I think shits getting better. (economy)

[WICS]

demand is what is going to drive us off the roads.

^^^^^^^^^^
x2

[ArmadaBC]

Speculation moves the prices up and down on a short term basis, but demand is what is going to drive us off the roads. Oil usage in India and China is going to fuck us over but good.

There are self limiting factors at play in China and India, they do not have the infrastructure to support more bbl/day nor the gdp/per capita. GDP per capita would have to increase 8 fold for the Chinese and nearly 14 times for India to have the same $$ per person as the US.

Additionally they do not have the road networks necessary to increase bbl/day in a way that drastically alters crude prices over the immediate term.

Obviously all of this is changing as the two countries develop but I don't think its anything that we don't know about or that will happen at such a pace that everything grinds to a halt. As oil gets expensive people start looking towards alternatives and at 4/4.50 a gallon alot of alternatives come into play.

[Gordyman]

Be careful, your hateful rhetoric may motivate another left wing kook to go on a shooting spree.

Only right wing kooks are supposed to go on shooting sprees.

[WICS]

["Quote"]

"The word ‘developed’ contains an important assumption: that a historical process known as development ... not only exists throughout the world, it culminates in a known end which has already been reached.

"This word implies that countries like France, Canada and our own happy United States of America have reached the end of history, the summit of human achievement, stable and enduring arrangements in political economy that are unlikely to change much going forward.

"Nothing could be stupider or less historically defensible than this belief, yet few assumptions are more widespread among the world’s intelligentsia, planners and, especially, bureaucrats.

"Technological change has never been moving faster or with greater force than it is today as the implications of one revolution in IT after another work themselves out; the foundations of the global economic and political order are being shaken by the dramatic rise of new powers.

"Yet somehow many of us believe that the western world is an end state: the comfy couch at the end of history rather than the launching pad for another great, disruptive leap into the unknown."


[/"Quote"]

[Gordyman]

I've heard the beer party is coming strong in 2012.

[ilikecandy]

There are self limiting factors at play in China and India, they do not have the infrastructure to support more bbl/day nor the gdp/per capita. GDP per capita would have to increase 8 fold for the Chinese and nearly 14 times for India to have the same $$ per person as the US.

Additionally they do not have the road networks necessary to increase bbl/day in a way that drastically alters crude prices over the immediate term.

Obviously all of this is changing as the two countries develop but I don't think its anything that we don't know about or that will happen at such a pace that everything grinds to a halt. As oil gets expensive people start looking towards alternatives and at 4/4.50 a gallon alot of alternatives come into play.

That implies that their demand is based on market forces. The last oil bubble was just them building up reserves.

[ass-to-mouth]

So funny seeing the right hope for a surge in gas prices in order to derail an economic upturn just so that the Dems won't get any credit. Funny, and not exactly patriotic. Rooting for America to fail: So Republican right now.

It's a rising tide and you guys are trying to drill holes in all the boats. Awesome. I can't decide if they more resemble a kid with his hand caught in the cookie jar or cockroaches scrambling because someone turned a light on.

[Moeghoul]

China's now the worlds largest car market in the world, many of which are to first time users, and their road network is growing hugely. Similar, on a smaller scale so far, in India. That consumptions going up up up.

Yeah, they have a buttload of highways going to.........nowhere. Or empty pre-built cities. Chinese have taken spec housing to a whole new level.

[ilikecandy]

["Quote"]

"The word ‘developed’ contains an important assumption: that a historical process known as development ... not only exists throughout the world, it culminates in a known end which has already been reached.

"This word implies that countries like France, Canada and our own happy United States of America have reached the end of history, the summit of human achievement, stable and enduring arrangements in political economy that are unlikely to change much going forward.

"Nothing could be stupider or less historically defensible than this belief, yet few assumptions are more widespread among the world’s intelligentsia, planners and, especially, bureaucrats.

"Technological change has never been moving faster or with greater force than it is today as the implications of one revolution in IT after another work themselves out; the foundations of the global economic and political order are being shaken by the dramatic rise of new powers.

"Yet somehow many of us believe that the western world is an end state: the comfy couch at the end of history rather than the launching pad for another great, disruptive leap into the unknown."


[/"Quote"]

Well in the context of energy demand increases rapidly with GDP (developing), then at a certain point levels off while GDP continues to grow (developed)

[Cono Este]

So funny seeing the right hope for a surge in gas prices in order to derail an economic upturn just so that the Dems won't get any credit. Funny, and not exactly patriotic. Rooting for America to fail: So Republican right now.

It's a rising tide and you guys are trying to drill holes in all the boats. Awesome. I can't decide if they more resemble a kid with his hand caught in the cookie jar or cockroaches scrambling because someone turned a light on.

I'd give him some credit if he'd have pushed through some more fuel taxes so that demand would cool off and those greedy arabs never got to see 100 a barrel again. That would have been cool..

[ArmadaBC]

China's now the worlds largest car market in the world, many of which are to first time users, and their road network is growing hugely. Similar, on a smaller scale so far, in India. That consumptions going up up up.

I'm not saying that market is stagnant or that we aren't going to have to figure out how to get more than 90million bbl/per day out of the ground. I just think we know about it and have the ability to deal with it.

Its not like China and India can bump from roughly 10million a day to 20million a day over night and thats the kind of event that would cause the kinds of catastrophes people talk about. Until your average Indian makes more than 4,000 a year its going to be tough for them to move out of the Haiti/Sri Lanka levels of vehicle ownership.

[iceman]

I'd give him some credit if he'd have pushed through some more fuel taxes so that demand would cool off and those greedy arabs never got to see 100 a barrel again. That would have been cool..

Given the freedom of a second term, which suddenly seems much more possible (although still far from probable), you might see just such a move.

Unless the cockroaches first manage to sink the kids' boats at high tide with a drilled cookie jar, or whatever.

[LeeLau]

I'd give him some credit if he'd have pushed through some more fuel taxes so that demand would cool off and those greedy arabs never got to see 100 a barrel again. That would have been cool..

Economic sense but political suicide no? I got the impression that most North Americans love their cheap oil unequivocally. I'm long oil to hedge my own personal consumption.

[4matic]

Economic sense but political suicide no? I got the impression that most North Americans love their cheap oil unequivocally. I'm long oil to hedge my own personal consumption.

Would RB Unleaded Gas be a better hedge?

[LeeLau]

Nymex crude - abundantly liquid! But as a reflection of a bit of optimism I'm no longer long disaster

[RootSkier]

Benny really took a beating on those orange juice futures.

[Downbound Train]

but demand is what is going to drive us off the roads.

You mean our self induced lack of supply is going to drive us off the roads.

[ArmadaBC]

I'm not sure the point of using 2 countries that are 1-2% of China/India in population and similarly comparable in land mass as your benchmark for vehicle ownership.

serious lulz

That isn't my benchmark its the rate per capita of vehicle ownership in India, so when you see a 200% gain increase in car ownership that's certainly a problem. However when you realize where they are coming from and combine that with the fact that they are still relativity poor as shit you realize we still have some time on the clock.

This isn't entropy in the universe, its getting 10million more out of the ground in the next 10 years while reducing our usage elsewhere where its more feasible until we get to the next stage.

If you have another plan, please enlighten me as I can't see any good reason for us all to go back to running around with leafs covering our dicks and trying not to die from something stupid like measles.

[axebiker]

You may want to do some research into the massive economic, tax, and environmental subsidies given to oil companies...

I'm aware. I don't like susidizing anything that can't make it on it's own. Especially a train in Minneapolis/St Paul that does nothing for the majority of the people footing the bill through property taxes. This is just a feel good gift to the tax suckers. It will not do anything for the traffic and they'll still have to run buses on parallel routes.

The crux of the issue I was getting at is that they destroyed an existing rail system to use buses. Now they want to go the other way. The roads are already built and the state is broke. This makes no sense at all.

[axebiker]

Roads don't pay for themselves either dumbass

You just get the bilk the rest of the country for the roads

Huh...whaddya know...

Yeah, I know that, but if you think the gas tax is only used for roads, you aren't as smart as you pretend to be. I pay plenty taxes in licensing and gas taxes, so I have earned the right to gripe.

[axebiker]

Another conservatard from Minnesota, go figure. Say hi to DBT.

Libertarian.

[Gordyman]

Eventually the powers of greed will push it too far and the Walmartians will rise. Bloody civil war will ensue, pitting the corrupt against the dangerously mutated. The sane and reasonably intelligent will seek refuge in the wilderness while the two forces battle in the cities. The conquering army will be diminished and spent, leaving the sane and reasonably intelligent to come back from the wilds and begin a real civilization.

Oh yeah! You'll see. And I won't even brag about predicting it.

[Moeghoul]

Eventually the powers of greed will push it too far and the Walmartians will rise. Bloody civil war will ensue, pitting the corrupt against the dangerously mutated. The sane and reasonably intelligent will seek refuge in the wilderness while the two forces battle in the cities. The conquering army will be diminished and spent, leaving the sane and reasonably intelligent to come back from the wilds and begin a real civilization.

Oh yeah! You'll see. And I won't even brag about predicting it.

Battle in the cities? For what? Everything will be depleted in a few days. They'll be roaming the countryside for succulent intelligent brains.

[JimmyCarter]

Too much optimism in this thread. Needs moar ZH!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aus...e-very-painful

A recent article in the New York Times did a good job of summarizing the financial pain that many state governments are feeling right now. Unfortunately, as bad as the budget shortfalls are for this year, they are projected to be even worse in 2012....

While state revenues — shrunken as a result of the recession — are finally starting to improve somewhat, federal stimulus money that had propped up state budgets is vanishing and costs are rising, all of which has left state leaders bracing for what is next. For now, states have budget gaps of $26 billion, by some estimates, and foresee shortfalls of at least $82 billion as they look to next year’s budgets.

So what is the solution? Well, for state and local politicians from coast to coast, the answer to these financial problems is to impose austerity measures. Of course they never, ever use the term "austerity measures", but that is exactly what they are.

The following are 22 signs that austerity has already arrived in America and that it is going to be very, very painful....

#1 The financial manager of the Detroit Public Schools, Robert Bobb, has submitted a proposal to close half of all the schools in the city. His plan envisions class sizes of up to 62 students in the remaining schools.

#2 Detroit Mayor Dave Bing wants to cut off 20 percent of the entire city from police and trash services in order to save money.

#3 Things are so tight in California that Governor Jerry Brown is requiring approximately 48,000 state workers to turn in their government-paid cell phones by June 1st.

#4 New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is proposing to completely eliminate 20 percent of state agencies.

#5 New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has closed 20 fire departments at night and is proposing layoffs in every single city agency.

#6 In the state of Illinois, lawmakers recently pushed through a 66 percent increase in the personal income tax rate.

#7 The town of Prichard, Alabama came up with a unique way to battle their budget woes recently. They simply stopped sending out pension checksto retired workers. Of course this is a violation of state law, but town officials insist that they just do not have the money.

#8 New Jersey Governor Chris Christie recently purposely skipped a scheduled 3.1 billion dollar payment to that state's pension system.

#9 The state of New Jersey is in such bad shape that they still are facing a $10 billion budget deficit for this year even after cutting a billion dollars from the education budget and laying off thousands of teachers.

#10 Due to a very serious budget shortfall, the city of Newark, New Jersey recently made very significant cuts to the police force. Subsequently, there has been a very substantial spike in the crime rate.

#11 The city of Camden, New Jersey is "the second most dangerous city in America", but because of a huge budget shortfall they recently felt forced to lay off half of the city police force.

#12 Philadelphia, Baltimore and Sacramento have all instituted "rolling brownouts" during which various city fire stations are shut down on a rotating basis.

#13 In Georgia, the county of Clayton recently eliminated its entire public bus system in order to save 8 million dollars.

#14 Oakland, California Police Chief Anthony Batts has announced that due to severe budget cuts there are a number of crimes that his department will simply not be able to respond to any longer. The crimes that the Oakland police will no longer be responding to include grand theft, burglary, car wrecks, identity theft and vandalism.

#15 In Connecticut, the governor is asking state legislators to approve the biggest tax increase that the state has seen in two decades.

#16 All across the United States, conditions at many state parks, recreation areas and historic sites are deplorable at best. Some states have backlogs of repair projects that are now over a billion dollars long. The following is a quote from a recent MSNBC article about these project backlogs....

More than a dozen states estimate that their backlogs are at least $100 million. Massachusetts and New York's are at least $1 billion. Hawaii officials called park conditions "deplorable" in a December report asking for $50 million per year for five years to tackle a $240 million backlog that covers parks, trails and harbors.

#17 The state of Arizona recently announced that it has decided to stop paying for many types of organ transplants for people enrolled in its Medicaid program.

#18 Not only that, but Arizona is do desperate for money that they have even sold off the state capitol building, the state supreme court building and the legislative chambers.

#19 All over the nation, asphalt roads are actually being ground up and are being replaced with gravel because it is cheaper to maintain. The state of South Dakota has transformed over 100 miles of asphalt road into gravel over the past year, and 38 out of the 83 counties in the state of Michigan have transformed at least some of their asphalt roads into gravel roads.

#20 The state of Illinois is such a financial disaster zone that it is hard to even describe. According to 60 Minutes, the state of Illinois is six months behind on their bill payments. 60 Minutes correspondent Steve Croft asked Illinois state Comptroller Dan Hynes how many people and organizations are waiting to be paid by the state, and this is how Hynes responded....

"It's fair to say that there are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people waiting to be paid by the state."

#21 The city of Chicago is in such dire straits financially that officials there are actually toying with the idea of setting up a city-owned casino as a way to raise cash.

#22 Michigan Governor Rick Snyder is desperately looking for ways to cut the budget and he says that "hundreds of jurisdictions" in his state could go bankrupt over the next few years.

[WICS]

The 2010 vs 2009 data will be reported in March 2011.

(Edit to say that: Many procedures are NOT only elective in the Kardashian celebrity sense. I am sensitive that some people do get cancer et al.)

Meanwhile, below's 2009 vs 2008 story.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fewer Patients Undergo Knife For Beauty


The number of cosmetic-surgery procedures in the U.S. sagged for the second year in a row in 2009, according to an annual survey released Tuesday by a plastic surgeons' association. There were 10 million surgical and nonsurgical procedures last year, down 2% from 2008, according to a survey of 928 board-certified physicians by the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, a Garden Grove, Calif., group of plastic surgeons specializing in cosmetic surgery.

Driving the decline was a 17% drop in surgical procedures, to 1.5 million surgeries. "People just couldn't go for the big items," said Renato Saltz, the association's president. Tummy tucks, rhinosplasty and other surgical procedures can cost thousands of dollars more than nonsurgical measures, and they require a longer recovery.

Indeed, fear of job loss is the main reason people are putting off their surgeries, says Phil Haeck, president-elect of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, a separate group that has yet to release its annual survey. Dr. Haeck, a plastic surgeon in Seattle, said that marks a shift from last year when consumers cited cost as a primary hurdle. This year, "job priority is number one, cosmetic surgery is number two," he said.


Breast augmentation beat out liposuction as the most popular surgical procedure for the second year in a row. Dr. Saltz attributes renewed popularity of breast augmentation to the 2006 Food and Drug Administration decision to lift the ban on cosmetic use of silicone breast implants. Breast augmentations numbered 311,957 last year, down 12% from 2008; liposuctions numbered 283,735, down 17%.


Nonsurgical procedures, such as injections of Botox or hyaluronic acid to fill facial wrinkles, were flat, inching up 0.6% to 8.5 million.


Two surgeries are surging in popularity. Buttock lifts, which involve reshaping of the bottom, increased 25% to 3,024 procedures, and buttock augmentations increased 37%, to 4,996.

Increasingly, people want to reshape their rears after losing weight, Dr. Saltz said. The procedures, costing from $4,000 to $5,000, are fairly new, with both benefiting from recent technique improvements, he added.


As the economy recovers, more baby boomers are expected to seek procedures, and more physicians will likely offer nonsurgical options. Surgical procedures have increased by 50% since 1997, while non-surgical procedures grew 231%.