Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

It could happen..

The only positives I find right now are:

1. Stronger dollar (some might say it's a negative)

2. Weak seasonal period.

3. Subsequent lows, March and June, have both fallen on quint derivitive expiration months near the expiration day.

4. S&P and NASDAQ holding well above previous lows.

[Toadman]

Resurrecting this thread to ask the finance Mags to help me understand Hindenburg Omens as mentioned here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/8218...a-market-crash

I looked up Hindenburg Omen on Wikipedia, but I am still not sure I am fully grasping the idea. Anybody got an easy way to translate this, a solid metaphor or a good example? Also - are these Hindenburg Omens for real or full of shit?

Looks like that Hindenburg Omen is in action. Oh the humanity!

[4matic]

Peter Kosta is a specialist on the NYSE and a regular CNBC commentator. He called the top and has been famously bearish. He just said if we hold the next couple days back up the truck and load up.. We'll see.

[Cono Este]

1260 is a magnet.

[4matic]

1260 is a magnet.

I wrote 1250 on the blackboard yesterday and dated it there is strong support down to about 1190. If that doesn't hold god only knows..

[ass-to-mouth]

Things really aren't that bad. The market is still up nearly 125% since the bull run started in 2002.

[Cono Este]

This shit has fresh lows written all over it. Russell holding up better though, so that tells you what they are thinking.

10700 dow

[Purveyor of Slack]

[ass-to-mouth]

Dow bottomed out at 7200 during the last recession. We got a LONG WAY to go before things get that bad. It'll be back over 13K by Labor Day. There are too many steakheads and bloodsuckers on Wall St. to not have it happen.

[Toadman]

Dow bottomed out at 7200 during the last recession. We got a LONG WAY to go before things get that bad. It'll be back over 13K by Labor Day. There are too many steakheads and bloodsuckers on Wall St. to not have it happen.

What great stimulus will create this DOW 13K run? You got a line on a new fuel additive that will suddenly boost MPG by 50%? Maybe a new fertilizer that will increase crop yields by 100%. You sitting on the mother load of oil fields as yet undiscovered somewhere in the Western U.S.?

[ass-to-mouth]

The steakheads will make it happen man. Have some faith.

[timvwcom]

Bump...

new stock market terms

CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use. [h/t RichL]

[Jer]

You sitting on the mother load of oil fields as yet undiscovered somewhere in the Western U.S.?

It's the Arctic - go North, young man, go north.

[MashedPotatoes]

bump and fuckity ouch.

[Game Over]

i was wondering when this would get the bump.

13000 by labor day?? ahhaha

[SeatownSlackey]

doesn't get much worse for a news weekend.....

Natural Disaster w/ Hurricane Ike
Econcomic Doom n Gloom 2x worse than before
and literally....a train wreck.

bout the only thing that is gonna cheer me up is buttloads of early season snow

[Ira]

Still going down...

DOW is more than 500 points down today:

-Lehman brothers declares Chapter 11 today
-Merril Lynch and BoA merging Today
-AIG needs ~$100B from the fed today
-Regulators shut 5 banks this weekend

the list goes on...

Another 500pts and we are lower than in the last 10 years and that is without inflation correction...

Boy am I glad I am still young enought to work 15 more years and not retire today...UGH...

Ira

[ass-to-mouth]

oil @ $90 bucks a barrel and sinking fast. we'll see $40-$50 a barrel by columbus day.

[Lizhnik]

oil @ $90 bucks a barrel and sinking fast. we'll see $40-$50 a barrel by columbus day.

Is this like your Dow 13,000 by labor day prediction? Thanks for your insight!

[Tye 1on]

oil @ $90 bucks a barrel and sinking fast. we'll see $40-$50 a barrel by columbus day.

Nah. Cold beer it stays above 50 thru columbus day.
But holy sinking stocks batman!!! Down another 100 pts in first hour, hoping for a rebound here pretty soon...

[ass-to-mouth]

Is this like your Dow 13,000 by labor day prediction? Thanks for your insight!

in another thread (i can't find it right now. feel free to search for it if you like) i predicted oil would be at a $100 by labor day. at the time oil was at $145 and everyone else was freaking out and saying it was well on it's way to $200. so i was 1/2 right anyways.

[Brock Landers]

i dont think theres much reason for a rebound just yet. maybe interest rates will get cut, but i dont think thats going to stop anyone from finding safety. better to earn a little less in bonds than to lose in the stock market.

AIG downgraded, doesnt look good without a huge loan fast. What the fuck took them so long for this big restructuring plan anyway- theyve been fucked for a year now, looks like its too late.

[neck beard]

Imagine being the capital or liquiidty manager at AIG today, or for the last few weeks. They are almost doomed.

1. screwed to begin with, struggling to fund
2. huge collateral calls on their CSA's triggered by downgrade.
3. now need even more liquidity... but who lends to a downgraded failure like AIG?

Bad thing is, they are counterparts to too many big financial organisations across the globe. The mess if AIG fails is mind boggling. I don't think the market can let them fail and will have to buddy-up to help them out.

I just washed some socks to keep my cash in.

[Tye 1on]

I just washed some socks to keep my cash in.

You're getting dangerously close to money laundering...

So here's a paragraph from today's WashPost:
"The New York Federal Reserve said this morning that it had put an additional $50 billion into the banking system -- part of a global wave of liquidity offered by its counterparts in other countries. The European Central Bank added around $100 billion to the system, Tokyo $24 billion, and London $36 billion. "

So what's it mean 'putting $ into the banking system'? So the New York Fed 'puts in $50 billion'. They just call up, say Citibank, and say yo, ya need a few billion today?

[neck beard]

Every morning most central banks conduct an Open Market Operation where, put briefly, they lend cash against eligible collateral (an ever widening list these days, which is a serious problem in it's own right). They put in enough cash to match demand and supply calculated for that day such that the price of cash hits their target interest rate, or so the theory holds. The theory requires all banks to lend surplus cash to other banks that need cash on the day. In times of crisis banks with surplus stop lending to banks with a need. They simply lend the money at a loss back to the central bank at the close. Its not supposed to be that way. So when this happens, CB's inject more cash by offering even more loans against eligible collateral. sometime they will re-enter the market later in the day to lubricate the system and restore confidence, thus encouraging long banks to lend. This should result in a closing interbank cash rate that day well below the target rate as the actual supply of cash well exceeds demand. What happens is that those who need the cash usually dont have enough fancy collateral to give to the CB anyway, so it requires healthy banks with spare collateral to step in and 'help out'. People (money market desks) dont help out during times like these, no price is worth the risk. So adding extra cash is becoming a less effective tool.

The Fed knows who needs cash and who has surplus. They also know who has spare quality collateral. They all but prompt them to take the cash on offer and pass it around.