Real Estate Crash thread

[sirbumpsalot]

Tacoma's not suburban. It had a larger population than Seattle in 1880 and it wasn't until 1900s that Seattle passed it up. Because of this, Tacoma has an abundance of old houses and buildings that make it interesting. If you like old buildings, I suggest going to a show at the Elks Temple, the crown jewel of the McMenamens chain:

Attachment 448147

Before the reno:

Attachment 448148

Tacoma is a cool city. Suburb of Seattle?...only because of Seattle sprawl. San Diego would be a "suburb" of LA if not for Camp Pendleton getting in the way.

[east or bust]

That's because you don't jack off to urban planning design like I do.

Sig worthy

Helping AS work on his Tacoma slogans

Tacoma: Fuck off Keanu!

Tacoma: bigger than Seattle in 1890!

Tacoma: A daily reminder of the atrocities of the white man!

lol

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...osts-1.6030951

artical about converting offices in Calgary to residence with a buncha # crunching, I think Calgary has a lot of empty office space cuz of the oil industry tanking

there was also an artical i can't find where most of the office space ( not necessarily in Cow town ) that was looked at by a guy who looks at that kind of thing was not suitable

[Tips^Up]

WFH/remote working kills office demand. Rent prices drop, vacancies increase, income plummets, debt coverage ratios go negative. Commercial note reaches the balloon, time to refi at double the previous mortgage rate and half the value. Owners declare bankruptcy, walk from the vacant assets. Banks, investors, you, me, everyone with a 401k hold these toxic assets, trigger for the next recession gets pulled!

The only one to benefit will be Steve Carrell, as he has experience in both The Office and the Big Short.

[ötzi]

Steve owns a General Store, they sell penny candy there, he'll be able to ride it out.

https://marshfieldhillsgeneralstore.com/

[406]

WFH/remote working kills office demand.

I would have thought that to, but the company I work for has been looking for a bigger place in northern City of San Diego for over a year now and keeps getting scooped. Should be pretty standard office: About 100 employees, plus bunch of labs, couple conference rooms, and server room. I would have thought there would be lots of options. Rent in the place we are in had a major increase.

Developers seem to be building new office space too...and on what was open space :-(. Seems crazy to me.

[nickwm21]

Converting office to resi sounds fantastic when said in the mayors office… but anyone with any experience in construction or design would know it won’t work economically unless we change how we permit and occupy buildings. Commercial and residential buildings are incredibly different; structural design, fire/life safety, energy code, mechanical systems, etc… not to mention a remodel of this scale would trigger “substantial alteration” rules in any jurisdiction…

If it was simple as adding some demising walls, bathrooms, and mailboxes - there would be a booming business of these ongoing…


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[dunfree]

Everyone wants to live like this - 100square feet for a family of 6
https://sfstandard.com/housing-devel...san-francisco/

[Garbowski]

I used to be a leasing agent in Chicago and we had a ton of downtown condo conversions people bought thinking they could rent them. This was early 2000s but they always had a 'highend flipper' vibe (so do most highrise condos I suppose) but the main problem was the layouts were shitty since there was so much space with no natural light. Maybe it will change, but even in Manhattan, downtown office districts are not the most happening places to live- biggest selling point was rolling out of bed and being in the office in 15 minutes.

[XXX-er]

Why Calgary's betting $450M it can convince owners of empty towers to change

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ings-1.6039274

those crazy Calgarians think they can turn offices into apts

[BCMtnHound]

Why Calgary's betting $450M it can convince owners of empty towers to change

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ings-1.6039274

those crazy Calgarians think they can turn offices into apts

People won’t actually live there, but just crash on the floor now and again as they work the patch, and to keep their AB plates while actually residing in BC.

[XXX-er]

A 30 % vacancy rate in Cow town

I had a GF who kept her Alberta plates & an address for mail while living in BC, she said insurance was cheaper and business tax was less but I think it was a whole lot of wanking around & redirected mail going astray

[garyfromterrace]

A 30 % vacancy rate in Cow town

This isn't news. It's been like that since 2018 (that's 5 years). It was just a matter of time before the city had to do something (refer to your previous linked article) to incentivize tower owners to do something. It's been a wasteland downtown for half a decade.

[XXX-er]

5 years later you guys still have done nothing

[lowsparkco]

5 years later you guys still have done nothing

It reminds me of a planning meeting.

Excuse me sir, do you have any actual expertise or educational background in planning and development?

Hell no, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn last night.

[garyfromterrace]

5 years later you guys still have done nothing

What's this "you guys" shit?

[ötzi]

You'd think that the buildings sitting empty and losing money for their owners would be enough incentive for them to change things if the city and provincial governments would just get out of the way on it. This seems like a giveaway of the taxpayers' money that the owners knew would come so they waited for it.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Here is a question: What restrictions or incentives could be but in place such that a +/- 60unit "for rent" apartment complex wouldn't be attractive as a "second home".

This is real. I live about 20minute drive from Winter Park Ski Area and about 3 minutes from US 40 in a zoning overlay called something like High Density Residential or someshit. It is served my a Water and San District with capacity.

The Karens and the "preverse the quality of the neighborhood" losers are of coarse opposed even though the property has been platted as such for decades. The potential developer says he needs to charge something like $2400 for a 2 bed. At that price point, wouldn't front range families just rent it and use it as a second home?

It seems to me like this is the type of building we should incentivize. The guy is asking for no handouts. And he does want to have it be workforce housing. I'll let you know how it plays out.

[schuss]

I'd say just go to the public hearings so there's a YIMBY to counter the NIMBYS

[ötzi]

Here is a question: What restrictions or incentives could be but in place such that a +/- 60unit "for rent" apartment complex wouldn't be attractive as a "second home".

It's a good question, I'm sure it's been addressed elsewhere before. I don't have an answer off the top of my head but it's worth thinking about. Maybe google knows, I'll ask it later when I have some time.

[garyfromterrace]

You'd think that the buildings sitting empty and losing money for their owners would be enough incentive for them to change things if the city and provincial governments would just get out of the way on it. This seems like a giveaway of the taxpayers' money that the owners knew would come so they waited for it.

Agree

[Foggy_Goggles]

I'd say just go to the public hearings so there's a YIMBY to counter the NIMBYS

Ha...they come to my meetings. I'm the Treasurer of the Water and Sanitation District. We will see how it moves forward.

[lowsparkco]

It's a good question, I'm sure it's been addressed elsewhere before. I don't have an answer off the top of my head but it's worth thinking about. Maybe google knows, I'll ask it later when I have some time.

Well, I don’t think there’s anything that stops you from writing it into the CC&R’s - something like, must be primary and sole residence. You would deter a lot of folks who are simply rule followers, and then you’re stuck enforcing it to those willing to try and ignore it. As far as something you can do as a community to force it as a long term stipulation, I assume you would have to pass it into law or a condition of use. Perhaps that the CC&R stays in place and is enforced or the entire property is considered in violation of approved use.

[Foggy_Goggles]

At least in Colorado, I don't think the HOA level is where really anything should be handled due to the statutory limitations and the general Jr. High School Bake Sale mentalities that are pervasive.

Plus, in this instance at least, the HOA (almost by definition) is the "I got mine, don't change the character of my neighborhood, rules are for you, outrage is for me, retired/WFH Mega Karen" crowd.

[snapt]

Here is a question: What restrictions or incentives could be but in place such that a +/- 60unit "for rent" apartment complex wouldn't be attractive as a "second home".

This is real. I live about 20minute drive from Winter Park Ski Area and about 3 minutes from US 40 in a zoning overlay called something like High Density Residential or someshit. It is served my a Water and San District with capacity.

The Karens and the "preverse the quality of the neighborhood" losers are of coarse opposed even though the property has been platted as such for decades. The potential developer says he needs to charge something like $2400 for a 2 bed. At that price point, wouldn't front range families just rent it and use it as a second home?

It seems to me like this is the type of building we should incentivize. The guy is asking for no handouts. And he does want to have it be workforce housing. I'll let you know how it plays out.

Deed restrictions based on AMI at the time of purchase as well as primary residence/workforce requirements. It's tough when a developer goes it alone and has to charge a higher rate, if they can come up with tax credits from LIHTC etc it usually helps bring down costs.