Is the stock market going to tank?

**Deebased** · 03-15-2020, 09:01 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

We need anticipatory leadership from the top, not Fed bullying and playing catch up. Every day it’s going to get worse. Much worse. We need trillions for small businesses and working people, RIGHT NOW. Personal balance sheets will be decimated in days. There is no time to waste.

A lot of people are about to find out the gig economy was exactly that

**4matic** · 03-15-2020, 09:05 PM

Asian stocks not doing too bad. Futures might come off limit.

**Cono Este** · 03-15-2020, 09:28 PM

I feel like we will have another vol explosion coming. VIX at 100.

The bad news has been mostly local. If the fed starts banning travel, work, going out, and men in camo are telling you to turn around, then you can short the VOL.

Save some bullets for that one.

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**4matic** · 03-15-2020, 09:53 PM

Quarterly expiration this week. Up the limit down the limit. Like Expensive pork bellies.

**Stu Gotz** · 03-15-2020, 09:58 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Well then we got a problem.

Is there a precedent for this level of sudden economic disruption across the country? Like....ever?

**4matic** · 03-15-2020, 10:02 PM

Nikkei holding up well with BOJ put. Will ETF buying be added to Fed action.

**Ottime** · 03-15-2020, 10:50 PM

Not sure where to put this, but how would that Stafford Act being invoked on Tuesday or Wednesday requiring a two week national quarantine effect the markets.

**redacted user** · 03-15-2020, 10:52 PM

The thing with Japan is social unity allows for / requires some pretty experimental CB policies. Try to apply the same things in the USA and there's more downside skew. It probably wouldn't do much for employment either... even within the affected Cos. Pensions still need to change payouts and strategy either way.

**4matic** · 03-15-2020, 11:03 PM

Originally Posted by Ottime

Not sure where to put this, but how would that Stafford Act being invoked on Tuesday or Wednesday requiring a two week national quarantine effect the markets.

Could go either way. Companies have value almost like sovereign nations. With interest rates at zero there’s a good chance to stay above historical valuation of 16x. Still has a way to come in for that but who knows. Stocks might be the last best store of value.

**4matic** · 03-15-2020, 11:20 PM

Gasoline down 10%

**JimmyCarter** · 03-15-2020, 11:28 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

Is there a precedent for this level of sudden economic disruption across the country? Like....ever?

We’re gonna need a couple of wars to get it going again

**rideit** · 03-16-2020, 12:01 AM

Bearmageddon?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...ays-2020-03-15

**leftfield** · 03-16-2020, 05:05 AM

Any of you smart guys know why gold is tanking after such a massive rate cut?

**rod9301** · 03-16-2020, 06:04 AM

Originally Posted by leftfield

Any of you smart guys know why gold is tanking after such a massive rate cut?

I would say that people are selling anything to raise cash. But who knows?

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**Benny Profane** · 03-16-2020, 06:35 AM

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020...e-worsens.html

"The slow, too small, and too narrow sought-after responses don’t merely reflect being in a fog of information gaps. The speed and aggressivenesses of the lockdowns, and their drastic impact make the broad outlines all too clear. Our supposed leaders are in a fog of denial. They cannot fathom that so much of what they had come to accept as the normal and proper operation of our system will crumble if radical action isn’t taken soon, yet that very radical action will also result in changes they deem inconceivable, or worse, aesthetically unacceptable.

As we found out in the financial crisis, in tightly coupled systems, events can propagate across the various elements too quickly for anyone to intervene and limit the damage. The relentless drive for highly efficient systems, from just-in-time manufacturing to radically limiting inpatient time so as to reduce the number of hospital beds per capita, have created fragile systems that are now being tested to destruction. And we are learning, to our collective detriment, how many are wanting."

SB · 03-16-2020, 06:42 AM

Market lock down coming to a theater near you soon.

**mcsquared** · 03-16-2020, 07:35 AM

Originally Posted by SB

Market lock down coming to a theater near you soon.

Feel like everybody is going home early today. We hit the first circuit breaker right at the open, right?

**Benny Profane** · 03-16-2020, 07:37 AM

Bam. Autograph, please.

**Cono Este** · 03-16-2020, 07:38 AM

Feels like when Enron closed at 10, then never opened again.

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**SKIP IN7RO** · 03-16-2020, 07:39 AM

Originally Posted by mcsquared

Feel like everybody is going home early today. We hit the first circuit breaker right at the open, right?

within seconds

**Benny Profane** · 03-16-2020, 07:41 AM

Oh. We're cool. Looking forward to pent up demand!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/trea...isis-ends.html

**4matic** · 03-16-2020, 07:44 AM

Futures hit 2380 on Friday. Still 100 points above the low on the second halt. Double the current decline and we get 2250 on the 20% halt. I'd suspect some bounce off the 20% limit.

My bond fund is performing poorly. That's another bad sign. Fed supposed to be helping.

**4matic** · 03-16-2020, 07:49 AM

Previous low in the SP500 is taken out. Fresh low 2409. A long way to go for the next halt.

**Meathelmet** · 03-16-2020, 07:50 AM

4matic et all : What tools/laws does the State of Emergency (or Martial Law) give to the government regarding the market?

Can Gov for example close the exchange, for long etc? Hitting the tripwires on consecutive days might force for some action, but what could it be as there are very few (no?) precedences?