I think shits getting better. (economy)

[BigDaddy]

Hey, just like Hogan's Heroes. Things look grim from the outside when you are peering through the barbed wire at the German Shepherds and the krauts with machine guns and the SS officers and guardtowers. But inside, Kinch has a radio in the coffee pot, LeBeau is whipping up French pastries, Hogan is fucking the hot blonde secretary, and you can put on a fake mustache and go through the tunnel for a pint at the Hofbrau anytime you like.

It's all good, mein freund!

Quoted for it's pure awesomeness.


As a business owner, right now we are stressed, but I have never been so busy looking at potential projects. If we get half of what we bid, or even 25%, we are going for a ride.

Adding to the bull theory, our little rental property in VT is off the hook... booked wall to wall.

Not sure it means a lot, but we never had it so crazy.

[Benny Profane]

Don't fight the FED.



Glad to see all of you upper middle class white guys are doing well. Nothing better to do but debate paddle vs stick shift and then ski all day. Boo hoo.

[rideit]

3. I know exactly what my avatar means.

.

No, you don't. If you did, you wouldn't tread on it.

[Cono Este]

I hate to take Benny douchebags side but I think this uptick masks serious problems with the US economy. I don't particularly care because i've got no kids and could give a shit about the next generation. Dealflow is increasing and i increasingly turn down more and more work which would impede a lifetime of hedonistic biking and skiing so yah, anecdotally and personally it is getting better but its getting better in the sense that the old hooker who should have been shipped out to pasture got a ham reconditioning kind of better.

all I can hope for is that the Chinese economy/bubble doesn't blow up for at least another 10 years and that it continues to support the Canuck economy. Oh and perhaps if they allow naked shorting of listed Chinese companies -that would be wonderful.

But to answer your question seriously Cono. Yes in this short term things are looking better

CAD still looks good. Id stick with it.

[JoeStrummer]

Don't fight the FED.

Glad to see all of you upper middle class white guys are doing well.

Hey, in a trickle-down economy doesn't this mean better tips for you? A rising tide floats all boats!

[Downbound Train]

No, you don't. If you did, you wouldn't tread on it.

Ummmmm. Yes I do.

[Spats]

So just sit tight and wait for the next ten years and hope everything goes to shit just so I can say "I told you so?"

Good plan.

The Fed has pumped $trillions into the economy (by giving it to the biggest multinational banks).

Don't fight the Fed.

[huckbucket]

This take from some random guy on Seeking Alpha is dead on IMHO.

link

-----------------------------------------------------------
If you have any lingering doubts regarding the Fed's bias towards sustaining bubbles and being late on fighting inflation, the latest release of the 2005 Fed meeting minutes should help you see more clearly.

There's some good humor and cynicism here which certainly deserves respect. It's also obvious that many Fed officials and economists, including Greenspan and Geithner, had by 2005 at the latest realized the bubble in housing and the systemic risks posed by big banks (and Lehman and Bear Stearns in particular). Impressive foresight.

But the good news stops there. Were the bubble and risks just a joke to them? They saw it quite well, had some good laughs and proceeded to do nothing.

When Bernanke said that it takes 15 minutes to raise rates, he was being too modest. The final tally to vote on the decision, I'm sure, takes at most one minute. But this is an insult to the questioner and the audience, isn't it? The real question is how long it will take between inflation rising and them seeing it, then making the decision to act on it, then actually taming inflation. Instead of providing an honest assessment, Bernanke pulled a Clinton "what-is-is" on us.

I'll be waiting anxiously in 2013 to see the release of 2008 meetings, but even more so of their 2011 meetings. I expect them to see very clearly, with their impressive intellect and good sense of humor, the evidence of inflation in everything except housing, growing bubbles in commodities and stocks, economic polarization both domestically and globally, etc etc, then make some jokes about it, have some good hearty laughs and do nothing.

There's so much money in the system it's scary. Non-real, hot money looking for real return. Everybody knowing anything about the market knows this. The Fed, of course, knows this well. Every bubble-bust cycle creates some winners and losers, but one definite loser is the vast majority of the middle class, who have little chance of benefiting meaningfully in the bubble phase and are inevitably hurt in the bust phase. Every bubble-bust cycle knocks a portion of the middle class a few steps down the economic ladder while minting some super-rich. The Fed, of course, knows this well. I'm sure there's a joke there somewhere. They'll laugh about it, and do nothing.

I don't know when or how the bubble will go bust. But here's my plan:

In the short term, I try to resist the urge to short stocks. Lots of money still need to get into position, e.g., the hot money that got pushed out from emerging markets.
Someday, somebody will finish positioning and will call WSJ/CNBC/Bloomberg; the world will be horrified to find out there's a crisis all of a sudden. I'll be deep in that trade.
I'll accumulate some gold (e.g. GLD) and agricultural commodities (e.g. DBA) from pullbacks. These may not necessarily do well during the bust phase, depending on the nature of the excuses and the scope. But they will do well in the inevitable inflation flare-up.
No matter how confident Bernanke is about his ability to fight inflation in time, I'm exactly as confident that he'll be too late. In fact, inflation is already here. Nah, just kidding.

[axebiker]

I'd agree with montanaskier -- gas prices will kill any rally. I've seen the pricing on all the petroleum based products I purchase start to spike already. Add a weak dollar against Chinese products, and we're dicked. Inflation isn't on the horizon; it's standing at your back door, and about to nail your wife.

BTW...why hasn't Barry filled my gas tank yet, and why the hell isn't gas $2??? The fucker promised...

[Toadman]

Well the transportation sector did very well last year. Especially if you compare it to 2009, 2008 years. Fm airlines to railroads, the numbers were most impressive. China is really ramping up the export machine. Let's see what Hu tells Obama about where he can stick his little currency complaint. Put it in the suggestion box, and throw it out with the human rights complaints, I'm guessing. Looks to be a banner start to the import/export season in 2011. Bit of a hiccup with the Chinese New Year, and then the Chinese Dragon Export Machine will make Bernanke's printing presses the butt of every joke in Shanghai.

Tough for the Chinese to buy anything with those IOU's though. Maybe they will buy up more Spanish and Euro debt to diversify....

Municpal and state debt is a big worry though. I actually think NYC might just sell the Brooklyn Bridge, for realz this time.

[Conundrum]

Be careful, your hateful rhetoric may motivate another left wing kook to go on a shooting spree.

Most left wing kooks I know are too stoned to leave their homes. I'm all for enough motivation for them to reach their mailboxes.

[Conundrum]

Either way, the Gadsden's Flag guy should really be questioning whether or not he should A>change his avatar, B>check the mailbox for a Publisher's Clearinghouse Sweepstakes, or C>admit that a night in the sack with Sarah Palin wouldn't be so bad as long as Todd watched.

[ass-to-mouth]

wait til gas hits 4.50....shit will slow down again.

pfft...stop being such a doom & gloomer.

the ugly asian broad on cnbc keeps telling me that higher energy & food prices are the signs of a growing economy. it's good news!!!

[axebiker]

Ironically enough, the local news just commented this morning on how fuel prices are already hitting home. People stop doing things like going out to eat when gas prices rise. I know that's usually the first place I cut back. I also don't make the trips to ski either. It all trickles down. When gas goes up, people cut back.

At least the envirotards will be happy.

[Cono Este]

FUEL IS CHEAP IN AMERICA> STOP BITCHING

MAYBE IF IT GOES HIGH ENOUGH WE MIGHT ACTUALLY DO THINGS DIFFERENTLY.

RAIL IS AN ALTERNATIVE IN THIS COUNTRY> SO DONT GIVE ME THE TRUCKING BULLSHIT< HELL WE MIGHT EVEN RELY ON OURSELVES MORE>AIRLINES ARE IN GOOD SHIP> I DONT BUY IT>

BID IT TO 6 USD A GALLON THEN I MIGHT CARE

THAT BEING SAID< SELL THE NEWS THOUGH FOR NOW>WERE TALKING HISTORY HERE

[ArmadaBC]

Ironically enough, the local news just commented this morning on how fuel prices are already hitting home. People stop doing things like going out to eat when gas prices rise. I know that's usually the first place I cut back. I also don't make the trips to ski either. It all trickles down. When gas goes up, people cut back.

At least the envirotards will be happy.

Gas prices right now I think are mostly driven by speculator's, the money pool needs some where to put it's money right now and oil is an old favorite.

Once the price per gallon hits something like 4/4.50 they cash out because at that point the entire economy starts slowing down and fucks the speculator's more generally.

The last couple gas spike's had very little to do with actual supply which for the most part is unchanged year to year.

[huckbucket]

Gas prices right now I think are mostly driven by speculator's, the money pool needs some where to put it's money right now and oil is an old favorite.

Once the price per gallon hits something like 4/4.50 they cash out because at that point the entire economy starts slowing down and fucks the speculator's more generally.

The last couple gas spike's had very little to do with actual supply which for the most part is unchanged year to year.

That reminds me ... the last time we went through $4/gallon gas and determined that it was mainly due to speculation, I thought that we were gonna do away with that shit.

[axebiker]

I didn't say there was a supply issue, but prices are indeed rising. It'll kill the "recovery". Seems a lot of people still don't have jobs...that's how I would determine whether a recovery is really occurring.

Yes... I remember Barry promising an end to high gas prices based on speculative buying. Just another fail.

CONO ESTE - >FUCK OFF. >> Rail isn't viable if it can't pay for itself. The Twin Cities is proving it daily. Commuter lines are only viable with existing infrastructure, and the Twin Cities buried all theirs in favor of buses years ago (which operate at a 30%+ loss currently). Now the Lefties want billion dollar train lines again that will need to be subsidized over 50% of their operating costs and you still have to drive to get to them. There's your fucking history lesson, douche.

[grrrr]

Speculation moves the prices up and down on a short term basis, but demand is what is going to drive us off the roads. Oil usage in India and China is going to fuck us over but good.

As far as "shit's getting better", my girlfriend is still out of a job. So's my regular BC partner. My next door neighbor just got evicted because he couldn't make his $600 mortgage payment. Things ain't rosy around here.

[grrrr]

Roads don't pay for themselves either dumbass

You just get the bilk the rest of the country for the roads

We should up the gas tax until it pays for the roads. Right now, that is about 1/3 of our property tax, just for county roads.

[Moeghoul]

Compared to a year ago, things are "better" depending on who you talk to. Still waiting for those bush tax cuts for the rich to mop up all that UE out there. Isn't that the theory? Yeah....right.

[gunit130]

2008 REPEAT IN 2011

2012 = REPEAT OF 2009

[iscariot]

I didn't say there was a supply issue, but prices are indeed rising. It'll kill the "recovery". Seems a lot of people still don't have jobs...that's how I would determine whether a recovery is really occurring.

Yes... I remember Barry promising an end to high gas prices based on speculative buying. Just another fail.

CONO ESTE - >FUCK OFF. >> Rail isn't viable if it can't pay for itself. The Twin Cities is proving it daily. Commuter lines are only viable with existing infrastructure, and the Twin Cities buried all theirs in favor of buses years ago (which operate at a 30%+ loss currently). Now the Lefties want billion dollar train lines again that will need to be subsidized over 50% of their operating costs and you still have to drive to get to them. There's your fucking history lesson, douche.

You may want to do some research into the massive economic, tax, and environmental subsidies given to oil companies...

[Rip'nStick]

I remember Barry promising an end to high gas prices based on speculative buying. Just another fail.... The Twin Cities ... the Lefties....

Another conservatard from Minnesota, go figure. Say hi to DBT.

[iceman]

So funny seeing the right hope for a surge in gas prices in order to derail an economic upturn just so that the Dems won't get any credit. Funny, and not exactly patriotic. Rooting for America to fail: So Republican right now.

It's a rising tide and you guys are trying to drill holes in all the boats. Awesome. I can't decide if they more resemble a kid with his hand caught in the cookie jar or cockroaches scrambling because someone turned a light on.