Is the stock market going to tank?

[LeeLau]

un-fucking believable how many times the commercial carriers have entered bankruptcy in the last couple decades and the fuckers on wall street keep handing over OPM. Bout fucking time one of them ends up like this:

United and Delta went bankrupt in the early to mid 2000s. At the time commentators said that American would also be forced to go bankrupt because United and Delta, by filing ch 11 (and not ch 7 - which would end their existence) would have lower expenses and thus be able to out-compete American Airlines. To AMR's credit they lasted a lot longer than most people thought before having to go bankrupt. It's interesting that a pre-packaged ch 11 bankruptcy seems to now be a legitimate widely used tactic in industries with large legacy liabilities (pensions, union contracts) so that companies who do not go bankrupt are at a big disadvantage to companies that do go bankrupt. Airlines were one sector where bankruptcy is like changing socks. Steel manufacturers were another. Maybe car companies one day too.

Huge market bounce today --- everything looks dead - cat though.

[4matic]

Huge market bounce today --- everything looks dead - cat though.

10% low to high is a pretty healthy cat. Bears are trapped, sentiment is poor, and hedge funds are underperforming. Clear 1300 SPX and who knows.. Although, High Yield Corporates continue to lag. They need to have a big rally to confirm the equity move.

[Hugh Conway]

United and Delta went bankrupt in the early to mid 2000s. At the time commentators said that American would also be forced to go bankrupt because United and Delta, by filing ch 11 (and not ch 7 - which would end their existence) would have lower expenses and thus be able to out-compete American Airlines. To AMR's credit they lasted a lot longer than most people thought before having to go bankrupt. It's interesting that a pre-packaged ch 11 bankruptcy seems to now be a legitimate widely used tactic in industries with large legacy liabilities (pensions, union contracts) so that companies who do not go bankrupt are at a big disadvantage to companies that do go bankrupt. Airlines were one sector where bankruptcy is like changing socks. Steel manufacturers were another. Maybe car companies one day too.

The pension costs are just the latest trendy excuse from a sector that's perpetually fucked because of fuel expenses they can't mange well and debt (for a trendy little mint making op rightnow aircraft sale/leaseback). Of the 9 largest US carriers in 1990 all have declared bankruptcy; the only one of those 9 to exit the playing field without a merger or organized passing on of assets was Eastern airlines. This is zombie capitalism. Players need to exit the field and the field needs to be redesigned - or just reregulate certain routes and accept the consequences.

As an example of why things are fucked:
http://www.philly.com/philly/busines...are_hikes.html
as an industry they can't make money in competitive markets; the rest of society is unwilling to pay enough regularly to sustain the extortion fares.

[AdironRider]

Edit: should have quoted, this post is in reference to 4 matics and Jimmyc's posts on the previous page.

Its post fee and my parents have had to do pretty much nothing.

7% without lifting a finger and having absolutely zero knowledge of financial markets is a pretty sweet deal. This is the value financial planners provide, not shoot for the moon returns.

Again, for me and you guys, probably not the best returns, I know Ive seen better, but Im putting in multiple hours a week, went to school for this etc.

That isnt to say there arent some complete hacks out there, but find a good guy for the right client and the system works.

[Benny Profane]

And if he had inside information, hed be going to jail and youd most likely lose all your money. Have at it hoss!

Its not that hes some super fucking genius when it comes to financial planning, but hes good enough for two blue collar workers like my parents to pay the 1%, take the 7% average take home (thats over 15 years with this same guy), and never have to really put any effort into an area they know absolutely nothing about. Thats the point which you clearly seem to miss. For me and you it seems like a losing deal, but for most American who don't give enough of a crap to educate themselves on investments, its a pretty good deal.

Ignorance is no virtue, when it comes to your money. And, that guy kinda sucked if he charged 1% to get 7% in the rock and roll economy of pre '08.

[Brock Landers]

Ignorance is no virtue, when it comes to your money. And, that guy kinda sucked if he charged 1% to get 7% in the rock and roll economy of pre '08.

Get off the high horse. They'd rather pay someone 1% to manage their investments/financial futures than do it themselves because they do not know enough to do it themselves and its a pretty important aspect of life. Sure they could learn but not everyone can be the all-learned and spectacular-at-everything that it appears you are. And some people would rather just pay the 1%, save some time and worry, and do something else. 7% 4% 12%...all comes down to what time period youre looking at. But whatever number it was over whatever period I guarantee you outperformed

Do you fix anything and everything that goes on with your car? Or do you bring it to a mechanic? Why? Ignorance of fixing cars is no virtue.

[dapesche]

Ignorance is no virtue, when it comes to your money. And, that guy kinda sucked if he charged 1% to get 7% in the rock and roll economy of pre '08.

Ignorance is no virtue, when it comes to your money. And, that guy kinda sucked if he charged 1% to get 7% in the rock and roll economy of pre '08.

Benny, you and AR's parents are two totally different people. They are obviously very happy w/ 7% annualized. It fit what his parents wanted ... not what some stock jockey thought they wanted. That's essentially what is wrong with the brokerage industry --> guys with finance degrees thinking they can beat the market and promising clients huge returns. If most brokers actually stopped and listened to what their clients wanted, most client's would like 7% annualized w/ below average risk.

In Canada, I can think of only one fund that provided 7%+ annualized returns w/ a MER under 1.5% [Mawer - PM: Jim Hall]. Most equity funds are going to charge you over 2%.

Advisors have a purpose, but certain ones do not provide any value at all... Just saying is all.

[iceman]

Benny Boos Bambi.

[Benny Profane]

One word: Vanguard.

[iceman]

One word: Vanguard.

I'd add three more: Dollar-Cost Averaging.

Vanguard and DCA (monthly investments for 20+ years now) have worked out quite well overall. It's not the only thing we do but it's one of our pillars. Never have to think about it at all.

[Hugh Conway]

Do you fix anything and everything that goes on with your car? Or do you bring it to a mechanic? Why? Ignorance of fixing cars is no virtue.

Fixing cars requires tools aka capital equipment, a shop/place to fix the car, and some knowledge/handiness. It's rarely economical for a single vehicle. For simple maintenance (like an oil change) it's cheaper to go to a shop.


Those limitations don't apply to brokers/financial professionals who are generally dipshits with the world knowledge of a wet cocktail napkin. As continually shown in this thread.

[Moeghoul]

Agree with Vanguard comments. I never see Vanguard in the headlines. I like that.

[XXX-er]

Fixing cars requires tools aka capital equipment, a shop/place to fix the car, and some knowledge/handiness. It's rarely economical for a single vehicle. For simple maintenance (like an oil change) it's cheaper to go to a shop.


Those limitations don't apply to brokers/financial professionals who are generally dipshits with the world knowledge of a wet cocktail napkin. As continually shown in this thread.

If a probelm is simple enough maybe you can fix the car yourself but nowadays things are SO complicated its better to pay some one than really fuck it up trying to fix the car yourself, the same could apply to investment in that if you go with a simple strategey you don't need much of a financial professional

I always ask the question ... if a money proffessional is so smart why is he still working ?

[4matic]

I always ask the question ... if a money proffessional is so smart why is he still working ?

Why does a skier keep skiing? Same reason Warren Buffett still manages Berkshire. They enjoy the work, the money, or both.

[Hugh Conway]

Why does a skier keep skiing? Same reason Warren Buffett still manages Berkshire. They enjoy the work, the money, or both.

because that's oh-so similar to some shit financial advisor

[JimmyCarter]

Why does a skier keep skiing? Same reason Warren Buffett still manages Berkshire. They enjoy the work, the money, or both.

Well, yeah. That and a lack of starting capital.

[liv2ski]

10% low to high is a pretty healthy cat. Bears are trapped, sentiment is poor, and hedge funds are underperforming. Clear 1300 SPX and who knows.. Although, High Yield Corporates continue to lag. They need to have a big rally to confirm the equity move.

All of that is a joke when looked at in the larger picture. Please remember that the US is already over 100% Debt to GDP. The real GDP is much lower than stated. For one, the GDP includes gov't expenditures which consumes about a third of the GDP. Since Gov't expensives are a liability, not a revenue source, it should be subtracted. Tax revenues are down more than 20% since the 2008 collapse, yet GDP was not adjusted to reflect this contraction. The Real Debt to GDP is in the neighborhood of 150%. We are nothing more than Greece, hiding our real economic statistics with smoke and mirrors. And if that really matters to you, then look at www.USdebtclock.org which has US unfunded liabilities to GDP ratio of 775% now. And projected to be 811% of GDP in 2015 at current rates of growth.
Ya, short sighted rallies built around desperate Central Bankers will lead to huge short returns down the road. Kick that can bitchez, I have all the time in the World.

[LeeLau]

I get a kick out of the attention deficit TA bullshit spew (no offence 4matic) so keep it coming despite liv2ski bringing the reality bitch slap to the table

[4matic]

I get a kick out of the attention deficit TA bullshit spew (no offence 4matic) so keep it coming despite liv2ski bringing the reality bitch slap to the table

Well, Disney just upped its dividend by 50% and corporate earnings remain strong. Government this-governement that-Zerohedge blather. What does that have to do with Disney? Or IBM? Price is reality. Corporate earnings will remain strong. Plenty of risk that I'm well aware of but without risk you have no chance. I added to a MSFT position that I'm not too happy with and my BRK.B is hanging in there. I fully expect BRK.B to hit $100 in the next 18 months.

Guys like L2S are a dime a dozen. Preaching doom. They're everywhere. I like it though because stocks are going to end up higher in strong hands.

LeaLau, you know charts matter. They just do. It is a quarterly expiration month and option premiums are contracting. IF and it's a big if..employment and macro news are not terrible tomorrow odds favor a run to the November highs around 1300. Jmo..

[LeeLau]

I agree L2S has gotten perma-bearish but I'm a bit sympathetic to that because the general economy is complete shit imo. I just get a kick out of the flying wasabi candle, support blah blah calls on indices as a whole because its kind of ludicrous to think that the likes of you or me or any other douchebag on this board could make any kind of intelligent call about something that big. Look at it from an outsiders perspective; this is a skiing board. Not really an IRC channel for big swinging dicks. It's not just you btw but you're one of the few to stick around with the balls to discuss your calls

Charts matter for sure. Guess i just relate much more to dissection of individual companies as i'm a fundamentals person at heart.

[4matic]

discuss your calls
.

Buy on fundamentals>sell on technicals.

I'm underperforming the SP500 by 1.2% this year. Mostly because I had to pull 10% off right at the lows of the year to do a real estate deal and screwed up getting it re-deployed properly. I'm working, for me, a pretty high beta mix right now playing catch up so I'm relying on considerably more hope than I want to.

One of the more interesting things right now is action in the VIX. Personally, I think this is an over watched indicator and it is a short month but its virtually collapsing the last few days. Another strong rally and VIX will just fall apart.

Edit 12/02: VIX fell almost 8% this morning. Stunning.

[XXX-er]

Why does a skier keep skiing? Same reason Warren Buffett still manages Berkshire. They enjoy the work, the money, or both.

y know I got a buddy like that he loved the game, winning the toss for who buys lunch was a bigger thing than the 20K he lost before lunch but he retired early to build playgrounds in the middle east and hes up to 91, different game ... still a winner

[ass-to-mouth]

LOL...Unemployment falls to %8.6 because 315,000 people stopped looking for work.

Wall St bloodsuckers win again...

[huckbucket]

"Price is reality."


Holy SHIT!! I haven't laughed that hard in a long time. Thanks!

[liv2ski]

Guys like L2S are a dime a dozen. Preaching doom. They're everywhere. I like it though because stocks are going to end up higher in strong hands.

O, please. I only have to turn on CNBS to hear you and the clones going on all day long. (not that I would watch that shit anymore) And I only have to go back a few pages to hear you crying. So ya, go get em Tiger. Next time you get smoked, I won't even say I told you so.