homeow...&asset=&ccode=

Shiiiiit, if your not making a mtg payment, think of all the cash freed up to go out to dinner, buy Ipads, skis, whatever. Great job stimulating the economy banks. And to think nobody is giving you guys any love.

[up an down]

4matic.. whats your opinion at the moment? i decided to get back in 1 week ago.. bought some vanguard ETFS.. EDV, VGLT,BLV,VPU....so far so good except for VPU..

[4matic]

4matic.. whats your opinion at the moment? i decided to get back in 1 week ago.. bought some vanguard ETFS.. EDV, VGLT,BLV,VPU....so far so good except for VPU..

It's bad.

If you want some positives:

1. DAX index did not make a new low today and is currently 7% off it's 52 week low made last month

2. SP 500 futures tested their low of August 9th today and rallied sharply.

3. Gasoline and core commodity prices are falling. that will help Holiday spending and corporate profits.

4. Car Sales are strong.

5. Interest rates are low and dividend rates on SP500 higher than bonds which historically have worked out in favor of equity.

Far more strong negatives:

1. High yield bonds getting mercilessly pummeled. Even with low default rates.

2. Emerging markets (Hong Kong) completely falling apart (Hong Kong is currency related)

3. Credit Default Rates up everywhere. Even in Germany.

4. Volatility rates stubbornly high indicating long term uncertainty.

5. Dollar strength. Although, dollar strength has not always been bearish for US equity.

6. Continued gridlock.

7. Potential major bank failures.

My opinion now: Nothing to be positive about technically other than the chance of a double bottom in the futures. SP500 can easily drop to 1020 on down to 950 if that doesn't hold. Overall, it depends on your time frame and risk profile. I'm a little underweight stock here but overweight small and mid-cap which is a bad mistake. I'm looking to buy Emerging Markets, Germany, and add to Small and Mid-cap on further weakness. May buy some high yield bonds too.


Hong Kong has been getting annihilated since Bill Ackman announced the big trade on HK$.

Time frame and risk tolerance. Good luck!

[Benny Profane]

The worst bear signal is the rumor that GS had such a bad 3Q that there may not be a bonus next year. Makes Benny sad.

[JimmyCarter]

I think the worst bear signal is that 4matic is starting to sound bearish

[up an down]

It's bad.

If you want some positives:

1. DAX index did not make a new low today and is currently 7% off it's 52 week low made last month

2. SP 500 futures tested their low of August 9th today and rallied sharply.

3. Gasoline and core commodity prices are falling. that will help Holiday spending and corporate profits.

4. Car Sales are strong.

5. Interest rates are low and dividend rates on SP500 higher than bonds which historically have worked out in favor of equity.

Far more strong negatives:

1. High yield bonds getting mercilessly pummeled. Even with low default rates.

2. Emerging markets (Hong Kong) completely falling apart (Hong Kong is currency related)

3. Credit Default Rates up everywhere. Even in Germany.

4. Volatility rates stubbornly high indicating long term uncertainty.

5. Dollar strength. Although, dollar strength has not always been bearish for US equity.

6. Continued gridlock.

7. Potential major bank failures.

My opinion now: Nothing to be positive about technically other than the chance of a double bottom in the futures. SP500 can easily drop to 1020 on down to 950 if that doesn't hold. Overall, it depends on your time frame and risk profile. I'm a little underweight stock here but overweight small and mid-cap which is a bad mistake. I'm looking to buy Emerging Markets, Germany, and add to Small and Mid-cap on further weakness. May buy some high yield bonds too.


Hong Kong has been getting annihilated since Bill Ackman announced the big trade on HK$.

Time frame and risk tolerance. Good luck!

thanks! the negatives are so far positive for 3/4 of my portfolio. i decided to put some $ where my mind is re the Eu situation.. i am limited to vanguard (my SEP IRA) and chose some bond ETFs and a utilities ETF so i can get out quickly if stocks start another rally. maybe today?... bernanke talk coincided with todays low..... so far

[Hugh Conway]

I think the worst bear signal is that 4matic is starting to sound bearish

........

[HuckBunny]

Yep, but its a good time to buy!

[LeeLau]

I think the worst bear signal is that 4matic is starting to sound bearish

That initiates a flying wasabi contrarian fibonaravioli STRONG BUY signal of all the best of the best of the US economy - medical insurers and insurers of financial derivatives. BUY BUY BUY

[4matic]

I think the worst bear signal is that 4matic is starting to sound bearish

Nice reversal today!

[up an down]

Nice reversal today!

yeah, you jinxed the bears i got out of my bond funds midday,, hanging on to the utility fund. hoping to buy back bonds when EU fear returns

[retirwntm]

That initiates a flying wasabi contrarian fibonaravioli STRONG BUY signal of all the best of the best of the US economy - medical insurers and insurers of financial derivatives. BUY BUY BUY

a fibanaravioli? mama mia!

[Benny Profane]

when EU fear returns

It went somewhere?

[Mazderati]

Anyone want to posit a guess on the likelihood of a BAC reverse split?

[LeeLau]

EU Fear is back! MS out of the money puts are paying out. Burn baby burn

[4matic]

I bought stock today.

[LeeLau]

A keeper from Yahoo Finance on Groupon, Regretfully borrows are hard to come by so no possibility to add. Options will trade soon but my guess are premiums will lead to ass-rapeage

It will lose an average of one dollar 3 out of the 5 business days per week until it hits ipo list price of $20 bucks per share.

In January it will drop below ipo list price.

My advice to those who bought over $20.

Guys, If you have a long enough neck, bend over and kiss your hairy a_s goodbye. For the ladies, bend over take a peek at what you may be selling to make your mortgage payments. Herman Cain still has room for another accuser. Maybe you can get a book deal out of the scandal.

[liv2ski]

I bought stock today.

Of course you did Ready for another ass pounding? It is just around the corner Listening to you last time it tanked was pretty entertaining stuff. Bring on the funez bitchez.

[4matic]

Of course you did Ready for another ass pounding? It is just around the corner Listening to you last time it tanked was pretty entertaining stuff. Bring on the funez bitchez.

5% of equity split in equal amounts to small cap, mid cap, and junk bonds today. Junk held up well today and that's a good sign for equity. I added 10% to equity and emerging markets below 1150. So far it's worked out well. I would have deployed it sooner but I did a real estate deal last month and just got the equity account refunded. I was glad it tanked today for that reason and I hope it tanks tomorrow so I can deploy the rest of my cash. I'm back to overweight equity and especially overweight small and mid cap.

Overall, 1225 on SP500 is not that bad and with my portfolio yield at 3% I'm pretty optimistic.

Time will tell. Glad my dealings amuse you but, at least, I can say, I put my money where my mouth is. Elvis has a song for you. Keep dooming.

[liv2ski]

I put my money where my mouth is. Keep dooming.

I put my shorts where my mouth is too. You like to go long, I think in this environment it is wiser to pick your short days here and there and sit on the sidelines the rest of the time.
Hang Seng 18,963.89 -1,050.54 -5.25% Coming to a USA market soon

[SkiCougar]

I put my shorts where my mouth is too. You like to go long, I think in this environment it is wiser to pick your short days here and there and sit on the sidelines the rest of the time.
Hang Seng 18,963.89 -1,050.54 -5.25% Coming to a USA market soon

i dont think it'll tank until 2012, should end year on rally it started in october after 5 months of decline. its holding support now, but in 2012; i'm looking to start shorting too.

here's the latest gloomy data:
Shipping worse now than during the 2008 financial crisis. Shipping is a great measure on the trade of goods between countries and shows the economic activity going on between companies and people buying those companies products. If that’s down under the 2008 low, it shows that it’s still time to be cautious when thinking about your short to mid-term economic future plans.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...hD9QU.facebook

and, Q3, GDP growth; what it really was. It was 2.5%, which sounds good until you hear the details. Consumers spent their money on healthcare + utilities(remember the heat wave), not goods like new furniture or laptops which would promote growth. Consumers savings also dropped from 5.1% to 4.1%, which means people are using more of their savings for expenses, because more jobs and pay raises aren’t happening. We’ve got a long way to go for a real recovery.

http://m.ibtimes.com/gdp-growth-clos...my-239678.html

[LeeLau]

http://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/y...024014390.html

Read the comments. Refreshing. Maybe the supply of sheeple longs will dry up but that's a good thing long-term imo

[DougW]

I bought stock today.

so did I , yesterday that is, all Euro CS and VE

I bought in Oct and sold abit into rally in Nov. Bought at 1 sold at 2.65 on one stock.