Real Estate Crash thread

[dan_pdx]

If you’re really intrigued send me a PM and I will send you credentials for the actual MLS data, not the syndication. I think you can limit your search to sold listings although I’ve never tried it from the consumer side.

Thanks for the offer! What's the difference between MLS data and what we can see on something like Redfin or Zillow (which do allow you to search sold listings)?

Toadman, Lowsparkco, I actually wound up in Bend from now to the end of October for an extended in-law visit, want to catch up for lunch / beer / a mellow MTB ride?

[californiagrown]

Thanks for the offer! What's the difference between MLS data and what we can see on something like Redfin or Zillow (which do allow you to search sold listings)?

you just get all the listings, some arent listed on redfin/zillow, or are out of date. You dont have to be a realtor to get access to MLS, but you do need to pay a fee. IMO, just get a homie with a RE license to set you up with an email alert.

[Boosh]

Well. There’s always MV.

Nantucket is old money, MV is new money; both are exclusive and pricey as fuck but the former is definitely the land of the elite.

Was down there this summer for a long weekend and just for shits I browsed the real estate pages in the local paper; they were absurd. Cheapest property shown was a 2BR shack that was listed for $2.8M and looked like it needed quite a bit of work.

We hit the bars and I paid $63 for 3 vodka sodas - unless I hit the lotto I think I'll stick to the $3 highlife's at the townie bar down the street from now on instead.

[AdironRider]

Any NEK realtor mags (or friends of) here? Looking at buying a place.

[Toadman]

A dollar doesn't go as far as it use to.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget has lost nearly $40,000 in purchasing power over the last year, as mortgage rates have risen from around 6.5% in October 2022 to nearly 8% today. The glimmer of hope for the housing market: a small September uptick in new listings.

Mortgage rates hit their highest level in more than 20 years this week, pushing homebuyers’ monthly housing payments to all-time highs. A buyer on a $3,000 monthly budget, for instance, can afford a $419,000 home with a 7.7% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average on October 4. That buyer has lost $38,000 in purchasing power since last October, when they could have bought a $457,000 home with a 6.6% rate. And by that time, buyers had already lost a significant amount of purchasing power since the start of the year, as mortgage rates doubled throughout 2022: A buyer on a $3,000 budget could have purchased a $595,000 home with the 3.5% rates common at the start of 2022.

[boltonoutlaw]

Browning will be on their list within 5 years.

Fact.

There is a great burger joint in that town that could be the tip of the spear

[byates1]

Bassist from Pearl jam built a sweet sk8 park there as well.

[4matic]

The National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors wrote to the Fed “to convey profound concern” about the industry.

The groups ask the Fed not to “contemplate further rate hikes” and not to actively sell its holdings of mortgage securities.

[XXX-er]

I forget why ( something about bonds? ) but i'm pretty sure none of those partys mentioned in the artical ^^ can control interest rates

[Toadman]

The National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors wrote to the Fed “to convey profound concern” about the industry.

The groups ask the Fed not to “contemplate further rate hikes” and not to actively sell its holdings of mortgage securities.

Too little too late. The Fed is contemplating further rate hikes, and should also be looking at selling its holdings of MBS's. Now's a good time as any.

[4matic]

Where were they when banks and Fed were giving away money blowing up asset prices?

[byates1]

Exactly

[Brock Landers]

Remember that a liquid housing market is one of the two tenets of the Fed’s dual mandate

[Core Shot]

Sell MBS?

Lock in the losses? I don’t get it. It’s fake money anyway. Just let it sit on the balance sheet for a few years. Unless they’re planning on jacking rates more and for a longer duration.

[4matic]

I don’t believe Fed has sold anything yet. Just letting holdings roll off. That said, selling at a loss if they had too wouldn’t matter much.

[Brock Landers]

The Fed isn’t selling MBS. It isn’t buying, which has created a gap in “buyer”. Spreads have widened since the exit but there haven’t exactly been a lot of new mortgages to offset this demand/buyer gap either.

Fed will just let it roll off.

1 more hike this year, maybe. Rate cut projections keep getting pushed further out 2h24 now.

[lowsparkco]

Thanks for the offer! What's the difference between MLS data and what we can see on something like Redfin or Zillow (which do allow you to search sold listings)?

Toadman, Lowsparkco, I actually wound up in Bend from now to the end of October for an extended in-law visit, want to catch up for lunch / beer / a mellow MTB ride?

Sorry I missed this. I think californiagrown picked up my slack. The syndication of the data the big websites buy is the majority of it. They wrap it in a user interface that promotes clicking through to a broker that pays them for advertising.

Our user interface (which unfortunately isn’t great on the consumer side) is generally geared towards allowing brokers to organize listings in order to price compare for a market analysis. For example I might bracket all the 4/3’s with a pool that sold in a 3 month period in a certain zip code. Or isolate a neighborhood that was all developed by the same builder to get the average price per square foot.

What I was really alluding to, which we run into all the time, is adding two or three listings as comps that haven’t sold. That can skew numbers 10 or 15% easily. In real low inventory markets a homeowner might make a list of 10 properties that haven’t sold and be 30% off of real value.

Send me your number via a PM. I’d like to meet up for a ride or a beer. I got a 4 month old, so it ain’t always easy, but I’ll certainly try.

[zion zig zag]

The funny thing about this place is its whiplash change in character. The new people don't actually do much outdoor stuff that people here used to do. For most of them, the biggest outdoor activity they've done lately was standing in line for a table at King Sushi. It's like a spoiled kid who has all the best toys but mostly just watches TV.

Just catching up here, but this cracks me up and reminds me of a story my wife told me a couple of weeks ago. She is enamored with sandhill cranes and signed up for some type of viewing/education event with the Teton Regional Land Trust.

She said there was a couple in attendance who told her they are second homeowners in the valley who spend the summers here from Georgia. Apparently the lady had a can of bear spray that she held at the ready for the entire two hour tour of the river bottom while looking at cranes. My wife said she looked terrified and wondered if she had been outside any at all this summer.

[XXX-er]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10027665/...t-legislation/

Gona fuck up some money grubbers eh ?

has limiting how many STR's an LL can run ^^ been done else where

and how did that go ?

very recently the city of vangroovy put up the STR licensing fee by 900 %

[neckdeep]

Just catching up here, but this cracks me up and reminds me of a story my wife told me a couple of weeks ago. She is enamored with sandhill cranes and signed up for some type of viewing/education event with the Teton Regional Land Trust.

She said there was a couple in attendance who told her they are second homeowners in the valley who spend the summers here from Georgia. Apparently the lady had a can of bear spray that she held at the ready for the entire two hour tour of the river bottom while looking at cranes. My wife said she looked terrified and wondered if she had been outside any at all this summer.

I ran into a big ass black bear with cubs at the river just a few weeks back. What we really need is for some of these new millionaire migrants to get their faces ripped off. Maybe that will encourage them to stay on the other side altogether.

[Dantheman]

STR hilarity: https://www.ksl.com/article/50750031...es-controversy

TL; DR: Guy buys large suburban property, turns it into a STR advertised as being able to sleep 25 and perfect for a "corporate retreat," and can't seem to understand why the neighbors are pissed about it. "I don't want to be malicious. I want to be a good neighbor, but I also want to run a business. This is my livelihood." LOFL.

[skaredshtles]

STR hilarity: https://www.ksl.com/article/50750031...es-controversy

TL; DR: Guy buys large suburban property, turns it into a STR advertised as being able to sleep 25 and perfect for a "corporate retreat," and can't seem to understand why the neighbors are pissed about it. "I don't want to be malicious. I want to be a good neighbor, but I also want to run a business. This is my livelihood." LOFL.

[neckdeep]

The latest obscenity from the teton valley housing crisis. Trailers without wheels, basically, crammed in side by side amid commercial zone lots. $280,000 for a shoebox or so I was told.

What a joke. This valley has turned into a massive festival of greed.

[byates1]

Guessing the dirt is not part of the deal?

[rideit]

bUt tHeY hAvE bArNwoOd sIdINg!