Real Estate Crash thread

[Nobody Famous]

Don't forget AIG.

If the fire isn't put out this week watch the counterparty implosion begin.

Keep your eyes on the periphery.....these are the times for major distractions.

Yes, I forgot about them.

It will be interesting to keep in mind they are the parent of the Mt. Mansfield Company, what we all know as Stowe Mountain Resort.

The press is saying this evening they are "...pulling together a survival plan that includes selling off some of its most valuable assets". Not sure if Stowe qualifies as one of their most valuable assets.

[Purveyor of Slack]

rontele ....trustafarian..... lobotomy...... shitstain...... lawyer.......

Redundancy anyone?

[Toadman]

No comments here given the impending collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the outright sale of Merrill Lynch today?

I'm not sure what to make of these events. Surely it will be all over the news tomorrow. But I am glad to see the republi-cons are sticking to no gov-mint handouts to the corporate greed-meisters who control and run these institutions.

There's no more gov't debt to hand out. There's only so many billions upon billions in corporate welfare you can sign off on before the charades get exposed. Besides, the Big 3 auto cos want $25 billion. Seems like most of Europe and the U.K. too were bidding on a few billion in gov't loans, and there wasn't enough to go around. Look for some mergers/buyouts/failures over the pond in the next week or two.

[Nobody Famous]

There's no more gov't debt to hand out. There's only so many billions upon billions in coporate welfare you can sign off on before the charades get exposed.

Be careful. Statements like that will insure you have no future in gov-mint or politics!

[4matic]

Anecdotal: My entry level neighborhood in SF Bay Area suburb is swarming with Realtors and lookieloos. Rates are low and going lower.

[Benny Profane]

Prices will revert to the historical mean. Maybe lower.

[4matic]

Prices will revert to the historical mean. Maybe lower.

They already have in certain areas of the Bay Area. 2% a year since 1980.

[Benny Profane]

Well, around here, a shitbox still sells for 600000. Slowly, though. That will not sustain itself when all the bankers are out of work, and the market consists of buyers with normal middle class incomes who have to put 20% down.

[Nobody Famous]

Saw this quote today, had to post it:

“We have the irony of a free-market administration doing things that the most liberal Democratic administration would never have been doing in its wildest dreams.”

NYT Link

[Toadman]

Well, around here, a shitbox still sells for 600000. Slowly, though. That will not sustain itself when all the bankers are out of work, and the market consists of buyers with normal middle class incomes who have to put 20% down.

So basically common sense will now re-enter the equation when it comes to home ownership. Don't think we are any where near the bottom of the real estate market.

[Benny Profane]

So basically common sense will now re-enter the equation when it comes to home ownership. Don't think we are any where near the bottom of the real estate market.

It's not really "common sense". That term implies that most have come to their senses and decided to act properly and responsibly when entering and funding this market. No, what you will experience over at least the next 5 years and, I'm afraid, decade, is people literally being forced to take what they can get, because the party is over. I know a lot are still in denial, but, if you're 40, you may never see a real estate market in your lifetime like you just lived through in the past 15 years. Maybe if you're 30. But, hey, don't fear, as an American, you own a really big insurance company now. Pick up some cheap annuities. It's on me.

[meatdrink9]

It's not really "common sense". That term implies that most have come to their senses and decided to act properly and responsibly when entering and funding this market. No, what you will experience over at least the next 5 years and, I'm afraid, decade, is people literally being forced to take what they can get, because the party is over. I know a lot are still in denial, but, if you're 40, you may never see a real estate market in your lifetime like you just lived through in the past 15 years. Maybe if you're 30. But, hey, don't fear, as an American, you own a really big insurance company now. Pick up some cheap annuities. It's on me.

I thought we already went over the fact that markets are local. I think I'm still in for the biggest appreciation I've ever seen in my lifetime (in a small pocket). What you're seeing in your neighborhood is beyond apples to oranges and blanket statements don't work.

Today I closed on a 5 bedroom, 2 bath home with a 2 car garage and workshop (on the east bench, typically a good UT location) for 47K and I get $1000 back for my commission. I'll need to sink 12-15K into the property, but once that's done I'll have 60-70K in equity above and beyond any money I've put in (for about a 1 month of work). Down the road I'll refi, pull out every penny I put into the property, maintain my equity of 60-70K, and cash flow at least $500 a month. The appreciation of the location is just gravy.

Homes over 300K in Utah? I don't want anything to do with them. Even over 200K, but the bottom of the market is prime. Super low rates, cheap bank owned properties, great cash flow. Few buyers, means easy to buy up the best deals and less home owners means more potential renters and a better selection of renters.

The key to this whole equation hinges on financing, but luckily that's been going relatively smoothly this summer (all things considered).

[mcsquared]

The key to this whole equation hinges on financing, but luckily that's been going relatively smoothly this summer (all things considered).

True. Cash buyers are cleaning up right now as financing is the hard part. I have been thinking about doing some seller financing rather than renting. There are signs of an improving market here in Denver. Inventory is down and sales are pretty strong in some areas. In fact, I have been outbid on the past 5 properties I have gone after. Some banks are listing their REO at super low prices and then letting the market forces go to work. Houses are going on the market in the $90ks and within one day they have a dozen offers 20-30k over asking. I think the next couple months will be interesting. I think some banks may finally try to dump some of their properties just to get rid of them by the end of the year.

[meatdrink9]

True. Cash buyers are cleaning up right now as financing is the hard part. I have been thinking about doing some seller financing rather than renting. There are signs of an improving market here in Denver. Inventory is down and sales are pretty strong in some areas. In fact, I have been outbid on the past 5 properties I have gone after. Some banks are listing their REO at super low prices and then letting the market forces go to work. Houses are going on the market in the $90ks and within one day they have a dozen offers 20-30k over asking. I think the next couple months will be interesting. I think some banks may finally try to dump some of their properties just to get rid of them by the end of the year.

The property I mentioned above had 5 offers in under 24 hours. 3 of them were cash. My winning offer was a cash offer for 5K over asking. The low end of the market is churning. It won't be long before a lot of the worst/vacant properties in a few select areas are some of the best properties.

[powder11]

As MD9 demonstrates, there is a way to make money in any real estate market. Dip shits waiting on the sidelines for better prices are always going to be renters and god bless them because somebody has to pay my mortgages Actually, resenters make the worst renters as they're always trying to get their pound of flesh out of you.

(queue up the land lord haters)

[MakersTeleMark]

There were $2.96 billion in real estate sales in my county last year. While I doubt it will be matched this year, I don't think I'd call that a crash.

[Pow4Brains]

There were $2.96 billion in real estate sales in my county last year. While I doubt it will be matched this year, I don't think I'd call that a crash.

Yeahbut, that's like 3 houses in your over inflated market.

[MakersTeleMark]

Yeahbut, that's like 3 houses in your over inflated market.

Exactly, re markets are local.

[Benny Profane]

As MD9 demonstrates, there is a way to make money in any real estate market. Dip shits waiting on the sidelines for better prices are always going to be renters and god bless them because somebody has to pay my mortgages Actually, resenters make the worst renters as they're always trying to get their pound of flesh out of you.

(queue up the land lord haters)

Now, quite honestly, young man, would you live anywhere near a 90,000 house in Denver? No, that's OK, you don't have to answer, I know. You're literate, educated, enjoy middle class pursuits, and don't have to toil too hard. And, of course, you're white and safe.

There were $2.96 billion in real estate sales in my county last year. While I doubt it will be matched this year, I don't think I'd call that a crash.

Why do I suspect that includes commercial properties?

[Hugh Conway]

Now, quite honestly, young man, would you live anywhere near a 90,000 house in Denver? No, that's OK, you don't have to answer, I know. You're literate, educated, enjoy middle class pursuits, and don't have to toil too hard. And, of course, you're white and safe.

This is the slum lord appreciation thread Benny, adjust. slum lords get shitty tenants they bitch about. land lords get good tenants.

[Pow4Brains]

Does the Clinton Administration’s “Affordable Housing for Everyone” have anything to do with this melt down?

[liv2ski]

Does the Clinton Administration’s “Affordable Housing for Everyone” have anything to do with this melt down?

I am pretty sure this has little to do with that and more to do with the Greenapan/Whitehouse plan to support and grow the economy through housing after the 2000 tech implosion. Laws were passed, rules were bent to allow brokerage firms to leverage out 30-1. All sorts of CMOs, etc were created that allowed said investment banks to pool poor (subprime loans) in with good loans (ya right) and sell them off to everyone from your pension fund to the governments of the World as everyone wanted just a little bit better yield than was available from say Treasuries without understanding what they were buying because the rating agencies said these were safe investments and they were insured by the likes of AIG, PMI, etc who have all crashed and burned as the truth has come out. This was a tremendous shit show that came about from greed. Greed for higher yields, greed to provide these very profitable pools to the markets, greed on the mortgage industry to earn fat commissions in generating the product for Wall Street to sell. Greed from the consumer to be offered loans they didn't qualify for so they could buy or strip equity from properties to support their housing ATM addiction. As other industries saw how great this was all working for Wall St and the housing industry, they decided to drop credit standards too and do the same pooling of shit with good and sell it off to the investment community. The auto, student loan, commercial R.E., you fucking name it all did the same shit. The so called sub prime housing issue is but a fall boy for the entirely corrupted system of giving out any type of loan with poor credit standards behind it.
Like any ponzi scheme, it had to blow up at some point. One by one all of the shit done over the last 7 years will fail and as that happens, industries and individuals will be crushed.
The government can say they are going to bail out everything and it will slow the speed of the eventual correction, but not stop it. This is the worst credit implosion/liquidity problem to happen since the great depression and the average Joe is clueless of the massive financial typhoon bearing down on us all.
The world and markets will be a very different and poorer place in 2 years regardless of who is elected President.
Short the S&P, short the Case Schiller index, likely buy Gold.

[Pow4Brains]

^^^^Thanks for the input.

[Spats]

Solid summary, liv2ski. Thanks.

[khakis]

Now, quite honestly, young man, would you live anywhere near a 90,000 house in Denver?

Several houses in my neighborhood sold for under 90k in the last 2 years, and those same houses are now selling for over 200. I like my neighborHood.