Is the stock market going to tank?

**liv2ski** · 10-15-2009, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

I sold around 9500 and got back in around 7000. Considering taking some profits at this point.

Hmmm.....we made it so far without the forecasted October implosion, so I am cautiously optimistic through end of the year. However, I would never discourage anyone from taking profits. Ed O Neil once suggested that if you had the good fortune to double your money in an idea, to sell half and then let the rest ride until it had a 20% pull back from it's high. Advise I follow.

**iceman** · 10-15-2009, 05:16 PM

I just got kinda nostalgic reading the first couple pages of the thread again after all this time. Those were the days.

**Benny Profane** · 10-27-2009, 08:22 AM

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Feature...s+November.htm

**iceman** · 10-27-2009, 09:14 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Feature...s+November.htm

Yeah, we're all gonna sit down for a couple hours and read that.

**wcf3** · 10-27-2009, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

Yeah, we're all gonna sit down for a couple hours and read that.

More like 20 minutes (unless you have to sound out the words). Well spent 20 minutes, I'd say.

**4matic** · 10-27-2009, 11:17 AM

Originally Posted by wcf3

More like 20 minutes (unless you have to sound out the words). Well spent 20 minutes, I'd say.

It's affecting the markets. Caution is the word.. I still think November has a chance to be a good month but I'm rebalalancing some today. More cash heading to Mr. Gross.

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 10:01 AM

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c...nclick_check=1

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 10:16 AM

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway on Tuesday said it is spending $44 billion to buy out railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe, sealing the biggest acquisition in the company's history in what the famed investor called "an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States."

"Our country's future prosperity depends on its having an efficient and well-maintained rail system," Buffett said in a press release. "Conversely, America must grow and prosper for railroads to do well."

He added, "Most important of all, however, it's an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States. I love these bets."

**Rontele** · 11-03-2009, 10:20 AM

I figured the market would rally on that news.

Shows what I know

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 10:24 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

I figured the market would rally on that news.

Shows what I know

Lots of cross currents this week. Aussie raised rates. 5 central banks have announcements and employment on Friday. Also, gold is rallying in the face of a strong dollar. That's pretty bearish for equity.

**JimmyCarter** · 11-03-2009, 10:31 AM

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_3Q09.pdf

Grantham's Q3 letter. Worth a read, particularly for his continued call-outs.

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

"Our country's future prosperity depends on its having an efficient and well-maintained rail system," Buffett said in a press release. "Conversely, America must grow and prosper for railroads to do well."

What's he saying there? Does he think he's the president? Advocating infrastructure spending? Or, is the essence in what he isn't saying? How much money is he going to make? Did he get a spectacular deal? Did the other side have to sell, and, for what reason?
Before the bust it was private jet time sharing, now it's railroads. I scratch my head. I thought he was an insurance salesman.

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

What's he saying there? Does he think he's the president? Advocating infrastructure spending? Or, is the essence in what he isn't saying? How much money is he going to make? Did he get a spectacular deal? Did the other side have to sell, and, for what reason?
Before the bust it was private jet time sharing, now it's railroads. I scratch my head. I thought he was an insurance salesman.

He's not a "doomer" like you. That's all.

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 10:53 AM

Yeah, but what is he saying? What's his game?

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_3Q09.pdf

Grantham's Q3 letter. Worth a read, particularly for his continued call-outs.

I agree with what he has to say except that Bernanke had to play the bad hand he was dealt. This mess is not his fault. Would a Volker style unwinding have been efficient? Yes.. but the consequences would have been dire in the short term.

"Bernanke, the most passionate cheerleader of
Greenspan’s follies, is picked as his replacement,
partly, it seems, for his belief that U.S. house
prices would never decline and that at their peak
in late 2005 they largely just refl ected the unusual
strength of the U.S. economy."

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Yeah, but what is he saying? What's his game?

He bought a $100 a share public company for $44 billion to make money..

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

He bought a $100 a share public company for $44 billion to make money..

Right, that's what I think. So just say that. Don't go talking from the mountain top.

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 12:16 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Warren Buffett's $44 billion bet on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad is the kind of big, bold move any 19th century American capitalist would have loved -- and understood.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buf...der-2009-11-03

**iceman** · 11-03-2009, 12:21 PM

Clever move, fighting cut-and-paste with cut-and-paste!

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 12:23 PM

You see? There you go. Our country's "future prosperity" depends on the average American having a decent job producing a livable wage so that their kids can get a decent education, not enriching Goldman Sachs with commodity plays and covering all those deals with derivatives, Mr. Buffett.

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Clever move, fighting cut-and-paste with cut-and-paste!

It was a short comment. Mea culpa..

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You see? There you go. Our country's "future prosperity" depends on the average American having a decent job producing a livable wage so that their kids can get a decent education, not enriching Goldman Sachs with commodity plays and covering all those deals with derivatives, Mr. Buffett.

dumbass:

"after nearly a generation of feasting on derivatives, appears to be acquiring an appetite for core industrial assets right here at home"

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 12:30 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

dumbass:

"after nearly a generation of feasting on derivatives, appears to be acquiring an appetite for core industrial assets right here at home"

Oh, and do you think Mr. buffett has suddenly become a 19th century railroad magnate and turned his back on 21st century financial manipulation? He has a ton of money invested in Goldman, too, smartass.

**4matic** · 11-03-2009, 12:35 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh, and do you think Mr. buffett has suddenly become a 19th century railroad magnate and turned his back on 21st century financial manipulation? He has a ton of money invested in Goldman, too, smartass.

I see no point with this comment. Buffett used an investment partner to broker the deal. You want a depression so you can say told you so. Dirivatives and investment banks are not going away.

**Benny Profane** · 11-03-2009, 12:40 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

You want a depression so you can say told you so.

No, I want a depression so that everything I buy will be much cheaper than it is today, and i won't have to chase returns with my money because deflation is giving me that return in spades.
But I don't see what that has to do with Warren.