Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

I read this article today:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...et-revels.html

The labor force contracted by 661,000. This did not show up in the headline jobless rate because so many Americans dropped out of the system. The broad U6 category of unemployment rose to 17.3pc. That is the one that matters.

Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps a further exhibit of market infantilism.

The home foreclosure guillotine usually drops a year or so after people lose their job, and exhaust their savings. The local sheriff will escort them out of the door, often with some sympathy –– just like the police in 1932, mostly Irish Catholics who tithed 1pc of their pay for soup kitchens.

Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.

Judges are finding ways to block evictions. One magistrate in Minnesota halted a case calling the creditor "harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive". We are not far from a de facto moratorium in some areas.

This is how it ended between 1932 and 1934, when half the US states declared moratoria or "Farm Holidays". Such flexibility inoculated America's democracy against the appeal of Red Unions and Coughlin Fascists. The home seizures are occurring despite frantic efforts by the Obama administration to delay the process.

This policy is entirely justified given the scale of the social crisis. But it also masks the continued rot in the housing market, allows lenders to hide losses, and stores up an ever larger overhang of unsold properties. It takes heroic naivety to think the US housing market has turned the corner (apologies to Goldman Sachs, as always). The fuse has yet to detonate on the next mortgage bomb, $134bn (£83bn) of "option ARM" contracts due to reset violently upwards this year and next.

[4matic]

Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps a further exhibit of market infantilism.

.

Like I've been saying for months..

High unemployment in a low interest rate, steep yield curve, and low inflation environment is bullish for equity. Companies can use the economy as an excuse to downsize and then apply technology to improve productivity. It doesn't have much to do with Fed policy right now. Look at IBM making a 20 year high..

[Toadman]

Commercial Real Estate is being hit HARD. The super smart mega investors who were loaned billions to buy skyscrapers lost the gamble. Downtown SF is full of vacancies, Silicon Valley has a glut of an early 80s R&D buildings that nobody want to rent or buy. Its worse in the South Bay because office space is spread out over a huge area....from Palo Alto over to South San Jose....its not centralized like a proper downtown.

Dwntwn Seattle is going through similar CRE issues. I downsized our office after layoffs. The CRE rep for the bldg made a hard play to keep me in the bldg, that I'd been in for 10 years. 50% off, smaller space for even less. Basically went back to rent rates I was paying back in 2000.

[Spats]

Like I've been saying for months..

High unemployment in a low interest rate, steep yield curve, and low inflation environment is bullish for equity. Companies can use the economy as an excuse to downsize and then apply technology to improve productivity. It doesn't have much to do with Fed policy right now. Look at IBM making a 20 year high..

I can't find the article (apparently I forgot to bookmark it) but there was a great blog entry by some tech industry guy entitled basically "Who needs the middle class?" If anyone comes up with it, let me know (I've tried.)

He made the point that increasing productivity through technology simply means less people are necessary to do the same work -- and until you hit a post-scarcity level of technology, you're going to have more and more unemployment, because unemployed people don't have money to buy things and drive an economy that can support a middle class.

Seriously: what does the labor force do with millions of sociology and English and psychology and history majors? We don't need buildings full of middle management anymore, and the companies that figure out how to do without them undercut those that don't. They're ending up in call centers and service jobs...I know people who used to be graphic designers that can't get a job as a friggin' barista. That is no longer middle-class.

[4matic]

I can't find the article (apparently I forgot to bookmark it) but there was a great blog entry by some tech industry guy entitled basically "Who needs the middle class?" If anyone comes up with it, let me know (I've tried.)

He made the point that increasing productivity through technology simply means less people are necessary to do the same work -- and until you hit a post-scarcity level of technology, you're going to have more and more unemployment, because unemployed people don't have money to buy things and drive an economy that can support a middle class.

Seriously: what does the labor force do with millions of sociology and English and psychology and history majors? We don't need buildings full of middle management anymore, and the companies that figure out how to do without them undercut those that don't. They're ending up in call centers and service jobs...I know people who used to be graphic designers that can't get a job as a friggin' barista. That is no longer middle-class.

Yep, destruction of the middle class. Thank you supply side economics. Trickle Down indeed...

Cash for Caulkers! Seriously, I think it's a good idea. As is, fixing our roads, staffing our parks, repairing our bridges, etc.

[skier666]

Dwntwn Seattle is going through similar CRE issues. I downsized our office after layoffs. The CRE rep for the bldg made a hard play to keep me in the bldg, that I'd been in for 10 years. 50% off, smaller space for even less. Basically went back to rent rates I was paying back in 2000.

Just hit the wire....not too bad for a dedicated office building with 127K sq/ft. He may have problems filling vacancies but in the long run, if people continue moving to city centers as predicted, it may be a good investment.

Taiwanese real estate investor Steven Pan has finalized the purchase of 49 Stevenson St. for $24.2 million, the latest sign that San Francisco's long-dormant investment market is starting to come to life.

The $190-a-square-foot sale price represents a 40 percent decline for the value of the property, which the city currently assesses at $41 million. The seller was Invesco.

The sale price would be consistent with the other two similar second-tier downtown buildings that have sold in the last six months. In November the Shorenstein family bought 188 Spear St. for $170 a square foot, a 56 percent drop from the $385 a square foot, or $56.9 million, the city assessed the 147,000-square-foot property for the last fiscal year. Another Class A financial district building that sold last year, 250 Montgomery St., traded for $172 a square foot, also a 56 percent drop from its previous sale in 2006.

Another Class A financial district building that sold last year, 250 Montgomery St., traded for $172 a square foot, also a 56 percent drop from its previous sale in 2006.

The city's most recent office building sale was 211 Main St., which the CIM Group bought for $112 million, or $300 a square foot. That building fetched a higher price per square foot because it is 100 percent leased to Charles Schwab through 2018.

[Benny Profane]

I can't find the article (apparently I forgot to bookmark it) but there was a great blog entry by some tech industry guy entitled basically "Who needs the middle class?" If anyone comes up with it, let me know (I've tried.)

He made the point that increasing productivity through technology simply means less people are necessary to do the same work -- and until you hit a post-scarcity level of technology, you're going to have more and more unemployment, because unemployed people don't have money to buy things and drive an economy that can support a middle class.

Seriously: what does the labor force do with millions of sociology and English and psychology and history majors? We don't need buildings full of middle management anymore, and the companies that figure out how to do without them undercut those that don't. They're ending up in call centers and service jobs...I know people who used to be graphic designers that can't get a job as a friggin' barista. That is no longer middle-class.

Interesting. CNBC did a Biography thing about Henry Ford last night, and, as always when I read anything about him, I just have to think he was a brilliant and driven prick. It's as though he never wanted to deal with employees (including his son), but our system of capitalism has finally arrived to a point when the company really doesn't have to. Oh, yeah, there's serious legacy costs in the labor part of the ledger, but, you and I and the union members themselves will work that out over the next ten years as the industrial base of the world continues moving to China. Then what? Well, take a trip to Anytown in the midwest, radiating out from Detroit, that depended on manufacturing just twenty years ago, and you'll find that there is no middle class anymore. Well, no upper class either, for sure. But, more importantly, there is no future hope of a return of the middle class. Why?
The only viable model is to plow everything and farm.


edit: And I can't find the blog post, but it was a very intelligent rant that essentially asked why in the world anyone would pursue a career in academics these days by going deep in debt for a humanities doctorate. That, too, is a bleak world of employment with no middle class.

[char]

So say a guy is willing (wants) to move overseas, in what field do decent paying jobs lie?

[mock vomit]

So say a guy is willing (wants) to move overseas, in what field do decent paying jobs lie?

I've heard drug smuggling pays well... and according the the news these days should have regular job openings?

[Benny Profane]

So say a guy is willing (wants) to move overseas, in what field do decent paying jobs lie?

You know, a few years ago I would say banking and VC, but, now, uh, I don't know. Who would take a white boy banker from America seriously?

[Benny Profane]

http://online.wsj.com/video/more-for...1506C96AC.html

[Spats]

Cash for Caulkers! Seriously, I think it's a good idea. As is, fixing our roads, staffing our parks, repairing our bridges, etc.

It's a much better idea than blowing it all on bailing out GS -- but WPA projects don't support a middle class. That's hard shovel work.

[Snow Dog]

I'm sensing a weird optimism in my investing grounds these days. Lots of action. I'm going to flip 4 houses this year as a means to earning cash for buying rentals since financing has dried up for those of us with more than 4 mortgages (AKA, the experienced guys). I'll let you know how the flips go. I'll be listing one tomorrow. I paid 34K. Sank roughly 10K in the remodel will list for $88,500.

Up here $34,000 will buy a parking spot. Nice house BTW. If it was in Revelstoke it would be $250-300K. I guess we have different lending rules -- once you get to 4 you become an "investor" and the rules for debt loads and such get relaxed. It gets easier to borrow. Prices are rising here and have passed their pre-crash values for the most part.

[Snow Dog]

edit: And I can't find the blog post, but it was a very intelligent rant that essentially asked why in the world anyone would pursue a career in academics these days by going deep in debt for a humanities doctorate. That, too, is a bleak world of employment with no middle class.

What does academics have to do with the middle class? Going back to the fifties the middle class were people who worked with their hands -- (union) factory workers plus all the trades (plumbers, electricians, carpenters, mechanics, ...) In the 70s & 80s, when universities were almost free, there was a big shift to the "professions" and educated workers who became managers. Now it's going back. You don't need those managers (never did) and the factories have been outsourced but you can't outsource your mechanic or plumber. They're doing just fine.

[ass-to-mouth]

The short sale I made an offer on last March was rejected early last week. The house went up for auction on Friday and the bank had to buy it back. Wrote another offer for 50K less then the original. I really don't even want the house anymore, but I figure I've come this far so there's really no point in stopping now. The best part is, according to the listing dirt pimp the family still living there haven't made a mortgage payment since April 2008. Now that's what I call a pretty sweet deal. Fuck the bloodsuckers at IndyMac/OneWest.

[liv2ski]

I just came across this article today and as a guy that has worked in mortgage lending since 1984, I think this doods take is pretty much right on:

Of the loans in existence today at least 75% were refinanced or attained through a purchase from 2003-2007 – the bubble years. On several occasions the past couple of years, Jim Cramer has quantified the at-risk loan universe as being around 14 million, which represents everyone who purchased a home between 2005-2007. But then he says ‘”here is no way everybody who bought a house from 2005-2007 will ever default”. So, he pairs it back to 20% or 25% of 14 million – whatever. He is incorrect on a number of levels.

First off, the bubble years were really 2003-2007. But aside from that, the number of people who purchased a home is only a small piece of the entire pie. The bubble years was not about purchases, rather refi’s. During the bubble years, cash-out refi’s and HELOCs were at least 5:1 over purchases. A purchase is no more risky than an existing homeowner with a great payment history who pulled out 90% or 100% of their equity at a 50% DTI. In fact, the latter are more risky…purchases in general are always considered the safest loans.

This means the true potential at-risk loan universe is any Prime, Alt-A, or Subprime borrower that did a purchase or refi from 2003-2007. Obviously, not every single borrower is at-risk but we have no way of really knowing how many of the 43 million + loans from that period still in existence today are destined for trouble. This is especially true when even borrowers with 800 scores and 70% LTV’s are at risk of default because their DTI started out at 50% and after the fact, they expanded their credit portfolio because all credit was so easily attained until a couple of years ago.
http://www.businessinsider.com/milli...alizes-2009-12

[ass-to-mouth]

Anyone looking for a place in Vegas?

Jan. 14, 2010
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Bank of America to release homes

By HUBBLE SMITH

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

Bank of America expects to release about 6,000 foreclosed properties into the Nevada housing market in 2010, or about 500 a month, an executive with the bank said Wednesday.

It's part of the so-called "phantom inventory" of foreclosed homes being held by banks as they work out loan modifications and negotiate short sales, two of the more desirable alternatives to foreclosure.

Throughout the country, estimates of homes being taken back by Bank of America range from 11,000 to 14,000 a month in the early part of this year to 29,000 to 35,000 by November and December, said John Ciresi, vice president and portfolio manager for Bank of America in Towson, Md.

The system became "clogged" by a voluntary moratorium on foreclosures while banks met the requirements of President Obama's Making Home Affordable mortgage plan program and by state legislation requiring mediation before banks can start the foreclosure process, Ciresi said at a panel discussion sponsored by the Nevada chapter of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals.

Some homes are being held back from closing escrow because of Bank of America's fiduciary relationship with investors, he said.

"Let's say you have a $120,000 property and you have a $110,000 offer from a cash buyer and a $120,000 offer on a VA loan," Ciresi said. "Do I take the higher offer and hope financing is approved?"

Adam Fenn, president of Merit Asset Services in Henderson, said there's talk on Wall Street about a "double-dip recession," even as some data point to economic recovery. People are frustrated in their efforts to buy a home and there's not enough capital out there to finance purchases, he said.

"It's kind of scary," Fenn said. "When you go for the highest and best offer, you get people bidding too high and the property ends up going back on the market. I think there's going to be a double-dip in values. They're going to go up and then come back down."

Ciresi anticipates a rise in the foreclosure rate in 2010 because 60 percent of loan modifications failed and went into foreclosure. It's a combination of property devaluation and people losing their jobs, he said.

Bank of America is getting 40,000 new offers a month on short sales, or homes offered for less than the mortgage balance, Ciresi said. It's a difficult process, he said.

"Try to understand, we don't have the title in a short sale. That makes it very difficult in a short sale versus an REO (real estate-owned) home," he said.

Some banks are getting short sales done in as little as 30 days, said Steve Hawks, director of the National Association of Short Sale Professionals. They're doing "cash for cooperation" deals, giving people $5,000 to leave the home in good condition.

"The average right now is four to six months, but I see an average of 90 days in 2010, except for a few institutions that have to answer to different investors," Hawks said. "With half the country underwater (owing more than their home is worth), they're going to make it easier for a short sale."

He said 22 percent of mortgage defaults were "strategic defaults," coming on homes that were underwater. Banks need to eliminate the hardship letter for short sales and consider anyone who falls behind on their payment, Hawks said.

ReMax Pros Realtor Tim Kelly Kiernan said the REO inventory in Las Vegas is dwindling, even though 200 homes a day are going into default.

"Where are these homes? Banks are trying to convert some of them to short sales, but they're holding on to houses in lieu of the market stabilizing and it has," Kiernan said. "But every trend says there's a second tsunami coming. These houses are somewhere. They're not disappearing."

[mock vomit]

What does academics have to do with the middle class? Going back to the fifties the middle class were people who worked with their hands -- (union) factory workers plus all the trades (plumbers, electricians, carpenters, mechanics, ...) In the 70s & 80s, when universities were almost free, there was a big shift to the "professions" and educated workers who became managers. Now it's going back. You don't need those managers (never did) and the factories have been outsourced but you can't outsource your mechanic or plumber. They're doing just fine.

Interesting to remember that during our Parents (or for many of you Grandparents) generation, a bread truck delivery driver could raise a family of 4 kids with a stay at home wife and still afford a vacation here and there and save/pay some money for the kids college...

Now a Wall Street banker trades what is essentially funny money (all the derivatives and etc), and makes in one year what a bread truck delivery driver couldn't make in his entire life, even when his corporation loses billions that same year. These "trickle down" economic plans really improved things. [/polass rant]

The short sale I made an offer on last March was rejected early last week. The house went up for auction on Friday and the bank had to buy it back. Wrote another offer for 50K less then the original. I really don't even want the house anymore, but I figure I've come this far so there's really no point in stopping now. The best part is, according to the listing dirt pimp the family still living there haven't made a mortgage payment since April 2008. Now that's what I call a pretty sweet deal. Fuck the bloodsuckers at IndyMac/OneWest.

ATM, please update us when you ever hear something back... I'd like to know how it turns out someday.

I just came across this article today and as a guy that has worked in mortgage lending since 1984, I think this doods take is pretty much right on:

...This means the true potential at-risk loan universe is any Prime, Alt-A, or Subprime borrower that did a purchase or refi from 2003-2007. Obviously, not every single borrower is at-risk but we have no way of really knowing how many of the 43 million + loans from that period still in existence today are destined for trouble...

Anyone looking for a place in Vegas?

...

...Adam Fenn, president of Merit Asset Services in Henderson, said there's talk on Wall Street about a "double-dip recession," even as some data point to economic recovery. People are frustrated in their efforts to buy a home and there's not enough capital out there to finance purchases, he said.

"It's kind of scary," Fenn said. "When you go for the highest and best offer, you get people bidding too high and the property ends up going back on the market. I think there's going to be a double-dip in values. They're going to go up and then come back down."

Ciresi anticipates a rise in the foreclosure rate in 2010 because 60 percent of loan modifications failed and went into foreclosure. It's a combination of property devaluation and people losing their jobs, he said...

..."Where are these homes? Banks are trying to convert some of them to short sales, but they're holding on to houses in lieu of the market stabilizing and it has," Kiernan said. "But every trend says there's a second tsunami coming. These houses are somewhere. They're not disappearing."

^^^ Yep... hold on to your panties ladies!!!

[365wp]

We looked at a house a couple weeks ago that had been in somebody's family for a couple generations but they were being forced to sell for financial reasons.

We looked at a short sale last weekend. Original purchase: $438k, now asking $359k.

I requested a showing at a third house, but our buyer's agent said stay away: foreclosure, bank is allowing previous owners to rent while they sell, eviction is up to the buyer, they won't answer the phone and might lock the doors at the showing, etc.

We just offered yet again on yet another place that has been vacant for over a year. They still think they'll get their ask, so they haven't even countered yet. They're asking about $100k less than they paid, and we're coming in $30k under that. Nice house, great great great location, big fenced in lot, in-ground pool...and our offer is the only one they've received. In a year. According to the internet, nothing has sold on the street for a year.

It is crazy out there, and it's not going to get any better for a couple years at least.

Why buy? Because living in a rented beach cottage without garage or basement is getting old, there's not much to rent in the way of single families, and payments are about equal with rents again.

[montanaskier]

mine is still for sale in MT. Going on 3 years. I've had 3 contracts and all 3 have fallen thru due to buyer financing/job, etc...

I've had it rented which is the only thing that has saved me. Current renters move out at the end of the month. I couldn't afford to go more than a month or two without it rented before I would be SCREWED. I don't have it listed right now. Not much movement in the winter in MT and since I bought my business I don't have the cash to pay if I did sell it since it is now worth less than I owe.

What a fucking mess.

[ass-to-mouth]

I can't wait to see the shit show Pickle Sniffer Frank comes up with to replace Fannie & Freddie.

Barney Frank: Kill off Fannie, Freddie
Democrat would replace ailing mortgage giants

Jay Fitzgerald By Jay Fitzgerald

Saturday, January 23, 2010 - Updated 3h ago

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank wants to permanently shut down mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

During a hearing on executive compensation yesterday in Washington, the Newton Democrat said it may be time to just kill off the two firms now controlled by the federal government.

“The committee will be recommending abolishing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form and coming up with a whole new system of housing finance, and that’s the approach, rather than a piecemeal one,” said Frank, who chairs the powerful House Financial Services Committee now weighing a number of bills to overhaul the nation’s financial system.

A source said Frank has always made it clear that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taken over by the feds in 2008 after they nearly collapsed due to the subprime-mortgage debacle, wouldn’t return to their old roles after all the economic dust settles.

“That was always the plan,” said the source.

But Frank’s harsh words yesterday indicated that they won’t be just changed - they’ll instead by outright eliminated and replaced by something else.

Besides taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the feds have also had to pump in more than $100 billion in taxpayer money to prop up the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies.

The shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, already pounded down over the past year to pathetic levels, lost even more value yesterday.

Fannie Mae’s share closed at 99 cents yesterday, down 7.5 percent, while Freddie Mac’s shares closed at $1.17, down 10.6 percent.

[mock vomit]

mine is still for sale in MT. Going on 3 years. I've had 3 contracts and all 3 have fallen thru due to buyer financing/job, etc...

...What a fucking mess.

More +++++VIBES+++++ are in order!!!

[Benny Profane]

2010 will be all about two things: exotic mortgage reset, and principal cramdown, and the latter will take more time to find momentum. Of course, what will cloud it all is walking away from your loan headlines, and the debate that follows it in the media.

Deflation, baby. Cheap ski condos dotting the west!

Anyone looking for a place in Vegas?

No, but Reno and the Nevada side of Tahoe is close.

[mock vomit]

More evidence that the end of 2009 sucked!

Home sales tumble as first-time buyers back off
December's drop is largest in more than 40 years

WASHINGTON - Sales of previously occupied homes took their largest drop in more than 40 years last month yet managed to end 2009 with the first annual gain in four years.

Still, prices plunged by more than 12 percent last year — the sharpest fall since the Great Depression. The price drop for 2009 — to a median of $173,500 — showed the housing market remains too weak to help fuel a sustained economic recovery. Total sales for 2009 were nearly 5.2 million, up about 5 percent from 2008.

Last month's worse-than-expected showing underscores concerns that the housing market could weaken further after March 31, when the Federal Reserve is set to end its program to buy mortgage securities to keep home loan rates low. Once that program ends, mortgage rates could rise. Adding to the worries, a newly extended homebuyer tax credit is scheduled to run out at the end of April.

The numbers "clearly indicate that the rebound in housing demand observed so far has been largely supported by government programs," Anna Piretti, senior economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a research note Monday.

The poor December showing occurred after Congress extended the tax credit, easing pressure on buyers to act quickly. The credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homeowners had been due to expire Nov. 30. But Congress extended the deadline and expanded it with a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who move.

December's sales fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million, from an unchanged pace of 6.54 million in November, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Sales had been expected to fall by about 10 percent, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

The report "places a large question mark over whether the recovery can be sustained when the extended tax credit expires," wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

The median sales price for December was $178,300, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier and the first yearly gain since August 2007. But some of that increase could be due to a drop-off in purchases from first-time buyers who tend to buy less expensive homes.

Recovery needs healthy housing market
Sales are now up 21 percent from the bottom a year ago. But they're down 25 percent from the peak more than four years ago.

A healthy real estate market is needed to help the economy continue recovering from recession.

Last year, first-time buyers were the main driver of the housing market. But their role is shrinking. They accounted for 43 percent of purchases in December, down from about half in November, the Realtors group said.

The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7 percent to 3.3 million. That's a 7.2 month supply at the current sales pace, close to a healthy level of about six months.

Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, cautioned that the recovery will depend on whether the economy starts adding jobs in the second half of the year.

Total sales for 2009 closed out the year at 5.16 million, up about 5 percent from a year earlier. And some real estate agents say they feel encouraged. More buyers are shopping around this month than in a typical January, said Kevin O'Shea, an agent with Homes of Westchester Inc. in White Plains, N.Y.

"There are indications that the economy is coming back, and that makes buyers feel more secure to purchase," he said.

But many analysts project that home prices, which started to rise last summer, will fall again over the winter. That's because foreclosures make up a larger proportion of sales during the winter months, when fewer sellers choose to put their homes on the market.

Despite fears that home prices are starting to fall again, some analysts still say the worst is over.

"We do not believe it is fair to consider this a double dip in the housing market," Michelle Meyer, an economist with Barclays Capital, wrote last week. "The recovery is still under way but hitting some bumps in the road."

[Spats]

No, but Reno and the Nevada side of Tahoe is close.

Overheard on the lift: "Hotel occupancy is the worst it's been since 1982."

The long-term rental market here is getting cheaper and cheaper as vacation rentals that aren't renting go on the long-term market. Most of them are for sale, too, as people realize that "buy a place I use 2-3 weeks a year and rent it out when I'm not there" isn't such a great deal anymore.

You can rent a seriously pimpin' pad in a good location in NV for $1500/month. Example:
http://reno.craigslist.org/apa/1531135704.html
And you can rent 2BR condos all day for under $1000 on upper Kingsbury.

Lots of denial here still, though: these same houses are sitting on the market forever at ridiculous prices. Sure, I want to pay 2-3x the rent for the privilege of "owning". Riiiiight.