Real Estate Crash thread

[Toadman]

What's in Duluth that a billionaire wants to buy up the housing stock?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...100300952.html

Kathy Cargill — wife of billionaire heir James Cargill II of the eponymous global food giant — has been spending millions of dollars buying up homes around Duluth’s sandbar.

However, residents in Minnesota's port city responded with concern, as fears over what Cargill plans to do with the properties — and how it might affect the local supply of single-family housing and their taxes. The unease only worsened after Cargill demolished a few of the homes, telling a local reporter they were “pieces of crap” and she “couldn’t imagine living in any of them.”

[MultiVerse]

No idea what Cargill is up to, but FWIW Duluth is suggested as the best place to live in the event of massive global warming.

[dan_pdx]

After reading the article, Kathy Cargill sounds like a megabitch. I thought most of those Richie Rich types were smart enough to keep their contempt for 99% of Americans under wraps.

[4matic]

•Applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% for the week and were 9% lower than the same week one year ago.

•Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home decreased 0.2% from the week before and were 16% lower year over year.

[dan_pdx]

•Applications to refinance a home loan fell 2% for the week and were 9% lower than the same week one year ago.

•Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home decreased 0.2% from the week before and were 16% lower year over year.

Sounds like a great time to sell a house, amirite?

[4matic]

Updated homes in my hood still sell. Less desirable that need updates sit for months. Especially at $2mm and above. Lots for new luxury build are selling well.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Redfin is trying it. Not sure if it's fully baked yet.

Redfin, based out of Seattle, has yet to grab any real share of listings there.....a clearly very tech savvy city. They captured less than 1% of market share in 2023 nationally. Younger tech savvy buyers and sellers are still opting to use actual human real estate agents.

[mcski]

Collusion. We def have some shananigans here in sf block Redfin in the past

[yeahman]

I saw a full-page ad from a RE firm in the Big Sky newspaper last week proclaiming that "Big Sky is presenting a buyer's market." Along with a bunch of expensive listings.

"Presenting" made me chuckle.

[4matic]

Lemonade cancelled my homeowner insurance in 95762. Said I needed a new roof. It’s a 50 year concrete roof. Friend in Ukiah got the same cancel notice from a different insurance company. Getting dire. Will be largely a state run insurance fund if it keeps up.

[schuss]

Because it's easier to shrink than to go through CA rate processes. Any increase over 7% can be forced to a trial to justify it by any party, even if the department of insurance doesn't agree. This means that rate increases often take way longer and cost way more to do than in other states. Not to mention the climate changes leading to increased wildfire risk and how hard that is to price/predict.
This is an older article, but illustrates some of the challenges that's leading many to exit the market (slowly or quickly) - https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...ocess-76110864

Bias check: I work for a major insurance corp, so take that as you will.

[4matic]

Just talked with a friend in Alameda. His sister got cancelled in San Leandro after a drone flyover.

[dunfree]

After reading the article, Kathy Cargill sounds like a megabitch. I thought most of those Richie Rich types were smart enough to keep their contempt for 99% of Americans under wraps.

“Married into secretive billionaire family” is the polite phrasing. Doesn’t have much taste in homes, here’s one of them. Indoor/Outdoor living that’s usable a couple months a year.
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...7_M75167-79302

[Harry]

What's in Duluth that a billionaire wants to buy up the housing stock?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...100300952.html

I just drove down that street yesterday. I did see a number of tear downs happening. That beach is all public, I am sure she is going to throw some money around trying to get it closed. Good luck bitch.


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[Toadman]

Get it now, before it's too late!

The typical U.S. monthly housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,721 during the four weeks ending March 24, up 10% from a year earlier. Housing payments are at a record high because of the one-two punch of elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices. Mortgage rates remain elevated near 7%, and the median home-sale price is up 5% year over year to roughly $375,000, just about $9,000 shy of June 2022’s record high.

Many sellers are trying to take advantage of rising prices by listing their home. New listings are up 15%, the biggest increase in nearly three years, and the total number of homes for sale is up 6%, the biggest increase in nearly one year.

Increased supply is bringing back some demand, which is the main reason price growth remains robust. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 14% from a month ago, and pending home sales are just 1% lower than they were a year ago, the smallest decline since the beginning of the year.

“High mortgage rates aren’t deterring buyers as much as they were last year; a lot of people want to get in now before prices go up more,” said Miami Redfin agent Rachel Riva.

[Kevo]

I really thought that RE was going to reset with rate increases, but I no longer believe it.

I now believe that sub 3% interest rates are going to lock up inventory permanently. There is such a huge number of people who will never, ever have to sell their houses at 2.625% 30 year rates.

I also believe that we're shooting for a no landing scenario- we can't service federal debt at interest rates that will actually control inflation. I think stagflation is the path of least resistance if the US ends up in an economic downturn.

[Bunion 2020]

I saw a full-page ad from a RE firm in the Big Sky newspaper last week proclaiming that "Big Sky is presenting a buyer's market." Along with a bunch of expensive listings.

"Presenting" made me chuckle.

FWIW I am seeing some BIG developers beginning to pump the brakes on projects for this late summer/fall.

[AdironRider]

Life goes on and people eventually change jobs or move. This isn't the first environment where interest rates rose, it probably won't be the last. Eventually life catches up with everyone and the majority won't be carrying sub 3%.

Interest rates jumped over 10% between the late 70 and early 80s. I'm sure that sucked at the time for boomers but look at them now, everyone hates them and thinks they rigged the system.

[Toadman]

FWIW I am seeing some BIG developers beginning to pump the brakes on projects for this late summer/fall.

I see no slow down here in Central Oregon. It's full speed ahead with several new SFH and multi home developments going in. Several new apartment/condo complexes being built. RE is local, and right now the RE market is hotter than Arizona in August.

[highangle]

Life goes on and people eventually change jobs or move. This isn't the first environment where interest rates rose, it probably won't be the last. Eventually life catches up with everyone and the majority won't be carrying sub 3%.

Interest rates jumped over 10% between the late 70 and early 80s. I'm sure that sucked at the time for boomers but look at them now, everyone hates them and thinks they rigged the system.

It's not that at all, we know they're dumb enough to give their money and votes to break the system. They've already done it twice.

[Bunion 2020]

I see no slow down here in Central Oregon. It's full speed ahead with several new SFH and multi home developments going in. Several new apartment/condo complexes being built. RE is local, and right now the RE market is hotter than Arizona in August.

OK but those were most likely planned for, approved and financed last fall. RE market here is red hot as well.

[yeahman]

OK but those were most likely planned for, approved and financed last fall. RE market here is red hot as well.

This week the same RE company put an ad in Explore Big Sky claiming Bozeman is now a buyers market.

[Bunion 2020]

Maybe they know something?

Cause that RE company is one I was citing.

But, the projects that are being delayed span a wide spectrum in both location and type.

[Kevo]

It would be interesting to hear WRG's take on whether Bozeman is a buyer's market.

[4matic]

Everything marked down in my hood. If they don’t sell at these prices there’s a significant leg down coming. Part of this may be can’t get fire insurance even in areas where the chance of wild fire is almost zero.