Real Estate Crash thread

[Foggy_Goggles]

Classy bro. I was just saying it was windy. Nothing more. Nothing less.

A glass of red with dinner here and there. I dislike things. I try not to hate. You doing OK?

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[californiagrown]

. You doing OK?

Hahahaha, of course he's not.

[yeahman]

Classy bro. I was just saying it was windy. Nothing more. Nothing less.

A glass of red with dinner here and there. I dislike things. I try not to hate. You doing OK?

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

You're right as far as Montana goes. Livingston is the windiest city.

https://www.greatfallstribune.com/st...pect/92459142/

[dunfree]

Hahahaha, of course he's not.

Hope your participation trophies keep you warm

[mcphee]

the nickname came from them being bullshitters

Bless your heart.

[californiagrown]

Hope your participation trophies keep you warm

do you want to borrow them so you can warm your cold, lonely heart?

[dunfree]

Bless your heart.

“I’m an ignorant moron, but I deploy trite southern cliche”

[byates1]

I hate everyone.

[MontuckyFried]

have you never spent any fucking time in the eastern parts of Montana, Wyoming, or either of the Dakotas? Because that shits worse.

Not sure why this is even up for debate, but everybody ELSE here is right. Park County gets windy AF. I used to work in Eastern MT and ND. Yes, it gets windy as shit out there too, BUT on that stretch of I-90 between Livingston and Big Timber is where I've seen the most wind-flipped semis of any place I've driven. I've driven that route thousands of times and I can't tell you how many times I'd see a trailer or U-haul on its side. Bad enough that they have a sign by Livingston indicating when trucks need to pull off the main interstate and take the detour. You know not what you speak of on this one. The crosswinds there are next-level fierce.

You're right as far as Montana goes. Livingston is the windiest city.

https://www.greatfallstribune.com/st...pect/92459142/

Yup! That should settle it for the non-believer here.

Required viewing for dumbfree here:

[byates1]

I've pulled over and just sat there in that zone. Flag was about to rip off the pole.

[mcphee]

“I’m an ignorant moron, but I deploy trite southern cliche”

You’re doing great, lil guy.

[snapt]

Lost out on yet another house, offered full price, no concessions. Getting old.

We've been reviewing this at work in the context of WUI

https://firststreet.org/research-lab...surance-issue/

Insurance rates are getting crazy to unobtainable in certain areas.

[Harry]

Outside Magazine won't be happy until the last good mountain town is ruined.

Browning will be on their list within 5 years.

Fact.



Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Core Shot]

Lost out on yet another house, offered full price, no concessions. Getting old.

We've been reviewing this at work in the context of WUI

https://firststreet.org/research-lab...surance-issue/

Insurance rates are getting crazy to unobtainable in certain areas.

My renewal went up $900 this year. No wildfire risk.
But all the wildfires and hurricanes hit the reinsurance market and spread across all markets.

[schuss]

It's also construction/rebuild costs are through the roof.

[MontuckyFried]

Browning will be on their list within 5 years.

Fact.

LMAO. Yup! Once they catch wind of it, rich Bay Area ex-pats will flock there like the salmon of Capistrano. Further screwing over the Blackfeet as Browning gets gentrified with mustachioed hipsters riding fixies whilst sipping on craft triple IPAs and housing prices go to the moon there too.

[Bunion 2020]

Before I moved to Montana a buddy I worked with in PC said is was, "a dry and windy land full of dust and bugs". He lived in Butte 1/2 the year and now lives full time near Hamilton. That was in 91.

It grows on ya.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

I was living and working on a ranch west of Choteau when I saw my first honest to god ground blizzard. I was snowed in and couldn't get to the jobsite and just sat there looking out the window at the snow drifts marching by like waves on the ocean. From ground level up about 10 feet it was horizontal white out snow, above that it was clear as could be. Damnest thing I ever saw.

As for the Wyoming wind sock, up at the main ranch house one of those stupid rain chains got ripped off its tie down during another wind storm and proceeded to take all the stone veneer off the side of the house within its reach. Ranch hand said it looked like a bullwhip. The anemometer they had at the house stopped working when it hit 120 mph. Replacing shingles and fixing roofs was a full time job out there.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I though this was good food for thought. I had no idea about the credibility of the presenters. The question for me is not much equity do the STRs owners that can't cash flow have? Are a large percentage of STRs using projected rental income to qualify for financing?

[goldenboy]

Are a large percentage of STRs using projected rental income to qualify for financing?

Most of the time no. You can only use rental income if you already have rentals and have a history of it shown on your taxes. In that case the lender can look at it and say "yes, you know what you're doing" and count part of it (I think it's 70%).

[schuss]

A lot of people are going private markets to get financing (at least the people I know in the game), so at least some were definitely using projections.

[Toadman]

A lot of people are going private markets to get financing (at least the people I know in the game), so at least some were definitely using projections.

So, borrowing from Mom and Dad?

[Foggy_Goggles]

That is what I thought. So theoretically, if your STR stops cash flowing, you have other income streams, cash or access to equity to cover the mortgage? That podcast basics said that millennials are 60% of the gross demand for AirBnBs and that general inflation and student loans being payable is crimping their YOLO lifestyle.

I think this whole idea of "banks don't do liar loans post GFC so we won't have a rush of foreclosures" might be tested. On the local side, I think that plenty of people want to sell there second home because they perceive to peak as being in the rear view. They are not constrained by current mortgage rates because they don't have to buy another house. On the macro side, I think the fed and big money/politics/ruling class/machine will continue to have no fucks given for most of us.

In a time of unprecedented wealth inequality, I find is very telling that the suits can talk about wage growth like its a bad thing with a straight face. There is just a lot going on.

[Foggy_Goggles]

A lot of people are going private markets to get financing (at least the people I know in the game), so at least some were definitely using projections.

For sure the traditional metrics are distorted by the "Cash isn't really cash" thing. But as long as the risk doesn't sit with the tax payer, that's probably a good thing. I think the whole idea of housing costs coming back to earth is a least somewhat reliant on the pain landing in the "right" place. Wiping out equity incrementally and allowing the market to reprice downward seems like a better concept than tossing the keys back to the bank.

Disclaimer - I know nothing

[schuss]

So, borrowing from Mom and Dad?

Nah, more like small equity groups. I'd imagine there's a few that popped up expressly for this type of buy, as I imagine there's plenty of additional points to be made that can then be packaged up as STR mortgage backed securities.