Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

By trying you might get lucky or you might miss a great opportunnity, things can turn either direction on a dime.

The CEO of Houvanian feels that the market is screwed at least until the end of '08. And many agree with him. Many feel longer, but don't want to be that pessimistic.
My paste post on the last page I think in indicitive of the warped psycology of this market that still has to be cured somehow, and only time can do that. If people were still borrowing at stupid terms up to this summer, when the market was already pretty much fucked in many places, well, it's going to take at least a year for reality to sink in for a lot of people. And then, who knows how long after that for the upside. I remember the early 90's in the NYC area, when many people I knew were underwater for 4 or 5 years, and eventually were happy to sell at a loss just to get rid of the headache.

[cj001f]

things can turn either direction on a dime.

Compared to what?

The apartment I rented in PDX (recent building, well maintained, close to downtown) looks to still rent for what I signed for 5 years. I wouldn't call that a "strong" rental market. relative to the local economy PDX was overpriced when I left unless things have deflated it likely still is buoyed more by out of state relocations than a wellpaying local economy.

[powder11]

one mans foreclosure is another mans bargain

[CUBUCK]

Compared to what?

The apartment I rented in PDX (recent building, well maintained, close to downtown) looks to still rent for what I signed for 5 years. I wouldn't call that a "strong" rental market. relative to the local economy PDX was overpriced when I left unless things have deflated it likely still is buoyed more by out of state relocations than a wellpaying local economy.

Would you say your apartment building in Portland is representative of the entire country?

As has been hinted at numerous other times in this thread real estate markets are localized. There is no guarantee you are going to get a better deal by waiting as depending on your location the opportunity may have passed. Generally real estate is not a short term investment therefore it is a pointless exercise to try to time the peaks and the troughs. Its more important for you to believe you are getting a good value out of your purchase than to buy because you think the market has hit a bottom.

[cj001f]

Would you say your apartment building in Portland is representative of the entire country?

corndog was asking about the Portland real estate market.

peaks and troughs are relevant to the question of "should I buy or rent"?

[CUBUCK]

corndog was asking about the Portland real estate market.

peaks and troughs are relevant to the question of "should I buy or rent"?

ok, I'm sorry I misunderstood. The text you were quoting of mine was far more general than specific to Portland.

The peaks and troughs argument was more for Benny calling the bottom of the market in late '08.

[Benny Profane]

Hard to predict, considering what else can happen before then, but I'll say late'09-10. Maybe.

[cj001f]

The peaks and troughs argument was more for Benny calling the bottom of the market in late '08.

Heh - I'm in agreeance with you on the futility of trying to predict or time the top of the peak or bottom of the trough. If I could do that well I wouldn't be working the job I am

[jbach]

Heh - I'm in agreeance with you on the futility of trying to predict or time the top of the peak or bottom of the trough. If I could do that well I wouldn't be working the job I am

To add to that, interest rates further complicate buying in troughs for most people buying real estate. Inflation is rising and oil is skyrocketing; interest rates are going to have to rise if we don't want to be on par with the peso. As interest rates rise, RE is going to go even farther down the tubes. You might think prices are bad right now, but if interest rates climb to 10% (which is historically actually fairly low), you might not be able to afford payments on the same house even if it's 20% cheaper down the road. Those with enough cash to avoid as much financing as possible will come out ahead. Better start saving your money.

[montanaskier]

My house is still for sale in Laurel, Mt. Been on the market since April. Started at 300k and now ata 269,900. 1 acre, 5 bedrooms 3.5 baths, hot tub, pool table, big screen all come with the place, 3100 sq. feet. Any mags give me a referral and it ends up selling to that person I will throw some cabbage to the appropriate mag.

[Toadman]

My house is still for sale in Laurel, Mt. Been on the market since April. Started at 300k and now ata 269,900. 1 acre, 5 bedrooms 3.5 baths, hot tub, pool table, big screen all come with the place, 3100 sq. feet. Any mags give me a referral and it ends up selling to that person I will throw some cabbage to the appropriate mag.

Have you tried zillow.com

Interesting website. Kind of cool to check out what your buddy spent on his house, or your boss.

[Benny Profane]

Capitalism is a funny thing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/22/us...agewanted=1&hp

“The market’s really low right now, so you can get a good price,” said Lori Crook, a food server at Keys Cafe who said she was looking for a place she could fix up and sell. “Even if you can’t sell it right away, if you just sit on it and sit on it, it will go up.”

"But instead of alarming buyers about the risks, the auction of so many foreclosures at once was an invitation to speculators, small and large. Some, including Bryan Kihle and Jim Casha, who bought a four-bedroom house for $145,000, bid without seeing the properties. “I just looked at the picture and thought if we got it cheap enough, we could rent it for a year, then sell it when the market goes back up,” said Mr. Kihle, a building contractor. "

"Since he is still a part-time student, Mr. Harris chose an interest-only mortgage, which will convert to a 25-year adjustable rate mortgage after five years, the type of exotic mortgage many critics and lawmakers blame for the foreclosure crisis. But he said he was not worried: in five years, when his mortgage adjusts, it will still be on a principal of only $80,000."

[Core Shot]

Capitalism is a funny thing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/22/us...agewanted=1&hp

“The market’s really low right now, so you can get a good price,” said Lori Crook, a food server at Keys Cafe who said she was looking for a place she could fix up and sell. “Even if you can’t sell it right away, if you just sit on it and sit on it, it will go up.”

"But instead of alarming buyers about the risks, the auction of so many foreclosures at once was an invitation to speculators, small and large. Some, including Bryan Kihle and Jim Casha, who bought a four-bedroom house for $145,000, bid without seeing the properties. “I just looked at the picture and thought if we got it cheap enough, we could rent it for a year, then sell it when the market goes back up,” said Mr. Kihle, a building contractor. "

"Since he is still a part-time student, Mr. Harris chose an interest-only mortgage, which will convert to a 25-year adjustable rate mortgage after five years, the type of exotic mortgage many critics and lawmakers blame for the foreclosure crisis. But he said he was not worried: in five years, when his mortgage adjusts, it will still be on a principal of only $80,000."

WOW!
The warped mentality is still there.
We NEED a serious ass-kicking correction if for no other reason than to teach these idiots a lesson.
Then we can resume a normal, sensilble real estate market, driven by either homeowner-occupant demand or investor cash flow return.

[Core Shot]

Oh yeah, Salt Lake is definitely immune to any slowdown:





Look out, Miami!



its actually a great website since you can see MEDIAN sales info (not average which is misleading) as well as the 25th and 75th percentile values to check the strength of the high or low price side of the market.
www.housing-watch.com

[Core Shot]

too funny

[DJSapp]

Heh, and my coworkers keep wondering why I keep telling them that I'm making a killing by renting right now and dropping the money into stocks.

Their money is here:


My money is here:


Keep on correcting baby.

[meatdrink9]

Here's a graph of where I'm currently investing. I haven't paid more than $35 sq ft. per property and median sold price per sq ft. is currently $88 (still a good deal). The most I've paid for a property is $65K and the smallest place I've bought 1700 sq ft. Rents are going up quickly as home prices have gone up and less people are finding themselves able to qualify for a home loan. There are more and more homes sitting on the market, but the deals are going faster than ever. This is a very good time to be a landlord, but not a spec builder. I closed on a property today and put in an offer on another. None of the deals would've worked If I couldn't be there to work on them though. They all have needed substantial work.



After a few more purchases I may have to do another flip to buy more rentals again. It'll be interesting to see what the market is like then (probably next spring). Utah gets the vast majority of its transactions in the summer months.

This graph shows the whole county, but the city on it's own is up 26% from last year and volume is up as well. Right now it may just be investors trading houses around, but it'll be interesting to see where things head over the next couple of years.

[timvwcom]

Wanted to comment in this thread being as RE is my business for nearly 23 years, but I'm not so stupid to go fucking up the thread without reading it. I read ALL this shit, then decided to summarize it... what a dumb shit. See, I can still screw it up even after reading the whole damn thing.

FYI, not a 1 for 1 summary...

start @ 5/26/2006
benny: watch out boom over
ak_pow: I'll be baron!
squatch: you'll need serfs.
skiing: he not the man
Theodore: shit! new $ broker
hutch: delta shit my shine
steve: still a smart dude
ice: X got the house?
benny: yea, not the 401K
root: get refi bidness quick
550: good RE blog
benny: look out 4 foreclosures
tipp: funny shit that 401K
theodore: 4 of us left now
cono: vegas bad, very bad
root: duh, MT biotech boon
root: I'm dangerous with $
theodore: arms adjust
ak_pow: baron with china serfs
theodore: wait til the boys...
root: ours are fixed, no arms
tipp: me 5.125% and happy
theodore: painful wake up
lee: vancouver insane
theodore: I HATE debt
mr_g: bullshit,ignore NYT
ice: ribbing was in order
truth: bring on bargain hunt
mr_g: benny is chicken little
spin: oh yea? don't think?
benny: read 1,000,000 next door
huch: yawn, print own money
ryde: lining up out of state $
mr_g: after rich dad poor dad
benny: trust fund baby?
spin: wish real hard
mr_g: I make more than U do
mr_g: "crash" will be localized
spin: will be feeling pain
mr_g: patently false
cono: Tom Ve dead on 15 years
benny: where info? Fox/Rush?
mr_g: WaPo, WaTimes, WSJ
spin: simple cause & effect
mr_g: "poor" have no taxes
benny: live free, watch idol
bklyn: geez, true measure!
meat: i'm lovin it, buy more
cono: eden? sshhhhhh!!
atomic: these are my women
root: Summitpublican?
monkey: md9 shh, not 1031s yet
mr_g: slow day in bed-stuy?
bklyn: weak, I'm disappinted
benny: more oh oh
ice: who quote from?
benny: NTY RE blog
whatcom: pop pushed off
mr_g: ohio vs upstate NY?
cj1f: hows CO going?
mr_g: not negative here
ice: yeah, I guess I could
root: howz st.paul, missouri?
schmear: inlaws eden, RE rocks
benny: even more
sea2: WSJ like my parents
benny: drunken party 4 years
cono: kicking myself
dano: well?
cono: shit. louis, sorry karl
cono: dot.com sucked
ryde: I WILL rule
sea2: rich people
cono: they lost 25 mil
various: links
benny: more info
dexter: still up here
slip: buyer's market
part-e: i'm flat?
mc2rd: where it at?
huck: right spot?
md9: SLC going off
benny: more pasteing
cj1f: same
summit: please!
ski_t: show off
ski_t: not naxdaq-uean
cj1f: more bad
chain-ie: chicken little
md9: i'm still loving it
gr8: why $ v % ^ ?
various: i think...
skiB: SLC no slow down
ptdem: SLC reacting
core: -5 to 15%
ride: I'm in, phew
md9: I don't see it
slip: 2.4 mil 2wide
benny: iraqublican boom!
md9: then buy in SLC
cono: super 8 garage
slip: could work
benny: nice breasts
yeti: change my arm?
hev: 4.24 4 2 w/20
spats: bull n bears
lemon: Xouts up 53%
core: 250 MI Xouts
tin'man: why a condom?
shmer: mass produce land
various: build on dumps?
cono: no layoffs, no dump
slip: bozeman 3x needed
various: iraqiburton
4matic: flush w/cash
tin'man: no, not to 100
benny: flush? jeezuz
mr_g: .5 mil rounding error
DJS: ah, fuckit... 80k
4matic: vietnam recession
core: stats coming, bad
core: hard landing
powwow: not in my neck
core: look out below?
anon: now work anywhere
boom'r: hurt is coming...
tin'man: lie to that theory
mitch: ^^ I agree
tin;man: huh? mucho info
4matic: I see < 4% in 2007
lego: "nice places" theory
core: Mr. Housing Bubble
divegrl: 4 years 4 cheap!
ride: uh, no... GW strikes
mitch: financially retarded
assgas: truckee flipers lost
schindler: NHL transfer score
hutch: rich C.A.s to teton?
4matic: most pundits wrong
benny: can't pay-can't sell
mr_g: let up! an anti-jinx?
benny: I'm watching, popcorn?
cono: last time -20%
spats: Japanese haven't come
md9: I'll be cashing checks
benny: SLC doesn't count, water?
mc2rd: location in investing?
benny: buy V sell ^ brilliant!
mc2rd: you aren't either
benny: I'm at the stock market
dips: md9, talent but watchout
root: good for md9, relo fucked
md9: I like RE, teh $ crazy!
rip: md9, on tv? kick ass!
md9: yeah, that's me?
core: you lucky, me jealous
sean: md9, wanna loan me $ ?
md9: fix rentals raise rents
md9: buy odgen before gondola
sean: md9, get commercial?
sean: now booze and porn!
cono: u da balls! where mine?
shmer: how much work?
root: cast iron balls! flow?
md9: commercial someday
tips: commercial has bumps
md9: I work my ass
md9: my wifes balls
ling: md9, daddy sez wha
tin'man: what he said
jackie: md9 not REavangilist
mitch: sack, luck & research
ice: my cuz iz rich
tin'man: 2-3x poor saps
cono: no guns, md9 grunts
mitch: buyer beware
hook: FL dumbs, md9 stoke
shmer: nooice!
md9: buy right, dad is smart
benny: squeeze reaching deep
tin'man: be careful, u atypical
aldo: zip 07043 mulitple bids
4matic: 94580 dumps & retards
4matic: housing -1 point GDP
various: linkies
core: 8 houses 8 months idiot!
md9: holy crap, insane kid
flatr: shoulda listened to pa
DJS: foreclosure climbing fast
benny: I'm going Dow baby!
skimonk: PC not md9 like
root: slight slowdown, no worry
benny: new-home prices fall
benny: largest drop in 35 years
benny: drag on growth
benny: bonanza turned bust
benny: house prices misleading
ride: not here in teton valley
cj1f: WTF? 10K residences?

(continued next post)

[timvwcom]

(continuing)

md9: SLC graph, got 4 props!
root: md9 sold projects yet?
core: md9 green line concern
md9: not sold, still confident
pow11: wet trailer = +$85K
ride: teton valley + 3K homes
eldo: re graph, won't continue
benny: suprised at how fast
ryde: buy rentals
benny: chicago foreclosure
ride: mine 230K to $550K
benny: march sales -8.4%
common: find law re converting
follow: no cali crash so far
black: jackson > 1 mil
benny: jackson like malibu
md9: SLC slowed down, buy ogden
dexter: point to weak market
md9: year 2 of thread, meh...
spook: at bottom? baloney.
mc2nd: I = md9, ebb not flow
benny: gov to bail mcmansions?
spook: gov did induce these peeps
cj1f: this bailing bankers tho
spook: i agree
colm'n: locationx3, denver slow
buc: no 'national' RE market
mitch: deal by wellshire/slavens?
eldo: N.E. Calgary w/big ass SUVs
benny: builder battered by bust
core: knee deep weeds on street
partile: Fresno. Wheeee!!! blah.
benny: Detroit shit
core: yep, my street too
benny: +++ timeline 4 recovery
ride: going gangbusters
MTskier: mine taking time 2 sell
Danno: I live in a bubble
MteleM: me hot air balloon
DJM: FKNA Danno...
pow11: RE collapse paper fodder
4matic: East Bay Area soft & down
benny: really saying is F the X
bastard: MTskier, got pics
core: I just mailed 2 Laurel MT
4matic: links
benny: Countrywide chairman: shit!
(NOTE: benny knew on 5/26/06,
now on 7/27/07 this dumb fuck
running countrywide just found
out?)
p_mc: Where $ falling? I'll move
cj1f: FL or MI, bah...
f2f: San Diego Xouts ^ 551%
4matic: CA weak, rates 4% in 08?
ride: Idaho < $600K gangbusters
cj1f: that bad CA place
f2f: your money shit
666: thank you 100% financing
benny: NJ retirees need $58 B
666: but gov gave the go ahead
cono: no have to mow anymore
dAD: wife's friend just hit it
4matic: old europe, rate shit
stone: I'm living it every day
jbach: SLC $ trending down
squaw: london is all that
squaw: 'les agents immobiliers!
rune: what's wrong w/100%
stone: no lick for 5 years
p_mc: be smart not stupid
cono: st.louis free plasma
alek: yea 4 you in st.lou
cono: catfish tourney n nascar
comish: everywhere but here, but
cono: LA is wierd, alot
666: Silicon increasing crazy
cirque: temperpedic bitch!
comish: rent up 200 mo, hurts
ride: JH & Teton rising, silly
rune: rent was cheap vs mortgage
666: same boat buddy! wierd.
hutch: creditors to after her?
core: jim cramer sez walk away
core: cramer sez 100% default
md9: <200K SLC feeding frenzy
sfo: I'm waiting 4 right deal
benny: and I'm a doomsayer?
core: housingpanic.blogspot
core: cramer video; armageddon
core: cut on cali credit crunch
core: no more FL condo loans!
enlos: N.Tahoe/Truckee lesser $
dMad: no good job in his lap
benny: my friends sky is falling
4matic: chicken little sez what
woodsez: probably the same thing
mc2rd: watching bennys buying
woodsez: I'll take benny's
yoss: past "holistic" bottom?
woodsez: i hope pessimism
benny: don't catch falling knife
sist: broke idiots backup plan
4matic: not nervous, no sympathy
up_an: corn profit = new bindings
gordon: foreclosure last thing
4matic: corn deflation upon us
woodsez: dad sez not want them
alek: 12 yr bubble popping now
aldo: sky falling, benny rents
benny: they know, i rant too
toad: if shit hits the fan big
benny: gov bailout could happen
p_mc: I'm still appreciating
lumpy: my spec home 'hood quiet
toad: gov rescue? how about NOLA
benny: britain silver lining
core: NAR whores gleeful no more
benny: lookie at linkie, wow
ice: cool charts, not cumulative
cj1f: big $ safe, from overseas
benny: russians coming, S.A.s too
cj1f: US sliding backwards
benny: dude, welcome, get in line
steep: $ in canada?
4matic: potential for low rates
ride: ID market cooling off
p_mc: howze 97/3 or 80/20 loans?
mc2rd: prove your credit big 1
comish: no wanta da jumbo
wart: on the construction side
p_mc: didn't read day credit died
core: greenspan.pompous.asshole
benny: imagine whining about it
4matic: in favor of owning
AKPogue: why blame greenspan?
(recovering cheesehead)
toad: "own" the american dream?
benny: running dog capitalist pigs
stu: UK gov guarantee deposits
benny: to stop a bank run?
nobody: fear of losing 2,300 lbs
666: rents up in Santa Clara
ice: wait and RE will pay off
chemical: rate cut tomorrow MFs
chain-ie: hope 2 drop, nope...
woodsez: median price misleading
benny: about location these days
stu: not a wonderful like to come
enlos: input on feds cuts today?
root: I'm not intelligent (sorry)
spats: creative financing cant
root: but there are regular 30 yr
chain-ie: seattle not slowing
benny: echoes bailout from 1998
liv2: mailing keys from underwater
dap: Montreal analyst v Greenspan
ride: ID market softening, but...
sail: divorces start w/marriage
flexon: who needs a Real(i)tor?
benny: benny wants 2 live in WY
ride: what is holding you back?
benny: 50 million to 1 lotto odds
ride: U could find something!
benny: yeah, dream on... for view
super: true dat, targhee private?
ride: only OOT'ers allowed on tram
super: WY screwed up life in ID
ride: I got him good n' sauzled
super: tailor to your audience!
dirk: teton mags taxes killer
benny: You betta not want Vail
benny: first half 2007 loans suck
bubuck: ya, 2007 vintage sucks
stu: eating this up with beans
cubuck: investment firms bias
mitch: Amen, 06/07 complete shit
chris: buying in Denver next yr?
mitch: you bought a home run!
benny: underestimating stupidity
stu: credit shitshow stupid x2
chris: we'll see, on rail winner
cj1f: big county CA sales v 30%
md9: fly on wall at realtor meets
root: did projects sell yet md9?
drgonzo: SLC; everyone is scared
benny: looking in westchester NY
ride: teton gonna be interesting
drgonzo: thought boise was free
benny: GWB eating a puppy?
md9: 2 at +$100K, 1 rented
corn: any RE folks in PDX?
tourette: rent, not at PDX bottom
cubuck: can't time bottom, move on
nobody: news pointing downward
danno: RE markets localized
nobody: can I borrow your money?
corn: PDX rents up and strong
benny: CEO thinks screwed thru 08
cj1f: my old PDX rental still flat
pow11: one mans forecloser is
another mans bargain (This
deserved more than 2 lines!!!)
cubuck: your PDX like whole USA?
cj1f: he asking about PDX market
cubuck: nevermind
benny: hard to predict-late 09-10?
cj1f: I'm in agreeance on futility
jbach: interest rate complicate
MTskier: house still 4 sale in MT
toad: tried zillow.com?
benny: capitalism funny thing
core: warped mentality still there
core: SLC graph (bad numbers)
core: funny video about uncle Ben
DJS: 2 graphs, RE vs stock market
md9: I'm still investing + graph

Phewww... comments later!

I am a dumb shit!!!

[iceman]

Holy fuck that must have been a lot of work!

[rideit]

Can we hire this guy to summarize ALL of our stupid, redundant, there are no answers mega-threads?

Maybe he could just do them ahead of time, and save us all a lot of time....

[timvwcom]

OK... now my initial thoughts. Note that as a residential real estate broker I can comment on my SE WI market with confidence, but only guess about the market where "you" live... (if it matters or give me cred; in march will be 23 years as full time agent, over 100 million in sales, sales in 47 municipalities in the metro Milwaukee WI area)

-Benny was nearly prophetic when on 5/26/06 he hit this with gusto, who cares if he had a chip on his shoulder (still have it? or the down market wash it off by now? ) and was reading Greenspan and NYT to report back to us.

-Mr_G was sure this was patently false, then "localized", then he didn't show up anymore... Do you NOW think the market is down? Sorry dude, it is big time! Who woulda knew? Benny did!

-md9 sound like he works it! Also sounds like he was counting some of those chickens before they hatched? He only sounded doubtful there for a post or two... I acknowledge that the best rewards usually come with the highest risk, I hope you end up on the sweet side of that mang! Ogden huh?

So... now that I'm up to speed on this discussion; my thoughts are most of the markets are down... maybe 6 months ago I'd say our metro Milwaukee WI market was just "flat", but for sure down now. Even the best properties are going 5% below their "paper highs" of 2 years or so ago. The problem properties with bad basements, bad locations, in need of total updating are lucky to sell for 10 to 15% below those best times. Basically when there was 1 buyer for 1 seller, to get a deal you had to buy a problem property... the junk sold for less, but not way less. Now, with 1 buyer for 4 sellers (or whatever), the buyers are cherry picking just the best stuff. In my community the stuff with new kitchens with granite counters and updated baths are selling, the dated leave it to beaver or brady bunch places are just sitting. Mainly because lots of those owners STILL don't accept that the market is down that much. The ones who are pricing low to the market can sell, but others are thinking they can avoid the pain by just holding out until the market comes back to them. Hope they can wait...

I don't see this clearing out around here for over a year... could be more. We still have lots of new listings coming on market, but sales are still way down from past highs. Meaning listings are stacking up on the market. Even if the market picked up, it won't clear out the oversupply of inventory for a long time... I say the market bounces along the bottom for 2008, MIGHT start to recover in 2009, and I hope that by 2010 there is some more balance between buyers and sellers.

Now keep in mind that what is a shitty market to sell in, is a great market to buy in. Assuming that your market is in bottom part of the cycle (vs just started down) and especially if you rent now, or can find someway to rent out your current digs and only have to to the buy side for now... say by getting downpayment on new place with equity in old one... perfect time to go shopping. Then later on sell old place when market has rebounded, or just keep as a rental?

I don't think you should plan to try and time the absolute bottom of the market though... almost every indicator you can watch will lag the actual market conditions. Even as a Realtor I have to judge based on how my phone is ringing, or what the other agents in the office are saying... Any of you in the public watching the graphs/charts will be at least 1 or 2 months behind the current situation. For sales figures for instance; the actual closing/escrow happens 30 to 60 days after the offer to purchase then acceptance of offer. Then at the end of the month, total sales are available to the media, then printed in the paper or reported on the radio/tv in the days and weeks following. I've had 4 or 5 cases in my nearly 23 years in the business where the papers are reporting a horrible sales month all doom and gloom, but in the 30 to 60 days since the slow time, things have picked up and even in a few cases were now going gangbusters with new offers everwhere. Also the other way, where media is reporting a record market... but for 30 days the phones haven't rung, no one is buying... maybe interest rates up sharply or whatever?

Also noted that on many of the graphs shown herein, they are charting "asking prices"... that is likely a good way to judge seller sentiment. But not likely to help find the bottom of the market until weeks or months after things have picked back up. Sales prices are sometimes nearer asking (a good market), sometimes further away (bad market)... but in my area the general masses of sellers were almost a year behind the change in the market, they are just NOW getting that to sell they've got to be aggressive on the down side. I would expect they would be closer on the way up, but once a chart like that shows upward movement, the public will already be pricing new listings higher, and holding firmer on offers. In other words, to get the best deals, the FUTURE has to STILL look bleak... If the seller sees light at the end of the tunnel they start to wait and won't negotiate much.

Enough of my rantings... moral of this story; Selling, be aggressive on moving price down and/or make the home shine. Buying, don't wait too long to make the deal!

But who reads shit from JONGs anyway? Out.

[Benny Profane]

Wow, you type fast. Do you hang in the back of a coffee place like Starbucks and drink massive amounts of Expresso while you do that?

It's impressive to hear a salesman say what some realists were saying a year ago - that the market will stagnate at least a year and a half, maybe more. This was probably sacrilege in an agency up to recently. But, I guess all the real estate sales jongs you had to compete with during the boom are behind the counter at Starbucks keeping you buzzed, while experienced people like yourself are out dealing with the aftermath. Hope you can make a living out of it for a few years.

A big test may be the NYC market over the next year. It's been immune to a lot of the downturn because of all the financial money grabbing up real estate like Homer buys donuts. But now that whole world is in turmoil, because the credit ponzi scheme died, and should see layoffs and bonus reductions. Like you said, this will hurt the non quality stuff that people were buying for half a million, because, shit, it was a friggin house. New Canaan will probably breeze through nicely, but New Jersey will show some damage.

[timvwcom]

Wow, you type fast. Do you hang in the back of a coffee place like Starbucks and drink massive amounts of Expresso while you do that?

The summary list was created whilst I polished off the rest of a 1.5L bottle of red last night... all in my home office "bat cave" (painted dark brown w/brown orientals over maple hwfs and shades shut tight). I had some good laughs and a good number of guffahs over some of my condensing, I doubt anyone else will ever catch them though - stuck in that huge sea of stuff.

It's impressive to hear a salesman say what some realists were saying a year ago - that the market will stagnate at least a year and a half, maybe more. This was probably sacrilege in an agency up to recently.

I was probably early in calling our market "flat", it started immediately after the hurricane hit NOLA, don't think it was even a major cause, but was one of many that started the hurt. I only saw a few sub parts of market I would call down as of last fall, but about 3+ months ago it became clear EVERYTHING was affected. If I'd have to find major cause now, I think energy prices are killing middle class... which stalled market, then exposed the easy money shit. If the market had kept going up, they would have been "investments" instead of "foreclosures".

I've never been anywhere that I felt pressure to talk up a market... Seems that would be counter productive - as taking listings too high means they expire 6 months later, with seller hating you for wasting their time. I've always thought best to say the hard truth, whether client/customer wants to hear it or not. At least that way they won't go out after aforementioned 6 months, buy a dog, name it "Tim" and kick it everytime they get home.

But, I guess all the real estate sales jongs you had to compete with during the boom are behind the counter at Starbucks keeping you buzzed, while experienced people like yourself are out dealing with the aftermath. Hope you can make a living out of it for a few years.

I was down about $100K in commission income last year, but right back up at typical for 2007 YTD. But I see many agents, even with decades of experience, that are totally sucking wind on sales/income now... I work at a 100% office, so we are more stable. But in the rest of biz they are use to big turnover; 50% who get a license are gone in first year, 80% gone within the first five years. If you know someone in more than five years, they might qualify as an "old timer" already? I think the supply of new agents into that pipe is just much lower now too.

I wonder in a big market like NYC, if it slows last... will that mean it comes back first, or just go thru the whole cycle belatedly???

[Benny Profane]

It's all about the financial markets here. Huge engine of growth and consumption, even if the percentage of people employed is low. If that faucet stops, a lot of problems will rise to the service that were obscured or ignored during the Gulianni/Bloomberg good times. 9/11 hurt buisness, but, hey, the dust literally was settling on the stock exchange. An entire brokerage floor was taken out instantly when the first plane hit. So, people were a little upset and fucked up. But, it came back. Maybe, after this crisis is worked out, we might see a rebound. Maybe not Read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/ma...l?ref=magazine

"But in today’s burgeoning and increasingly integrated global financial markets — a vast, neural spaghetti of wires, Web sites and trading platforms — the N.Y.S.E. is clearly no longer the epicenter. Nor is New York. The largest mutual-fund complexes are in Valley Forge, Pa., Los Angeles and Boston, while trading and money management are spreading globally. Since the end of the cold war, vast pools of capital have been forming overseas, in the Swiss bank accounts of Russian oligarchs, in the Shanghai vaults of Chinese manufacturing magnates and in the coffers of funds controlled by governments in Singapore, Russia, Dubai, Qatar and Saudi Arabia that may amount to some $2.5 trillion, according to Stephen Jen, a Morgan Stanley economist."

- good argument that NYC may finally lose it's leading position as the world's financial capital. If that happens, this city is looking at a lot of problems surfacing that Detroit only knows too well over the last 25-35 years.